Major tornado outbreak Sunday...the aftermath..

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CrazyC83
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#181 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 6:47 pm

New tornado warning: Des Moines

http://www.whoradio.com - WHO radio - coverage (until 9:00 pm)
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#182 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:28 pm

Conditions here are extremely favorable for supercell development and nothing is happening. The weather guys in Tulsa and in Oklahoma city are all kind of scratching their heads like wtf
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#183 Postby wx247 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:32 pm

I think things are still going to pop. Just a matter of time.
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#184 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:34 pm

I'm sitting here wondering where is the outbreak? :roll:
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#185 Postby WaitingForSiren » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:36 pm

What outbreak? Well, I personally never even expected an outbreak. I said earlier 20 reports of tornadoes max...and that looks to be the case. Another overforecasted SPC day. The biggest tornado threat remains Iowa...with cells entering des moines right now and then moving east/ne. Nothing strong, but weak tornadoes are likely. A few isolated tornadoes could still occur with the cells in se OK and eastern KS, but overall no tornado outbreak today.
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#186 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:40 pm

im getting a line forming in my area and areas in IL are getting really bad weather
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#187 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:41 pm

wx247 wrote:I think things are still going to pop. Just a matter of time.


NWS agrees with you...we're under a PDS watch till midnight.
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#188 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:52 pm

I always wonder if animals can sense the weather fixing to change. My dog was outside running around playing with the neighbor dog. All of the sudden he stops looks around starts smelling, starts looking at the door and darts to the door and sits there like something is wrong. Now he's inside standing on the back of the couch looking out the window...probably will be nothing, but I just always wonder about that kinda stuff.
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#189 Postby tornadotony » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:52 pm

WaitingForSiren wrote:What outbreak? Well, I personally never even expected an outbreak. I said earlier 20 reports of tornadoes max...and that looks to be the case. Another overforecasted SPC day. The biggest tornado threat remains Iowa...with cells entering des moines right now and then moving east/ne. Nothing strong, but weak tornadoes are likely. A few isolated tornadoes could still occur with the cells in se OK and eastern KS, but overall no tornado outbreak today.

The SPC DID NOT overforecast this. There have been plenty of reports to verify the moderate risk. TORNADOES ARE NOT THE ONLY FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER!

wx247 wrote:I think things are still going to pop. Just a matter of time.

Have we all forgotten 3/12 so quickly? A whole lot of nothing along the dryline tornado-wise, then BAM! I wouldn't be too surprised if that happened. NWS Tulsa seems to think it will.
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#190 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:56 pm

tornadotony wrote:
WaitingForSiren wrote:What outbreak? Well, I personally never even expected an outbreak. I said earlier 20 reports of tornadoes max...and that looks to be the case. Another overforecasted SPC day. The biggest tornado threat remains Iowa...with cells entering des moines right now and then moving east/ne. Nothing strong, but weak tornadoes are likely. A few isolated tornadoes could still occur with the cells in se OK and eastern KS, but overall no tornado outbreak today.

The SPC DID NOT overforecast this. There have been plenty of reports to verify the moderate risk. TORNADOES ARE NOT THE ONLY FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER!

wx247 wrote:I think things are still going to pop. Just a matter of time.

Have we all forgotten 3/12 so quickly? A whole lot of nothing along the dryline tornado-wise, then BAM! I wouldn't be too surprised if that happened. NWS Tulsa seems to think it will.



True enough there's been several reports of TENNIS ball size hail. Thats big hail.

The dog is still acting damn wierd....
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#191 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:56 pm

KOCO doppler HD out of oklahoma city shows what appears to be storms firing on the dryline draped accross I35
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#192 Postby tornadotony » Thu Mar 30, 2006 8:00 pm

We're down to slight.

They did that in GA on 1/2. That move was followed by several strong tornadoes, including the first F3 of the year. Don't let your guard down folks.
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#193 Postby WaitingForSiren » Thu Mar 30, 2006 8:03 pm

Yeah but the emphasized severe factor today was the potential for a few strong tornadoes, and SPC put the highest tornado risk in the wrong areas. Overall spc did a poor job today, maybe a 5 on a scale of 1-10. I am not saying there wasnt a fairly significant severe event as there should be around 20 tornado reports total...but overall spc's large tornado area didnt go over too well.
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#194 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 8:05 pm

WaitingForSiren wrote:Yeah but the emphasized severe factor today was the potential for a few strong tornadoes, and SPC put the highest tornado risk in the wrong areas. Overall spc did a poor job today, maybe a 5 on a scale of 1-10. I am not saying there wasnt a fairly significant severe event as there should be around 20 tornado reports total...but overall spc's large tornado area didnt go over too well.


Up to this point I agree, but lets see what happens with the dryline since it appears to be firing...
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#195 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 8:08 pm

Looks like based on OKC radar that there's a pretty good cell going up just to my west about 45 miles.
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#196 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 8:09 pm

This is all ahead of the cold front too. No one expected a repeat of March 12th in terms of shear numbers of tornadoes, but violent tornadoes can be isolated in nature too...
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#197 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 8:11 pm

Man I wish tulsa didn't suck so much crap...OKC is sooo much better, I can stream OKC radars without a problem, but tulsa? Not a chance :mad:
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#198 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 8:19 pm

WaitingForSiren wrote:Yeah but the emphasized severe factor today was the potential for a few strong tornadoes, and SPC put the highest tornado risk in the wrong areas. Overall spc did a poor job today, maybe a 5 on a scale of 1-10. I am not saying there wasnt a fairly significant severe event as there should be around 20 tornado reports total...but overall spc's large tornado area didnt go over too well.

SPC did not do a poor job in their forecasts, maybe the hatched tornado area and the PDS watches were a little misplaced or perhaps should have been held off a bit, but otherwise their forecast didn't do all that bad. The moderate will mostly verify. There was a potential for a few strong tornadoes today no doubt. Ask anyone I know, I am a very conservative forecaster, but I did see that potential today, although I thought it was relatively low.

Not sure how one can say SPC did a "poor" job on this one though. Was it perfect? Of course not. Very good? I wouldn't even say that. But poor is stretching it a bit, their overall risk areas will verify. I've seen SPC do far worse.

Kinda getting off topic a bit, but I do believe overall SPC is doing a far better job this severe weather season than during last year's season when everyday it seemed like there was a moderate risk or PDS watch that busted. Of course the increase in criteria helps in that regard, but I think SPC has learned a lot of lessons from that year and it shows. Still more work to be done though.
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#199 Postby tornadotony » Thu Mar 30, 2006 8:21 pm

WaitingForSiren wrote:Yeah but the emphasized severe factor today was the potential for a few strong tornadoes, and SPC put the highest tornado risk in the wrong areas. Overall spc did a poor job today, maybe a 5 on a scale of 1-10. I am not saying there wasnt a fairly significant severe event as there should be around 20 tornado reports total...but overall spc's large tornado area didnt go over too well.

I take it you're a big Accuweather supporter? :grrr:
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#200 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 8:26 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 722 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ANDREW COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI NORTHWESTERN GENTRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI SOUTHEASTERN NODAWAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI * UNTIL 745 PM CST

* AT 711 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NORTH OF SAVANNAH. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
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