Historic Multi Day Tornado/Flooding Event 4/23-28/2011

[TwisterFanatic]

Gonna have to watch the potential for a over-night event for Eastern Oklahoma. Just listened to a briefing from Tulsa. Said there could be Significant Tornado event during the late night hours over Eastern Oklahoma as a 2nd Jet Streak comes in later tonight. Lots, and lots of turning of the winds. They used the term "life-threatening".

[TYNI]

Wow

This has been a non-stop late April for bad weather news in these areas. Stay safe everyone.

[CrazyC83]

This is so threatening that I am making 11th hour changes to hotel reservations for a planned vacation - leaving TOMORROW...

[GCANE]

CAPE 5000, LI -12
Cap looks to be breaking

[GCANE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261811Z - 262015Z

THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR. A RELATIVELY LONG LEAD
TIME/DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID AFTERNOON.

WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...EAST OF A NEAR I-35 CENTRAL TX
DRYLINE...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A SLOW NORTHWARD-RETURNING
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH DFW
METRO INTO SOUTHERN AR...HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF LITTLE CINH. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MIDDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
LIKELY-ASSOCIATED DEEP MIXED CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT NOW EVIDENT
ACROSS EASTERN NM/NORTHWEST TX PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD ATOP THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING LARGE
HAIL/TORNADO THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF STRONG
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY/ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHEAST OK.

..GUYER.. 04/26/2011

[srainhoutx]

Stunning Hazard probs with the PDS Watch. Seriously, everyone in and near that Watch need to be very aware this afternoon/evening.

[GCANE]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF WACO
TEXAS TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST TX...SPREADING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHER INTENSE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TX AND ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD. BOTH AREAS OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. WIND FIELDS WILL
BE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND STORMS TRACKING NEAR THE
EXISTING BOUNDARY FROM TX INTO AR WILL HAVE ENHANCED SHEAR AND THE
RISK OF STRONG/LONG-LIVED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 95/90 with the PDS watch, just as I predicted. EXTREMELY dangerous situation. Probably will need another PDS watch later to the north and east.

[CrazyC83]

Farther north.

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAD AXE
MICHIGAN TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW 215...

DISCUSSION...AS A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS...SEVERE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...GUYER/HART

[RL3AO]

Going to be a hell of a 36 hours.

[GCANE]

Probs are 95/90 with the PDS watch, just as I predicted. EXTREMELY dangerous situation. Probably will need another PDS watch later to the north and east.

AR concerns me especially when it turns dark.

[CrazyC83]

I'll have to monitor closely tomorrow from my car. Won't be able to post much if at all until evening.

[GCANE]

Big ring on Houston radar.

[RL3AO]

I'll try to post some gr3 images tonight. Its 45 and raining out. I have nothing better to do.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the dryline SW of DWF as the Upper Air disturbance in NW TX pushes E bound...

[GCANE]

Initiation around Texarkana

http://weather.wdtinc.com/popout/index. ... 26&O=10056

[GCANE]

Strong STP bulls-eye over Gilmer / Mt Pleasant Area.

http://weather.wdtinc.com/popout/index. ... 26&O=10279

[CrazyC83]

Looks like with no cap and that much instability, anything could become tornadic very fast.

[srainhoutx]

FWD watching cell that was near Hillsboro...

[CrazyC83]

New watch coming. EITHER it could be a long-term PDS watch, or a short-term watch for the initial activity with the PDS watch later.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS TO THE MO
BOOTHEEL/WESTERN KY/FAR SOUTHERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261941Z - 262115Z

CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS FOR A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS
EASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
WITHIN THE HOUR.

OVER THE PAST HOUR...VISIBLE SATELLITE REFLECTS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WITH STRONG HEATING
/ALREADY NEAR 80F OR ABOVE/ OCCURRING ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...MODIFICATIONS TO A SPECIAL 18Z LITTLE ROCK OBSERVED RAOB
SUGGEST LITTLE CINH REMAINS. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES LATER TODAY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE
INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING /AS A LOW
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MARKEDLY INCREASE/...INCREASING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL NECESSITATE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 04/26/2011


ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34979191 37388892 36878799 34198882 32999157 33999186
34979191