SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

[Yankeegirl]

Still looks to be an interesting weather event! Stay tuned!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

18Z GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif
^^Still shows a 1050mb+ high pressure system^^

It also still shows Thursday and Friday being in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows near or below freezing. However, I still think it is too warm and weakens the high too quickly. It shows a 1050mb+ high weakening to near 1030-1035mb within 24-36 hrs (which I doubt will happen). I bet that we see the GFS numbers drop some (a few more degrees) over the next few days.

Still looks cold though...

Here are the 18Z numbers for IAH (from the accuweather pro models plus section):

Thursday afternoon = 50F

Thursday evening = 41F

Friday morning = 29F

Friday afternoon = 48F

Friday evening = 32F

12am Saturday morning = 29F<<If we are already this cold at midnight, then we will likely be colder by daybreak. Low to mid 20s? This will probably be a hard freeze.

So you can see that the GFS is still cold, but I think another few degrees colder is certainly possible. Lots to watch...

[KatDaddy]

Looks like another wind event for the downtown Houston canyons Thursday. This will be much different than the last wind event due to temps. A blasting wind with temps in the 40s or lower will bring a low wind chill.

A stinging blue norther as the HPC disco stated today.

[JenBayles]

Yeah, and this time if we get our neighbor's palm fronds, they're going over the fence and right back into their yard. We cleaned up all the mess from the last blow; they can take care of this one. So there. Nyaaah!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is what the 0Z GFS model run is showing for Houston (IAH):

Thursday morning (daybreak) = 45F ~ Line of storms moving out of area, becoming windy.

Thursday afternoon = 49F ~ Windy and cold under partly sunny skies.

Thursday evening = 41F ~ Windy and cold under partly cloudy skies.

Friday morning (daybreak) = 28F ~ Clear and cold.

Friday afternoon = 47F ~ Sunny and chilly.

Friday evening = 34F ~ clear and cold (perfect radiational cooling).

Saturday morning (daybreak) = 26F ~ clear and cold (Perfect radiational cooling).

Brr..

Looks like the 0Z has trended temps. even further down (by a degree or so) from the 12Z and 18Z run. Saturday morning looks like a hard freeze for sure (all the way to metro Houston) and Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the 40s!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

One of our Corpus on air Mets is quite concerned about this front. One had us barley above 50 on Friday with sunshine which usually translates to 20's and 30's at night.

Time to start getting things ready for prepertation if you have tender vegitation, exposed pipes out side, and the pets.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12Z GFS is rolling in and BRRRR! It could very well be the coldest and most interesting yet. Here is what it shows:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
^^Arctic front slicing into the state early Thursday morning with snow in the panhandle and a possible flurry or two in north Texas^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml
^^A cold rain in SE Texas on Thursday afternoon with temperatures below 50F. In north Texas some light rain could be mixed with wintery precip.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml
^^Light rain (mixing with winter precip?) Thursday evening as temperatures fall into the 30s and 40s.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
^^Very light precipitation early Friday morning (about 12am). Could this possibly be in the form of sleet/snow?^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
^^Freezing temperatures Friday morning with possible flurries? Off to our east, it looks like a more significant snow/sleet/frz. rain threat in northern and central LA.^^

The model is still not fully in, but as of now it looks like a cold one is in store for Friday and Saturday as well. I will have the latest as it becomes available, but ATM the interesting part is the fact that the 12Z moves the precip. out of the area much slower leaving a possible window for some flurries or sleet pellets. Lets just hope this becomes a trend!

[Extremeweatherguy]

More is coming in right now. Here is the latest:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml
^^Friday afternoon looks very cold. Temperatures will struggle to make 32F off to our NE and in Texas highs in the 30s and 40s look like a good bet for most (if this is right).^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^Sat. Morning looks like a widespread freeze for SE Texas with a hard freeze north of I-10 likely.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml
^^Highs Saturday then look to struggle to reach 50F yet again for most in SE Texas.^^

Basically, if the 12Z GFS is right then we will need to bundle up for sure!

BTW: I did just take a closer look at the 12Z on accuweather pro and IT IS showing some sleet pellets and snowflakes in SE Texas on Friday morning at the tail end of the precipitation!

[double D]

It looks like the GFS is starting to trend cooler and now I expect the NWS offices to start lowering the highs even more.

It would be nice if some of that moisture from Amarillo would work its way down south to give us a chance of a flurry or two.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, here are the latest 12Z GFS surface temperatures for IAH:

Thursday morning (daybreak) = 63F <<12Z moves the front a tad slower...should be here a few hours after daybreak.

Thursday afternoon = 45F

Thursday evening = 37F

Friday morning (daybreak) = 29F

Friday afternoon = 43F

Friday evening = 32F

Saturday morning (daybreak) = 25F

25F!?! That would be one cold moring at IAH for December 1st! In fact, that would break the old record low. Also, the high of ~43F on Friday afternoon would become the new low maximum for December 1st. This cold snap is looking colder and colder with each run.

[jasons2k]

Maybe if we can get some precip or at least clouds thrown in it can save us from a hard freeze. That's what I'm hoping for, may be a long shot but we'll see.

[double D]

The GFS still is a lot slower moving the front in than the other models. The GFS is about 6-12 hours slower than the ECMWF. I wouldn't be surprised if the front comes in on Wednesday afternoon or evening. We will have to see if the GFS speeds up the front in future runs.

[rsdoug1981]

Well, I'm not a Texan, but this caught my attention in my Jackson, MS AFD:

WILL INCH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER AS GFS WILL PROBABLY SLOW SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR APPROACHES.

This may become a trend in the AFDs across the south in the next couple of days. Jackson has been mentioning a cool down, but this is the first mention of 'Arctic air' and precip behind the front.

If this 12z GFS run is anywhere near close to what actually happens, there will be lots of happy southerners...including this one.

[JenBayles]

Glad to see you rsdoug! Chime in any time.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

We need another thread now. EWG care to start one?

[Ptarmigan]

Also, here are the latest 12Z GFS surface temperatures for IAH:

Thursday morning (daybreak) = 63F <<12Z moves the front a tad slower...should be here a few hours after daybreak.

Thursday afternoon = 45F

Thursday evening = 37F

Friday morning (daybreak) = 29F

Friday afternoon = 43F

Friday evening = 32F

Saturday morning (daybreak) = 25F

25F!?! That would be one cold moring at IAH for December 1st! In fact, that would break the old record low. Also, the high of ~43F on Friday afternoon would become the new low maximum for December 1st. This cold snap is looking colder and colder with each run.

Looks like a cold weekend, a far outcry of this warm weekend. I checked the forecast and the lows on Friday morning will be 34. The forecast is subjected to change.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We need another thread now. EWG care to start one?

what do you mean another thread? We don't need to start a new one until this reaches 25 pages.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

could it be possible bush iah could be in the upper teens to low 20's by next saturday morning if the models are having a hard time with this as they usually do?

[Extremeweatherguy]

could it be possible bush iah could be in the upper teens to low 20's by next saturday morning if the models are having a hard time with this as they usually do?

I don't know about that. It is possible, but it would take a lot to reach the upper teens. The coldest ever low for Houston between the 25th of November and 5th of December was 19F..so it has happened before, but it would be hard to do again. With perfect radiational cooling and a cold enough airmass, however, it may be possible, but at this point it is too early to know for sure.

Lots to watch though to see how everything actually plays out..

BTW, here are the record lows for IAH between Dec. 1st and Dec. 3rd. Each of these could potentially be in jeopardy:

Dec. 1st - 26
Dec. 2nd - 28
Dec. 3rd - 29

So regardless of whether or not we reach the teens or low 20s, it does look possible that we break some records.

[Yankeegirl]

I think as long as the clouds celar out, which sucks, cause it makes the wintery precip potential null, and the winds die down, we might get bitterly cold.... for us here in Houston anything under the 40 degree mark is bitterly cold!!!