Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

[Texas Snowman]

Good cell blowing up SW of Lawton, pretty good warmth in that sector - was 77 in Vernon to the SW last time I checked.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 101949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OK/NCNTRL TX
AR/NWRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
SERN TX INTO KS/MO/SRN IL...

...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...MS VALLEY...

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CONTINUES ALONG WRN FRINGE OF RAPIDLY
MOISTENING WARM SECTOR FROM NWRN TX...NNEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. LATEST
DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES MINIMAL INHIBITION EXISTS ALONG AN AXIS
FROM NEAR ABI TO FSI WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW ROUGHLY
9C/KM. CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING RAPIDLY ALONG THIS
DESTABILIZING AXIS AND SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING NE OF FSI TO WEST
OF PNC. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM OKC AND FTW STRONGLY SUPPORT RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...ABOUT 1000 J/KG HIGHER WITHIN
WARMER ENVIRONMENT JUST WEST OF I-35. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL BE
SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE COLD PROFILES OBSERVED...ROUGHLY -20 AT
500MB. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS NEAR 60F DEW POINTS ARE
INGESTED INTO THESE UPDRAFTS.

JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM NERN TX INTO CNTRL AR...WARM ADVECTION IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY
RESPONSIBLE FOR EXPANDING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. 18Z SOUNDING FROM
SHV DEPICTS STRONG SHEAR THROUGH MID LEVELS AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

LATEST THINKING IS LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 70KT
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR WHERE
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING. AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE
LOWER 60S THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MDT RISK REGION. LATE
TONIGHT STRONG FORCING WILL ENHANCE STORM MERGERS AND PERHAPS ASSIST
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS OVER THE MS VALLEY. IF THIS
OCCURS THEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN
MO/AR INTO NRN LA.

..DARROW.. 02/10/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1955Z (2:55PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[RL3AO]

Those cells to the immediate south are interrupting the SVR cell. New cell near Frederick could become interesting.

[RL3AO]

New cell near Frederick could become interesting.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
156 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 156 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF CHATTANOOGA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS OF 60
MPH ARE LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CACHE...CHATTANOOGA...EASTERN
WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE...INDIAHOMA...LAKE ELLSWORTH...
LAKE LAWTONKA...MEDICINE PARK...MEERS AND NORTHWESTERN LAWTON.

[Texas Snowman]

I thought the same thing, that the southern cell was perhaps too close to the northern cell for it to go really haywire.

That Frederick cell is all by itself however for the moment...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking NE from the Frederick radar towards OKC, I think I see evidence of decent strength rotation just SW of OKC...



Edit- NW to NE

[RL3AO]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX/SE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102016Z - 102215Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE...WITH A TORNADO WATCH
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS BEGINNING TO SETUP
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS...INITIATED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A CONTINUING LOW
LEVEL JET...IS GRADUALLY GAINING STRENGTH AS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ERODE
AND SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY INCREASES. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES TO AROUND 200-250. 18Z
DFW SOUNDING SHOWS CAP HAS ERODED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR DECREASING EASTWARD TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX/SE OK CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN...A WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED...WITH LARGE HAIL THE
INITIAL THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..LEVIT.. 02/10/2009

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
OKC017-109-102045-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0001.090210T2017Z-090210T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
217 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 217 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA CITY...4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MUSTANG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BETHANY...MUSTANG...NICHOLS
HILLS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CITY...THE VILLAGE...WARR ACRES...
WESTERN EDMOND AND YUKON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 132 AND 145.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 122 AND 127.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT... THIS STORM LIKELY CONTAINS
DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR LARGER.

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANYTIME. TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE... MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER.
OTHERWISE... MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3563 9739 3537 9773 3537 9776 3544 9791
3573 9756
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 223DEG 35KT 3545 9775

$$
WR

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
217 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 217 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA CITY...4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MUSTANG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BETHANY...MUSTANG...NICHOLS
HILLS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CITY...THE VILLAGE...WARR ACRES...
WESTERN EDMOND AND YUKON.

[RL3AO]

[Ed Mahmoud]

No fun if you live in the path, but watching one of those on radar, and watching rotation develop, is quite interesting.

[CrazyC83]

Coverage from OKC (requires installing Microsoft SilverLight)

[RL3AO]

2nd cell to the south is looking interesting.

[CrazyC83]

From that video, it seems like there is a funnel cloud there...

[Crostorm]

[CrazyC83]

Additional coverage from OKC

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK SWD INTO N TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 8...

VALID 102033Z - 102200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 8 CONTINUES.

STORM COVERAGE/SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM CENTRAL
OK SSWWD INTO WRN N TX...WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS NOW ACROSS SWRN
AND INTO CENTRAL OK. ONE SUPERCELL STORM NOW JUST WEST OF THE OKC
METRO AREA HAS BECOME QUITE INTENSE...WITH A PRONOUNCED HOOK ECHO
AND MESOCYCLONE. ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADO THREAT IS
ALSO INDICATED ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF OKC.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING WITH TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO N TX. WITH INSTABILITY --
AND PARTICULARLY THE SHEAR PROFILE -- EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER
WITH TIME...THREAT SHOULD EXPAND IN AND NEAR THE WW AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GOSS.. 02/10/2009


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32060027 33539961 35589844 36279778 36189627 33159765
32109820 32060027

[RL3AO]

0222 PM HAIL 2 W YUKON 35.51N 97.79W
02/10/2009 E2.50 INCH CANADIAN OK BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED BY BROADCAST MEDIA

[Texas Snowman]

Well defined wall cloud and golf ball size hail in the Yukon area...

[CrazyC83]

KOCO: Wall cloud on the tower camera