Severe weather outbreak: June 17 - 19

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 600 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SARATT...OR
13 MILES NORTHEAST OF UNION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BULLOCK CREEK AND ADAMSBURG...
LOCKHART...
LEEDS AND CARLISLE...
CORNWELL...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC / CNTRL AND SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 466...

VALID 182202Z - 182230Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN GA
EXTENDING EWD INTO THE SC COASTAL PLAIN. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES OR SO.

RADAR MOSAIC AT 22Z SHOWS INTENSIFYING LINE OF STORMS IN THE SC
UPSTATE. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN
CNTRL GA. WITH A MOIST/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /SBCAPE IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF SSEWD MOVING BROKEN CLUSTERS OF
STORMS...A DMGG WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY ENSUE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 06/18/2009


ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

[Dave]

[brunota2003]

Everything has been fairly quiet, thus far, thankfully *knocks on wood* not a single tornado reported thus far.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
533 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 531 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES WEST OF
WYNDMERE...OR 28 MILES WEST OF WAHPETON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WYNDMERE AT 540 PM CDT...
BARNEY AT 600 PM CDT...
MANTADOR AT 610 PM CDT...
MOORETON AT 620 PM CDT...

INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKER 21 AROUND 625 PM CDT...
AND MILE MARKER 20 AROUND 630 PM CDT..

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
538 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
CENTRAL WILKIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 2 MILES EAST OF
GALCHUTT...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAHPETON...MOVING TO THE EAST
AT 20 MPH.

* THIS STORM ALSO HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BRUSHVALE AT 550 PM CDT...
EVERDELL AT 625 PM CDT...
FOXHOME AT 630 PM CDT...

[CrazyC83]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/09061819_OBS/

Davenport: cap is at about the 925mb level.

[RL3AO]

The high fell about 4 degrees short of forecast. That didn't help remove the cap any.

[Bunkertor]

Just checked some data from IA. There is 4000+ MLCape in place. Aditionally cINHs mostly -50 and below and Li´s are ~-10. 2m ThetaEs mostly above 350

I wonder why there is not even a MD...

[RL3AO]

Just checked some data from IA. There is 4000+ MLCape in place. Aditionally cINHs mostly -50 and below and Li´s are ~-10. 2m ThetaEs mostly above 350

I wonder why there is not even a MD...

There was. It said watch likely. Maybe they are worried about the cap.

[Bunkertor]

Seems the Davenport baloon has delivered enough information. Otherwise some more would have gotten airborne, i think.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
615 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WAHPETON...
SOUTHERN WILKIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 612 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES WEST OF
WAHPETON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WAHPETON AT 625 PM CDT...
BRECKENRIDGE AT 630 PM CDT...
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF DORAN AT 640 PM CDT...

[Bunkertor]

Radio feed http://asx.abacast.com/radiofm-kbvbfm-32.asx

for


959
WFUS53 KFGF 182330
TORFGF
MNC111-167-190030-
/O.NEW.KFGF.TO.W.0008.090618T2330Z-090619T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FERGUS FALLS...
EASTERN WILKIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 627 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FOXHOME...OR 13 MILES WEST OF FERGUS FALLS...MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CARLISLE AT 710 PM CDT...
9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTHSAY AT 715 PM CDT...
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF FERGUS FALLS AT 720 PM CDT...
ELIZABETH AT 730 PM CDT...

INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN MILE MARKER 39 AROUND 720 PM CDT...
AND MILE MARKER 57 AROUND 715 PM CDT...

[RL3AO]

RUC showing 700mb temps at 12 to 15 degrees over Northern Iowa. Nothing will get going with that.

[Siberian Express]

RUC showing 700mb temps at 12 to 15 degrees over Northern Iowa. Nothing will get going with that.

Watch Fillmore County

[PurdueWx80]

there's an increasingly agitated and growing CU field over far southeast MN and southwest WI, with some returns showing up on radar now. this is the area to watch for rapid supercell development. the best tornado indices are still over IA under the cap, but they should continue to spread northeast this evening as the low level jet ramps up & convergence increases. if these storms do fire up in the next hour or two, they should rapidly become severe and then follow the CAPE gradient southeast into southern WI and northern IL.

if they don't develop (i think a few will), the main show will be a derecho that grows out of the storms in western MN. the mod risk still looks good in that case, but it will mainly be for wind unless a few supercells develop in the warm advection wing ahead of it. a couple of mesoscale models are showing this sort of thing, but the timing is way off, as has been the case quite a few times this season. if you check out a WV loop, notice how tropical moisture is spreading up the west side of the ridge. that connection plus the already moist air in place means tonight's storms will produce some very efficient rainfall. wouldn't be surprised to see some 5 or 6+" reports in parts of the corn belt or upper midwest.

i still think it'll be a very active night. that wave over UT/CO is promising for tomorrow, too.

[Bunkertor]

[RL3AO]

0z soundings still show a slight cap at MSP. Much stronger at DVN.

[RL3AO]

MDT trimmed and nudged north. 15% tornado risk dropped to 10.

[RL3AO]

Storm popping in NE Iowa.