Texas Summer 2024

[Edwards Limestone]

Terrible trends on the models today. Hopefully the next possible system will come in further N.

Yup- time is running out and QPF >1” just keeps slipping further and further south with each model run. If that trend continues this first round will be pretty much a non-event for everyone except counties in Deep South TX. Obviously they need the rain too- but it seems Lucy is pulling the football again for the Hill Country and coastal areas south of Houston that really need the rain.

[txtwister78]

Terrible trends on the models today. Hopefully the next possible system will come in further N.

Yup- time is running out and QPF >1” just keeps slipping further and further south with each model run. If that trend continues this first round will be pretty much a non-event for everyone except counties in Deep South TX. Obviously they need the rain too- but it seems Lucy is pulling the football again for the Hill Country and coastal areas south of Houston that really need the rain.

Models have definitely come down in terms of QPF no question about that, however doubtful that we miss out completely as the air is going to be beyond saturated tomorrow with the amount of moisture available as the bulk of the precip moves inland. With that in mind, look for these tropical showers to be efficient rainmakers for parts of the region and so it won't take much to put down a few inches. Unfortunately, this isn't setting the stage to be the drought busting event models had advertised just a few days ago as a result of a stronger HP influence suppressing this a bit further south.

NWS does have Bexar currently under a Flash Flood Watch points south although they acknowledge that could be reconfigured in future updates. The good news is areas along I-10/HWY 90 points south still appear to have the best shot of receiving 3 inches plus of rainfall and so while this may not be as widespread as to impact everyone's individual backyard the way they would like, the region as a whole will likely receive some benefit.

[Cpv17]

Looking like the next system could impact the same areas as this one. Still lots of time to watch it though.

[Texas Snowman]

Was true in 1927 and I’m afraid it remains true nearly a century later…

 https://x.com/tracesoftexas/status/1803072679253049411

[txtwister78]

Tropical storm warnings have now been extended further north up the Texas coastline. Latest water vapor & Infared satellite imagery clearly shows convection firing well north of the broad area of circulation. NHC now forecasting tropical storm force gust across much of the Texas coast as this area of convection/large area of precip begins to move inland early tomorrow morning.

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1803163794237260211

[txtwister78]

As mentioned last night, the overall presentation of this system was such that the impacts were clearly going to be felt well north (over three hundred miles) away from the actual center in large part due to persistent wind shear. which has prevented this system from organizing/consolidating. Current wind gusts just off the Texas coastline demonstrate that as a large area of precip begins to move inland in a few hours.

Now we watch radar/trends. Hopefully we can get a good soaking of 1-3 inches across the SA metro tomorrow.

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1803246815187206418

[Brent]

As mentioned last night, the overall presentation of this system was such that the impacts were clearly going to be felt well north (over three hundred miles) away from the actual center in large part due to persistent wind shear. which has prevented this system from organizing/consolidating. Current wind gusts just off the Texas coastline demonstrate that as a large area of precip begins to move inland in a few hours.

Now we watch radar/trends. Hopefully we can get a good soaking of 1-3 inches across the SA metro tomorrow.

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1803246815187206418

Even up here it's been extremely windy today. Yeah this storm is huge on the north side

[Edwards Limestone]

Flood watches cancelled for SA/Bexar County and Comal County. Forecasted QPF just keeps decreasing for the Edwards Plateau.

Would have been nice to get some significant rain out of PTC 1 for the lakes but oh well. These clouds and temps sure are nice compared to hot and sunny.

[weatherdude1108]

Flood watches cancelled for SA/Bexar County and Comal County. Forecasted QPF just keeps decreasing for the Edwards Plateau.

Would have been nice to get some significant rain out of PTC 1 for the lakes but oh well. These clouds and temps sure are nice compared to hot and sunny.

https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/graphicast/small2.png

Can't say I'm not surprised, unfortunately.

I was mentioning to my brother the other day (who's in SA) wondering if this storm was being hyped up and I jokingly predicted to him that we might get 0.5" out of it, or a trace.

So much for joking. Was hoping for the next system to help, but this may go the same route for all we know. Preaching to the choir, but our watersheds in this part of the state are suffering compared to most elsewhere. At least deep south Texas will benefit some. Just tired of false hopes/hypes.

[Edwards Limestone]

Flood watches cancelled for SA/Bexar County and Comal County. Forecasted QPF just keeps decreasing for the Edwards Plateau.

Would have been nice to get some significant rain out of PTC 1 for the lakes but oh well. These clouds and temps sure are nice compared to hot and sunny.

https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/graphicast/small2.png

Can't say I'm not surprised, unfortunately.

I was mentioning to my brother the other day (who's in SA) wondering if this storm was being hyped up and I jokingly predicted to him that we might get 0.5" out of it, or a trace.

So much for joking. Was hoping for the next system to help, but this may go the same route for all we know. Preaching to the choir, but our watersheds in this part of the state are suffering compared to most elsewhere. At least deep south Texas will benefit some. Just tired of false hopes/hypes.

Man I thought the exact same thing when I saw those fantasy GFS precip maps showing 7-10" amounts in our area. Lucy was def setting us up with her football again

Too early to tell for sure, but the SE ridge will prob drive the next system in the same direction unfortunately.

[Cpv17]

Flood watches cancelled for SA/Bexar County and Comal County. Forecasted QPF just keeps decreasing for the Edwards Plateau.

Would have been nice to get some significant rain out of PTC 1 for the lakes but oh well. These clouds and temps sure are nice compared to hot and sunny.

https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/graphicast/small2.png

Can't say I'm not surprised, unfortunately.

I was mentioning to my brother the other day (who's in SA) wondering if this storm was being hyped up and I jokingly predicted to him that we might get 0.5" out of it, or a trace.

So much for joking. Was hoping for the next system to help, but this may go the same route for all we know. Preaching to the choir, but our watersheds in this part of the state are suffering compared to most elsewhere. At least deep south Texas will benefit some. Just tired of false hopes/hypes.

Man I thought the exact same thing when I saw those fantasy GFS precip maps showing 7-10" amounts in our area. Lucy was def setting us up with her football again

Too early to tell for sure, but the SE ridge will prob drive the next system in the same direction unfortunately.

Ensembles pretty much show the next system crashing into Mexico as well. Sucks! Still time for it to change, but I’m not very hopeful.

[Edwards Limestone]

[South Texas Storms]

Radar is looking pretty good this afternoon along with some of the latest high res models. I'm thinking SA has a decent chance of seeing widespread 1-2 inch totals by Friday. Some lucky areas could see up to 3 inches.

[txtwister78]

Radar is looking pretty good this afternoon along with some of the latest high res models. I'm thinking SA has a decent chance of seeing widespread 1-2 inch totals by Friday. Some lucky areas could see up to 3 inches.

Yup, seeing a heavier precip band with some pockets of 2-3 inches per hour setting up just southeast of the metro. Should arrive within the next hour. I don't know but Lucy may have to stay inside for a few hours with her football. I'll take 2 inches out of this event no doubt.

[Edwards Limestone]

Lucy might be taking the day off after all!

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KEWX/standard

[gpsnowman]

Returns looking good there. Congrats to the SA folks and south Texas folks with the rain. Had a nice cloudy day up here with upper 80s. About to get hot I'm afraid

[Anti-freeze]

Just need to keep pushing those bands, if they can make it 80 more miles west then the entire Canyon Lake basin will be covered.

[Texoz]

Lucy might be taking the day off after all!

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KEWX/standard

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KEWX_loop.gif

Is the western edge of the rain running up against a dry air boundary? That western edge seems to be not moving as fast westward as the rain behind it coming from the east.

[utpmg]

.25" in my gauge in east Austin. Heavy overcast all day, occasionally breezy, and alternating zero precip, light rain, and brief heavier showers; rinse and repeat.

[Brent]

Our sunrises officially get later the rest of the year...