Texas Spring 2019

[Cpv17]

Days 10-14 on the GEFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019030618/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_10.png

If only we could’ve seen this actually verify a month ago cuz that’s just wow!!

[TheProfessor]

Days 10-14 on the GEFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019030618/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_10.png

That better come with some snow, this week was horrible. Way too cold for March. Thankfully it will be much warmer this weekend.

[Cpv17]

Models look pretty blahhh for my neck of the woods. Might be a few weeks before anything significant happens around here again.

[wxman57]

The big upcoming event will be Tuesday's severe weather outbreak across the southern states Tuesday & Wednesday. For NE and E TX, it's Tuesday afternoon/evening as far as prime time for severe storms. Could be quite a significant event. You can forget about snow chances the week after. Winter is over.

[BrokenGlass]

It's running now - out to 150 hrs. Programmers there had to input the correct heights of my two walls before running it.

I am working on a plan and a team to build a wall to the east and west to keep the summer ridge of death from camping over Texas. Take that!

Good luck with that. The ridge is an upper-level feature, as opposed to shallow (surface) cold air. A wall won't work. Besides, as long as the summer high temps reach 85F I'm happy.

Looking at the 12Z GFS, we may have quite a severe weather event across Texas next Tuesday afternoon/evening.

My wall just got 10,000 feet taller.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[1900hurricane]

Wow at the 12Z GFS for areas between Bryan and Dallas for next Tuesday evening. That's a scary environment. The only thing a little lackluster is the instability, particularly in the low levels. Adding a couple of degrees at the surface could mean tornadoes. Also note the storm motions and velocities, 55 kt to the NNE!

[1900hurricane]

That's roughly in this area, by the way.

[rwfromkansas]

Hope the dryline can hold back west enough for DFW.

[dhweather]

CAPE values weren't that high in Alabama last weekend 1000-1500K, produced the killer EF4 plus several others.

[Haris]

Getting excited. GFS trending slower with the - tilt trough towards euro. Both showing a potent storm system. We need some storms and rain! Hopefully not a big tornado threat.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has freezing/frozen precip into the D-FW area March 16th. Perhaps THIS time it really will happen!

[cheezyWXguy]

That's roughly in this area, by the way.

https://i.imgur.com/Y0dIHdY.png

Curious, is the dry air above 500mb something that could hinder thunderstorm development/maturity, or does it not affect much at that height?

[Tireman4]

12Z Euro has freezing/frozen precip into the D-FW area March 16th. Perhaps THIS time it really will happen!

Gosh darn it sir. You have won. No Winter. You win. May the Summer winds blow nothing but sub 95 degree temperatures in our area all season.

[1900hurricane]

That's roughly in this area, by the way.

https://i.imgur.com/Y0dIHdY.png

Curious, is the dry air above 500mb something that could hinder thunderstorm development/maturity, or does it not affect much at that height?

The dry air shouldn't have much of an effect on thunderstorm development at that level.

[1900hurricane]

The 12Z ECMWF looks fairly similar to the 12Z GFS from what I can tell. I'm curious what the local offices will have to say in the afternoon forecast discussions.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1103749722609717248

[bubba hotep]

12Z Euro has freezing/frozen precip into the D-FW area March 16th. Perhaps THIS time it really will happen!

I told people not to give up on winter wx!

[SoupBone]

Getting excited. GFS trending slower with the - tilt trough towards euro. Both showing a potent storm system. We need some storms and rain! Hopefully not a big tornado threat.

We need neither in Houston. We only had a few days of no rain in February. What's it looking like for H-Town?

[BrokenGlass]

12Z Euro has freezing/frozen precip into the D-FW area March 16th. Perhaps THIS time it really will happen!

I am confident it will...I will be out of town that day.


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[1900hurricane]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 072036
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
236 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019


.SHORT TERM...
/Through Tonight/

Generally tranquil weather is anticipated in the short term
forecast period. High clouds will continue to stream in from the
Pacific Southwest ahead of what will likely be the next chance for
rain and storms across the area. More on this in the long term
discussion below. As for tonight, a diffuse frontal boundary that
has been making slow progression through the Southern Plains this
afternoon will slip to the south into North Texas during the
overnight hours. As this boundary oozes towards the US HWY 380
corridor, temperatures will fall into the 40s with a windshift to
the north. Ascent associated with this front itself appears meager
and on the synoptic scale, shortwave ridging should induce large
scale subsidence. As such, there is not expected to be any
measurable precipitation associated with this feature. This
feature will stall and lift northward later Friday morning.

To the south of this boundary, mild conditions are anticipated as
low to mid 60 degree dewpoints are advected northward. Where
dewpoint depressions fall to or near 3 degrees, there will be a
risk for some reduced visibility. At this time, 925mb winds should
mitigate a fog threat and given some modest warm air advection,
it appears that a resurgence in stratus, drizzle and a few
sprinkles are a good bet across parts of Central and East Texas.
If winds aloft slacken more than currently expected, fog may be a
more appropriate forecast. Nevertheless, reduced visibility of 2-4
miles will be possible. The higher surface dewpoints south of the
stalled boundary will also mean much warmer conditions compared
to the previous night and I`ve nudged overnight lows upward from
the inherited forecast. Lows should only tumble down into upper
50s and low 60s, except across the Big Country where lows may dip
into the low 50s.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Friday through Next Week/

An active, amplifying synoptic pattern is expected to evolve
across the continental US this weekend into next week, especially
towards Tuesday and Wednesday. As such, the main concerns in the
extended are centered on the following:

1) Continued potential for a few strong/severe storms very late
Friday night into early Saturday.

2) Increasing rainfall and storm chances late this weekend into
the middle of the upcoming week, possibly accompanied by both a
flooding and severe-weather threat.

Prior to either of these concerns, Friday should feature
temperatures well above normal across all of Central and most of
North Texas. A tight gradient in temperatures could exist north
of I-20 earlier in the day, given the arrival of a cold front
into at least parts of the Rolling Plains / western Red River
counties. Whereas earlier in the week the NAM suggested a stronger
southward push of this front, more recent guidance (including the
usually reliable HREF) indicate this front may not be displaced
any farther south than our far northwest counties. Given the
flat/zonal nature of mid-level flow across the Plains tomorrow
morning, height rises indeed should be too weak to push this
front much farther south during the day. Even locations towards
Bowie and Graham may mix sufficient during the afternoon to
promote a substantial increase in temperatures. Just south of the
front, a light westerly wind component and downslope warming will
likely boost temperatures into the upper 70s and 80s (at least
10-15 degrees above normal) from the Big Country east/northeast to
the Metroplex.

After tomorrow`s warm conditions, temperatures are unlikely to
cool dramatically overnight, as strengthening south/southwesterly
low-level flow transports moisture northward ahead of a rather
sharp shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest. In conjunction
with the approach of this system, a 50+ kt 850-mb jet will develop
from the lower Texas coast to the Arklatex after midnight.
Strengthening isentropic ascent and some confluence along the
western fringe of this jet corridor may yield isolated elevated
convection after midnight from the Brazos Valley to northeast
Texas. Very steep 700-500mb lapse rates and ample convective-layer
flow would likely offer some large-hail potential. However, these
lapse rates are associated with a very strong subsidence inversion
that may preclude any convective development ahead of the main
shortwave trough, especially in the wake of a weak vorticity-max
"ribbon" departing North Texas Friday evening. Therefore, this
threat seems highly conditional, and most guidance appears to
suggest nothing more than shallow showers in this warm-advection
corridor.

Farther west, more substantial deep-layer forcing for ascent will
arrive with the primary wave. This band of ascent should initiate
some showers and thunderstorms, especially for areas north of I-20
and east of I-35 towards daybreak Saturday. Lifting/saturation of
the inversion is expected to promote an increase in convection --
some of which could be surface-based. Still, veering low-level
flow, a lack of deep rich moisture, and only a glancing influence
of the strongest height falls may keep convection somewhat
thin/skeletal until this ascent arrives across our northeastern
areas (e.g., Paris) Saturday morning. Here, a local maximum in
severe potential (i.e., a few hail/wind reports) is forecast, and
this aligns with the current SPC Day-3 outlook.

After convection clears to our east by mid-day Saturday, a wind
shift to the west will maintain warm conditions across North and
Central Texas. Rainfall amounts the prior night will need to be
monitored closely, as a lack of substantive precipitation
(especially across western counties) may lead to sufficient fuel
receptiveness for a fire-weather threat on Saturday. One limiting
factor, though, is that winds may weaken through the diurnal
max/min in temps/RH, respectively. Even still, some elevated
fire-weather concerns would not be surprising west of I-35
Saturday afternoon.

Conditions briefly clear later Saturday into Sunday as low-level
moisture is confined to our south. However, this reprieve will be
short-lived. Southwesterly flow aloft will re-establish quickly by
late Sunday, increasing isentropic ascent atop a shallow stable
layer. Multiple waves of showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected to impact North and Central Texas Sunday night into
Tuesday. While any particular wave of rainfall may not be
particularly heavy or long-lasting, the rain in aggregate may
boost flooding concerns across parts of the region. This is
especially the case given the amplification of a western-US
longwave trough and the approach of a sharp impulse embedded
within this cyclonic regime by Tuesday/Wednesday.

What`s quite interesting is that this impulse is currently
embedded/related to a closed cyclone over the Pacific Northwest
currently. A series of complex interactions / partial phasing
with other gyres will eventually bring this system across the
southern/central Plains by the middle of next week, and guidance
is essentially universal in illustrating a sharp line of
convection marching across the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Given the presence of strong low-level wind fields and
at least modest surface-based buoyancy, some severe threat appears
probable from Texas into Oklahoma. Moreover, a round of heavy
rainfall on top of prior days` rain could enhance flooding issues
by mid-week. Spatiotemporal details will likely be refined over
the coming days, but deterministic/ensemble guidance are
converging on an idea that some parts of the southern Plains will
likely have to contend with notable severe and/or flooding
concerns by the middle of next week.

Picca

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 072110
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
310 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Moisture will continue to increase across the area this evening into
Friday morning. Dewpoint temperatures are already in the low 60s
across the Coastal Plains and expected to spread to the north this
evening through Friday morning. Surface light winds out of the
southeast are anticipated for the overnight hours into Friday
morning to aid for the development of patchy to areas of fog across
the eastern two-thirds of South Central Texas. Also, there is a
slight chance for light patchy drizzle across the far southeast
portion of the area. Fog will lift by mid-morning with slight
chances for showers continuing across the Coastal Plains for the rest
of the day on Friday. Tonight`s low temperatures are expected to
range from the low 50s out west to low 60s across the Coastal Plains.

Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms arrive late Friday
into Saturday morning ahead as a Pacific front.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The frontal passage is forecast to move across the area on Saturday
morning and exit the region by mid afternoon. The best chances for
showers and thunderstorms are over the northeast Hill Country and
eastern areas or east of Highway 183. Rainfall amounts are expected
to be around one tenth of an inch or less.

Dry weather conditions are expected Saturday mid afternoon to the
evening hours across all areas. Breezy northwest winds will spread
across the area in the wake of the front. Highs to reach the
upper 70s and lower to mid 80s. Relative humidity values will drop
as a result of this dry airmass to promote elevated fire weather
conditions over parts of the Rio Grande and southern Edward Plateau.

Late Saturday night/overnight, the frontal boundary is forecast to
push back into our area and linger around the Hill Country by Sunday
afternoon. This scenario brings rain chances back to the area mainly
Sunday afternoon into the evening and continuing Monday as a surface
trough develops across the Texas coast and move into our area.

By Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, chances for showers and
thunderstorms once again increase with the potential for strong
storms. The medium-range models are in better agreement for this
forecast package but still differ in timing. Once the frontal
passage moves across the area on Wednesday, it could return back to
our area before a stronger Pacific front pushes all the way down to
the coast to clear things out for the rest of the week.