2025 Severe Weather

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NashSevereWx/status/1907742841117221134

[cycloneye]

Over 700 warnings issued.

 https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/1907729461551726872

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeatherMatrix/status/1907776895086649356

[cycloneye]

Moderate Risk on Saturday for parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and NE Texas.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western
Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New
Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad,
strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into
Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower
tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm
front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at
the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR
border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should
be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some
2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially
EF3+).

...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas...
As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very
unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the
ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s
with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain
along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and
early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not
anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to
overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of
the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high
resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may
traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The
combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z
guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone
during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These
supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and
0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to
intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any
of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the
environment supports a tornado threat.

A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring
greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal
boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak,
but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with
minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete,
open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more
dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the
Day 1 timeframe.

...Missouri into the Ohio Valley...
Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther
northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into
western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development
are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared
environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of
storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay
along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat
with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to
the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind
gusts will be possible with any storms in this region.

...West Texas to Central Texas...
Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast
across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night
and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with
very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will
support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+")
early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and
orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level
trough.

..Bentley.. 04/03/2025

[cycloneye]

Oh my. My condolenses to the families of the people that haved died.

 https://x.com/foxweather/status/1907847510565023788

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Day 1.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NWSStLouis/status/1907920906153763053

[cycloneye]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas
across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight.
The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast
Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...Arklatex to southern Illinois...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave
trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern
Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern
Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the
Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates
into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not
develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary
synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into
western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This
evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across
western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely
advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant
destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to
this region.

Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage
across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This
activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive
for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is
expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe
thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the
disturbance.

Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL.
Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast
TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the
weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy
along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived
supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop
across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail,
potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly
possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or
long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio
Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts
into this region.

[cycloneye]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas
across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight.
The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast
Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...ArkLaTex to the lower OH Valley through tonight...
An amplified midlevel trough over the Southwest will move slowly
eastward, while embedded/subtle speed maxima eject northeastward
over the southern Plains. Additionally, large-scale ascent will be
enhanced within the right-entrance region of the upper jet over the
upper Midwest. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is expected to
move northward today across AR/western TN/KY in response to a weak
wave developing northeastward from northeast TX toward northwest AR
this afternoon and southeast MO tonight. The depth of the cool air
at LZK diminished substantially from 00z to 12z, which supports
northward mixing of the front and warm sector this afternoon.

Within the surface warm sector, a very moist air mass is in place
with low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates
of 7.5-8.5 C/km. Daytime heating in cloud breaks will contribute to
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition by
early-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is expected both
along the surface front and in the open warm sector. Storm
development will be most concentrated along the front where ascent
will be focused and training storms are likely. More isolated
storms will also be possible farther east in the warm sector from AR
into western TN/KY by mid-late afternoon. Deep-layer vertical
shear/hodograph length will be favorable for supercells, with
substantial low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH near or
above 300 m2/s2, especially near and just southeast of the front in
AR). Given the fairly strong low-level shear and a relatively moist
environment in the low levels, supercells will be capable of
producing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into this
evening in the Moderate risk area. Otherwise, very large hail to
baseball size and damaging gusts will be possible with the
supercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along the
baroclinic zone. North of the front, organized storms will be
capable of producing large hail and occasional damaging gusts.

...Edwards Plateau to north TX late tonight...
Similar to the previous two nights, another round of elevated
thunderstorms is expected near and after 06z from the Edwards
Plateau into north TX and perhaps southeast OK. The storm
environment will be favorable for both elevated supercells with very
large hail and bowing clusters with some potential for damaging
winds to the surface.

..Thompson/Jirak.. 04/04/2025

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/ReedTimmerUSA/status/1908147747867312145

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Look at this tweet from Webb.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1908237550269161874

[cycloneye]

Tornado watch Texas.

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1908239428289491143

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/1908253428872085669

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[Xpost][/Xpost]

[cycloneye]

Wow, is above average.

First post of thread graphics

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1908512448396591303

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1908568624534593692