Texas Spring 2020

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:

Monday, April 6, 2020 2:27 PM

The wet weather pattern which developed across our region late last week and over the weekend has diminished. The trough of low pressure responsible for the recent rains exited to the northeast on Sunday. Today through Wednesday, a stable ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is predicted to spread north into Texas, causing warmer and somewhat more stable weather conditions. However, rain will return to the forecast late week and into the weekend when another trough of low pressure moves in from the west.

Monday's weather maps showed a small wave of low pressure located over West Texas that is moving to the east-northeast. This system may help generate a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region this afternoon. The probability for rain at any given location will be near 30 percent this afternoon and 20 percent this evening. For locations that do happen to see rain, totals should only average around a tenth of an inch. Today's sky will be partly cloudy and readings will be noticeably warmer, with highs in the middle 70s. Expect a light south wind at 5-10 mph.

Areas of dense fog are forecast to develop over areas along and east of Interstate 35 late Monday night. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the mid-60s across the Hill Country to near 70 degrees towards the coast.

Weather conditions Tuesday through Wednesday are forecast to be partly cloudy and quite warm. There will be a slight chance for a brief rain shower or two across the region, but rain amounts should stay under a tenth of an inch. The big story about Tuesday and Wednesday's weather will be the unusually warm temperatures. High temperatures Tuesday are predicted to be in the mid-80s, rising to 88-90 degrees on Wednesday. Expect light southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph on both days.

A change in the weather is forecast to take place Thursday when a Canadian cold front pushes south across the area. The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country before daybreak, sinking south to the Austin area by noon. The front should reach the coastal plains region in the late afternoon. An area of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is predicted to develop along and behind the cold front Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain amounts are expected to only average around a quarter inch. The probability for rain Thursday will be near 50 percent, decreasing to 30 percent Thursday night. Temperatures will trend a little cooler behind the front. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid-70s across the Hill Country to the mid-80s near the coast. Lows Friday morning will include the low 50s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas and the low 60s towards the coast.

Friday's weather is expected to be mostly cloudy as clouds and moisture spread into Texas in advance of an area of low pressure moving into the Desert Southwest. This low is forecast to track east and move across Texas on Saturday. There will be a slight chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon, followed by an increasing chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday afternoon. The chance for rain will decrease Saturday night into Sunday morning as the area of low pressure exits our region. Rain amounts from Friday afternoon through Saturday night are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures will be in the low and mid-50s.

Mostly sunny weather is predicted for Easter Sunday as the low pressure area exits to the east. High temperatures look to generally be in the mid-70s. Lows next Monday morning will be in the mid and upper 50s.

The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny and mild conditions next Monday with temperatures in the 70s. There will be a slight chance for rain showers Tuesday when another Canadian cold front sweeps south across our region. Rain amounts should be quite low. Mostly sunny conditions are expected next Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will trend a little cooler next Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs around 70 degrees and lows in the low and mid-50s. Milder readings are forecast late next week.

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[Cpv17]

Where did Ntxw go?

I’m sure he and most of the other regulars are focusing on other things going on, especially while the weather is boring.

That said, Monday April 13th is consistently showing up on the gfs as a day that may need to be watched for severe weather, though it’s a ways out and the 500mb pattern hasn’t been very consistent. Anyone have any thoughts? Professor? Bueller?

Still here!

April so far has begun much cooler than normal. More cool shots are ahead, it's likely to diminish somewhat in the overall outlook for severe weather than what a normal April would incline to be.

But it has been a very wet start to Spring for DFW.

I think one of the culprits is the strong strat PV. It has held longer than usual, so the final warming was delayed thus the exhaust of remaining cold from the polar regions in April.

We've had a persistent -PNA so perhaps in May there could be a shot (short but intense) period of severe weather.

It’s good to hear from you again. It was 5 weeks since I’ve seen you post on here and I thought that was strange. I was kind of worried something happened to you. I’ve missed reading your posts.

[bubba hotep]

The 12z Euro gets DFW down to 34 on the 15th

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro gets DFW down to 34 on the 15th

What’s it show for Houston?

[Cpv17]

The 0z GFS has snow close to DFW next Monday.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The 0z GFS has snow close to DFW next Monday.

We’ve had April snow all the way down into SE TX before. I know College Station has had April snow.

My hometown of Longview had 6-7 inches in April of 2014 or 2015 I believe. It was mid April if my memory serves me well.

[Cpv17]

The 0z GFS has snow close to DFW next Monday.

We’ve had April snow all the way down into SE TX before. I know College Station has had April snow.

My hometown of Longview had 6-7 inches in April of 2014 or 2015 I believe. It was mid April if my memory serves me well.

Yeah I definitely don’t recall that lol coldest I can ever recall us getting here in Wharton in the month of April was about 40 degrees I wanna say in 2008.

[Haris]

Slight risk for Austin for Wed

[Ralph's Weather]

The 0z GFS has snow close to DFW next Monday.

We’ve had April snow all the way down into SE TX before. I know College Station has had April snow.

My hometown of Longview had 6-7 inches in April of 2014 or 2015 I believe. It was mid April if my memory serves me well.

The latest snow around here (Tyler) was the Easter weekend snow in I think 2007, I believe that was around April 8th. We had a couple inches I think

[EnnisTx]

The 12z Euro gets DFW down to 34 on the 15th

That looks very possible as some major artic air looks to be building South mid month. The blocking we couldn't get during the Winter seems to be rearing its head for Spring.... LOL.....

[TheProfessor]

The Euro and UKMet are both starting to become disturbing. It's still way too early, but if they are correct, then this weekend could be one of those outbreaks. Due to the slower progression of the trough over the last couple of runs this does put a good chunk of Central and East Texas in play. Wouldn't be surprised to see SPC pull the trigger on a slight risk for Saturday tonight, especially if the Euro and UKMet continue to hold firm in what they're showing right now.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro and UKMet are both starting to become disturbing. It's still way too early, but if they are correct, then this weekend could be one of those outbreaks. Due to the slower progression of the trough over the last couple of runs this does put a good chunk of Central and East Texas in play. Wouldn't be surprised to see SPC pull the trigger on a slight risk for Saturday tonight, especially if the Euro and UKMet continue to hold firm in what they're showing right now.

Looks like a classic multi-day Spring event setting up. Kicking off in the Plains and running across the southern portions of the country into the SE.

[captainbarbossa19]

The Euro and UKMet are both starting to become disturbing. It's still way too early, but if they are correct, then this weekend could be one of those outbreaks. Due to the slower progression of the trough over the last couple of runs this does put a good chunk of Central and East Texas in play. Wouldn't be surprised to see SPC pull the trigger on a slight risk for Saturday tonight, especially if the Euro and UKMet continue to hold firm in what they're showing right now.

Looks like a classic multi-day Spring event setting up. Kicking off in the Plains and running across the southern portions of the country into the SE.

Spring weather is here y'all! I like the rain (as long as it's not like Imelda), but I don't like the effects of the tornadoes, strong winds, and hail.

[Brent]

Where was this blocking and cold air down the plains in the winter

[Brent]

the latest freeze at DFW is April 13th I don't know if we'll break it but it might be close

what's funnier is Saturday tied a cold high and tomorrow's record of 93 is in danger and I'm sitting here looking at the GFS ensembles for snow I gave up weeks ago it should be noted that DFW has never measured snow in April, only a trace in 2007

[bubba hotep]

Day 4 & 5 from SPC

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Arctic front in April....... Sweet.

[gpsnowman]

Arctic front in April....... Sweet.

Very sweet. I have a 94 reading for the big airport. This breaks the record of 93 with a few more hours of warming left. Hell with it, let's get our first 100!!! Some 50's for highs next week is drool worthy.

[Cpv17]

We could be looking at a significant hail outbreak here tomorrow in SETX. Especially the western and SW areas of SETX. Looks like I’m right near the bullseye here in central Wharton County.

[Brent]

record high of at least 94 at DFW, old record was 93