Florida Weather

[MetroMike]

Still rather anemic convection this late afternoon.
As shown on blitzortung.org


Never seen a summer here so devoid of it.
Ho hum boring.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS is showing highest accumulated precipitation over Florida to be over the interior and east coast through the next 7-10 days, save this weekend where the west coast could see some more activity due to east to southeast steering.

The spring/summer pattern of semi-persistent Eastern CONUS troughing likely due to a strengthening El Niño continues.

[MetroMike]

Have not seen this possibility for a while




Lets see if this sticks, would be surprising.

[MetroMike]

Anyone on this board from west central or southwest Fl knows what a wacky summer it has been.
The big Heat Dome centered in the western Gulf has been a main feature affecting us.
Every day here is the same, incessant sunshine,light winds couple of spits of rain if you are lucky,heat advisories more often.
I will go out on a short limb and say the traditional rainy season has been Canceled!
The trend is your fiend-yes I wrote fiend.
I believe the drought area will need a Depression or slow moving Tropical Storm to just start to get us up from 14 in below normal rainfall.

I am a hot weather summer fan but Mother Nature has handed us a big torch and a big SCREW.

[HurricaneBelle]

Anyone on this board from west central or southwest Fl knows what a wacky summer it has been.
The big Heat Dome centered in the western Gulf has been a main feature affecting us.
Every day here is the same, incessant sunshine,light winds couple of spits of rain if you are lucky,heat advisories more often.
I will go out on a short limb and say the traditional rainy season has been Canceled!
The trend is your fiend-yes I wrote fiend.
I believe the drought area will need a Depression or slow moving Tropical Storm to just start to get us up from 14 in below normal rainfall.

I am a hot weather summer fan but Mother Nature has handed us a big torch and a big SCREW.

Yeah it's amazing to pull up the radar in the early evening on an August night and not see any returns within 40-50 miles (or more) of Tampa.

[MetroMike]

Anyone on this board from west central or southwest Fl knows what a wacky summer it has been.
The big Heat Dome centered in the western Gulf has been a main feature affecting us.
Every day here is the same, incessant sunshine,light winds couple of spits of rain if you are lucky,heat advisories more often.
I will go out on a short limb and say the traditional rainy season has been Canceled!
The trend is your fiend-yes I wrote fiend.
I believe the drought area will need a Depression or slow moving Tropical Storm to just start to get us up from 14 in below normal rainfall.

I am a hot weather summer fan but Mother Nature has handed us a big torch and a big SCREW.

Yeah it's amazing to pull up the radar in the early evening on an August night and not see any returns within 40-50 miles (or more) of Tampa.

Never seen any summer like this in my many decades here.

[psyclone]

What's so strange about this summer is the exceptional warmth...which didn't start until the very end of June but when it did it has been extraordinary. Prior to that may and June were pleasant...in fact low 80's and low humidity over the memorial day weekend made that the most comfortable memorial day weekend I can ever recall. But from the end of June to current...we have paid a mighty price for that pleasing start. Today we have a sliver of severe to extreme drought on the west coast of Florida. Never have I seen such an event at this time of year. Even more odd is the dearth of nocturnal or morning convection over the extremely warm waters. Generally, once shelf waters exceed 88, a blowoff of deep convection fires and cools us and the waters down. I have never seen that not happen...until this year. So the water is now warmer than I have ever observed. I suspect high heights keeping the entire column warm and therefore stable has contributed to this unique setup. Hopefully the oceanic temps that surround us are defused safely. A severe tropical event or extreme rain event is very possible otherwise. We are sitting on a pile of dynamite.

[chaser1]

100 °F was the official record breaking high temp for Orlando today

[psyclone]

Looks like a wet pattern may finally establish itself over the peninsula and target the parched west coast. This should provide substantial relief from the extreme heat and drought...should it happen..

[gatorcane]

Looks some relief is on the way from the heat advisories and excessive heat warnings we have been seeing across the state the last several weeks as the Euro is showing below normal temps for a change from about Wed-Sat:

[gatorcane]

Looks like relief from the heat advisories for Florida is still looking likely starting Thu and maybe lasting through the weekend with some below normal temps for a change

[HurricaneBelle]

Finally getting some decent rain in the Pinellas County the last couple of days and it's been coming early to help keep the temperature down. This weekend the inverted trough which could develop over the GoM next week moves across the state to give us a rare instance of our "normal" easterly flow and late day storms.

[gatorcane]

Nice to not be under a heat advisory for a change with the elevated easterly winds and overcast skies with periods of rain from the tropical wave which passed through this weekend. Looks like we will have breezy to even windy conditions at times for much of this week across SE Florida as the pressure gradient tightens between lower pressures to our east and an expanding High pressure over the Central US. So no heat advisories this week it looks like with almost a taste or “fall” with the stronger east to ENE winds off the Atlantic, but the temps will still be quite warm in the afternoon into the low 90s away from the coast and upper 80s at the coast.

[canes92]

It'd be nice if we could have global cooling.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a nice NE breeze will develop over this weekend for the east coast of Florida due in part to a pressure gradient between the remnants of Idalia and high pressure to the west. That should keep temps a bit cooler than what we have been seeing with temps slightly below normal for a change, along the east coast. Should be a good weather weekend for much of the state with isolated showers and storms moving from the east coast to the west coast.

[MetroMike]

Looks like a nice NE breeze will develop over this weekend for the east coast of Florida due in part to a pressure gradient between the remnants of Idalia and high pressure to the west. That should keep temps a bit cooler than what we have been seeing with temps slightly below normal for a change, along the east coast. Should be a good weather weekend for much of the state with isolated showers and storms moving from the east coast to the west coast.

Not really cooling it off here on the west coast but dewpoints will drop into the 60's they say for several days which is another odd thing about this summer.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a nice NE breeze will develop over this weekend for the east coast of Florida due in part to a pressure gradient between the remnants of Idalia and high pressure to the west. That should keep temps a bit cooler than what we have been seeing with temps slightly below normal for a change, along the east coast. Should be a good weather weekend for much of the state with isolated showers and storms moving from the east coast to the west coast.

Not really cooling it off here on the west coast but dewpoints will drop into the 60's they say for several days which is another odd thing about this summer.

Yep the low dew points looks to be a near record for South Florida as we see a taste of fall.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1254 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023

The first whispers of what could be called "fall" weather in
South FL will be felt starting today as a dry air mass advects
over the area in the wake of a backdoor front. How dry you ask?
Well, this morning`s 12Z MFL sounding measured a PWAT value of
~1.0", which is in the <1st percentile (nearly the driest on
record) for this time of year. Dew points across much of the
region will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s through Monday, a
marked change from the upper 70s and lower 80s of the past few
weeks. With all this dry air in place, chances for precipitation
will remain limited (in the 10-20% range) each day, with only a
slight chance for thunderstorms on Monday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s each
afternoon during the short term, but with the lower dew points,
heat indices will remain in the low to mid 90s as the long
holiday weekend comes to a close. So not really "fall" fall, but
hey, we`ll take what we can get!

&&

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[gatorcane]

Beautiful “fall-like” weather across South Florida today with low humidities and low-top cumulus, similar to a November day just 10 degrees warmer.

I think Idalia moving into the Atlantic helped bring in some of this nice weather with the tight pressure gradient bringing in those comfortable NE winds. Maybe hurricane Lee could do something similar but looks like it will be recurving too far to the east to impact the sensible weather here. Should see some good wave action as Lee passes by well to our east on his journey north.

[canes92]

Has been more pleasant with the east breeze and slightly lower humidity. Need more consistent rain.

[gatorcane]

Looks like Lee will bring some nice NE breezes and usher in some lower dew points for Florida later this week into the weekend