Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
505 AM AST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Bands of showers will pass through the area in
increasing trade wind flow. Showers will taper off as moisture
diminishes through Friday, but high pressure will drive moderate
to fresh trade winds through the week.

At upper levels...A ridge over the central Caribbean will weaken
and then shift to the western Caribbean by mid week. A trough will
deepen and sharpen over the area on Wednesday and move into the
tropical Atlantic by Thursday. A weak ridge will over the area on
Friday leaving high pressure over most of northern South America
and west northwest flow over the local area.

At mid levels...High pressure will continue across the Greater
Antilles and north of Puerto Rico through Saturday. The ridge then
shifts south through the areas on Sunday.

At lower levels...High pressure moved into the western Atlantic
this morning and will build slightly as it moves north of the
local area east of Virginia. Then it will diminish somewhat and
move into the central Atlantic by Friday. A second high will leave
the east coast of the United States on Sunday. These highs will
keep moderate to fresh trade wind flow mostly from the east
northeast. Bands of moisture will pass through the area Monday and
Tuesday. Areas of moisture will pass over the local area south of
a front late in the week and over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Bands of convection some with tops over 15 kft, have
passed through the area leaving amounts up to four tenths of an
inch in northeastern Puerto Rico. San Juan has had 16 hundredths
since midnight. Showers will continue through mid morning while
tapering off, then return overnight tonight for another round.
Accumulations will be light. Although isolated showers will occur
Wednesday through Friday better moisture will not occur until the
weekend. Cold fronts are tending to remain well north of the area,
but are still fostering some upward vertical motion between the
tropical air south of the area and the front over the weekend.
High pressure aloft is tending to keep mid levels relatively dry
otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds are expected at all TAF sites with
brief MVFR conds possible early this morning in and around
JSJ/IST/ISX and the Leeward terminals in brief passing showers.
SHRA development likely aft 27/16z across SW PR, and this may
result in VCSH at JMZ through 27/22z. Easterly winds around 15
knots and sea breeze variations expected today.


&&

.MARINE...Winds increase today through Wednesday and seas become
rough and hazardous beginning early tonight. Small craft
advisories will remain up in the outer Atlantic waters at least
through Friday, but this time the Caribbean waters will also be
affected as seas will be mostly wind driven. Some north swell will
however be present during the week adding some confusion to the
seas in the Atlantic and passages. Winds will exceed 22 knots at
times over the local waters mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 85 76 / 60 30 40 20
STT 85 75 85 75 / 60 30 40 20

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
157 PM AST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge pattern aloft will continue through at least mid week. A
weak shortwave trough is forecast to move near the islands by
Wednesday afternoon. A strong surface high pressure to the north
of the area will produce breezy conditions through the workweek.
Patches of surface moisture will move across the islands each day.
Therefore, a trade wind pattern will dominate the local weather
through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower activity diminished across the islands as a dry air mass
spread from the east over the region. However, the available
moisture combined with the local effects and diurnal heating will
be enough to produce scattered showers across the interior and
southwest portions of Puerto Rico. In addition, shower activity is
expected to form downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands. Elsewhere,
expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with little or no
shower activity. Satellite imagery showed another surge of
moisture near the Lesser Islands, which is expected to reach the
U.S. Virgin Islands by tonight. Therefore, once again another
round of passing showers is expected across the Windward sections
overnight and early Tuesday morning.

A strong surface high pressure over the Western Atlantic will
maintain breezy conditions most of the week. This trade wind
pattern will bring patches of moisture with showers and clouds
from time to time each day.

An upper level shortwave trough will swing by the region around
Wednesday afternoon. Although local instability will increase as a
result of this feature, the limiting factor will be the lack of
surface moisture. After midweek, once again another ridge pattern
is forecast to return.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds will prevail across the flying area. VCSH will affect
the TJMZ later afternoon. Another band of moisture will bring
scattered showers to the forecast area on Tuesday. As a result...
Brief MVFR cigs are possible after 28/10Z at TNCM/TKPK, TIST/TISX
and TJSJ at times. Low level winds of 15-25 kts will continue
below FL150.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to increase. This will produce wind
driven seas between 6 and 8 feet and easterly winds between 15 and
25 knots. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories remains in effect
from this evening through most of the week. Refer to the local
marine products for additional information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 30 40 20 20
STT 75 85 75 85 / 30 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
506 AM AST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Bands of moisture bearing scattered showers will pass
through the area bringing the most rain to the windward sides of
the islands. Showers diminish a little on Thursday but return over
the weekend. Cold fronts, remain well north but will be of some
effect in the local area.

At upper levels...High pressure extends from the southwest
Caribbean across Hispaniola, but will slowly weaken as a trough
moves into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Weak high
pressure approaches from the west, but a much broader trough to
the north forces it to the east over the weekend. A branch of the
subtropical jet will pass by just north of the area early next
week.

At mid levels...High pressure extending out of the northwest
Caribbean will remain just north of the local area until Saturday
when a broad long wave trough passes north of the area from the
west. The trough will dig weakly into the western tropical
Atlantic over the weekend and early next week to leave us in
northwesterly flow. Mid levels remain mostly dry.

At lower levels...High pressure sinking east southeast into the
central Atlantic will cause gradients to tighten over the area
today and Wednesday, resulting in moderate to strong winds across
the local area. Bands of shallow showers moving through will ride
these winds to bring brief modest amounts of rain to the area today
and Wednesday as well as over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fast moving showers in several bands of moisture
moving through the area have brought light amounts of rain to
portions of Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
northeast half of the island of Puerto Rico. The heaviest amounts
fell over the north coastal area of Puerto Rico and the adjacent
waters with amounts of up to four tenths of an inch since midnight
as measured by National Weather Service Doppler Radar. These
showers will continue coming in through Wednesday. East northeast
trade wind flow is relatively moist in the lower levels and
precipitable water varies only a little between now and Monday,
reaching a minimum Thursday morning and then increasing through
Friday and again Monday through the following Wednesday. A
passing trough at upper levels will accentuate the rain early next
week but, over all, amounts will be under one half inch everywhere
even during the wettest episodes. The approach of cold fronts
will assist some of the shallow shower formation, but all fronts
are currently forecast to remain well north of the forecast area
through at least the next 10 to 12 days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites with
brief MVFR conds possible early this morning in and around
TJBQ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX and the Leeward terminals in -SHRA. SHRA
development likely aft 28/16z across SW PR, and this may result in
VCSH at TJMZ through 28/22z. Easterly winds 15-20 knots with sea
breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Sea have begun to increase across all but the most
protected waters and seas at buoy 41043 have risen above 7 feet.
Model solutions have tended to increase from run to run and now
show 9 foot seas in the northeast corner of the forecast area
early Wednesday through Thursday. Have not yet introduced these
heights to our forecast since they will depend on winds stronger
than forecast to verify, but will monitor in case winds of 23 to
25 knots--sustained--are found. Seas in the outer waters are
expected to continue at or above 7 feet through at least Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 30 40 40 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
158 PM AST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will
continue to promote an easterly wind flow for the next few days as
the high pressure moves slowly to the east into the central
Atlantic. Patches of moisture will move into the local area from
time to time, which will help in the development of showers in the
local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The patch of moisture that moved through the local
area combined with the local effects to cause the development of
showers across the local islands, in particular over many sectors
of Puerto Rico and the northern USVI. These showers should
continue to affect the local islands through this afternoon. Also,
the current pattern is in favor of overnight and morning showers
across the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR, then showers across
the interior and western sections of PR in the afternoon. There is
an upper level trough over the area but that is not expected to
have much impact on the severity of the showers affecting the
local islands. Having said that, some of the showers are expected
to be moderate to locally heavy, but with the current and expected
wind speed, these showers are not expected to remain over any one
area for long periods of time.

The high pressure to the north of the local islands will continue
to promote the easterly winds at about 15-25 mph through at least
Wednesday, slowly diminishing on Thursday and Friday as the high
pressure moves east and into the central Atlantic.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds will prevail across the flying area.
However...SHRA over the local area will affect the TAF sites at
times thru this evening. East winds of 15-20 kts with occasional
gusts will continue through 28/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...The marine conditions will continue to be hazardous
for the rest of the week. Local winds of 15-25 kts an be expected
through Wednesday with seas of 6-8 feet across most of the
waters, gradually diminishing starting on Wednesday but likely
continuing to be hazardous through the rest of the week. Small
Craft Advisories will continue through Friday. In addition...a
High Risk of Rip Currents remains in effect through at least
Wednesday Morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 86 / 40 40 30 20
STT 74 86 75 85 / 40 40 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 AM AST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Broad upper trough north and east of the region will become
amplified and sink south across the northeast Caribbean through Thursday.
The local islands should however remain the subsident side of the trough.
The trough will then fill and lift northward on Friday into the weekend.
Mid level ridge will continue to hold and build across the northeast
Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Strong surface high pressure
will continue to build and spread eastward into the central Atlantic
and north of the region through Friday. This will maintain a tight
local pressure gradient and moderate to strong easterly trade
winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The strong easterly trades will transport fragment
of shallow low level moisture across the region through at least
Thursday. This will allow for occasional periods of passing
showers with brief gusty winds especially during the late evening
and overnight hours. During the day shower activity should
diminish across the north and eastern sections of the islands
leaving partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and fresh easterly
trade winds. Afternoon showers should be then focused more over
part of the central and west sections of Puerto Rico, and on the
lee side of the rest of the islands. The shower activity should be
in the form of streamer like convection, therefore no significant
rainfall accumulations are expected the shower activity should be
fast moving and of short duration.

By Friday and into the weekend the local pressure gradient should
weaken in response to the high pressure ridge shifting farther east
across the Atlantic and a cold front entering and moving across
the west Atlantic. Therefore expect lesser moisture transport in
the decreasing easterly trade winds which in turn will result in
lesser amounts of late evening and early morning passing shower
activity with somewhat drier conditions for Friday and Saturday.

By sunday and into early next week, winds are to become more
northeasterly as high pressure ridge will build once again across
the west Atlantic. This pattern will bring periods of early morning
showers due to low level moisture convergence and the increasing
northeast trade winds.

&&

.AVIATION....Brief MVFR conditions will be possible until 01/15z in
the Leeward Islands otherwise VFR conditions will prevail across the
flying area through the forecast period. VCSH in SCT SHRA are
expected across TJSJ, TIST, TISX, TNCM and TKPK today but decreasing
aft 01/15z. SCT SHRA will dvlp btwn 01/18-22Z wrn/swrn PR with some
mtn obscurations. Winds will be mainly from the ENE at 15-30 kts
below FL180. Maximum winds west at 40 kts at FL410 at 02/00z.

&&

.MARINE...Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist across most
of the regional waters except for the local passages and offshore Atlantic
and Caribbean waters, where winds may become fresh to locally strong
at times. The wind driven seas will create hazardous marine conditions
through the end of the work week.

The moderate to strong trade winds will cause seas to rise and
therefore increase the risk of strong rip currents on the north
and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra,Vieques and St
Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 86 75 / 40 40 40 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
322 PM AST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Weak upper level trough will swing across the Northeast
Caribbean later this afternoon. This trough is not strong enough to
break the trade wind cap. As the trough moves east over the Lesser
Antilles...upper level convergence prevails through Thursday
keeping the mid-upper level fairly dry and stable. At the
surface...broad surface high pressure over the Western/Central
Atlantic will continue to produce breezy conditions across the
Northeast Caribbean over the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Brisk easterly winds have prevailed across the
region as strong high pressure northeast of Puerto Rico is
tightening the pressure gradient. A drier air mass has moved
over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico limiting the shower
activity across the region. The rest of the afternoon...showers if
any will develop over Mayaguez and Vicinity as well as some streamers
downwind of Culebra and Vieques. Elsewhere...mostly sunny skies will
prevail through tonight. Moisture below normal and breezy conditions
will continue on Thursday.

Friday into the Weekend...Surface high pressure will move over
the Central/Eastern Atlantic relaxing somewhat the winds but only
diminish from 20-25kt to 15-20kt. Operational models suggest two
moisture bands reaching the local islands on Friday Morning and
Sunday Morning.

A cold front will approach the local islands early next week. As a
result...moisture and instability will surge allowing showers to
develop across portions of the islands the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals
through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers possible
late this afternoon across the southwest quadrant of PR. This could
result in VCSH at JMZ/JPS. Low level wind ESE at 10 kts or less.

&&

.MARINE...Hazardous marine conds will continue most of the week
with winds of 15-25 kts and seas of 6-8 feet across most of the
waters. Small Craft Advisories will continue through at least
Friday. In addition...a High Risk of Rip Currents remains in
effect through at least Thursday Afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 30 30 40 30
STT 74 85 74 85 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
512 AM AST Thu Mar 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will swing across Northeast Caribbean
followed by a mid to upper level ridge, which is expected to build
over the region through the weekend. A surface high pressure will
move eastward north of the region into Central Atlantic today.
The trade wind cap is expected to dominate the upper level trough,
and the surface high pressure will continue to produce breezy
conditions across the Northeast Caribbean. This will result in
trade wind showers at times across the local islands during the
next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tranquil weather conditions prevailed across the local islands
overnight. Just a few passing showers moved across the windward
sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some of these
showers had periods of moderate to heavy rainfall but were quick
and no significant rainfall accumulation was detected.

A weak upper level trough over the Northeast Caribbean will
continue to produce showers across the Local waters. In addition,
a surface high pressure to the north of the region will induce
breezy conditions through the next few days. Under the
aforementioned weather pattern, trade wind showers are expected
to move across the local waters, eastern PR and the USVI through
the morning hours. Overall limited shower activity with trade wind
showers at times are expected today across the forecast area.

A strong surface high pressure to the north of the region will
continue to produce breezy conditions across the region through
the next few days. Then a cold front is forecast to move across
the Western Atlantic and into the regional waters late in the
weekend. If the model are correct...moisture and instability will
increase over the region to result in a better chance for showers
across portions of the islands the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
forecast period. Trade wind showers expected over the waters with
some reaching sections of the islands at time. SHRA possible between
16z-22z across western PR, impacting mainly TJMZ. Easterly winds
will continue at 5-15 knots through at least 13z...increasing 15-25
kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue through at
least Saturday. Mariners can expect seas up to 8 feet and winds
between 15 and 25 knots with higher gusts. A moderate to high risk
of rip current continues across the local waters of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.Climate...
A Hydrological Outlook...ESFSJU...was issued. Refer to the Spring
Flood Outlook to learn more about the current conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 75 / 20 40 30 40
STT 83 75 83 75 / 20 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
140 PM AST Thu Mar 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough will continue to shift eastward
and reach the northern Leewards today, as a mid to upper level
high pressure ridge will quickly build aloft and linger through
the weekend. Surface high pressure ridge will shift farther eastward
into the Central Atlantic today through Friday. This overall pattern
will result in a gradual weakening of the local pressure gradient
and slight decrease in the easterly trade winds on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Moisture transport along with local and diurnal
effects lead to increasing cloudiness and a few showers over
portions of the islands from time to time. Rainfall amounts were
minimal as these showers quickly streamed westward and dissipated.
For the rest of the afternoon, showers will continue to affect
mainly portions of western PR.However, some isolated areas along
the northern slopes and and the San Juan metro may also experience
brief passing showers. Shower activity and cloudiness will diminish
by early evening leaving partly cloudy to mostly clear skies over
land ,and a few lingering showers over the coastal waters.

On Friday, early morning passing showers will be possible along parts
of the north and east coastal sections of the islands. The activity
will be less frequent than recent days. Afternoon showers should then
shift to mainly the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. Similar
conditions expected on Saturday with mostly fair weather skies should
prevail during the day.

By Sunday and into early next week, the surface high pressure
will once again build and spread across the west Atlantic. This
will increase the northeast trade wind flow. By then, moisture
along a dissipating frontal boundary will converge just north of
the region and later be transported across the forecast area in
the dominant northeast wind flow. This scenario will allow a better
chance for early morning and afternoon showers, as the high builds
north of the region and the pressure gradient tightens. Afternoon
showers should be focused mainly across portions of the central
and west to southwest sections of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through the forecast period. Winds
between 10-20kt and gusty from the East expected for the rest of
today with some sea breeze variations at TJPS. VCSH expected for
most of the local terminals through the period but TEMPO SHRA is
possible at TJMZ between 02/18Z and 02/22Z. After 02/23Z winds are
expected to slightly decrease to 10-15KT but continuing from the
East.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions continue to be hazardous and are expected
to be hazardous through at least Saturday. A Moderate to high risk
of rip currents still remain for many of our local beaches. Please
refer to the latest Coastal waters forecast, Marines weather message
and the Surf Zone Forecast issued by WFO San Juan PR for additional
and updated information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 75 85 / 40 30 40 20
STT 75 83 75 82 / 30 20 30 20

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 AM AST Fri Mar 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure ridge will shift farther
eastward into the Central Atlantic today. This overall pattern
will result in a gradual weakening of the local pressure gradient
and slight decrease in the easterly trade winds today and
Saturday. Another strong high pressure system will exit the U.S.
east coast by Sunday, and will build across the western Atlantic
by monday, tightening the pressure gradient. The remnants of a
frontal boundary are expected to move across the area Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Variably cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. An area of cloudiness with
showers moved across the local area. Some isolated to scattered
showers were observed across the eastern half of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. This area of moisture will continue to
affect the region through late this morning. For this afternoon,
an area of dry air is expected to encompass the region, limiting
the shower activity across the region.

A surface high pressure system will continue in control of the
local weather conditions throughout the weekend. Some trade wind
showers are expected, but overall will remain dry. By the early
part of next week, the remnants of a frontal boundary will move
across the region Monday and Tuesday increasing the shower
activity across the region. After the passage of this boundary, a
strong high pressure system will build across the area.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period across the local flying area. Easterly winds between 10-15kt
are expected early this morning, increasing to 15-20kt with
higher gusts after 03/16Z. VCSH are possible across the Leeward,
USVI and TJSJ taf sites. SHRA is possible at TJMZ between 03/18Z
and 03/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...Buoy 41053 in San Juan was showing seas up to 6.5 feet
and buoy 41043 located around 200 miles north northeast of San
Juan was showing seas up to 8 feet. As a result, Small Craft
advisories will continue in effect through at least Saturday as
strong winds continue to produce hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For today, elevated fire danger is expected across
the southern slopes of Puerto Rico. As a result, a fire danger
statement will be issued for the southern plains and southwest
coast of Puerto Rico. Refer to this product for more information.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 74 / 50 20 20 50
STT 86 74 84 72 / 50 30 20 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
136 PM AST Fri Mar 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...SFC high pressure across the central Atlantic will
continue to slowly move further to the east fort he next few days
but breezy conditions are expected through the weekend. Another
SFC high pressure will enter the western Atlantic early next week,
tightening the pressure gradient and causing even stronger winds
and deteriorating marine conditions early next week. Patches of
moisture will continue to pass through the local area. A frontal
boundary currently north of the Bahamas will approach the local
islands by Monday as it weakens for the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As expected, today was a relatively quiet day with
some brief showers across the local islands but with little in
terms of accumulations. The visible satellite and latest radar
imagery is indicating that showers are affecting portions of
the northern and southern slopes as well as the western sections
of PR. Some of the showers that are expected to affect these areas
will be moderate to heavy but are also expected to be brief as
they are moving quickly to the west.

For tonight, isolated to locally scattered showers are expected
across the local waters, eastern PR and the USVI. A similar
pattern is expected for the night time and early morning hours for
the next few days with the exception that starting on Saturday
night into Sunday, the local winds will change to a more ENE-NE
direction, so the showers may also affect northern PR while the
ENE-NE winds persist.

For the afternoon hours, the afternoon showers will be across the
northern slopes and western PR this afternoon but for Saturday and
Sunday afternoon we can expect the showers to be more in the
southwestern quadrant of PR due to the aforementioned shift in
winds to a more ENE-NE direction.

The approaching frontal boundary for Monday may increase
cloudiness and shower activity late Monday into Tuesday morning
but at this time it appears to be mainly across eastern PR and the
USVI.

Maximum daytime temperatures are expected to remain in the mid
80s on Saturday across the lower elevations and in the 70s across
the higher elevations but with the onset of the NE winds and
approaching frontal boundary, the latest guidance is suggesting
daytime temps in the low 80s across the lower elevations and in
the low 70s across the higher elevations.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through the forecast period. Winds
will continue from the east at about 15-20kt and occasional gusts
until 03/23Z, sea breeze variations at TJPS and TJMZ expected
until that time as well. Winds to decrease after 03/23Z to around
10KT but continuing from the east. VCSH expected through the
overnight hours across the local terminals except for TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...Seas continue to be hazardous and are expected to slowly
improve today and Saturday before deteriorating once again late on
Sunday into Monday and continue hazardous for the majority of the
upcoming week. The high risk of rip currents statement and the
surf zone forecast were updated to account for the latest
observations and tendencies. Most of the local beaches either have
a moderate or high risk of rip currents through tonight. The local
seas are still mainly 5 to 8 feet but are expected to slowly
diminish overnight and Saturday but still urging small craft
operators to exercise caution as seas are still expected to be at
least up to 6 feet across the Atlantic offshore waters late
Saturday into Sunday. Hazardous marine and surf zone conditions
expected starting late Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The southern plains of PR have an increased chance
of wildfires today and it was confirmed by the local observations
across the area. however, the very latest observations indicate
that the relative humidity is increasing, which would lower the
chance of wildfires slightly. The breezy conditions and somewhat
lower relative humidity values are expected for the next few days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 74 82 / 20 20 50 20
STT 74 84 72 84 / 30 20 50 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Sat Mar 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central Atlantic
will continue to slowly move further to the east fort the next
few days. A frontal boundary will approach the regional waters
while dissipating. A strong surface high pressure will build
across the western Atlantic behind the front early next week.
Breeze conditions will return to the area by then. Patches of low
level moisture embedded in the trade winds will affect the local
area from time to time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of cloudiness with isolated to scattered
showers affect the northeast, north and north central Puerto Rico
overnight. These showers were moving quickly westward without
leaving any significant rainfall accumulations. Latest satelite
images are showing another area of moisture approaching the U.S.
Virgin Islands early this morning. This area of moisture will move
across the local islands late this morning and this afternoon.
Although these showers are expected to move quickly, some showers
could produce moderate to heavy rainfall in isolated spots.

Trade winds will continue to transport patches of low level
moisture across the area during the weekend. Local area will
continue to be dominated by a surface high pressure system which
is located across the central Atlantic. This feature is expected
to move further east. A frontal boundary will approach the local
area by Monday, increasing somewhat the chances for showers. By
Tuesday, a strong high pressure system is expected to exit the
eastern U.S coast, and is expected to dominate the western
Atlantic. As a result, winds are expected to increase beginning
on Tuesday and continuing through most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local
flying area through the forecast period. Winds will continue from
the east at about 10-15kt this morning increasing to 15-20kt with
higher gusts after 04/16Z. An area of moisture is expected to move
across the area. As a result, some showers are expected in the
vicinity of the TAF sites through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...Seas has diminished somewhat across the local waters.
However, Seas up to 7 feet continue affecting the offshore
Atlantic and Caribbean waters as well as local passages. Small
Craft advisories will continue in effect through this afternoon.
Seas are expected to diminish below small craft advisory criteria
tonight. However, seas will deteriorate once again early next
week, as winds increases up to 22 kts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 74 / 50 50 20 30
STT 85 73 84 73 / 30 50 20 40

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
208 PM AST Sat Mar 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...SFC high pressure across the eastern Atlantic will
continue to slowly move further to the east and the local winds
will be slightly lower than it has been lately but still moderate.
A SFC high pressure will enter the western Atlantic late Sunday
into Monday, tightening the pressure gradient and causing
stronger winds, in the process, causing hazardous marine
conditions starting on Sunday afternoon. A frontal boundary
currently over the Bahamas will approach the local islands by
Monday as it weakens gradually.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Patch of moisture combined with the local effects
and diurnal heating to cause developing showers across Puerto Rico
and the USVI through the day today, particularly in the late
morning and early afternoon hours. For this afternoon, the showers
are expected across the eastern interior of PR as well as
sections across the SW quadrant of PR. The USVI should observe
isolated light showers. Then for tonight, once again, isolated to
scattered showers expected across the local waters, USVI, and
eastern PR.

Not much has changed in the long term, the local winds are
expected to slowly shift to a ENE-NE direction later tonight and
Sunday, continuing for the next several days and becoming stronger
as the SFC high pressure enters the western Atlantic. In terms of
weather, we can expect the typical morning showers across the
eastern and northern sections of PR as well as across the USVI in
the overnight and early morning hours and across the SW quadrant
of PR in the afternoon on Sunday. As the frontal boundary
approaches, clouds and rain are expected to persist on Monday and
Tuesday, at this time most of the rain is expected over eastern PR
and the USVI but the amounts are not expected to be significant
enough to cause significant flooding.

temperature forecasts continue to demonstrate a cooling trend of a
few degrees for the first part of next week while we have more
cloud cover and some rain. Highs in the low 80s across the lower
elevations and in the mid to low 70s across the higher elevations
are possible. Low temps in the low 70s across the lower elevations
and in the upper 50s to 60s across the higher elevations are
possible.


&&

.AVIATION...Sct-Bkn cld lyrs en route btw islands and over coastal waters...
FL025...FL050..Fl080. Isold-Sct SHRA/-SHRA ovr coastal waters and
btw PR and Nrn Leewards. Recent TJSJ upper air sounding data suggests
wind blo FL 250 fm btw 15-25 kts...then backing and bcm fm W and incr
w/height abv.Sfc wnds fm E-NE incr to ne 15 knots with ocnl higher
gust to nr 25 kts psbl.


&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisory across the Atlantic offshore waters
has been canceled for today. However, marine conditions will
quickly deteriorate on Sunday afternoon and evening. For the rest
of today, seas will be generally 3 to 6 feet and choppy with winds
up to 20 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 80 / 50 20 30 50
STT 73 84 73 83 / 50 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 AM AST Sun Mar 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Trade wind showers are expected today under NE
winds. Weather conditions will shift to breezy and showery
Mon-Tue as a surface front and associated prefrontal trough
approaches from the north northwest with the local pressure
gradient tightening across the local islands. A seasonable
weather pattern is expected Wed through the upcoming weekend
but still breezy.

&&

.Short Term / Sunday through Tuesday /...
Variably cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands overnight. Isolated showers were noted mainly
across the coastal waters with some of these showers affecting
the north and northeast sections of Puerto Rico. These showers
were moving quickly without leaving any significant rainfall
accumulations. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the
trade winds will continue to affect the local islands today.

Weather conditions will shift to breezy and showery Mon-Tue
as a surface front and associated prefrontal trough approaches
from the north northwest with the local pressure gradient
tightening across the forecast area. As a result, a rather wet
pattern is forecast to affect the local area beginning early
Monday and continuing through at least Tuesday night as the
aformentioned surface front and associated prefrontal trough
affects the local area.

&&

Long Term / Wednesday through Sunday /...
As the remnants of the surface front move further south, a drier
air mass will move in Wed and hold through the upcoming weekend.
However, latest guidance continues to suggest patches of low level
moisture moving across the local islands at times. Migratory
surface highs north of the area will promote a tight pressure
gradient with east northeast winds much of the forecast period. At
upper levels, a short-lived mid level trough is expected Wed-Thu
with a ridge pattern building in from the west Fri-Sat and hold
through early next week.

As a result, expect breezy conditions and a seasonable weather
pattern with trade wind showers at times across windward areas
followed by some locally induced afternoon showers across leeward
areas Wed through the upcoming weekend. Pleasant temperatures
will continue under northeasterly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area
through at least 05/22z. However, passing showers embedded in the
easterly trades will result in isolated to scattered -SHRA/SHRA
across the Nrn Leewards, USVI and TJSJ/TJNR Terminals fm 05/10Z-
05/16Z, and later across TJMZ. This can result in tempo MVFR
conditions. Surface winds are expected mainly from the east at 10
to 15 kts this morning, shifting to the northeast by late morning
into the afternoon hours and increasing to around 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface highs north of the area will tighten the local pressure
gradient to result in fresh northeast winds much of this week. A
northerly swell is forecast to invade the local Atlantic waters
by Mon. Therefore, rough and hazardous seas are expected to
prevail during the next several days. Seas 5 to 7 feet with
occasional seas up to 9 feet today...but building 6 to 8 feet with
occasional seas up to 10 feet tonight. Building seas will also
result in a high risk of rip currents late today and into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 81 74 / 40 60 60 50
STT 86 73 83 73 / 40 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
330 PM AST Sun Mar 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Weakly induced surface trough across the region and
High pressure ridge continued to build and spread eastward across
the western Atlantic. Weather conditions will gradually become
breezy and showery with increasing cloudiness on Monday and Tuesday
as a surface frontal boundary and the associated prefrontal trough
sinks southwards across the region, and the local pressure gradient
tightens. Overall breezy conditions and a seasonal weather pattern
is expected by Wednesday and the remainder of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Short Term / rest of Today through Tuesday /... Variably cloudy
skies will become partly cloudy to mostly clear across the islands
by late afternoon and early evening with decreasing showers. However
by late night and early morning the increasing northeast trade winds
will increase ow level moisture convergence and bring patches of low
level moisture with passing showers to the north and east coastal
sections of the PR and the northern U.S Virgin Islands.

For the rest of Monday and Tuesday conditions are expected to
become breezy with increasing cloudiness and better chance for
shower activity as the frontal boundary and associated moisture
sinks south across the islands and coastal waters. The high pressure
ridge building across the western Atlantic will increase the northeast
trade wind flow and consequently tighten the local pressure gradient.
As a result of this scenario,expect a somewhat wetter pattern across
the local area due to increasing low level moisture convergence at
least through Tuesday.

Long Term / Wednesday through Sunday /...
As the remnants of the frontal boundary sinks further south of the
region while dissipating, a drier air mass will begin to filter in
by Wednesday and improve through rest of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. Recent model guidance still suggest the brisk
northeasterly winds will continue to advect patches of low level
moisture across the local islands at times especially during the
late evening and early morning hours. Present long term model
guidance also suggest that the migratory surface high pressure north
of the region will create a tight pressure gradient with northeast
winds to prevail much of the forecast period. At upper levels, a
a weak mid to upper level polar trough is expected to move north of
the region Wednesday through Thursday with a ridge pattern building
across the region from the west late Friday and into the weekend.

As a result, expect breezy conditions and a seasonable weather
pattern with trade wind showers at times across windward areas
followed by some locally induced afternoon showers across Leeward
areas Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. Cool and refreshing
early morning and daytime temperatures can be expected under the
prevailing northeasterly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...In general, VFR conditions are expected through at least 05/22z.
However, trade winds showers are expected over/in the vicinity of
TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TJMZ/TISX. Moisture is forecast to increase aft 05/23z
and SHRA will become more frequent and possibly affecting the terminals.
Brief prds of SCT-BKN ceilings nr FL020 and FL080 are possible at
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJBQ aft 06/00z. E-NE Sfc winds at 10-15 knots with
higher gusts expected this afternoon, increasing at 15 to 20 with
higher gusts along the coastal areas aft 05/23z.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and Seas are expected to increase overnight resulting
in hazardous marine conditions. Therefore, small craft advisories are
in effect for the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean waters and the Mona
passage the rest of this afternoon. Small craft operators should exercise
caution elsewhere. After 8 pm AST tonight, small craft advisories will
be in effect for most of the local waters.

Beachgoers can expect a moderate to high risk of rip currents
tonight through most of the work week. Please refer to the latest
surf zone forecast issued by the National Weather Service WFO San
Juan PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 81 74 81 / 60 60 50 50
STT 73 83 73 83 / 60 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Mon Mar 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Pre-frontal trough will bring cloudiness and showers
to the local islands until at least Tuesday Night. Breezy to windy
conditions and hazardous seas will continue over the several
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday] ...

Scattered to numerous showers were observed across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. These showers produced brief
periods of very heavy rainfall in some areas including the San Juan
metropolitan area. Rainfall accumulations were up to one inch in
isolated spots.

A rather wet pattern is expected for today and continuing through
at least Tuesday afternoon. This activity is primarily associated
with a prefrontal trough which will continue to affect the region
for the next couple of days. As this trough remains over the
area, scattered to numerous showers will continue to affect mainly
the north and northeast sections of Puerto Rico as well the U.S.
Virgin Islands. In general, most if not all of Puerto Rico will
receive some rainfall during the next 24 to 36 hours as the trough
linger over the area. By Wednesday, the prefrontal trough will
exit the local area as a drier air mass invades the local region.

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday] ...

Easterly winds will return to the forecast area on Thursday as
surface high pressure moves over the Central Atlantic. Deep
moisture associated with the remnants of the frontal boundary
will move westward over the local Caribbean Waters between
Thursdayand Friday. Moisture over the local islands will remain
at normal levels. As a result...morning showers will likely affect
the windward areas followed by scattered convection developing
over the West Interior and Western PR each afternoon. Another
frontal boundary will move over the Western Atlantic early next
week...favoring the moisture transport across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered to numerous showers will continue to affect
most terminals through the forecast period. Brief periods of MVFR
conditions can be expected at TJSJ, TIST, TISX from time to time as
these showers pass by. Breeze conditions are expected across all TAF
sites. Low level winds will be mainly northeast at 15 to 20 kts with
higher gusts in showers.

&&

.MARINE...Strong winds and hazardous seas will continue most of
the week. Therefore...Small Craft and High Surf Advisories as well
as Rip Current Statement will remain in effect over the next few
days. Fresh to strong winds will prevail most of the week...as a
result choppy conditions will likely continue the second part of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 73 80 72 / 70 70 70 30
STT 81 71 79 72 / 70 70 70 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
411 PM AST Mon Mar 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Pre-frontal trough and approaching frontal boundary
will continue to bring cloudiness and showery conditions to the forecast
region through Tuesday as the frontal boundary is expected to sink
southwards across the region while dissipating. This will result in
continued breezy to windy conditions with periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM (rest of today through Wednesday...The showers and windy
conditions will continue into the evening hours as the frontal boundary
is expected to sink southwards across the islands. Therefore expect
periods of locally heavy downpours and gusty winds especially along
the north and east coastal areas, and municipalities along the central
mountain range of Puerto Rico. The shower activity should then increase
and spread over portions of the U.S Virgin Islands later in the evening
and early Tuesday morning. So far winds between 20 to 25 mph with gusts
up to 35 mph have been reported in some areas. For that reason, the
potential minor flooding and ponding of water on roadways and poor
drainage areas as well and periods of strong gusty winds will remain
high.

Overnight and Tuesday...Moisture along the frontal boundary will continue
to pool across the region. This will result in periods of rain, and
cloudy and breezy conditions. Expect local minimum temperatures in
the coastal areas around the low 70s and around the low 60s across
the mountainous areas. Daily high temperatures should be in the high
70s to low 80 along coastal areas. By Wednesday, a much drier and stable
air mass will spread across the region as the high pressure will build
north of the area.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...Easterly winds will return to
the forecast area by Thursday as surface high pressure moves over the
Central Atlantic. Moisture fragments associated with the remnants of
the frontal boundary will then move westward over the Caribbean Waters
between Thursday and Friday. Some of this shallow moisture will cross
parts of the islands from time to time. Morning showers will likely
affect the windward areas followed by isolated to scattered convection
over parts of the central interior and Western PR each afternoon. Based
on recent model guidance, another cold front is forecast to enter and
move over the Western Atlantic during the latter part of the upcoming
weekend. This in turn will favor a weakening of the local pressure
gradient, as the Atlantic high pressure shifts further east and an
induced surface trough develops across the region. This pattern should
again allow for better chance for moisture transport and increased
shower activity across the forecast region.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly cloudy and rainy conditions are expected to
continue across the local flying area tonight. Brief periods of
MVFR conditions are expected over TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TJMZ/TISX due to
BKN-OVC ceilings btw FL020 and FL080. Also, IFR conds are possible
with the +SHRA/SHRA at times with mtn top obscr ovr parts of the
central mountain range or PR. Moisture is forecast to continue over
the islands through the FCST period. NE sfc winds btwn 15-25 kt with
higher gusts expected through the fcst prd.

&&

.MARINE...Recent surrounding buoys across the Atlantic and local
passages continued to suggest hazardous seas between 8-12 feet in
some areas with winds around 22 knots with gusts up to 32 knots.
Mariners can expect hazardous marine conditions through most of
the work week. For additional information refer to the following
products: Coastal Water Forecast (CWFSJU), Marine Weather Message
(MWWSJU), Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast
(SRFSJU).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 80 72 81 / 70 70 30 30
STT 71 79 72 81 / 70 70 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Tue Mar 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Pre-frontal trough and frontal boundary will continue
to bring cloudiness and showery conditions to the forecast region
through at least Wednesday as the frontal boundary is expected to
sink southwards across the region while dissipating. This will
result in continued breezy to windy conditions with periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall from time to time. A very dry air mass
will encompass the region behind the front Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Moisture from the prefrontal trough is making its way
through the local area today and this moisture is expected to stay
with us through the rest of the day into tonight. That said, mostly
cloudy skies with scattered to numerous showers are expected across
the local area today, especially across the local waters, USVI, and
northern and eastern PR. These rain showers are not producing high
amounts of rain and most of the showers are not expected to cause
significant flooding, but the showers may be persistent. The
weakening front should be over the local islands by early Wednesday,
which will bring drier air and therefore the shower activity and the
cloudiness is expected to diminish.

The SFC high pressure to our north will keep the local pressure
gradient relatively tight, so the winds will continue to be breezy
today, likely in the 15-25 mph with occasional higher gusts across
the windward areas of PR and across the USVI, Vieques, and Culebra.

This cloudiness and rain should keep the daytime temperatures
relatively cool and the lower elevations of PR may observe daytime
max temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s while the higher elevations
should observe daytime temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. The USVI
should observe temps in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...Seasonable weather conditions are expected from
this Friday through next Wednesday. High pressure system is
expected to dominate the northeast Caribbean with only some
patches of low level moisture affecting the local area from time
to time. Otherwise, tranquil weather conditions are forecast to
occur.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds expected through the forecast period.
However there will be rain and clouds across the local flying area
which will cause CIGS at about FL040 and brief moments of MVFR conds
at different points during the day due to lower CIGS and possible
lower VIS due to SHRA. The local winds will remain relatively strong
from the ENE to NE at 15 to 25KT with occasional gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Latest buoy observations were showing seas up to 16 feet
with periods of 14 seconds at buoy 41043 located around 170 nm north
northeast of San Juan. In addition, buoy 41053 in San Juan was
showing seas near 13 feet at 10 seconds. As a result, decided to
issue a High Surf Warning and a Coastal Flood Warning for this
morning as dangerous surf conditions and minor coastal flooding
are expected through this afternoon. Model data has been underestimating
this event for almost 3 to 4 feet at buoy 41043. Refer to latest
CFWSJU product for latest information.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 72 81 72 / 70 30 30 20
STT 82 72 82 72 / 60 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
324 PM AST Tue Mar 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Frontal boundary will continue sink southwards across
the region during the rest of the evening and overnight hours.
This will maintain cloudiness,breezy to windy and showery conditions
across the islands and local waters. These conditions are still
forecast to persist at least until early Wednesday as the boundary
and associated moisture is expected to gradually dissipate south
and east of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Rest of today through Thursday)...Continued breezy to
windy conditions with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall from time
to time was experienced across the islands and coastal waters today.
The frontal boundary and associated moisture field is expected to
sink further southwards and reach the south of the islands by late
this evening and overnight. In the meantime expect periods of showers
with gusty winds to continue across the forecast area during the
rest of the evening and overnight hours, as moisture will continue
to converge and pool across the northeastern Caribbean.

By late Wednesday morning and through Thursday...a much drier and
stable air mass will begin to filter and spread across the region
as the surface high pressure will continue to shift north of the
region and into the central Atlantic. Therefore expected less frequent
shower activity and diminishing east to northeast trade winds.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday) ...An overall seasonable
weather pattern is expected from Friday through next Wednesday.
However high pressure ridge should lift farther north and east of
the region in response to a cold front entering and moving across
the western Atlantic. By Saturday a weakly induced surface trough
across the region should help create a more east to southeast wind
flow with decreasing trade winds. On Sunday and into early next
week the cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the
Atlantic inducing a weak frontal trough and some low level moisture
convergence across the region. This will therefore increasing the
chance for more localized shower activity across the islands. However
no significant weather feature is expected to directly affect the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION....-SHRA/SHRA with BKN to OVC ceilings between FL020 and
FL080 will continue through at least 08/06z. Brief MVFR and IFR
condtions through at least 08/00z. SHRA/-SHRA activity is
expected to decrease across the flying area aft 08/12z as a dry
air mass will filter in across the flying area. fc winds from the
NE at 15-25 kt with frequent gusts around 35 kt expected thru the
fcst period.

&&

MARINE...Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the evening
hours. Mariners can expect seas between 8 to 14 feet with occasional
seas to near 18 feet offshore. Winds between 20 to 25 mph with occasional
gusts between 30 to 40 knots will remain likely overnight. For additional
information refer to the following products: Coastal Water Forecast
(CWFSJU), Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU), Coastal Hazard Message
(CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 72 82 / 40 40 20 20
STT 72 82 72 83 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Wed Mar 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Weather conditions are expected to slowly improve today
as a drier air mass moves in from the north. Moisture advection
is expected once again Fri-Sat to result in cloudiness and showery
conditions early the upcoming weekend. A seasonable weather pattern
is expected to prevail next week under building mid to upper level
ridge pattern. Hazardous marine conditions as well as dangerous
surf conditions will continue today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday...through Friday...

Moisture from the prefrontal trough is slowly moving south and
should be south of the local islands by the mid morning hours.
That said, variably to mostly cloudy skies are expected with
isolated to scattered light showers are expected, especially
across the local waters, USVI, and northern and eastern PR in the
morning hours. The chance of rain is expected to decrease for the
afternoon hours. These rain showers are not producing high amounts
of rain and most of the showers are not expected to cause any
flooding. The remnants of the frontal boundary is expected to move
over the islands by this afternoon, which will bring the drier
air we are expecting and therefore the decrease in shower
activity. After the drier air moves in this afternoon, the
precipitable water is forecast to decrease to under an inch
according to the GFS, so if the drier air gets here soon enough in
the day, the chances of afternoon rain across the western and
southwestern sections of PR are smaller, but if the drier air gets
here late in the afternoon then there is a chance of scattered
shower development across the southwestern quadrant of PR this
afternoon and isolated brief showers elsewhere, but mainly fair
weather is expected this afternoon.

The SFC high pressure to our north-northeast will continue to keep
the local pressure gradient relatively tight, so the winds will
continue to be breezy today once again, likely in the 15-25 mph with
occasional higher gusts, mainly across the northern half and eastern
PR and across the USVI, Vieques, and Culebra. Southern PR is
expected to observe slightly lighter winds, about 10-15mph with
occasional gusts to 20mph.

The lingering cloudiness and early morning light rain should help
keep the daytime temperatures relatively cool with daytime max temps
in the lower 80s across most of the lower elevations of PR,
southern PR reaching the mid 80s, while the higher elevations should
observe daytime temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The USVI should
observe temps in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...

Mid level trofiness across the eastern Caribbean will prevail
through at least early the upcoming weekend with a mid to upper
level ridge building in Sun-Mon. The ridge pattern aloft is then
expected to erode Friday and into Saturday as a mid to upper level
trough moves across the central Atlantic. A broad surface high
pressure across the central Atlantic will promote easterly winds
15- 20knots Fri-Sat becoming east southeast Sun-Mon as a surface
low develops across the western Atlantic. Easterly winds Fri-Sat
will promote once again moisture advection with precipitable water
values reaching 1.80 inches. Moisture across the local islands
will erode Sun and into next week as the ridge pattern aloft
builds.

Therefore under this evolving pattern, expect cloudiness and
showery conditions Fri-Sat. The weather pattern will shift to a
more seasonable conditions Sun and into next with trade wind
showers at times. Warmer temperatures possible Sun and early
next week under east southeast winds.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conds expected through the forecast period.
CIGS between FL030 and FL060 will continue through at least 08/14z.
The lights SHRA activity currently present is expected to decrease
after 08/12z as a dry air mass move across the flying area. SFC
winds from the ENE at 15-25 kt with frequent gusts up to 35 kt
expected thru the fcst period. There will be variations in the winds
due to sea breeze for TJPS, easterly winds at 10-15kt gusts to 20kt
or so expected after 08/13Z for TJPS.


&&

.MARINE...Although seas are expected to slowly subside today,
conditions will continue to be hazardous. Seas 10 to 12 feet with
occasional seas up to 14 feet and easterly winds 20-25 knots are
expected to prevail throughout the day. This will continue to
result in dangerous breaking wave of 11-13 feet across coastal
areas. Some coastal flooding also expected along the Atlantic
shoreline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 82 72 / 30 20 30 40
STT 82 72 83 73 / 30 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
338 PM AST Wed Mar 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Low level high pressure ridge centered in the vicinity
of Bermuda will slowly drift east. This will result in a more
relaxed pressure gradient. Remnants of old frontal boundary over
the Leeward Islands to drift slowly westward.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This evening through Friday...As the low level high
pressure ridge drifts east the pressure gradient will slowly relax
across the Atlantic waters resulting in wind speed diminishing and
shifting more to the east. Remnants of an old frontal boundary
currently over the Leeward Islands will then be advected westward
and affect our local area occasionally with increasing clouds and
shower activity starting Thursday morning and possibly lasting
through Friday afternoon. Will indicate scattered showers in the
forecast to account for this, but will not expect significant
rainfall amounts. A high risk of rip currents will continue many
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands Tonight and
Thursday due to rough seas and strong surface winds.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)...The high pressure ridge
will move further east as another frontal trough exit the U.S.
eastern seaboard. This will further relax the pressure gradient
and in turn allow for the low level wind flow to turn more from
the southeast. This should result in more seasonal temperatures
returning to the local islands. Latest model guidance keep the
frontal boundary well to the north of the Eastern Caribbean no
impacting our area. With no significant changes in the synoptic
pattern, generally dry conditions with isolated showers here and
there should be expected.


&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all TAF
sites through 09/12z. VCSH could occur across TIST, TISX and TJSJ
after 09/12z with a more significant increase in shower activity
late Thursday and Friday. Low level winds will continue mainly
northeast at 15 to 20 kts through this evening but shifting to
more eastward after 09/06z.


&&

.MARINE...Even though the low level high pressure ridge is
expected to drift east and wind speed is expected to diminish
across the local waters...seas should remain rough with small
craft advisory conditions persisting at least through Friday
evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 83 / 20 30 40 40
STT 72 83 73 83 / 20 30 40 40