Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

Raining pretty good here. Hi Res short term guidance did well on this. The Globals pretty much did not see it at all. Amazing...

I guess that is what happens when the subtropical jet is tightening up and about to go on 130+knots next week. Even a dry air mass from a trof can tap into it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Some of the models don't do well with the SJT at all. Historically i think it has always done poorly post cold fronts. Does this have to do with lack of data in the pacific? Mexico?

[Ralph's Weather]

This El Nino has produced some amazing results since the STJ finally kicked in three weeks ago. I have probably had nearly 15 inches since then. All of this post-frontal rain bodes well for winter.

[TheProfessor]

The 11th-12th really needs to be watched, looks like it could be a decent severe outbreak from Texas to the Great Lakes, it already has a slight risk in day 5. If there were to be any increase in instability we could have a dangerous outbreak on our hands, if proper mixing were to occur I wouldn't be surprised if there were some violent tornadoes somewhere. of course we are still 5 days out so a lot could change.

[Ntxw]

El Nino? Hardly noticeable at all!

Clearly is the dominant weather phenomenon across the planet, nothing even comes close. In the area of the world that produces the most energy and heat

[TheProfessor]

El Nino? Hardly noticeable at all!

Clearly is the dominant weather phenomenon across the planet, nothing even comes close. In the area of the world that produces the most energy and heat

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Do you think the North Pacific that's still fairly warm could cause some awesome storm systems in the 2nd half of Winter? Like just enough cool air mixing in with a stream of moisture causing a large area of the U.S to see a 1-2ft snow storm?

[TheProfessor]

it's 50 degrees here and it feels so good.

[ravyrn]

Have areas w/ D4 drought severity on the U.S. Drought Monitor ever completed poofed in a two week period like portions of the D4 in ETX did?

[Ntxw]

Do you think the North Pacific that's still fairly warm could cause some awesome storm systems in the 2nd half of Winter? Like just enough cool air mixing in with a stream of moisture causing a large area of the U.S to see a 1-2ft snow storm?

I honestly don't know. I think we try to hope the north pacific will save us from the Nino, it may but the EPO has been more positive than negative. Months ago I stated the gulf of Alaska would cool and take a beating from the Nino bringing low heights into Alaska thus far it has. Most of the country has roasted in the long term as result. We can hope, but these indexes show their hands in the fall. The past two falls the EPO was very strong negative and continued through winter. The El Nino is bigger. But there is still some warmth up there so at least it will help prevent the +EPO from getting out of hand I think, will it support a severe -EPO? Probably not. I think the fate of the AO will be key especially for the southern US. The STJ will be there, if the AO is more negative storms will draw cold. For the northern US you would definitely want ridging to retrograde into Alaska as winter goes on.

[Ntxw]

For those discouraged (at the lack of very cold air) all is not lost. I hate using this analog, I really do but the events transpiring is not unlike 2009. Currently there is no severe -EPO progged so don't look for Arctic blasts, but over in the Atlantic sector and Baffin Bay/Hudson Bay there are signs of raised heights. This was a feature 2009 was famous for, blocking and extreme blocking for storms. The EPO joined the fun in December that year hoping we see the same. I'm looking forward to snowstorms! Not ice storms this year if the blocking resides there.

[Brent]

I'm not really discouraged at the lack of really cold air tbh... plenty of warm Novembers and honestly the pattern ahead looks seasonal at worst... not like we're gonna be baking like most of October and it's going to remain stormy... and the GFS is still dumping cold in the LR btw.

Things could be a lot worse...

[Ntxw]

I'm not really discouraged at the lack of really cold air tbh... plenty of warm Novembers and honestly the pattern ahead looks seasonal at worst... not like we're gonna be baking like most of October and it's going to remain stormy... and the GFS is still dumping cold in the LR btw.

It does. To be honest, I'm not that interested in it's surface depiction of cold air. What I really like from it is the bowling ball storms, systems that deepen as they come out. I like what I see in that department from 500mb. Warm now but a month later that's a blizzard. Way different than the sheared systems coming out of the past few years.

[Brent]

Hello there, just imagine this a bit further south in a month or two

[Ralph's Weather]

I ujderstand yiur dislike of using 09/10 NTX, but it seems lime as good of an analog as we have for thus never before seen SST pattern. Don't want to start a climate discussion, but the overall warming oceans will likely lead to stormy and cool winters.
Before any of that though it sounds like we could have fall sever weather outbreak this week. That is not my strong suit so I will let others lead the discussion on that.

[TheProfessor]

I ujderstand yiur dislike of using 09/10 NTX, but it seems lime as good of an analog as we have for thus never before seen SST pattern. Don't want to start a climate discussion, but the overall warming oceans will likely lead to stormy and cool winters.
Before any of that though it sounds like we could have fall sever weather outbreak this week. That is not my strong suit so I will let others lead the discussion on that.

The wind patterns are there for a severe outbreak, it just depends on how much moisture(for people further north in U.S) how big will the warm sector be, and how much instability we can get, if we can get even a minimal CAPE of 500 J/Kg of a large area then there could be a wide spread out break provided good mixing. I believe it was last night 0z GFS Run that had some 80kt winds at the 850 level in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana and then shifting eastward the next day.

Edit: looks like it could be bad in the Missouri Arkansas area.

[Ntxw]

JB shared thoughts of Euro seasonal and CFSv2. I have no beef with it I think his ideas are good and at 500mb this is very clear cut it is a southern plains to mid Atlantic negative anomaly. Storm track past month or so supports. The question is how/where will cold air be?

[ndale]

For those discouraged (at the lack of very cold air) all is not lost. I hate using this analog, I really do but the events transpiring is not unlike 2009. Currently there is no severe -EPO progged so don't look for Arctic blasts, but over in the Atlantic sector and Baffin Bay/Hudson Bay there are signs of raised heights. This was a feature 2009 was famous for, blocking and extreme blocking for storms. The EPO joined the fun in December that year hoping we see the same. I'm looking forward to snowstorms! Not ice storms this year if the blocking resides there.

I have a question for you Ntwx since you study weather patterns. I am not sure I want Arctic fronts because here (Austin area) they just produce freezing drizzle. In your opinion what kind of pattern will it take to get cold air deep enough over us to produce snow?

[WeatherGuesser]

Why do people want cold and snow? It's makes no sense to me for people to hope for discomfort and misery.

[gboudx]

Because it doesn't happen much down here. I don't hope for freezing rain and ice however.

[Ntxw]

I have a question for you Ntwx since you study weather patterns. I am not sure I want Arctic fronts because here (Austin area) they just produce freezing drizzle. In your opinion what kind of pattern will it take to get cold air deep enough over us to produce snow?

The -AO is important for snow. -EPO provides some of the biggest arctic outbreaks you will find but often they are shallow very cold and very dense at the surface. The -AO warms up the Arctic and cools the mid-latitudes (not just at the surface but above which is key) through lower heights. Lower heights = colder aloft = snow. It's not a coincidence 2009-2010 was mostly snow events coupled with the most severe -AO on record. You need a good alignment of both. If -AO and no EPO then it often you see events that snows a loft but rains at the surface. Too much EPO with no -AO and it's ice.

It is not this for every event, behavior of storms account too. But that's how I would use the indexes in seeing the pattern is ripe for which.