MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1178
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC/NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478...
   
   VALID 140619Z - 140815Z
   
   06Z SFC ANALYSIS/RADAR DEPICT THE REMNANTS OF ALBERTO JUST S OF
   KAGS.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SC/NC
   AND GIVEN STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW
   SHOULD MIGRATE NEWD ALONG THIS PATH THROUGH 12Z. 
   
   THE LONGEST-LIVED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN LIFTING NWD ACROSS SC
   WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS TRACKING EAST OF US 52.  HERE...TSTMS HAVE
   BEEN ENCOUNTERING THE WARM FRONT AS THEY MOVE NEWD.  0-1KM SHEAR
   DERIVED FROM THE CHS VWP WAS QUITE STRONG...ON THE ORDER OF 360+
   M2/S2 AND CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES. 
   
   SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...BUT STRONGER
   STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE EWD TO THE COAST.  THIS
   WILL BRING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES TO AREAS NEAR/E
   OF KFLO THROUGH 08Z.  OTHER STORMS COULD FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE NWD
   INTO SRN COASTAL NC LATER THIS MORNING.  AS THE STRONGEST LLJ AXIS
   SHIFTS EWD...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD UP THE COAST INTO ERN NC
   NEAR/AFTER 12Z.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   33038147 34907863 35627745 34977644 34137670 33047839
   32057983 31798065 32328145

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1179
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL ND AND CNTRL/NERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 140658Z - 140930Z
   
   NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
   SCNTRL ND AND CNTRL/NERN SD.  HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THE STRONG GRT BASIN UPPER LOW.  THIS HAS LIKELY AUGMENTED THE
   LLJ WITH 30 KT H85 SLY FLOW NOW BEING OBSERVED ON THE RAPID CITY
   VWP.  THE LLJ WAS IMPINGING ON AN H85-H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE
   INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE INCREASING TSTMS
   EARLY THIS MORNING JUST TO THE NE OF A STRONG CAP SITUATED OVER THE
   HIGHER PLAINS.
   
   RUC GUIDANCE HAS THE LLJ GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH THE MORNING...
   MAXIMIZING WARM ADVECTION FROM SCNTRL ND SEWD INTO ECNTRL SD.
   THUS...ONE OR MORE BANDS OF STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THESE AREAS
   THROUGH 09-12Z.  EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WAS GREATER THAN 50 KTS.
   THIS WILL ENCOURAGE INITIAL CELLS TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE GIVEN THE
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.  THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY GIVEN
   UPDRAFT WILL PROBABLY SHORT-LIVED AS THE NUMBER OF STORMS INCREASE.
   BUT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD STORMS.
   
   ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD WHILE STRONGER CELLS FAVOR THE
   NWRN EDGE OF THE BANDS CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND STEEPER
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   45170143 47550355 47720253 47100048 45959691 44579661
   43949739 44109982

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1180
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0943 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND/NRN-NERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141443Z - 141615Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
   CENTRAL ND INTO NRN-NERN SD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.  STRONGEST
   ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG
   WIND GUSTS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT REGION WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH
   PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN NRN WY ESEWD
   ACROSS SRN SD INTO SRN MN...WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH/WARM FRONT
   EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS NWRN SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN ND.  12Z
   SOUNDINGS INDICATED A STRONG CAP REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS STATES...
   WITH ONGOING AND NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FORMING AND TRACKING
   SEWD ALONG THE NRN-NERN PART OF THE CAP.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
   A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER SERN MT...WITH THIS IMPULSE
   EXPECTED TO DECREASE ITS NEWD MOVEMENT AND TRACK MORE ELY INTO THE
   DAKOTAS TODAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
   TO AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING
   INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN ND/NRN SD...WITH ACTIVITY
   REMAINING MAINLY ELEVATED.  HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS MID LEVEL IMPULSE
   SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN SSWLY LLJ INTO CENTRAL/ERN SD AIDING IN
   FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
   
   ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND SWRN
   MN HAS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION...AND MAY TEND TO
   LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEW ACTIVITY OVER
   SRN ND/NRN SD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   45880125 46330150 46660123 46610005 46429874 46079762
   45509698 44889727 44689794 45259905 45560073

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 479...
   
   VALID 141513Z - 141715Z
   
   ...ISOLD TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS
   THE REMAINS OF ALBERTO MOVE ACROSS ERN NC...
   
   LATEST SFC AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS PLACE ALBERTO BETWEEN SSC
   /SUMPTER SC/ AND UDG /DARLINGTON SC/ WITH RECENT WIND SHIFT TO NORTH
   AT SUMPTER. WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO
   NEAR MEB/PGV...WHERE WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED S/SELY COMPONENT.
   STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS /2-4 MB PER 3 HOURS/ ARE FOCUSED NEAR
   FORT BRAGG NC WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ISALLOBARIC ELY COMPONENT.
   VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
   THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS
   THE ERN PORTIONS OF NC. LATEST 0-1KM SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 300-500
   M2/S2 PER VAD WIND DATA FROM BOTH RALEIGH AND MOREHEAD CITY RADARS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   34657827 34927912 35237838 36437540 35687538 34907537
   34257706 34677766

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY / SOUTH CENTRAL MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141636Z - 141800Z
   
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN WY INTO SOUTH
   CENTRAL MT.  SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS
   MOVING NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY/SRN MT INTO A MORE
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND/OR WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EWD
   MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THIS SAME AREA OF INSTABILITY.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED
   OVER ERN ID/NRN UT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWLY 70 KT MID LEVEL JET
   EXTENDING FROM UT INTO SRN WY. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH/PACIFIC COLD
   FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...SOME
   MARGINALLY SEVERE...FROM SWRN MT INTO NRN-NERN UT.  ADDITIONAL
   STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY/SOUTH CENTRAL
   MT TO THE WEST OF THE BIG HORN BASIN. 
   
   A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS OVER CENTRAL AND NERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO
   RESULT IN MOIST ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE BIG HORN BASIN.  THIS
   COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE
   AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/...
   WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AIDING IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
   AFTERNOON.  ENELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT BENEATH DEEP SSWLY FLOW REGIME
   WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR
   SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   43840942 44560937 46100936 46770947 46910832 46840730
   46680646 44940597 43610685 43430730 43470845 43590918

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC/OUTER BANKS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 479...
   
   VALID 141847Z - 142045Z
   
   ...TORNADO THREAT IS BECOMING MORE LIMITED AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
   NORTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF NC
   INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS...
   
   CENTER OF ALBERTO CIRCULATION IS NOW AROUND 60-70 MILES SE OF
   RALEIGH-DURHAM...WITH WINDS ALREADY VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
   GSB/ISO. LATEST RADAR DATA FROM MOREHEAD CITY NC SHOW A FEW STRONG
   CELLS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE OUTER BANKS. ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR
   REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY NEAR HSE/MQI WHERE SFC
   WINDS ARE SELY...MAXIMIZING LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY.
   EARLIER REPORT OF A TORNADO WAS RECEIVED IN MOREHEAD CITY A COUPLE
   HOURS AGO. 
   
   THREAT WILL END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...AND WATCH
   479 IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 20Z.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
   
   34697611 35027705 35617752 35827695 36347573 36397536
   34897521

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481...
   
   VALID 142032Z - 142100Z
   
   WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR SERN MT.
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO
   SPREAD NWD AND NOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT SEWD INTO SERN
   MT/WEST CENTRAL SD...WHILE A COLD FRONT PROGRESSED EWD THROUGH SOUTH
   CENTRAL MT AND INTO CENTRAL WY.  SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST WARM
   SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/
   AND A WEAKENING CAP ACROSS SE MT/FAR NRN-NERN WY.  STRONG SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH WAS NOW CENTERED OVER ERN ID/WRN WY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH
   THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REST OF NRN WY
   AND NRN/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPORTING THREAT FOR
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
   REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
   
   SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ OVER NORTH
   CENTRAL MT AND STRONGER CAP PER 18Z GGW SOUNDING SUGGEST SEVERE
   THREAT ACROSS NRN MT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH THE
   ARRIVAL OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
   
   48150648 45930519 44960520 45000841 45040937 46481029
   48061066 48951104 48900828

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/ERN CO/EXTREME WRN KS/EXTREME SW SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 142033Z - 142200Z
   
   ...ISOLD HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG
   AND EAST OF LEE TROUGH...
   
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW/MID 100S ACROSS
   THE CO HIGH PLAINS INTO SW NEB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN
   ISOLD STORM FORMED JUST EAST OF SNY WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED
   CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS SE CO NEAR LAA AND ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS.
   LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL BE MOST
   FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   GIVEN EXCESSIVE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS...ISOLD STRONG/DAMAGING
   MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   37050188 37020292 37800376 39460358 40610371 42310435
   43840435 44330409 44360280 41490151 39200127 38100120

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0547 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / SWRN ND / NWRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482...483...
   
   VALID 142247Z - 150015Z
   
   THROUGH 01Z...EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM
   NEAR AND S OF MLS INTO FAR SWRN ND AND NWRN SD.  AN ADDITIONAL WW
   MAY BE NECESSARY TO THE N OF WWS 482 AND 483.
   
   AS OF 2225Z...BILLINGS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS EXHIBITING
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER ERN ROSEBUD COUNTY MOVING 220/30 KTS.
   HAIL FOUR INCHES IN DIAMETER WAS REPORTED WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST
   CELL WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT STORM MOTIONS
   INDICATES THAT NRN PORTION OF THIS STORM CLUSTER WILL MOVE N OF WW
   482 INTO PRAIRIE COUNTY MT BETWEEN 2330 AND 0000Z.  INTENSIFICATION
   OF MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CARTER COUNTY MT INTO
   HARDING...BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES IN SD ALSO APPEARS LIKELY AS
   LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES FROM
   THE SW.
   
   WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREATS...CORRIDOR FROM NEAR 2WX SEWD ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE A COMPARATIVELY HIGHER
   POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  HERE...WEAKER
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING COUPLED WITH LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD MORE DISCRETE...SUPERCELLULAR
   CONVECTION BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THIS AREA...AN UPGRADE TO TORNADO
   WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
   46260614 46850593 47290511 47240366 46630221 45870184
   45110181 44850227 44840298 45140385 45500520 45530582

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT AND NWRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150052Z - 150145Z
   
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NE OF
   WW 484 BETWEEN 0100-0130Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NECESSARY.
   
   AS OF 0040Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SUPERCELL TO BOW
   ECHO EVOLUTION OVER NRN DAWSON COUNTY MT WITH A GUST TO 79 KTS
   RECENTLY OBSERVED AT GDV.  THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPEARS TO HAVE
   ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY /OBSERVED SYSTEM MOTION OF 210 AT 40-45 KTS/
   AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...STORMS WOULD MOVE N OF WW 484 BY
   0130Z. INCREASING LINEAR STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST
   THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREATS.  POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 KT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE ALONG CREST OF EVOLVING BOW ECHO GENERALLY W OF HIGHWAY 16.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...
   
   48130524 48770527 49140419 49070279 48420216 48220258
   48050367

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0957 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL ND/SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150257Z - 150430Z
   
   THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 484.
   OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
   N-CNTRL NEB INTO S-CNTRL SD.  A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 04 0R 05Z
   E OF CURRENT WW.
   
   AS OF 0240Z...REGIONAL RADAR...IR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA
   INDICATED THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WIBAUX COUNTY MT
   EWD INTO GOLDEN VALLEY AND BILLINGS COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL ND WITH A
   GENERAL MOTION OF 230 AT 35 KTS.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
   OCCURRING ALONG COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY AND ON THE
   LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NNEWD INTO CNTRL MT.
   
   PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP FIELDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATE STRONG SELY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO ONGOING STORMS...MAINTAINING A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EWD TOWARD THE MO RIVER
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   FARTHER TO THE S...A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO
   INTENSIFY AS OF 0245Z OVER BENNETT COUNTY SD AND CHERRY COUNTY
   NEB...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE ROTATING
   THROUGH MEAN NRN ROCKIES TROUGH.  MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS
   ACTIVITY REMAINS S OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LOW
   PRESSURE S OF RAP SEWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB.  GIVEN THAT STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL N OF THIS
   AREA...AS WELL AS MORE INTENSE DPVA...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
   TO HOW THIS CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND NO ADDITIONAL WW
   IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GGW...
   
   47000437 47640435 48010373 47940129 47040012 45189974
   43149943 42529972 42310028 42550123 42970180 44550258
   45590268

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN HIGH PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 484...
   
   VALID 150548Z - 150645Z
   
   VALID PORTIONS OF WT 484 ACROSS WRN ND AND WRN SD HAS AN EXPIRATION
   OF 07Z. 
   
   LINGERING TSTMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS NWRN/NCNTRL SD EARLY THIS
   MORNING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   LOCATED FARTHER W.  TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING RECENTLY VCNTY
   SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER AND UPSTREAM ACROSS SCNTRL
   MANT SWD INTO EXTREME NERN MT ALONG A SFC TROUGH.  RUC SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS WERE ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE LAYER AND
   SHOULD MAINLY BE AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT. 
   
   GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASE IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND A LINGERING
   THREAT FOR ONLY ISOLD LARGE HAIL...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RENEWED
   WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS THIS MORNING.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
   43410178 43730476 48440718 49000730 49860727 50250378
   49400135 47120052 44149973

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150607Z - 150830Z
   
   ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
   DAYBREAK ACROSS SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND PERHAPS EXTREME
   SWRN MN.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...UNLESS STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   INCREASES.
   
   PLAN VIEW OF PROFILER DATA INDICATES THAT A 60 KT H85 JET WAS
   IMPINGING ON A NW-SE ORIENTED SFC-H85 FRONT OVER THE NEB/SD BORDER.
   OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM CNTRL-NCNTRL NEB AND MAINTENANCE
   OF EVE CONVECTION MOVING EWD ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER ATTEST TO THE
   STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION.  STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE
   EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP ACROSS SERN SD INTO NWRN IA.  00Z LBF
   SOUNDING SHOWED VERY STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OVER 9 DEG
   C/KM AND THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL.
   OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE BRIEF WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT GIVEN
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AOB 35 KTS.  RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
   RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND A SHALLOW NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER.
   THUS...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. 
   
   IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LARGER SCALE
   ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE MORNING THAT MIGHT INCREASE RISKS FOR MORE
   WIDESPREAD HAIL OR HIGH WINDS. THUS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM...BUT WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR INCREASES IN
   INTENSITY/COVERAGE.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   44019933 44049693 43679542 42659428 41719500 41979814
   43159991

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NORTH TEXAS WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

NO AIR POLLUTION WATCH EXPECTED ON FRIDAY DUE TO GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS. THESE WINDS...POSSIBLY 20 TO 30 MPH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAS PROMPTED THE RELEASE
OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTH TEXAS FROM 9 AM THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY.
THIS STATEMENT IS ON OUR WEBPAGE   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FWD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANCE OF THE STATE HAS FINALLY ENDED.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW INVADING THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. 
ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS APPROACHING AND EXPECTED TO INDUCE
WELCOMED AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN NORTH TEXAS. 

IN THE MEAN TIME...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI IN SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE ALSO COMMON
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO LAREDO. SUNNY SKIES
WERE THE NORM IN THE AREA BETWEEN.

WINK AGAIN LOOKS LIKE THE STATE HOT SPOT WITH 109 DEGREES AT 3 PM.
READINGS OF 100 OR MORE WERE COMMON GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD TO EL PASO...THE EXCEPTION WAS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND MARFA WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 90S. A
SURPRISE WAS DALHART...WITH 101!!! READINGS IN THE 90S WERE THE NORM
ELSWEHERE.

WINDS FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS WESTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ARE
ALREADY INCREASING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WERE THE NORM ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152053Z - 152230Z
   
   AS CONVECTION INCREASES ACROSS FAR NRN SD AND SRN/CNTRL ND THIS
   AFTERNOON...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL DEVELOP. A
   WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL SD WITH AN
   INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL ND. SFC
   DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE 60S F AND A MODERATELY TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000
   TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX
   IN CNTRL SD ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN ND. AS
   THE CAP WEAKENS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   SFC-BASED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRENGTHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
   A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   45370015 45680096 46370151 47500111 48040009 48149897
   47769816 47089773 46029802 45399917

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX/OK PNHDLS...SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152158Z - 152300Z
   
   CHANCES OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND PERHAPS
   SOME HAIL...WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK
   PNHDLS...AND SWRN KS THROUGH THE EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHORTLY.
   
   STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ALONG NWRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   AXIS HAS AIDED HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PNHDL OVER
   THE PAST HOUR. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING
   UPPER TROUGH HAS PROMOTED ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS NERN NM. EXPECT
   THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE/PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
   GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR. LARGE SURFACE
   TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH DCAPE STRONGLY SUGGEST DAMAGING
   DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
   SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   37960101 37720036 35280121 33900266 34200390 35150471
   37000411 37060186

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152243Z - 152345Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP NEWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA FROM NWRN KS AND A WW IS BEING
   CONSIDERED.
   
   AS OF 2230Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NRN EXTENSION OF
   BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS WRN KS OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY NEB WITH
   A GENERAL STORM MOTION OF 225/25 KTS.  RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE THAT AMBIENT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB HAS
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY MIXED THROUGH 700 MB.  MOREOVER...ACCOMPANYING
   KINEMATIC PROFILE AND UEX VWP INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL.
   
   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW SUBSEQUENT DEEP CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE
   OVER CNTRL NEB THIS EVENING GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL CO.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   40400087 40880059 41430016 41909982 41999884 41529833
   40849833 40459861 40259952

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0647 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152347Z - 160045Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA AND A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.
   
   RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   MOVING THROUGH CNTRL CO IS BEGINNING TO ACT ON SWRN EDGE OF
   LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS...DELINEATED BY WAVY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   OR WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM S OF DEN TO W OF IML TO N OF LBF.
   THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SHORT TERM NAM/RUC GUIDANCE WHICH
   SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS NERN CO INTO
   PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH 16/06Z.
   
   PRESENCE OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL JET AXIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   40370247 40850290 41720229 42360085 42339995 41969966
   41379981 40530100

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0724 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 160024Z - 160230Z
   
   ...PORTIONS OF ERN ND/NCNTRL SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE WATCH...
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIR WITH OCCLUDED
   FRONT EXTENDING NWD THROUGH CNTRL ND WEST OF DVL AND JMS. ATMOSPHERE
   HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
   ACROSS NCNTRL SD/ERN ND THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS NOW RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INTO SRN MANITOBA.
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
   CNTRL ND INTO SD...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL
   DIFFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW OVER WRN ND. PERSISTENT LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ON AREA VWP DATA BETWEEN MINOT AND GRAND
   FORKS SUGGESTS CONTINUED ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION.
   
   RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM BISMARCK AND MINOT INDICATE AROUND 40-45
   KT MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER
   WEST...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. IF
   SUSTAINED SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF BACKGROUND
   ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY...THEN TSTMS WOULD HAVE SEVERE
   POTENTIAL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   44529778 44520074 48980107 49029773 48769673 46229608
   44539683

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0808 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 160108Z - 160215Z
   
   IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW WILL
   BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   AS OF 0100Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF
   STORMS OVER KEARNEY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES OF S-CNTRL NEB...WITH
   ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM GRAHAM COUNTY WWD INTO GOVE
   AND LOGAN COUNTIES OF NWRN KS. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
   CAPPING INCREASES CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT...THUS THERE IS SOME
   UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR E STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PERSIST INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN OBSERVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER
   GOVE AND LOGAN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD
   FROM ERN CO AND INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST E OF
   WW/S 485/486 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...
   
   39169957 40399963 40929931 40969861 40709801 40139800
   39539817 39159866