Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31
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wx247
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- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
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It would not surprise me at all to see an expansion in the moderate risk. High risk still seems possible, too. Man... it is going to be a long night.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
wx247 wrote:It would not surprise me at all to see an expansion in the moderate risk. High risk still seems possible, too. Man... it is going to be a long night.
It makes sense. Some of the numbers I'm seeing on other boards are showing more parts of MO setting up better for a valid expansion of the Moderate Risk and Tornado %s.
Stay safe.
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wx247
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- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
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PDS Tornado Watch coming for OK:
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
^ TEXT refering to pic above posted by WX247 ^
Current Time 1945 Z
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311940Z - 312115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG DRYLINE BETWEEN
21-23Z WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDS. TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z WITH AN
EXPECTATION OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
FROM GRANT TO CUSTER COUNTIES WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED S/SWWD INTO THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW
BREACHED 100 DEG F ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SWRN OK/NWRN
TX...RESULTING IN MINIMAL MLCIN PER MODIFIED 18Z OUN RAOB. CU JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED IN LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW WITH GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION BY 21Z.
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIAL
PRIMARY RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH A PLUME OF 73-74 DEG F SURFACE
DEW POINTS REMAINING ACROSS CNTRL OK BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION
NOTED IN 18Z OUN RAOB...AND AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES BY 00Z...TORNADO
THREAT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013
Current Time 1945 Z
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311940Z - 312115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG DRYLINE BETWEEN
21-23Z WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDS. TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z WITH AN
EXPECTATION OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
FROM GRANT TO CUSTER COUNTIES WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED S/SWWD INTO THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW
BREACHED 100 DEG F ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SWRN OK/NWRN
TX...RESULTING IN MINIMAL MLCIN PER MODIFIED 18Z OUN RAOB. CU JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED IN LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW WITH GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION BY 21Z.
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIAL
PRIMARY RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH A PLUME OF 73-74 DEG F SURFACE
DEW POINTS REMAINING ACROSS CNTRL OK BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION
NOTED IN 18Z OUN RAOB...AND AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES BY 00Z...TORNADO
THREAT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013
Last edited by Bunkertor on Fri May 31, 2013 2:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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apocalypt-flyer
- Category 1
- Posts: 468
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:51 am
SPC AC 312002
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK INTO SWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NRN TX INTO NERN MN
AND WI...
...OK...SERN KS INTO SWRN MO...
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SERN KS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS
WELL AS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO W CNTRL MO. 18Z SGF SOUNDING
SHOWED A LOADED GUN PROFILE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
VERY DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND A SUPERCELL TORNADO HODOGRAPH.
WITH LIFTED INDICIES OF -10 TO -12...A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.
FARTHER S INTO OK...THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION...WITH A VERY MOIST AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.50 INCHES. OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S F WITH EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
HIGHER BASED CU HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER NW TX AND SWRN OK WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE NEARING 100 F...AND THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE CENTERED IN THIS REGION AS WELL. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW
CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH WINDS OVER CNTRL OK BECOMING
MORE BACKED WITH TIME. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF ENLARGING
HODOGRAPHS AND SRH VALUES. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY PULL THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...NOW FROM N CNTRL INTO WRN OK...SWD TO NEAR I-40. CELLS
THAT FORM OVER SWRN OR W CNTRL OK WILL MOVE E WITH A VERY HIGH
THREAT OF GIANT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. ONE
CAVEAT IS INITIAL LCL HEIGHTS IN THE HOTTER AIR...AND POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORMS MAINLY CELLULAR...HELPING TO
COUNTERACT ANY NEGATIVE OUTFLOW EFFECTS.
LATER IN THE EVENING...A SEVERE MCS AND/OR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE
STILL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND NERN OK INTO SWRN MO...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
...ERN MN...WI...ERN IA...
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER W INTO MN AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM W OF THE MS RIVER WHERE DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AND WITH
COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SEVERE HAIL. STORMS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH A SWD EXTENSION LIKELY INTO IA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..JEWELL.. 05/31/2013
===================================================================
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/
CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOUTHWEST MO. VERY LARGE
HAIL...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW STRONG/VIOLENT
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...
...OK/KS/MO...
ANOTHER VERY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY TODAY. WIDESPREAD VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000
J/KG. THIS AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY CAPPED...AND THE CAP SHOULD
RESTRAIN DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING STRONG
HEATING.
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A SECOND AND STRONGER
TROUGH OVER CO...WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE CAP AND ALLOW EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK...AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR
TO THE N-S DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL OK WILL FAVOR DISCRETE STORM
STRUCTURES. ALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL OK BY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE IN PLACE. HAVE INCREASED SEVERE
PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK
WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK AT 20Z IF
SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS MAINTAIN THIS SCENARIO.
DURING THE EVENING...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL
INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS THAT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
INTO SOUTHWEST MO. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
...IA/MN/WI...
AN UPPER LOW IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS IA/MN. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER PARTS OF
MN/WI/IA WHERE MODERATE AFTERNOON CAPE IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MN/IA AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR
WITH A RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
...IL/IND...
AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STL AREA MAY RE-INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER IL/IND. IF THIS OCCURS...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK INTO SWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NRN TX INTO NERN MN
AND WI...
...OK...SERN KS INTO SWRN MO...
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SERN KS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS
WELL AS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO W CNTRL MO. 18Z SGF SOUNDING
SHOWED A LOADED GUN PROFILE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
VERY DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND A SUPERCELL TORNADO HODOGRAPH.
WITH LIFTED INDICIES OF -10 TO -12...A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.
FARTHER S INTO OK...THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION...WITH A VERY MOIST AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.50 INCHES. OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S F WITH EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
HIGHER BASED CU HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER NW TX AND SWRN OK WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE NEARING 100 F...AND THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE CENTERED IN THIS REGION AS WELL. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW
CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH WINDS OVER CNTRL OK BECOMING
MORE BACKED WITH TIME. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF ENLARGING
HODOGRAPHS AND SRH VALUES. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY PULL THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...NOW FROM N CNTRL INTO WRN OK...SWD TO NEAR I-40. CELLS
THAT FORM OVER SWRN OR W CNTRL OK WILL MOVE E WITH A VERY HIGH
THREAT OF GIANT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. ONE
CAVEAT IS INITIAL LCL HEIGHTS IN THE HOTTER AIR...AND POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORMS MAINLY CELLULAR...HELPING TO
COUNTERACT ANY NEGATIVE OUTFLOW EFFECTS.
LATER IN THE EVENING...A SEVERE MCS AND/OR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE
STILL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND NERN OK INTO SWRN MO...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
...ERN MN...WI...ERN IA...
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER W INTO MN AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM W OF THE MS RIVER WHERE DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AND WITH
COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SEVERE HAIL. STORMS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH A SWD EXTENSION LIKELY INTO IA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..JEWELL.. 05/31/2013
===================================================================
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/
CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOUTHWEST MO. VERY LARGE
HAIL...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW STRONG/VIOLENT
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...
...OK/KS/MO...
ANOTHER VERY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY TODAY. WIDESPREAD VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000
J/KG. THIS AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY CAPPED...AND THE CAP SHOULD
RESTRAIN DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING STRONG
HEATING.
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A SECOND AND STRONGER
TROUGH OVER CO...WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE CAP AND ALLOW EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK...AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR
TO THE N-S DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL OK WILL FAVOR DISCRETE STORM
STRUCTURES. ALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL OK BY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE IN PLACE. HAVE INCREASED SEVERE
PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK
WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK AT 20Z IF
SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS MAINTAIN THIS SCENARIO.
DURING THE EVENING...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL
INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS THAT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
INTO SOUTHWEST MO. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
...IA/MN/WI...
AN UPPER LOW IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS IA/MN. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER PARTS OF
MN/WI/IA WHERE MODERATE AFTERNOON CAPE IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MN/IA AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR
WITH A RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
...IL/IND...
AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STL AREA MAY RE-INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER IL/IND. IF THIS OCCURS...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
Last edited by Bunkertor on Fri May 31, 2013 3:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:My guess for the probs on the Oklahoma watch are 80/70. We will wait and see.
90/70. Close.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wwp0262.txt
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SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
I'm kind of surprised they didn't go with a high risk, especially after seeing the %'s with the PDS watch. Then again, severe wx isn't my speciality.
For anyone reading in the warned areas, please be very cautious today and listen closely to NWS watches and warnings. Today will probably get ugly very quickly. Cap should break soon.
For anyone reading in the warned areas, please be very cautious today and listen closely to NWS watches and warnings. Today will probably get ugly very quickly. Cap should break soon.
0 likes
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:I'm kind of surprised they didn't go with a high risk, especially after seeing the %'s with the PDS watch. Then again, severe wx isn't my speciality.
For anyone reading in the warned areas, please be very cautious today and listen closely to NWS watches and warnings. Today will probably get ugly very quickly. Cap should break soon.
I think it might have to do with the limited spatial extent. Still, an extremely dangerous setup - Moderate Risk based on tornadoes is very serious as it is!
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