MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SD AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 040055Z - 040330Z
   
   MONITORING FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND INCREASING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB THIS
   EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED LATER
   THIS EVENING.
   
   AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT...PLENTIFUL HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED
   SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   ACROSS SOUTHERN SD/CENTRAL NEB. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY INITIATE AND/OR
   DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM SD INTO NEB VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
   ATOP OF A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER...FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN
   INCREASING S-SW LOW LEVEL JET AND GLANCING ASCENT FROM NORTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   
   STORMS TONIGHT WOULD BE ROOTED ABOVE A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
   PER 00Z NORTH PLATTE/OMAHA OBSERVED RAOBS SUPPORTIVE OF A LARGE HAIL
   THREAT. RED WILLOW NEB PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM SIOUX
   FALLS SD AND NORTH PLATTE/HASTINGS NEB IS INDICATIVE OF STRONGLY
   VEERED HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-45
   KTS...FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...
   
   42829986 43339932 43359729 42689670 40949744 40459846
   40459995 40710028 41830033

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND...CNTRL/SERN SD AND NERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429...430...
   
   VALID 040342Z - 040515Z
   
   PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...FORCING THE COLD
   FRONT BISECTING THE DAKS AND NEB EWD.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 45 KT
   SLY H85 JET HAS BECOME SITUATED FROM CNTRL KS INTO NERN NEB...WITH A
   WEAKER BRANCH FARTHER N IN THE ERN DAKS.  STRONGER TSTMS WILL
   EVENTUALLY BUILD SWD THROUGH SCNTRL/SERN SD AND JOIN THE RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS ERN NEB.  TSTMS FARTHER N WILL
   CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE FEED OF UNSTABLE PARCELS BECOMES
   INTERRUPTED BY THE ACTIVITY FARTHER S.
   
   H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 45 KT JET CORE WAS BEGINNING TO
   SHIFT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SCNTRL SD/CNTRL NEB LATE THIS
   EVENING.  THIS WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES INTO THE
   SUPERCELL RANGE.  THUS...ELEVATED UPDRAFTS MAY ROTATE GIVING LARGE
   HAIL.  OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN NEB/SERN SD WHERE TSTMS WILL TEND TO
   BACKBUILD AND TRAIN.
   
   WS429 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...BUT WFO/S WILL HAVE THE OPTION TO
   LOCALLY EXTEND THE WW TEMPORALLY WHERE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...THE
   SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS WS
   430.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...
   
   41299890 44500126 47810196 47729829 43839751 41259644

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1060
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB INTO NERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 040442Z - 040615Z
   
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING/MOVING SSEWD
   INTO SERN NEB AND POSSIBLY FAR NERN KS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. TRENDS IN STORM INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.
   
   AXIS OF MODERATE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE MAXIMUM IN
   EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN
   ADDITION...SSWLY LLJ HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL KS/NEB
   AND IS SUPPORTING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   INTO NERN NEB. LATEST RUC INDICATES LLJ WILL GRADUALLY VEER LATE
   TONIGHT AND LIKELY SUPPORT SSELY MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS
   ALONG WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS INTO MORE OF SERN NEB AND FAR
   NERN KS.  MODEST LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT MAY
   MAINTAIN THREATS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS WITH MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.
   
   ..EVANS.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   39119631 39959741 41019768 41479723 41379644 39739535

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 AM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB....NE KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 040731Z - 040930Z
   
   A TRAINING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN NEB WILL LIKELY
   TRANSITION SLOWLY SWD INTO NERN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
   MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN SERN NEB IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
   MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STORM
   COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND SWD AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE
   ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. ACCORDING TO
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED JUST TO
   THE EAST OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND IN THE LEFT FRONT
   QUADRANT OF AN APPROACHING 45 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THE CROSSING JETS
   ARE CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF STORM ACTIVITY NEAR A
   MAXIMUM IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
   RATES IN PLACE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH
   SUPERCELLS AND/OR STRONG MULTICELLS THAT DEVELOP.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   38779678 39399731 40629803 41249789 41469736 41499679
   40509591 39159539 38679620

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1059 AM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
   APPALACHIANS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041559Z - 041800Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO APPARENT MARGINAL/LOCALIZED NATURE OF
   SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AS A FAIRLY
   VIGOROUS IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE BASE OF A BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH
   ACROSS THIS REGION.  LIFT/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ENHANCED BY
   ADDITIONAL INSOLATION AND WEAK WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE FLOW
   /FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY.  AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND MIXED
   LAYER CAPE INCREASES THROUGH THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...AN INCREASE
   IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.
    THOUGH WEAK CAPE PROBABLY WILL LIMIT VIGOR OF UPDRAFTS...
   THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED REGIME
   BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
   HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE
   LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...
   
   38768446 38808245 38828098 38508020 37627998 37058047
   36218115 34968286 34538537 34838695 35558853 36418855
   36448730 36838609 36598499 37238377 37888388

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1063
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 AM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IDAHO INTO SW MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041648Z - 041845Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A WW
   WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   WITH STRENGTHENING INSOLATION...MID-LEVEL COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF
   SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET /50 KT AROUND 500 MB/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE ACROSS A RATHER BROADER
   AREA FROM EASTERN OREGON THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
   THIS IS BEGINNING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF BOISE...IN WARM
   PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. 
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING/INTENSIFYING
   THROUGH MID DAY...WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING SPREADING ACROSS
   THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL IDAHO TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST
   MONTANA DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.  THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.
   WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRENGTHENING FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME
   FAVORABLE FOR BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO
   CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...WHICH MAY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF
   MISSOULA THROUGH THE BUTTE/DILLON AREAS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 21Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
   
   45881578 46441485 46601368 45841199 45301149 44501170
   44001218 43581310 43251425 43451543 43961608

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041727Z - 041930Z
   
   ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA. A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   VIA PERIPHERY OF EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
   -9.0 C AT TAMPA BAY/-10.0 C AT MIAMI AT 500 MB PER 12Z OBSERVED
   RAOBS...AND -8.5 C PER THE 15Z CAPE CANAVERAL RAOB. PRECIPITABLE
   WATER VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1.2-1.6 IN. ADJUSTED OBSERVED
   RAOBS/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.
   
   GIVEN UNIFORM LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   PENINSULA...SEA BREEZE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NEAR THE EASTERN COAST.
   AS STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...MODERATE CAPE/MODEST LAPSE RATES IN PRESENCE OF WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED/PULSE-TYPE
   DOWNBURSTS/HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   29918236 30178153 28208071 26638016 25758042 26198129
   26368152 27628205 28428224

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1065
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND/EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041921Z - 042145Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO FAR WESTERN MN...WITH AN ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH...CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION CONTINUES TO QUICKLY ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
   INTO FAR WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD HAS BECOME RELATIVELY
   AGGRESSIVE OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE EASTERN 3-4 TIERS OF
   COUNTIES IN EASTERN SD/EASTERN ND. ADDITIONAL HEATING/MODEST MASS
   CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS /PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 20Z-21Z/...WITH STORMS POSING AN
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AVAILABLE 1250-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN
   THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/ADEQUATE
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
   OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS ARE GENERALLY
   AROUND 25-30 KTS...ALTHOUGH APPARENTLY SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS
   EASTERN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SD. ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF EXPECTED
   SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   48549864 48819625 48509528 46449537 45159585 43499707
   43939841 46629880

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ID INTO WRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431...
   
   VALID 042022Z - 042145Z
   
   CONTINUE WW 431.  AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO...SOUTH/EAST OF MISSOULA THROUGH THE BUTTE/DILLON AREAS
   OF MONTANA.  DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME...STRONGER MID/UPPER
   FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT
   FALLS/LEWISTOWN/HARLOWTON AREAS...WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION
   IS ONGOING.  DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION AND INSOLATION HAVE CONTRIBUTED
   TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...AND...DESPITE RATHER LOW SURFACE DEW
   POINTS /45-50F/...MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY PEAK
   HEATING.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
   DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT
   FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED
   SEVERE THREATS.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL REGIME MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF WW 431.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN WARM PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AND...AT
   LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON IN FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO INTO
   PARTS OF WESTERN WYOMING...INCLUDING THE YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK
   AREA.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
   
   47221292 47891128 47280933 45570862 44000927 42971124
   42071322 43321426 44911270

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1067
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0714 PM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432...433...
   
   VALID 050014Z - 050145Z
   
   ...SEVERE SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL MT
   THIS EVENING...
   
   WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER CNTRL MT THIS EVENING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING NEWD AT
   ROUGHLY 45KT AND SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF WW432 BY 02Z.
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG THIS LINE AND THIS SHOULD
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND
   WEAKENING LAPSE RATES RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AND LESSENING WIND
   POTENTIAL.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   44711030 46901049 49241243 49510920 48660641 46370539
   44740645

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0945 PM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432...433...
   
   VALID 050245Z - 050345Z
   
   ...SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING ACROSS ERN MT...
   
   SQUALL LINE IS GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER ERN MT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLS AND INSTABILITY WANES.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOMENTUM OF
   ORGANIZED LINE SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE ND BORDER
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES.
   HIGHER WIND GUSTS NOTED ALONG THE SQUALL LINE EARLIER THIS EVENING
   ARE NO LONGER BEING OBSERVED AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR
   DOWNSTREAM AREAS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
   
   45050709 46950680 48840766 48500588 45610548

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 PM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 050315Z - 050445Z
   
   ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
   
   
   SFC WIND SHIFT IS MOVING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 20KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS AND SHOULD APPROACH THE COAST AROUND 06-07Z TIME FRAME.
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
   AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE SCALE
   FORCING/WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AIRMASS.  LATEST
   DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000J/KG
   ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG-ISOLATED
   SEVERE MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.  PROXIMITY TO COAST AND MARGINALITY OF
   EVENT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...
   
   31578236 32698154 33817988 34507901 35507746 34827604
   31118060

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...FAR NE CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 050716Z - 050915Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WRN NEB AND
   FAR NE CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EWD
   ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
   ASCENT ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS ECNTRL WY INTO FAR WRN NEB WITH A
   SMALL MCS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD APPROACHING TROUGH. THE ACTIVITY IS
   FORMING NEAR A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. AS THE LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN NEB AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN A THREAT
   FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...
   
   40460108 40440280 41210369 41950375 42760284 42790093
   42140005 41070011

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...SRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 050826Z - 051030Z
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN OK WITH
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN KS THROUGH 10Z. A
   THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
   OF WATCH ISSUANCE LATE TONIGHT.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
   UPPER-RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
   INCREASING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK AND RUC ANALYSIS
   SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED STORM
   INITIATION WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPANDING SEWD ALONG AN AXIS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN AND ECNTRL OK LATE TONIGHT. IN
   ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40-45
   KT RANGE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   34669517 34539652 36129855 37119928 37549916 37829891
   38009805 37439682 36349561 35219482

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...FAR NRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...
   
   VALID 051122Z - 051245Z
   
   AN MCS ONGOING ACROSS SWRN NEB WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
   SCNTRL NEB AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NRN KS WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL
   THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THROUGH 14Z. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM OF
   WW 434.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN MT
   EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN WY. THE MCS IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH NEAR A LOW-LEVEL JET AND ON THE NRN END OF A POCKET OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. DUE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...THE
   MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO
   SCNTRL AND SERN NEB. PROFILERS IN SRN NEB SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
   AROUND 35 KT SUGGESTING THE SUPERCELL THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE STORM COMPLEX
   MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTERS THE
   WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN NEB.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   39719751 40059968 40400032 40960027 41639977 41719931
   41419805 40859696

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1073
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...ERN OK...WRN AR...NE TX...NW LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435...
   
   VALID 051526Z - 051700Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.
   ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM.
   
   AS SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS...EASTWARD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
   SOUTH IS STRENGTHENING INHIBITION THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
   AND OKLAHOMA.  THIS HAS SUPPRESSED EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED
   NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   WARM ADVECTION ON EDGE OF CAP. MID/UPPER FORCING TO MAINTAIN
   DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT...PERHAPS...IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH
   WEAKENING CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ON EDGE OF CAP FROM PARTS OF EASTERN
   KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  THROUGH
   18-19Z...ANY ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE
   INVERSION LAYER...BUT MODERATE SHEAR AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE PROBABLY
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...
   
   36479504 37619513 39119614 39709522 37249342 34859322
   32689339 32019478 31909653 32919652 33559565 34209529
   35279502

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MN...SE ND...ERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051822Z - 051945Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   INCREASING MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
   TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AT THE
   PRESENT TIME.  BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHEAST OF WEAK SOUTH CENTRAL
   SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW THROUGH AREAS EAST/NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN
   INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  WITH
   MAXIMUM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND
   2000 J/KG.  INHIBITION IS BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE...AND FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL
   INSOLATION AND ONSET OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. 
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   JET NOSES ACROSS SURFACE TROUGH...ON WESTERN FRINGE OF SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET. INITIATION OF STORMS MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS
   SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ADDITIONAL RAPID CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 20-21Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
   
   50969569 51009438 50259383 49529489 48429475 46949498
   46019535 45089629 44239702 43399719 43109851 43769931
   45089787 46509750 48159688

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051836Z - 052100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NAMELY ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
   PENINSULA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MICROBURSTS/HAIL.
   A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL
   PENINSULA...WITH SEA BREEZE CONFINED TO NEAR THE EASTERN FL COAST
   PER UNIFORM LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS
   ACROSS FL APPEAR RATHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH -11.0 C AT 500
   MB IN 12Z JACKSONVILLE OBSERVED RAOB AND -8.0 C PER 12Z MIAMI
   RAOB/-10.0 C PER 16Z CAPE CANAVERAL RAOB. HOWEVER...MODEST AIRMASS
   DRYING HAS OCCURRED PER OBSERVED CHANGES IN UPPER AIR/SURFACE DATA.
   
   MODIFIED OBSERVED RAOBS IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   EASTERN FL PENINSULA. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST LAPSE
   RATES/VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...IT APPEARS THAT MICROBURSTS/
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...IN
   ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   25998092 26808151 27838163 30018239 30548146 27808062
   26438008 25678035 25708073

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1076
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB...INTO NE CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051936Z - 052030Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING...AND A WW IS LIKELY SHORTLY.
   
   STRONG HEATING TO AROUND 90F HAS OCCURRED ALONG/TO THE WEST OF
   PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  THIS
   HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH CAPPING
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO BECOME SUPPRESSED BY
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
   CHERRY COUNTY...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE/INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS AS
   COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MERGE INTO SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
   SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL FAIRLY LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
   NEBRASKA...BUT INSTABILITY/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH 21-22Z.
   BEYOND THAT TIME...THROUGH AROUND 06/00Z...DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
   SOUTHWARD TOWARD BROKEN BOW/GRAND ISLAND/KEARNEY...WHERE MOISTURE IS
   INCREASING ON SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO
   DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BENEATH 30-40 KT
   NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   41980052 42399957 41909836 41289829 40779869 40450022
   40290177 39940284 40460379

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052210Z - 052315Z
   
   ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN PORTIONS
   OF CO AND SWRN KS.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY...
   
   CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AND IS SPREADING SEWD OFF THE
   PALMER DIVIDE TOWARD CROWLEY COUNTY CO.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED
   BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...BUT WITHIN SUFFICIENT NWLY FLOW FOR STORM
   MOVEMENT.  IN ADDITION...WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS TAIL END OF UPPER
   TROUGH AXIS IS BRUSHING THIS REGION WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   VEER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
   FORWARD PROPAGATION WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SERN
   CO...POSSIBLY INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF KS LATER THIS EVENING.  LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   38640353 38450073 37370056 36990204 37580412