Texas Severe Weather Potential for 4/28 and 4/29

[CajunMama]

Latest on the Vermilion River...11.67' and supposed to crest around 10:00 at 12-12.5'. I had to go out this evening around 7-7:30 and the roads were bad, bad, bad. The river is out of its banks. Thank goodness it has stopped.

[SouthFloridawx]

Latest on the Vermilion River...11.67' and supposed to crest around 10:00 at 12-12.5'. I had to go out this evening around 7-7:30 and the roads were bad, bad, bad. The river is out of its banks. Thank goodness it has stopped.

That is quite a difference from last week huh?

[jasons2k]

I had 1.54" overnight/this AM.

[Yankeegirl]

We got a good amount of rain here on the west side of town, Im not sure how much, but all the bayous were full.... Looks like not too much in the way of rain for the next week or so... Back to the boring and rainless pattern we have been stuck in again!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

We got a good amount of rain here on the west side of town, Im not sure how much, but all the bayous were full.... Looks like not too much in the way of rain for the next week or so... Back to the boring and rainless pattern we have been stuck in again!!

things could get interesting this Fri/Sat though. Take a look at the 12Z GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

^^Conditions look like they may be right for more severe weather too.^^

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the SPC:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE ZONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 DAY PERIOD. BY MID TO LATE WEEK...AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE AND DIG SEWD INTO THE
MS VALLEY AND ERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY BRING A COLD FRONT
SWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES EVENTUALLY MOVING SEWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE MOST LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
SRN PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS
EWD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR THIS REASON...CAN
NOT IDENTIFY AN AREA OF HIGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE DAY 4
TO 8 DAY PERIOD ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 04/30/2006

[Yankeegirl]

Well its like a week off, so as the weekend gets closer, I will keep an eye on the forecast to see if there is still potential for something.... Right now Im going to play it safe and wait and see...

[PTrackerLA]

We had over 7" of rain in less than a week, a great start to ending a drought. Hopefully we don't fall back into the dry and rainless pattern but at least conditions aren't nearly as bad as they were a week ago and we could actually use a few days to dry out.

[CajunMama]

We still need 18" of rain to get out of this drought.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We still need 18" of rain to get out of this drought.

yeah but if you get it all at once you will see some serious flooding. What would be good for you guys would be five 3" rainfalls each coming about 2-3 days after one another. That would be great if it could happen...but the problem is that the chances of an event like that are slim to none.

[CajunMama]

We had some serious flooding around town Saturday. Road closures, coulees and the river overflowing. I'm still puzzled over the little bit of water on my kitchen floor (we were out so i don't know how high the water got behind my house). The river crested at around 12'. When it crested at 15.81' in January 1993 i had 6" of water in my house...that we had only been in for 6 months.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

With our latest "threat" on Friday night/Saturday morning, I got nothing but a semi damp driveway and newspaper. It didn't even registrar in my rain/dust gauge.

Going on 7 months with less than .25 inch of rain.

May all of you that are getting rain now go back into a severe drought.

Just kidding, people.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow things have sure been dry in south Texas. Hopefully you will get some rain down in Corpus late this week.

[vbhoutex]

With our latest "threat" on Friday night/Saturday morning, I got nothing but a semi damp driveway and newspaper. It didn't even registrar in my rain/dust gauge.

Going on 7 months with less than .25 inch of rain.

May all of you that are getting rain now go back into a severe drought.

Just kidding, people.

Are you sure you don't live in the desert??? J/K!! I had no idea it was that bad down your way. We are in a drought here, but not anything like what you are talking about!!! Call out the rain dancers!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the latest models...here is my thinking for the next event:

A few T-storms could fire on Thursday evening (and if they do they will become strong to severe). Chances will be slim though (10-30%). Then, things get a bit more interesting on Friday. During the day, a very strong MCS should form in N. Texas and head southward. Out ahead of the MCS a few strong cells could form (20% chance during the day), but the question is...where will the MCS go? The latest models show it mostly missing Houston to the east on Friday night (with just the back end making it here)...but we will need to watch this closely. Any deviation westward in the path could mean heavy rains, and a possible severe event (especially since this should be dive bombing from the north...which could mean it takes on the form of a derecho). Lots of model watching is ahead over the next few days, but for now, here are my rain chances that I am predicting:

Thursday - 20%

Friday - 20%

Friday night/Saturday - 40%

**Any storms that fire could become strong or severe.**

[cheezyWXguy]

just wondering, but whats an MCS

[Aquawind]

MCS - Mesoscale Convective System. A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more. MCSs may be round or linear in shape, and include systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, and MCCs (among others). MCS often is used to describe a cluster of thunderstorms that does not satisfy the size, shape, or duration criteria of an MCC.



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary3.php#m

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 020851
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING OVER OUR CWFA . PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN LINGERING. WE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
DAYS AND INCREASING LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO/UTAH REGION WILL EJECT STRONGER
IMPULSES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOWARD END OF WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE EAST DURING WEEKEND AND SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (WHICH HAS BEEN LINGERING NEAR THE RED
RIVER) SOUTH. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WILL TRANSLATE IS
PROBLEMATIC SINCE MODELS DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS. GFS IS MOVING
BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME DRYING SUNDAY AS LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHES THROUGH. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING STRONG
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TOWARD END OF WEEK. OUR CONFIDENCE IN NOT HIGH
FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODEL
IS HINTING THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ONLY PUSH SOUTH APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN ZONES...STALLING AND THEN BECOME DIFFUSE ON SUNDAY.
WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF POPS LATE THIS WEEK WITH CHANCE
NORTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY EXPANDING SOUTH SATURDAY AS BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH AS PER GFS. IF GFS IS CORRECT...LATTER PART OF WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AGAIN. 37

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
12Z CRP SOUNDING IS RATHER POTENT. AT 15Z...A PERSISTENT MCS OVER
NORTH TEXAS WAS SAGGING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. GPS SATELLITE PWS
WERE AROUND 1.2 INCHES. SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT REVEAL ANY
BOUNDARIES AND 12Z 250 MB WINDS ARE GENERALLY CONFLUENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST NAM/RUC MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A WIDE
SWATH OF PRECIP DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.
NAM TRANSITIONS CONVERGENT FLOW TO DIVERGENT BY 00Z. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS NORTH OF I-10 FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 43/32

[Yankeegirl]

I did see on the news today at noon they mentioned the chance of rain Friday night into Saturday morning... They also mentioned there could be a chance of severe weather with it, but we have to wait and see since its a few days off.... Its all good, we need the rain, and the thunder would be nice to sleep through!!