Texas Spring-2014

[wxman57]

Wish I was in Texas this week. It's 59 at noon in San Diego with a 20-30 mph COLD wind.

[dhweather]

This tells you all you need to know:


TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL TEXAS AGAIN THIS EVENING...REACHING
THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SOON THEREAFTER. A DRYLINE WILL
SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY...LIKELY
BEFORE ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES.
WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT CROSSWIND ISSUES.

[Tireman4]

Wish I was in Texas this week. It's 59 at noon in San Diego with a 20-30 mph COLD wind.

Nice and sunny here...LOL....80F.....Ha he ha..I will trade you..

[dhweather]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 022024
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR FREDERICK OK
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. SHOULDNT SEE TOO MUCH MORE OF AN
EASTERN PUSH WITH THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY QUIET ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF
OUR CWA...WITH BETTER ACTIVITY IN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND
EROSION OF THE CAP. IF ONE OR TWO CELLS DO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
CWA THIS EVENING...STORM MOTIONS WOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FARTHER EAST...BETTER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND 50
KNOT 850 WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO BE BEST EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 AND WILL FORECAST THE HIGHER POPS FOR THIS LOCATION.

TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE WILL FINALLY BE PUSHED EAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPROACHES THE
REGION. BY 18Z...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST
OF THE DRYLINE...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW...DROPPING TO
NEAR 15-20 PERCENT. WEST WINDS WILL BE AN AVERAGE OF 20 TO 25 MPH
AS 850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A NOCONA TO GLEN ROSE TO COMANCHE
LINE. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS WOULD HELP
ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED AND FELT COMFORTABLE ISSUING THE WARNING.

TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN CATALYST FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW.
THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...BUT CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 50-55 KNOTS WOULD
DEFINITELY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. A CAP AT 850 MB SHOULD LIMIT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE CAP WEAKEN
ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT. DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS MINIMAL AND 850 WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE ONLY
PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 15-25 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO
THREAT LOW.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. WE SHOULD BE RAIN FREE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIP. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 40
PERCENT FOR SUNDAY AS CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER FOR A COOL RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HAMPSHIRE

[weatherdude1108]

Rather depressing stats in today's blog by Bob Rose. I'm already having to water my yard.
These relentless 15-25 mph southerly breezes 24-7 don't help either, except stir up Oak pollen that can't get washed out.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Lagreeneyes03]

Are the forecast temps for the weekend seeming to be trending colder? I'm surprised to see 4-5 days straight of 60's usually a cold front comes through this time of year and the air moderates rather quickly. What's the reasoning for it sticking around so long? Usually the sun angle this time of year would also have a temperature warming/moderating effect, no?

[TheProfessor]

Its so sad seeing the rain chances drop each update.

[Ntxw]

Its so sad seeing the rain chances drop each update.

That it is, but only if you were expecting it. Earlier in the week I thought NWS was too bullish with severe weather. CIN just too high, cap never looked that breakable in the warmer air mass and the temps in particular just weren't warm enough to break it. This weekend isn't going to be any outbreak either for us, but could be a good steady chilly rain event, but it's been trending down on qpf as well because of cooler air mass, as typical with lower heights. 558dm isn't spring-like.

But hey cheer up! It can't stay dry forever

Fun thought of the day, we usually hear bad things about the cap. But it is the cap that allows the southern plains to have the explosive thunderstorms unlike other regions. The cap creates a lid while air is boiling underneath, if broken, air rises violently and you go from nothing to 40-50-60k feet towering thunderstorms! So while the cap can be a pain it is also plays a large role in our severe weather.

[South Texas Storms]

Its so sad seeing the rain chances drop each update.

That it is, but only if you were expecting it. Earlier in the week I thought NWS was too bullish with severe weather. CIN just too high, cap never looked that breakable in the warmer air mass and the temps in particular just weren't warm enough to break it. This weekend isn't going to be any outbreak either for us, but good be a good steady chilly rain event, but it's been trending down on qpf as well because of cooler air mass, as typical with lower heights. 558dm isn't spring-like.

But hey cheer up! It can't stay dry forever

I'm gonna be pretty darn sad if the wet weather pattern doesn't materialize later this month. April is the beginning of the climatologically wetter time of year around here. If we don't get much rain between now and the end of May, it certainly won't be good heading into the summer.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah I read a report that it was an outflow boundary that helped intensify the 1997 Central Texas mini outbreak, which is well known because of the Jarrell Texas F-5 Tornado.

It was, very unusual the storm was moving southwest unlike just about every thunderstorm you know. It moved, and fed along the boundary that was in place.

http://i62.tinypic.com/egsbp5.gif

Cool loop of that infamous cell

I found an article about the Jarrell tornado. Long, but interesting. I lived in San Antonio at the time.
http://stormstalker.wordpress.com/2012/11/23/jarrell/

[Tejas89]

It's 75 for the morning "low" at DFW. That will shatter the daily record and come within a degree of the April record. And it's only the 3rd. Ugh!

[Portastorm]

Yeah I read a report that it was an outflow boundary that helped intensify the 1997 Central Texas mini outbreak, which is well known because of the Jarrell Texas F-5 Tornado.

It was, very unusual the storm was moving southwest unlike just about every thunderstorm you know. It moved, and fed along the boundary that was in place.

http://i62.tinypic.com/egsbp5.gif

Cool loop of that infamous cell

I found an article about the Jarrell tornado. Long, but interesting. I lived in San Antonio at the time.
http://stormstalker.wordpress.com/2012/11/23/jarrell/

I remember that event well ... the green color of the sky that afternoon in Austin. Multiple wall cloud and funnel cloud sightings in the metro area with tornadoes in Cedar Park and Spicewood ... in addition to the monster in Jarrell. The city was really on edge that day.

[dhweather]

Boy, Sherman/Denison are getting drenched this morning. Probably some good sized hail in there too. Oh, and of course Collin county.

[wxman57]

It's 75 for the morning "low" at DFW. That will shatter the daily record and come within a degree of the April record. And it's only the 3rd. Ugh!

If I was only there to enjoy those pleasant morning lows, but I'm stuck in San Diego with lows in the 50s. Bad part is that next week they expect Santa Ana conditions with highs near 90 here! Coat weather this week, though.

[Tireman4]

It's 75 for the morning "low" at DFW. That will shatter the daily record and come within a degree of the April record. And it's only the 3rd. Ugh!

If I was only there to enjoy those pleasant morning lows, but I'm stuck in San Diego with lows in the 50s. Bad part is that next week they expect Santa Ana conditions with highs near 90 here! Coat weather this week, though.

You just cannot catch a break can you? LOL

[Lagreeneyes03]

What's the reasoning that this cold air is sticking around for so long and not moderating? April looks miserable with below average temps most of the month.

[dhweather]

Tornado Watch just issued for most of North Texas

WOUS64 KWNS 031846
WOU2

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 52
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

TORNADO WATCH 52 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC057-061-073-081-091-099-133-040200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0052.140403T1850Z-140404T0200Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
SEVIER


OKC005-013-029-063-069-085-089-095-123-133-040200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0052.140403T1850Z-140404T0200Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA BRYAN COAL
HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE
MARSHALL MCCURTAIN PONTOTOC
SEMINOLE


TXC001-027-035-037-063-067-073-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-139-
143-145-147-159-161-181-183-193-203-213-217-221-223-231-251-257-
277-281-289-293-309-315-331-333-343-349-363-367-379-387-395-397-
401-423-425-439-449-459-467-497-499-040200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0052.140403T1850Z-140404T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
ERATH FALLS FANNIN
FRANKLIN FREESTONE GRAYSON
GREGG HAMILTON HARRISON
HENDERSON HILL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS
LEON LIMESTONE MARION
MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS
MORRIS NAVARRO PALO PINTO
PARKER RAINS RED RIVER
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL RUSK
SMITH SOMERVELL TARRANT
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WISE WOOD


ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

[aggiecutter]

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
southwest Arkansas
southeast Oklahoma
northeast Texas

* effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
several tornadoes possible
numerous large hail events likely with several very large hail
events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
numerous damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 100 statute
miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of De
Queen Arkansas to 15 miles southeast of Temple Texas. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (wous64 kwns wou2).

[dhweather]

[TheProfessor]

First tornado watch this year for Texas.