Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
145 PM AST Sat Nov 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A moist and unstable weather pattern will continue
to prevail through early next week as trofiness and plenty of low
level moisture dominates the northeast Caribbean. The potential
for flooding as well as mudslides continues. A Flash Flood Watch
still in effect for Puerto Rico as well as Vieques and Culebra
through Sunday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A mid to upper level ridge will continue to erode
as a trough moves westward into the northeast Caribbean during
the weekend. At lower levels, a frontal boundary north northwest
of the local islands will continue to induce a surface trough as
well as moisture convergence across the northeast Caribbean with
light to gentle easterly winds. As a result through Monday, under
trofiness and moisture convergence, the potential for showers with
thunderstorms will continue to be high. The strongest and widespread
activity will be focused over Puerto Rico during the late morning
through early evening hours due to enhancement associated with
diurnal heating and local effects. During the late evening and
overnight hours, shower and thunder activity is mainly expected
across coastal areas as well as the regional waters. Across
Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands, expect periods of
scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms mainly overnight
and early morning hours. Due to already saturated soils, potential
for urban and small stream flooding as well as sharp rises along
rivers continues. Mudslides in areas of steep terrain is likely.

As the trough moves away and the moisture convergence zone north
northwest of the area weakens, weather conditions are expected to
slowly improve Tue-Wed. However, precipitable water will remain
above the normal range with locally induced showers and thunderstorms
likely. As a strong surface high establishes across the western
and central Atlantic Thu-Fri, erosion of low level moisture is
expected with mainly fair weather conditions expected to prevail
by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions across most eastern terminals
through the rest of the day...but will mention vicinity showers.
Expect afternoon thunderstorm activity to affect more TJMZ and
TJPS...but will keep VCTS for TJSJ and TJBQ as well.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue at 5 feet or less tonight. A northerly
swell around 7 feet will enter the Atlantic waters and Passages
late Sunday and continue through at least Monday. This will result
in hazardous seas and dangerous rip currents along the Atlantic
coastline of Puerto Rico, Culebra and St. Thomas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 84 76 85 / 40 60 50 50
STT 78 86 77 85 / 60 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
552 AM AST Sun Nov 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Trof pattern will continue across the Caribbean
waters, the Mona Passage and Atlantic waters for the next few
days. This will continue to provide abundant moisture and
enough instability over the local area. Wet pattern will continue
through mid week. The threat for flash flooding and mudslides will
remain high across mainland PR due to already saturated soils.
Therefore the flash flood watch continues in effect through this
evening.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers affected the northern coastal
areas from Vega Baja to the San Juan metro area during the
overnight hours. Isolated shower activity was also observed over
coastal areas of northwestern PR and St. John. Across the regional
waters scattered to numerous showers were observed through the
overnight hours and its expected to continue for the rest of the
morning hours, some of these showers with heavy rainfall are
possible across the northern/eastern portions of PR and over the
U.S. Virgin Islands. For this afternoon, cloud cover is not
expected as yesterday and daytime heating will aid to the
development of showers and thunderstorms across the
interior/western portions of PR.

A trof pattern across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters due to an
upper trof, a cold front and induced surface trough will continue
to meander over the area through at least Tuesday. Moisture
content and an unstable atmosphere will continue through this
period. Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain high each day
across the local waters and Puerto Rico. Due to already saturated
soils and evolving wet pattern, the flash flood watch has been
extended through this evening for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds with VCSH will prevail across the USVI
and TJSJ TAF sites until 20/12Z. Winds will continue very light and
variable until 20/13Z. After that winds to be mainly from he East to
ESE across the USVI and East to ENE across PR at about 5-10 KT with
sea breeze variations. SHRA/TSRA activity is expected to increase
across the local flying area after 20/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas expected to range between 4-6 feet Today,
increasing to 7 feet later tonight across the offshore Atlantic
waters due to a northerly swell. Small craft advisory will be in
effect from 6 pm ast across these waters. There is a moderate
risk of rip currents for much of the Atlantic coast of PR Today.
A high risk of strong and dangerous rip currents is expected on
Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 85 76 / 70 50 60 40
STT 86 76 86 76 / 60 50 60 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
209 PM AST Sun Nov 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A moist and unstable weather pattern will continue
to prevail through at least Tuesday morning as trofiness and
plenty of low level moisture dominates the northeast Caribbean.
The potential for flooding as well as mudslides continues. A
Flash Flood Watch still in effect for all Puerto Rico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mid level trough will continue to prevail across the
western Atlantic and into the Greater Antilles through Tuesday while
weakening. At lower levels, a frontal boundary across the northeast
Caribbean will continue to induce a surface trough as well as
moisture convergence across the local islands. As a result through
Tuesday, under trofiness and moisture convergence, the potential
for showers with thunderstorms will continue to be high. The
strongest and widespread activity will be focused over Puerto Rico
during the late morning through early evening hours due to
enhancement associated with diurnal heating and local effects.
During the late evening and overnight hours, shower and thunder
activity is expected across the coastal areas but mostly over the
regional waters. Across Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, still expect periods of scattered to locally numerous
showers with isolated thunderstorms overnight and early morning
hours. Due to already saturated soils, potential for urban and
small stream flooding as well as sharp rises along rivers continues.
Mudslides in areas of steep terrain is likely.

As the trough moves away and the moisture convergence zone north
northwest of the area weakens, weather conditions are expected to
slowly improve Wed-Thu. However, precipitable water will remain
above the normal range with locally induced showers and thunderstorms
likely. As a strong surface high establishes across the western
and central Atlantic by the end of the week, erosion of low level
moisture is expected with mainly fair weather conditions Friday
and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA across the interior sections of PR will
continue to develop through the rest of the afternoon hours. Mtn
top obscd and tempo MVFR conds possible across mainland PR
terminals. Frontal boundary will continue over the NW waters of PR
through the fcst period. SHRA with possible isld TSTMS expected
across the Atlantic waters and with a northerly wind component
could reach the northern terminals. Sct-Num showers expected to
continue over the waters affecting much of the flying area with
VCSH/VCTS and possible -RA at times across the rest of terminals.
Sfc winds light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...A short-period swell will invade the offshore Atlantic
waters late tonight and persist through Monday night. Small craft
advisory for the offshore Atlantic waters in effect later tonight.
Seas up to 7 feet are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 50 60 40 40
STT 76 86 76 87 / 50 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
149 PM AST Mon Nov 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Frontal boundary and trofiness aloft across the
forecast area will continue to provide moisture through at least
Wednesday. Fair weather conditions are expected to return on
Thursday. The potential for widespread flooding as well as
mudslides will persist through the rest of the afternoon and this
evening. A flash flood watch remains in effect for all of Puerto
Rico including Culebra and Vieques through early this evening. A
gradual improvement on the weather conditions is expected
tomorrow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly cloudy skies and scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms were observed across all local
islands Today. Between 1-2 inches of rain were observed with the
heaviest showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and portions of
eastern and northern PR through 1 pm ast. Additional shower
activity is expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon
hours and early evening hours across all local islands as the
front with induced prefrontal trof lingers between the southern
Caribbean/Mona Passage/Atlantic waters. Therefore, the potential
for flash flooding and mudslides remains very high across PR.

Conditions are expected to gradually improve by the later part of
the week as mid to upper ridge builds aloft from the west and
erodes the available moisture. However, shower and thunderstorm
development is expected on Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon, but it
should be confined to the interior and SW quadrant of PR. Also, a
strong surface high pressure will enter the western Atlantic and
promote moderate east to northeast winds through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR or even IFR conds in SHRA/isolated TSRA as well as
mountain obscurations will remain possible at all PR and USVI TAF
sites through the forecast period as trofiness dominates the
northeast Caribbean. Winds will remain light but mainly from the
ESE. Elsewhere, VFR conds expected to prevail. Wx conds expected to
slowly improve tomorrow.


&&

.MARINE...A moderate northerly swell will continue to slowly fade
through the overnight hours. This swell will result in a high risk
of rip current through at least Tuesday afternoon. In addition
seas of 7 feet are expected to continue mainly across the offshore
Atlantic waters and Mona Passage through at least early Tuesday
morning. Therefore, small craft advisories are in effect for these
waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 76 84 / 50 50 30 30
STT 77 85 76 86 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
521 AM AST Tue Nov 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Polar trough continued eastward across the western Atlantic
and north of the region, as high pressure ridge continued to settle
in across the forecast area. This is inducing a westerly wind flow
aloft. However A mid level short wave trough and associated vort
max is expected to sweep across the region today and this should
help destabilize the mid to upper levels particularly during the
late morning and afternoon hours. This trough will be quickly
followed by mid level ridging later in the evening and through the
end of the work week. The frontal boundary/shear line continued
across western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage today. This will
maintain a moist low level environment across the region with
precipitable water values still ranging around two inches or so.
This frontal boundary will continue to meander across the region
while slowly dissipating and sinking south of the region, as
surface high pressure ridge will build across the west Atlantic
and north of the region Wednesday through the end of the week.
This in turn will gradually induce prevailing east to northeast
winds along with a tightening of the local pressure gradient and
increasing the northeasterly trade winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Expected sufficient breaks in cloud cover and mid to upper level
instability to support afternoon late morning and convection in
some areas across the islands today. The dominant low level
moisture convergence across the region and prevailing light to
moderate easterlies should focus most of the activity across the
interior and west sections of Puerto Rico today. Persistent moisture
entrainment in some areas may lead to some localized heavy rainfall
which in turn will quickly lead to urban and small stream flooding
in isolated areas as soil remain completely saturated across Puerto
Rico. Lesser activity is expected across the U.S Virgin Islands
however isolated to scattered showers will remain likely in isolated
areas and brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will
also remain possible. Lesser low level moisture transport and
pooling is expected across the region during the latter part of
the week, as the aforementioned frontal boundary and associated
moisture field will gradually diminish.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals through
22/14Z. SHRA is present across the local flying area but generally
not affecting the local terminals but VCSH is very possible. Winds
overnight should be mainly light and variable. SHRA/TSRA expected
across PR after 22/16Z, VCTS likely for TJBQ/TJMZ and possible at
the sites, while VCTS is possible for TJSJ and TJPS. Sct SHRA
expected to TIST/TISX so VCSH is on TAF. Winds becoming easterly at
about 10KT after 22/13Z.

&&

.MARINE... Overall seas will continue to fluctuate between 6 to 7
feet over the offshore Atlantic waters during the next 6-12 hrs
or so due to a subsiding northerly swell. however,seas will then
increase to near 7 feet once again during the latter part of the
week as the local surface pressure gradient tightens and the
northeasterly trades increase. Therefore, small craft advisories
will remain in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters due to the
slowly subsiding swell action and increasing choppy seas. Small
craft should exercise caution elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 84 76 / 40 30 30 20
STT 85 77 86 77 / 50 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
215 PM AST Tue Nov 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Trough aloft will continue to weak over the region today. At low
level, a frontal boundary/shear-line and above normal moisture
will continue to enhance showers and possibly one or two
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon. Weather conditions
are expected to slowly improve during the rest of the week and
into the upcoming weekend, as a ridge aloft builds over the region
and a relative dry air mass encompass the region. However, the
lingering moisture combined with the diurnal heating and local
effects will be enough to result in the typical trade wind showers
during the overnight and early morning showers, followed by
showers and thunderstorms along and to the west of the Cordillera
Central each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cloudy skies prevailed over the region today, as a mid to upper
level cloud layer moved across the islands. For the rest of this
afternoon, showers with isolated thunderstorms are likely to
continue across Mainland Puerto Rico, but the strongest activity
is expected along the interior and western sections of Puerto
Rico, as well as across the San Juan Metro-Area. Due to already
saturated soils, potential for urban and small stream flooding as
well as sharp rises along rivers continues. Mudslides in areas of
steep terrain is likely.

Although, weather conditions will continue to slowly improve during
the rest of the work week and into the upcoming weekend, above
normal surface moisture will result in locally induced showers and
isolated thunderstorms each day across the region. Particularly,
along the east half portion of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands during the overnight and early morning hours. Followed by
afternoon convection along and to the west of the Cordillera, but
decreasing each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conds in SHRA/ isolated TSRA as well as mountain
obscurations will remain possible at all PR sites through the
forecast period as a weakening trof moves away. Across the Leeward
and USVI terminals mostly VFR conds with VCSH. ESE winds 10 knots
or less becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Marine Conditions will continue to slowly diminish over
the Atlantic Waters tonight, but winds are to gradually increase
across the offshore shore Atlantic waters through Friday as the
local pressure gradient tightens. This will lead to choppy seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 50 50 20 20
STT 76 87 78 87 / 50 50 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
605 AM AST Wed Nov 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge pattern aloft will help to slowly improve the local
weather conditions through the rest of the week. However, frontal
boundary/shear-line and above to normal surface moisture will
continue to enhance showers across the local waters, the U.S.
Virgin Islands and the windward sections of PR this morning. Then,
afternoon convection along and to the South of the Cordillera
Central is expected over Mainland Puerto Rico. Weather conditions
are expected to slowly improve during the rest of the week and
into the upcoming weekend, as a relative dry air mass encompass
the region. However, expect the typical trade wind showers during
the overnight and early morning showers, followed by showers and
thunderstorms along and to the west of the Cordillera Central each
afternoon.

&&
Light to moderate showers prevailed mainly over St Croix and the
local waters overnight. Although little or no shower activity was
observed over mainland Puerto Rico, the river levels continued
high due to the excessive runoff from the previous significant
rainfall amounts. For the rest of this morning, passing showers
expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the windward sections
of Puerto Rico. The frontal boundary and plenty of low level
moisture will result in showers and isolated thunderstorms along
and to the south of the Cordillera Central during the afternoon
hours. Due to already saturated soils, potential for urban and
small stream flooding as well as sharp rises along rivers
continues. Mudslides in areas of steep terrain is likely.

Weather conditions will continue to slowly improve during the
rest of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However the
lingering surface moisture will result in locally induced showers
and isolated thunderstorms each day across the region.
Particularly, along the east half portion of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and early morning hours.
Followed by afternoon convection along and to the west of the
Cordillera.

&&

.AVIATION...
Vfr conds at all terminals and en route btw islands.
SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr FL022...FL050..FL100...BKN-OVC nr FL200-FL250.
SCT SHRA en route btw islnds FEW TCU Tops FL180. Til 23/14z...MVFR
conds in SHRA and low cld lyrs as well as mtn top obscr along
portions of interior sections of PR including EL Yunque ern PR.
Across the Leeward and USVI terminals mostly VFR conds with few
passing SHRA...CLD lyrs thicker vcty TISX... Sfc wnds calm to lgt
and vrb til 23/14z bcmg fm E-NE winds 10-15 kts aft.

&&

.MARINE...
Mariners can expect seas up to 7 feet and northeast winds at 10 to
20 knots. Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic and
Caribbean Passages, elsewhere small craft should exercise caution.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast for the Northwest and
Northern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 85 77 / 40 20 20 20
STT 86 77 87 76 / 50 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
215 PM AST Wed Nov 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Building ridge aloft will continue to erode the
available moisture and strengthen the trade wind cap during the
next few days. A surface high across the western Atlantic will
promote moderate to fresh east to northeast trades across the
forecast area. Another polar trof and associated frontal boundary
is forecast to reach the area by Sunday/Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Fair weather conditions prevailed during the day
across the local islands. Quick trade wind shower activity with
light rainfall amounts were observed over portions of the U.S.
Vrigin Islands and the northern and eastern sections of Puerto
Rico. For the rest of the afternoon hours, showers are expected to
affect mainly the mountain ranges of PR with possible isolated
thunderstorms over the SW quadrant of PR.

For the next few days, under building ridge and surface high to
the north/northwest mostly fair weather conditions are expected to
prevail. Trade wind showers will continue across the waters with a
few of them reaching portions of the USVI and the north/eastern
portions of PR each day through at least Saturday. Limited
afternoon convection is expected also each day across the interior
and southwestern portions of PR. By Sunday into Monday a wetterpattern
is forecast to develop under polar trof and associated frontal
boundary reaching the local area.


&&

.AVIATION...A drier airmass will be moving in and this will result
in mostly vfr to mvfr conds at all terminals and en route btw
islands through 24/12z.Will still indicate vcts for TJPS and TJMZ
through at least 23z to account for isold/sct convection developing
ovr interior PR this afternoon. Sfc wnds fm E-NE winds 10-15 kts
this aft becoming 5-10 kts aft 23/23z.


&&

.MARINE...Strong surface high pressure will move over the western
atlantic during the next day and pass north of the area during the
weekend. This will promote moderate to fresh east-northeast trades
through the forecast period. This will also increase seas to
around 7 feet across the Atlantic waters and Mona Passage. A high
risk of rip currents will continue for the Atlantic beaches of PR
and Culebra for the next day or so. A moderate risk is expected
elsewhere.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 85 77 / 40 20 20 20
STT 86 77 87 76 / 50 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
443 AM AST Thu Nov 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will continue to erode the
boundary remnants and strengthens the trade wind across the
region during the next few days. Surface high pressure across the
Western Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh east to northeast
trades across the forecast area and will also aid to push the
available moisture toward the Caribbean waters. An upper level
trough is expected to reach the region by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler radar detected isolated to scattered showers
across the surrounding coastal waters with few of them moving
inland over eastern and northern sections of Puerto Rico
overnight. This activity will continue this morning, but they are
expected to be brief as they are moving relatively quickly. Also,
because of how quickly they are moving, the showers may go a bit
further inland than we normally see for early morning showers, so
some of the showers could briefly make it to central PR, but
rainfall accumulations are expected to be minimal.

A relatively quiet weather conditions are expected this afternoon in
comparison with the past several days. An upper level ridge
building over the area will continue to erode the moisture
associated with the frontal boundary remnants across the local
islands. A surface high pressure across the Western Atlantic will
induce an increase in the trade winds across the northeast
Caribbean and will also aid to push the available moisture
southward across the Caribbean waters. However, isolated to
scattered showers are possible today through the local area with
some more significant showers over southwest Puerto Rico during
the afternoon hours.

No significant weather feature is expected to affect the region
as the local weather will continue to gradually improve over the
next several days. An upper level trough is expected to approach
to the region by Monday next week, slightly increasing the
chances of showers.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR at all terminals and en route btw islands...except
for passing SHRA in dominant l/lvl NE wind flow til 24/12z. Prds of
-SHRA ovr nrn half and E PR as well as coastal waters surrounding
USVI. Brief MVFR in -SHRA and Mtn top obscr psbl ovr E PR vcty of El
Yunque Pico Del Este due to low clds and passing SHRA til 24/12z.
VCSH at TJSJ/TJBQ/TJNR and TNCM/TKPK in Nrn leeward islands... SHRA
at TJMZ/TJPS. Fm 24/16z-24/22z...Isold-Sct SHRA likely ovr interior
PR with Sct-Bkn cld lyrs. Sfc wnds fm E-NE winds 10-15 kts ocnl
higher gust up to 25 knots psbl durg aftn...bcmg 5-10 kts aft
23/23z.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisories continue in effect. Seas are
expected to increase up to 7 feet today and continuing for the
next few days. The local nearshore buoy 41053 is reporting seas of
about 6 feet while the buoy in Rincon is reporting seas of 6.5
feet. High risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches of
Puerto Rico, Culebra and Saint Thomas until remains in effect
until Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 85 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 77 87 76 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 PM AST Thu Nov 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge pattern will continue to dominate the local
weather conditions through Saturday. This will limit the vertical
development of the showers across the local region. Meanwhile, fresh
trade winds will push light passing showers across the windward
areas at times. Then...a polar trough will move across the Western
Atlantic late Sunday into Monday. The trough aloft will destabilize
the atmosphere and promote moisture transport across the local islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A surface high located just northeast of Bahamas
is supporting a fresh to strong trade wind flow over the islands.
Morning TJSJ sounding and radar wind profile a solid layer of 20 kt
from surface to 10 kft. The brisk northeast winds have resulted in
quick passing showers across most of the local area. The steering
flow is strong enough to push this showers over the leeward side
of the islands. Similar pattern will continue over the next 48
hours with shallow convection affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands from time to time. Under this pattern...rainfall accumulations
will remain fairly light.

The weather conditions will change late Sunday into Monday as a
polar trough moves across the Western Atlantic. This broad trough
will weaken the ridge aloft allowing moisture to pool over the
region. Therefore...the potential of showers and thunderstorms
increases late Sunday into Monday under an upper trough pattern.

Then...a broad high pressure builds over the Western Atlantic on
Tuesday bringing a long fetch NNE flow across the local region.
As a result...a generally fair weather pattern will prevail across
the islands most of next week. In addition...the NNE flow will
likely promote below normal temperatures by midweek next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions, with quick -SHRA at all sites and En Route
btwn the USVI and the Leeward islands. Brief MVFR in SHRA and Mtn
top obscr psbl ovr the Cordillera Central thru 23z. In general, no
significant impact is anticipated at local TAF sites. Passing -SHRA
should continue overnight. Sfc wnds fm E-NE at 10-18 kts with
gusts around 25 kts psbl during the afternoon hours...bcmg 5-10
kts aft 24/23z.

&&

.MARINE...Choppy conditions will prevail across the local waters
through Saturday. As a result...Small Craft Advisories continue
in effect across the Atlantic Waters and the Mona Passage. Mariners
can expect seas between 5 and 7 feet and winds around 18 knots across
the these waters, elsewhere seas below 6 feet. A high risk of rip
currents has been extended through Friday afternoon for the Atlantic
beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra and Saint Thomas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 85 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 87 77 87 76 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
546 AM AST Fri Nov 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture levels and showers will increase slowly
through Monday. Although the total moisture drops off after
Monday, low level moisture will continue to bring scattered
showers to the windward side of Puerto Rico in east-northeast
flow and isolated showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands.

At upper levels...A ridge across the Anegada passage will move
east ahead of a rapidly approaching short wave that will pass
through on Monday. High pressure will then build just east of
Jamaica by Thursday and continue near there through next weekend
bringing nearly north flow to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

At mid levels...High pressure over the Bahama islands will shift
west. A short wave trough will move east over Cuba on Sunday and
through the local area on Monday. High pressure will return to the
Bahama Islands when the trough continues into the tropical
Atlantic by mid week next week. Mid level moisture is sparse until
Sunday, but drops off rapidly on Tuesday and remains very dry
through the end of next week.

At lower levels...Low pressure in the southern Caribbean will
align with a strong low pressure moving of the eastern coast of
the United States on Saturday and cross through the local area
Sunday night. This will cause moisture levels over the area to
increase through Monday. High pressure over the western Atlantic
will then increase the gradients over the local area into mid week
next week. Low level moisture will continue over the area through
at least next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Shallow spotty showers moved across the area in
east northeast flow. Although this will taper off in the mid
morning hours, showers on the leeward or west southwest corner of
Puerto Rico and the interior west are expected to develop with a
slight chance of urban and small stream flooding.

A very weak short wave will pass through the area Saturday and
should trigger some more showers over the local area. Then on
Sunday a rapidly moving shortwave will approach from the west and
cross through early on Monday, Shower activity will increase
again.

Moisture drops off at mid levels and overall rainfall amounts
should decrease after Monday. However, low-level moisture
continues out of the adjacent Atlantic from the east northeast
and will keep the windward side of Puerto Rico moist through much
of the rest of next week. With high pressure building in over the
western and central Caribbean at upper levels, flow will shift to
the north and limit the vertical extent of the showers.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across all terminals through the
next 24 hrs. Trade wind showers across the waters will cause VCSH
and brief -SHRA at times. SHRA expected to develop over the central
and SW quadrant of PR between 25/16-22Z, possibly impacting the
flying area of TJPS/TJMZ. Low level winds expected to continue light
and variable over PR through 25/13Z while the USVI and Leewards
should observe ENE winds at around 5-10 knots. After 25/13Z winds
expected to be ENE at 10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will ease only slightly, but expect it
to be enough to lose all small craft advisories by Saturday
morning. With increasing winds early next week, would expect
renewed small craft advisories for seas by Tuesday or Wednesday at
the latest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 85 75 / 30 40 50 50
STT 88 76 86 75 / 20 50 60 60

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
213 PM AST Fri Nov 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge aloft will continue as the dominant weather feature across
the region. This will limit the vertical development of showers
across the islands through at least early this weekend. At low
levels, a high pressure over Western Atlantic will tighten the
local pressure gradient. As a result, fresh trade winds will push
quick passing showers across the windward areas at times.
Then...a polar trough will move across Western Atlantic early
next week. The trough aloft will destabilize the atmosphere to
promote moisture transport late Sunday into late Monday Night
across the local islands. A cooler air mass is forecast to move
from the North to promote below normal temperatures by late
Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick passing showers were observed across the windward sections
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands late in the morning and
into the afternoon hours. The Doppler radar is detecting showers
downwind from Culebra into East Puerto Rico and across Cabo Rojo
and vicinity. But, in general, a fair weather pattern is expected
to prevail, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy. However, showers
can be expected downwind from the islands of Culebra and Vieques
over East Puerto Rico, as well as some showers across the West
Interior and Southwestern municipalities of PR.

This generally dry and stable pattern will continue through
Saturday as a mid- upper level ridge dominates the local region.
Weather conditions are forecast to change late Sunday into Monday
as a polar trough moves across the Western Atlantic. If this
pattern is correct, the potential of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to increase during this period.

A broad high pressure builds over the Western Atlantic on Tuesday,
bringing a northerly wind flow through the upcoming week. As a
result...a fair weather pattern with below normal temperatures
could be expected across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds expected thru the forecast period. VCSH
possible at times...especially across TJMZ and TJPS. ENE Winds
around 20 kt will prevail below FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
Mariners can expect seas between 4 and 6 feet across the local
waters while up to 7 feet across the Atlantic Offshore Waters.
Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore
Atlantic Waters through at least Saturday. A high risk of rip
currents is forecast for the Atlantic beaches through at least
Saturday Morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 75 85 / 40 40 20 40
STT 76 86 75 86 / 30 30 20 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 AM AST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A band of moisture and a passing trough will cause
moisture levels and showers to increase through Sunday night.
Drying and more northerly flow at all levels will bring much drier
weather beginning Tuesday although a few small showers will be
possible on the windward coasts. Conditions will become breezy
Tuesday and Wednesday.

At upper levels...A weak ripple will pass through today in the
westerly flow, then a short wave trough will pass mainly north of
the area on Monday. Afterward, high pressure will build over the
central Caribbean and continue through the weekend.

At mid levels...High pressure over the western Caribbean will
retreat farther west as a short-wave trough passes through the
area on Monday. High pressure then builds northeast into the
Bahama Islands mid-week and continues through the following
Sunday. Mid levels will moisten briefly today through Monday, but
then they will dry into mid-week and continue very dry through the
weekend.

At lower levels...Low pressure will continue in the southern
Caribbean Sea and another low will deepen in the western Atlantic
west of Maryland to pull lower pressure across the local area
Sunday night and Monday. High pressure will build across the
western Atlantic mid-week and increase the local gradients across
the area bringing and increase in winds. Winds will abate by the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few intense, but small and fast-moving showers
came onshore in Puerto Rico and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands.
In San Juan they left 0.12 inches as of 4 AM AST, which was just
enough to bring the total rainfall for the month there to 16.00
inches. This is now the wettest November on record since 1899 when
records began. The previous record was 15.96 inches in 1976. It
is also the fourth wettest month on record. Charlotte Amalie
observed 0.06 inches overnight.

The MIMIC product showed moisture increasing to our northeast and
this band was about to enter the forecast area this morning. This
will mean some additional shower coverage for Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Amounts are expected to be light. Moisture
will continue steady through Sunday and then increase again
slightly on Sunday night and possibly Monday when the best
showers of the week are expected. Rapid drying will follow with
shower activity reaching a minimum as the week progresses. The
strong drying of the mid-levels will not allow deep convection
during this time, however some shallow passing showers will still
be possible along the windward coasts. Winds become more northerly
on Tuesday, but will slowly veer back to the east Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected across all terminals for the
next 24 hrs. Trade wind SHRA will cause VCSH and brief -SHRA at
times. SHRA expected to develop over central and western PR
between 26/16-22Z, possibly impacting the TJMZ terminal and the
vicinity of TJPS, TJBQ and TJSJ. SFC winds are expected to
continue light and variable over PR through 26/13Z while the USVI
and Leewards should observe E to ENE winds at around 5-10 knots.
After 26/14Z winds will be more easterly at 10-15 kts with sea
breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas in the around the local islands are expected to
continue subsiding. Seas at San Juan inner buoy and the Rincon
buoy had subsided below 6 feet in the last hour and will slowly
subside until Monday morning. The increased winds Tuesday and
Wednesday are now expected to bring small craft advisories for
seas of 7 feet or higher to both the Atlantic and the Caribbean.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 74 / 40 30 50 60
STT 86 76 85 74 / 30 30 30 60

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
219 PM AST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid-upper level ridge will continue to weaken the rest
of the weekend as a polar trough amplifies over the Western
Atlantic early next week. The weakening of the ridge aloft is
producing a favorable conditions for shower development across PR
and the USVI. Therefore...expect scattered to numerous showers
developing and affecting portions of PR and the USVI the rest of
the morning. Then...showers and thunderstorms will form over the
Cordillera Central and Western PR during the afternoon hours. A
cooler air mass is forecast to move from the North to promote
below normal temperatures by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Frequent passing showers were detected across the windward
sections during the morning hours. Showers activity increased
during the early afternoon hours across mainland Puerto Rico, but
the U.S. Virgin Islands had a fair weather pattern with sunny
skies and pleasant temperatures. Although, the Doppler Radar
detected numerous showers across most of PR, rainfall
accumulations were minimal. The steering flow is strong enough to
push this shallow showers across most of the islands during the
rest of this afternoon affecting Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands at time.

Weather conditions are forecast to change late Sunday into Monday
as a polar trough moves across the Western Atlantic. Under this
pattern, the potential of showers and thunderstorms is expected
to increase during this period. Then, a broad high pressure
builds over the Western Atlantic by midweek, bringing a northerly
wind flow. As a result...a fair weather pattern with below normal
temperatures could be expected across the region. However,
patches of low level moisture are expected to moves across the
islands from time to time each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
sHRA/TSRA will continue to develop over the central
interior and western PR thru 26/22Z. This activity may lead to brief
MVFR conds across TJMZ and TJBQ the rest of the afternoon. Mountain
obscurations will be likely over the Cordillera Central. E Winds
around 15-20 kt will prevail below FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
Mariners can expect seas up to 7 feet across the Atlantic Waters.
Therefore, a small craft advisory is in effect for the Offshore
waters. Also, a high risk of rip currents is forecast across most
of the Atlantic beaches through tonight. Marine conditions is
forecast to improve between Sunday and Monday.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 74 84 / 30 50 60 60
STT 76 85 74 85 / 30 30 60 60

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
425 AM AST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper trof pattern will hold through at least Monday
afternoon. A mid to high level ridge pattern follows through the
end of the week. Broad surface high pressure enters the western
Atlantic on Monday and remains to the north/northeast of the area
for much of the forecast period. This will increase the trade
winds by mid week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper trof over the western Atlantic and induced
surface trough over Hispaniola will continue to move east and over
the forecast area through at least Monday afternoon. This will
provide favorable upper level dynamics for isolated thunderstorm
development and increase shower activity across the local
islands. A drier and cooler pattern establishes quickly on Tuesday
as upper ridge and surface high pressure builds from the western
Atlantic into the northeastern Caribbean. However, quick trade
wind showers on a northeasterly flow will continue to provide some
brief shower activity across the USVI and northern portions of PR
through the end of the week. Shallow afternoon convection is
forecast each day across portions of the interior and southwestern
PR as the ridge erodes the available moisture.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across all terminals for the next 24
hrs with brief VCSH at times. SHRA expected to develop over central
and NW PR between 27/16-22Z, possibly impacting the TJBQ terminal
and the vicinity of TJMZ and TJSJ. SFC winds expected to continue
light and variable over PR through 27/13Z while the USVI and
Leewards should observe ENE to NE winds at around 5-10 knots.
After 27/14Z winds expected to be more easterly at 10-15 kts with
sea breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to remain between 4 to 6 feet for the
next couple of days across much of the local waters. Therefore,
small crafts should continue to exercise caution. A strong
surface high pressure moving just north of the area by early
Tuesday will increase winds and seas and small craft advisories
will be required for the Atlantic waters and passages by mid
week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 85 76 / 40 60 60 30
STT 85 75 86 75 / 20 60 60 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
135 PM AST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level trough over the Bahamas will swing
across the area late tonight into Monday Morning. This will likely
increase the potential of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Trade wind pattern will establish across the local islands the
most of the week. As a result...passing showers will often affect
the north and east portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Surface high pressure will linger north of the region
from Tuesday through Friday...increasing the trade winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Below normal moisture have prevailed across the
local islands so far today. This low moisture content has limited
the shower development across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. However...diurnal induced showers are still forecast
across the north central and northwest Puerto Rico later this
afternoon due to the sea breeze convergence.

Tonight through Monday...mid-upper level trough approaching from
the west will increase the instability and promote moisture
transport across the local region. This will lead to favorable
conditions for showers and thunderstorms across the regional
waters and portions of the islands over the next 24 hours. Showers
and thunderstorms will start developing across the Mona Passage
during the overnight hours. Then, the activity will concentrate
across the west, north and northeast portions of Puerto Rico on
Monday.

Tuesday through Saturday...surface high pressure will develop
across the Western Atlantic favoring a brisk northeast flow across
the local islands most of the work week. This cool advective
pattern will result in trade winds showers affecting the islands
at times as well as cooler temperatures across the region. The
chance of thunderstorms are slim...mainly because the mid-upper
level ridge will limit the vertical development of the showers
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across most of the terminals this
afternoon, expect TJBQ where TSRA is possible thru 22z. Elsewhere,
VCSH or quick passing -SHRA. SHRA are expected to develop over
central and N-NW PR btwn 27/17-22Z, with one or two isolated TSRA.
SFC winds from the E-ESE at 10 to 15 knots. Wx conds will deteriorate
overnight into Monday as upper trough cross the local region. SHRA/TSRA
will be likely across the flying area on Monday. SE winds of 5-10 kt
continue thru 28/12Z...becoming from the ENE after 28/12Z to around
10-20 kt below 5 kft.

&&

.MARINE...Seas has subsided across the local waters. Local buoys
indicated seas below 5 feet and winds around 10-15 kts. TSRA will
increase across the regional waters overnight into Monday. Fresh
to strong winds will increase again the seas across the regional
waters by midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 84 / 60 60 30 30
STT 75 86 75 86 / 60 60 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
504 AM AST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Base of mid to upper level trough now moving across Hispaniola
and quickly approaching the region will continue to create a southwesterly
winds flow and divergent pattern across the forecast areas today. This
deep layered trough is to reach the northern Leewards later tonight
or early Tuesday morning. A Broad surface trough extending northwards
across the region from the Eastern Caribbean, and old frontal
boundary/shear line northwest of the region, continued to induce
good low level moisture convergence and a south to southeast low
level wind flow. The low level trough is forecast to shift eastward
across the region and weaken by Tuesday, as High pressure builds
across the Western Atlantic and north of the region. This in turn
will increase the east to northeast trade wind flow during the
latter part of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The mid-upper level trough in combination with the
surface trough across the region will continue to increase instability
and provide good moisture transport across the local region today
through early Tuesday. This along with the favorable upper level
support will lead to continued shower activity and thunderstorm
development across the regional waters and portions of the islands
today. Showers and thunderstorms have already affected the local
waters and much of the islands with some enhanced convection already
noted over portions of the Mona Passage and just northwest and
north of Puerto Rico where frequent lightning was observed.

During the rest of the day, expect increased convection over land
areas with good potential for showers and thunderstorm development
with areas of locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Based
on the present and expected wind flow, the heaviest rainfall should
be focused across interior north and northeast portions of Puerto
Rico, as well as over the U.S Virgin islands where periods of locally
heavy rains can be expected.

By Tuesday afternoon and the remainder of the work week...as the
surface high pressure builds across the Western Atlantic and
across the region, expect increasing east to northeast trade
winds due to the tightening of the local pressure gradient. This
scenario will bring cool early morning showery rains to the north
coastal areas and east section of the islands along with cool
early morning temperatures across the region. As the high pressure
ridge gradually builds aloft, the chance for thunderstorm development
and enhanced convection will diminish and be suppressed by Tuesday and
the rest of the work week. Much drier conditions is so far expected
for the weekend based on recent model guidance and the overall weather
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA due to a sfc trof moving west to east across
the forecast area Today will create MVFR conds across most of the
terminals through at least 18z-20z. Mtn top obscd across PR and
brief IFR conds possible at the USVI/Leeward terminals between 12z-
18z. Bkn-ovc layers btw FL030-FL100. Sfc winds southeast around 10
kt with higher gusts near SHRA/TSRA. Winds bcmg east-northeast aft
29/00z.

&&

.MARINE...Showers and thunderstorms will produce hazardous marine
conditions across portions of the local waters during the rest of
the day. Expect seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots most
of today. However, expect increasing winds and seas by Tuesday
and during the rest of the week as the local pressure gradient
tightens and east to northeast trades winds increase. Small Craft
should exercise caution tonight, and small craft advisories will
likely be required for portions of the local waters by Tuesday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 84 76 / 60 40 30 40
STT 84 74 86 76 / 60 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 PM AST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper trough is moving away from the local area
tonight. More stable conditions are expected for the next couple
of days but there will be enough moisture to cause scattered
showers across the local area. The upper trough will be over the
Leewards while an upper ridge will be to our west for the next
several days. SFC low will pass through the local islands on
Wednesday, bringing an increase to the local instability and
shower activity once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The persistent moderate showers dissipated by the
late morning hours over Puerto Rico but lingered into the early
afternoon hours for the USVI. Rainfall totals reached about one
inch in many places across PR but estimated 1.5 inches or so
across SE-PR and in a few sections of Saint Croix island. This
upper trough and shower activity also brought a series of strong
wind gusts which exceeded 30mph in many places but up to 40 mph
from an observed in Saint John island.

After the rainfall ended the local skies cleared up and for the
most of the day the local weather fair and dry. However, a few
showers started popping up across the western interior sections of
PR and a few additional showers are expected to develop through
the rest of the afternoon. The overall moisture will linger for
the next couple of days which will cause scattered showers across
the local area. Overnight and early morning shower are expected
to be brief while afternoon showers are expected to develop across
portions of the interior sections for PR from East to West with a
few showers affecting also the USVI. SFC low is expected to pass
through the local area on Wednesday which will cause an increase
in Theta-E in the lower levels, overall instability and when
combined with the local effects we can observe an overall increase
in shower activity.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals for the
next 24 hours. A few -SHRA may cause VCSH later in the evening.
Winds predominantly from the E to ENE at 10-15KT through28/23Z...decreasing
to 5-10KT overnight.


&&

.MARINE...Seas generally up to 5 feet and winds of 10-20 knots.
Locally higher winds and seas across the waters near the USVI
through mid-afternoon as the trough continues to move east.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 84 76 86 / 40 30 40 40
STT 74 86 76 87 / 40 40 20 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
529 AM AST Tue Nov 29 2016


SYNOPSIS...Upper low will continue to move south across the
eastern Caribbean as ridge continues to build from the west and across
the forecast area today. Ridge pattern will continue through the
end of the week. Induced surface trof across the eastern Caribbean
will move west and across the forecast area on Wednesday. Trade
wind shower activity expected to continue after the passage of the
trof through the end of the forecast period. Surface high pressure
across the western Atlantic and surface trof will maintain
a moderate to fresh northeasterly wind flow through late
Wednesday night, moderate southeasterly winds expected on
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed during
the overnight hours. A few trade wind showers on a northerly
steering wind flow were observed across the Atlantic and offshore
Caribbean waters. A few of these light showers made it over
isolated areas across the northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico.
For the rest of the morning hours, trade wind showers will
continue mainly over the waters with isolated to scattered activity
expected over land areas at times. During the afternoon shallow
afternoon convection is possible across the interior and
southwestern sections of PR.

Later tonight into Wednesday, the surface trof will enhance the
trade wind shower activity across the USVI and the eastern and
northern portions of PR. Isolated thunderstorm activity is
expected on Wednesday afternoon over portions of the western
interior. Low level moisture associated to the surface trough will
linger through at least Thursday. Meanwhile as ridge builds aloft
through the end of the week, moisture will decrease and the
environmental conditions will not be favorable for thunderstorm or
widespread shower activity. Normal to below normal temperatures
will continue for the next few days until winds turn from the
southeast later on Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local flying area for the
next 24 hours. Few -SHRA/SHRA en route btw islands, ovr local Atl
waters and along N coast of PR. VCSH at TJNR/TJSJ/TISX/TIST and TKPK
and TNCM TIL 29/14Z. SCT-BKN lyrs FL022...FL060...Few TOPS nr FL240.
L/lvl wnds fm N at 5-10 kts blo FL100... bcmg fm W and incr w/ht to
max wnd 50-60 kts around FL350. Sfc wnd calm to lgt/vrb...bcm fm NE
10-15 kts with ocnl HIR gust aft 29/14z.


&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will increase late tonight into
Wednesday morning in response to surface trough across the eastern
Caribbean and surface high pressure north of the area. Small craft
advisories will be in effect due to seas up to 8 feet across the
Atlantic waters and passages. Northeast winds will increase
between 15-20 knots. There is a moderate risk of rip currents
today for much of the northern beaches of PR, Culebra and across
St. Croix. A high risk of rip currents is expected on Wednesday
for much of the northern beaches of PR, Culebra and St. Thomas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 77 84 76 / 30 40 40 30
STT 85 76 84 77 / 40 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
322 PM AST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level low over the Anegada Passage will
move southward across the Lesser Antilles through the end of the
work week. At the same time...a mid-upper level ridge builds over
the Central and Eastern Caribbean. Broad surface low located just
east of the Leeward Islands will move west and cross the local
islands on Wednesday. This surface trough/low likely enhanced the
trade winds showers as well as the afternoon convection. Trade
wind pattern will establish across the local islands the rest of
the week. As a result...passing showers will often affect the
north and east portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery shows a cyclonic
circulation associated with the mid-upper level low over the
Leeward Islands. The position of the upper low is producing a
subsidence air mass over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
This unfavorable conditions aloft has limited the shower development
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands so far this afternoon.
However...isolated showers are still possible across the southwest
portions of Puerto Rico later this afternoon due to the sea breeze
convergence.

A broad surface low just upstream of the islands will move west
over the region on Wednesday. This will bring a few rounds of
scattered showers across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands
overnight. Showers will spread over portions of north and east
Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Then...a typical trade wind pattern is
forecast the rest of the week. This pattern will be characterized
by passing showers during the morning hours across the windward
areas followed by some afternoon convection over the west and
northwest Puerto Rico each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds through 30/00Z. VCSH possible at TJPS and TJMZ
this afternoon. Light and variable winds today. SFC low
approaching from the east will cause an increase in passing SHRA
activity and maybe brief TSRA in the area during the overnight
hours...mainly causing VCSH and CIGs near FL080.

&&

.MARINE...Surface high pressure north of the area will generate
fresh easterly winds across the regional waters. As a result...seas
will build across the local waters on Wednesday. Choppy seas of
6-8 feet and winds around 20 knots can be expected Wednesday and
Thursday. Therefore...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from
late tonight through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 84 76 88 / 50 50 30 30
STT 76 84 77 86 / 50 50 30 30