MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0928 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB / N-CNTRL INTO WRN KS / ERN CO / THE TX
   AND OK PNHDLS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...486...488...
   
   VALID 160228Z - 160400Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PARTICULARLY WITH
   STORM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE HLC AREA.  HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM
   ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 04-05Z.
   
   AS OF 0220Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
   STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM KEARNEY AND FRANKLIN
   COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL NEB SWWD TO GRAHAM COUNTY KS AND THEN MORE WWD
   INTO THOMAS AND LOGAN COUNTIES IN KS.  MODIFICATION OF 00Z DDC AND
   AMA SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT THE CAP
   IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS INTO THE OK AND TX
   PNHDLS AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 80S.
   
   HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MEAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES COUPLED
   WITH STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ AND RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT OF
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS
   FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL
   NEB.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
   
   A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BY AT LEAST
   04-05Z OWING TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE CAP...THOUGH ISOLATED
   SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
   
   38450196 39670121 40320016 40709898 40539836 39629843
   38870012 36600104 35840112 35550187 35730233 36640266

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB AND S-CNTRL
   SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...
   
   VALID 160429Z - 160600Z
   
   THROUGH 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW AREA...PERHAPS INTO S-CNTRL
   SD.  AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SURFACE PATTERN HAS BECOME
   COMPLEX OWING TO EXPANSION AND MERGING OF MULTIPLE COLD POOLS.
   HOWEVER...SURFACE OBS AND MORESO...1000-1500 M AGL PROFILER AND VWP
   PLAN VIEW DATA...SUGGEST THAT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
   LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL SD SWD THROUGH N-CNTRL NEB TO A SECONDARY
   LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NERN CO.  AS OF 0420Z...THE MOST INTENSE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXISTED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS DEEP FRONTAL
   ZONE FROM LOGAN COUNTY CO INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY NEB.  OTHER STRONG
   STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM CHERRY COUNTY NEB INTO TODD AND TRIPP
   COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL SD.
   
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
   THROUGH NERN CO...COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT N AND W OF SYNOPTIC
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR SNY NEWD TO NEAR AND N OF VTN
   THROUGH 07Z.  SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
   HAZARD...THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   40730087 40400212 40500315 41860277 42810173 43530069
   44059976 43819911 42319944

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO...FAR NE NM...FAR SW KS...WRN OK
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 161740Z - 161915Z
   
   AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A THREAT
   FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. A WW
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION BY 19Z.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW ACROSS NE NM WITH A
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS FAR SE CO INTO WRN KS. AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NM WITH A BAND OF
   STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD INTO SE CO AND THE WRN OK
   PANHANDLE. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE
   CO AND NE NM...THE ASCENT SHOULD CAUSE STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE
   THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE CO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S F WITH
   AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS
   AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
   HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   APPROACHING TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   36320313 36310417 36820456 37470445 38070326 38400191
   38040098 37330091 36750176

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 161758Z - 161900Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SE OF MCS ACROSS SAND
   HILLS OF NEB IN AREA OF FORCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED BY 19Z.
   
   MCS ACROSS CNTRL NEB SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AND REMAIN
   ELEVATED/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO SD. TO
   THE S OF THIS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN A MORE UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS FROM NEAR EAR TO THE W OF CNK. CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING
   SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE
   TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S/DEW POINTS IN LOWER/MID 60S. COMBINED WITH
   A SW-NE ZONE OF BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM AREA
   PROFILERS...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH
   OVERALL THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH GREATER
   ORGANIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   38959964 39889948 40679976 41250003 41620005 42169901
   42549834 42149732 41529711 40729708 39879768 39249825
   38909888

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489...
   
   VALID 162037Z - 162100Z
   
   LINE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAS CROSSED THE SERN CO BORDER AND MOVED
   INTO WRN KS AND PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 492. STRONG FORCING ATOP
   RESIDUAL WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN CO COULD STILL PROMOTE
   A FEW TSTMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING AND MUCH
   OF WW 489 WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   36500220 36520449 39980311 39980019 39160018 38780174

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0402 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD....SWRN MN...ERN AND SCNTRL NEB...NWRN
   IA....CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490...491...
   
   VALID 162102Z - 162230Z
   
   EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN/AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED WITH STRENGTHENING SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
   ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AND STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
   A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATCHES
   490 AND 491 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   AT PRESENT...A VERY INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED STORM COMPLEX MOVING NEWD
   AT OVER 40KT WILL CROSS TURNER AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN SERN SD OVER
   THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE MOVING INTO SWRN MN BY 22Z. BOWING STRUCTURE OF
   THIS COMPLEX AND ORIENTATION TO 50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX SUGGEST
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN PART OF WW 490.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...FROM SCNTRL NEB SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS...STRONG LOW
   LEVEL SLY/SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY NWD INTO THE DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE. RESULTING WARM
   AIR ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS STORMS IN MODESTLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SUPERCELL MERGERS WITH
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HAZARD INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TREND TOWARD LARGE SCALE LINEAR
   MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DEEP LAYER FRONT MAY COMMENCE AS
   CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   40689718 40649732 36989838 37019950 38709956 38780086
   40660077 41410027 41519928 42939923 43319896 44239785
   44189489 43259484 42949652

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY SWD INTO THE
   ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 162206Z - 162300Z
   
   THE THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   AND SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AS OF 2157Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED
   DEEPENING CUMULUS CONVECTION AND SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM CROSBY
   AND GARZA COUNTIES SWD TOWARD MIDLAND AND GLASSCOCK COUNTIES.
   HERE...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
   THROUGH THE 90S...RESULTING IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /PER
   RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/ WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  FURTHER
   HEATING ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE SHOULD SUPPORT
   EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WRN
   CONCHO VALLEY.
   
   CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES THAT THIS REGION IS ON THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH GENERALLY 30-35
   KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL.  GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   31140233 32960186 33710153 33810072 33729999 32000025
   30440118 30460198

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 162300Z - 170030Z
   
   THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   E OF WW 492 BETWEEN 00-01Z INTO WRN OK AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE
   REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 2245Z...AMA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A RELATIVELY SHORT BOWING
   LINE SEGMENT WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES FROM ERN
   ROBERTS/WRN HEMPHILL COUNTIES SWD INTO DONLEY COUNTY WITH A MOTION
   OF 230/35-40 KTS.  RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT
   INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 700 MB WITH
   MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
   
   REGIONAL PROFILERS AND RUC VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOW A LARGE
   MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 30-40 KTS OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST
   WITHIN THIS LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER /AT LEAST THROUGH DIURNAL
   HEATING CYCLE/ OWING TO THE MODEST VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR.
   HOWEVER...COMPLEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...SUPPORTED BY
   STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THUS...IT APPEARS
   CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...
   
   36149941 36729922 36859876 36859827 36199783 35149779
   34329785 34219831 34399930

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/NWRN IA/SWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490...
   
   VALID 162326Z - 170030Z
   
   ALTHOUGH MCS INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY
   WANED...REDEVELOPMENT ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE
   REGION OF 90-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET...MAY STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS/PULSE SEVERE HAIL. A REPLACEMENT
   WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF CURRENT WW INTO
   NERN KS/SERN NEB. IN ADDITION...CELLS TRACKING NNE PARALLEL TO THE
   MEAN WIND VECTOR WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD
   POTENTIAL.
   
   SUBTLE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING
   WINDS/LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON HAS TRACKED FROM THE SAND HILLS OF
   NEB INTO SWRN MN THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO WW
   493 WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. REDEVELOPMENT HAS AND SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS ERN NEB INTO NWRN IA WITH 20-30 KTS OF 0-1
   KM SOUTHERLY INFLOW. THIS WILL BE STRENGTHENED THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES. CELL MERGERS AND DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MAY SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND/PULSE LARGE HAIL
   THREAT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. FLASH FLOODING/HEAVY
   RAINFALL MAY BE OF GREATER CONCERN ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA WITH
   TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE ECHOES LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   40849910 41719914 42079792 42939672 44299602 44689489
   42079496 41169754

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 170026Z - 170130Z
   
   THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP E OF WW 491 BY 02Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A NEARLY SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE
   HAS DEVELOPED FROM PHILLIPS AND SMITH COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL KS TO
   CLARK COUNTY IN SWRN KS TO ROGER MILLS AND BECKHAM COUNTIES IN
   W-CNTRL OK.  SMALLER-SCALE SURGES IN THIS LINE HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM
   PHILLIPS AND SMITH COUNTIES SWD TO ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES IN
   KS...AS WELL AS OVER NWRN OK.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT DEEP
   CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
   OF MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOLS.
   
   WITH TIME...EXPECT FURTHER COLD POOL EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION TO
   OCCUR...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
   INTO S-CNTRL KS.  RELATIVELY STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WITHIN BOUNDARY
   LAYER /WHICH SHOULD BE AIDED BY INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ/ WILL MAINTAIN
   STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...SUPPORTING
   CONTINUED SYSTEM PROPAGATION.  DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
   
   37119833 38089841 38469823 38849775 39069716 38809666
   37889665 37119710 37019754

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN MN...N-CNTRL IA AND NWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493...
   
   VALID 170041Z - 170215Z
   
   DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY TO THE E OF A
   MESOLOW JUST N OF MKT...WITH THREAT DIMINISHING IN MCS COLD POOL
   REGION ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL MN. CONTINUE WW.
   
   LONG-LIVED MESOLOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WAS
   LOCATED NORTH OF MANKATO AS OF 0035Z. EMERGING LEWP STRUCTURE IN
   VICINITY OF LOW MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS FEATURE LIKELY
   TRACKS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. CONTINUED LIFT
   NE OF MCS COLD POOL...HAS HELPED INDUCE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS AND INTO THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY. ANY OF
   THESE CELLS...AS WELL AS THOSE WHICH ADDITIONALLY DEVELOP
   DOWNSTREAM...WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000
   TO 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS PER MODIFIED
   INL/GRB AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE
   LLJ FOCUSES FURTHER W.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   44309485 45029410 46589335 47069199 46258994 44319038
   43519295 42769483

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 492...
   
   VALID 170101Z - 170200Z
   
   THROUGH 02Z...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST OVER SERN PORTION OF WW AREA.
   
   QUASI-LINEAR MCS HAS EVOLVED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
   ERN PORTION OF WW 492 FROM E OF DDC SWD INTO NWRN OK...WITH TRAILING
   PORTION COMPRISED OF MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER WHEELER COUNTY
   TX.  ANOTHER STORM CLUSTER WAS OBSERVED OVER CHILDRESS AND COTTLE
   COUNTIES IN THE SERN TX PNHDL/NRN TX.  DESPITE MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE...00Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATED THAT CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAD
   OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BETWEEN 800 AND 350 MB WHICH...WHEN
   COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND
   1500 J/KG.
   
   HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN TX
   PNHDL INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EVEN AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH
   INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...SUFFICIENT
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS
   CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   35080088 35360077 35510021 34969978 34519969 34130017
   34210089

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0932 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 170232Z - 170330Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH MCS AS IT MOVES E OF WW 495...MAINLY AFTER 03Z.  AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   AS OF 0225Z...VANCE AFB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF
   QUASI-LINEAR MCS FROM RENO...KINGMAN AND HARPER COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL
   KS SSWWD INTO ALFALFA...MAJOR...DEWEY AND BLAINE COUNTIES IN NWRN
   OK.  THESE DATA INDICATE THAT ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT REMAINS QUITE
   CLOSE TO PARENT CONVECTION OVER S-CNTRL KS WHERE RECENT SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS/WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED.  FARTHER S...GUST FRONT HAS
   STARTED TO OUT RUN CONVECTIVE TOWERS BY ROUGHLY 10 MILES...
   SUGGESTING THAT SYSTEM COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO OVERWHELM AMBIENT
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  RECENT MESONET OBSERVATION FROM ALFALFA COUNTY
   INDICATES THAT WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS
   SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES E OF WW 495 INTO N-CNTRL OK.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   36629743 36899738 36959674 36879623 35969635 35749698
   35979756

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1007 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...BIG COUNTRY INTO THE CONCHO
   VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494...
   
   VALID 170307Z - 170400Z
   
   THROUGH 05Z...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL
   APPEARS TO BE ACROSS E-CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 494.  SHOULD CURRENT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW MAY NEED TO
   BE CONSIDERED.
   
   AS OF 0250Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A NE-SW ORIENTED LINE
   OF TSTMS FROM JONES INTO NOLAN COUNTIES OF W-CNTRL TX WITH A GENERAL
   EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS.  ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS WERE
   BEING OBSERVED OVER KNOX AND TERRELL AND PECOS COUNTIES IN TX.
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR ABI IS
   BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS
   CNTRL TX /DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ WHERE RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE
   INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CAP.
   ADDITIONALLY...JAYTON TX PROFILER HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OWING TO AN
   INCREASE AND VEERING OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW.
   
   THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL TO
   CONTINUE E OF ABI...PERHAPS TOWARD BWD WITH TIME.
   
   ELSEWHERE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM RE-DEVELOPMENT EXISTS OVER THE
   LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS RETREATING DRY LINE.  AS
   MENTIONED ABOVE...JAYTON PROFILER HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS...SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION
   INDEED FORM.  PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND CAP
   STRENGTH WITH GRADUAL COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   31200143 32090102 33170015 33259926 32799859 31859873
   30989930 30569985 30560094

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MN/WCNTRL WI/NE IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493...
   
   VALID 170315Z - 170415Z
   
   ...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 04Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL
   WI/SE MN AND NCNTRL INTO NERN IA. ANOTHER WATCH IS BEING
   CONSIDERED...
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BUBBLE HIGH ACROSS SW MN...WHERE BOUNDARY
   LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN. LOCAL
   RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TWIN CITIES AND DES MOINES RADARS INDICATE
   NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTRL IA INTO SCNTRL MN. SEVERE WINDS
   WERE REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS HANCOCK CO IA WITH THESE
   STORMS.
   
   LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS ERN MN/WI OVERNIGHT...WITH
   WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE
   CERTAINLY STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SUGGEST ONE WAVE ACROSS NRN MN...MOVING AWAY FROM THE
   AREA...REDUCING MASS FLUX THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVER THE REGION.
   BUT...PORTIONS OF SE MN/WRN WI ARE NOW IN A LOCAL CONFLUENCE ZONE
   WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   42689225 42899398 43969427 44689326 45959220 46269131
   46129077 44379058 43559083

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1049 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL INTO SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497...
   
   VALID 170349Z - 170445Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE E OF
   WW 497 BY 0430Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 0330Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
   LINE FROM CNTRL MARION COUNTY SSWWD INTO CNTRL SUMNER COUNTY WITH A
   SYSTEM MOTION OF ROUGHLY 265/35 KTS.  STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LINE
   HAS RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH THE ICT AREA WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ICT/VNX VWP
   DATA SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A 40-45 KT REAR INFLOW JET BELOW 2 KM AGL
   WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
   THE SYSTEM GUST FRONT.
   
   IT APPEARS THAT THIS GUST FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF
   THE PARENT CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THE A GRADUAL UPSHEAR TILT TO THE
   LEADING UPDRAFT TOWERS.  THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR A
   DECREASE IN PEAK WIND GUSTS AS MCS SHIFTS E OF WW 497...THOUGH
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   37809726 38549710 38739637 38809570 37829534 37079571
   36969655 37039721

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NE KS/SW IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496...
   
   VALID 170419Z - 170515Z
   
   ...SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED OVER THE REMAINDER OF WW 496...AND IT
   WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY...
   
   STRONGEST PART OF SQUALL LINE AT 04Z EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO
   OK. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE IN ECNTRL NEB HAS
   STABILIZED WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SFC WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
   BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS EAST OF CNK/HJH.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...GID...
   
   40109692 40999755 41499703 41519589 40479560

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...
   
   VALID 170423Z - 170600Z
   
   THROUGH 06Z...THE GREATEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL EXIST FROM GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-40 AND W OF I-44.  AN
   ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME E OF WW 495.
   
   SRN PORTION OF QUASI-LINEAR MCS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL KS INTO
   N-CNTRL OK REMAINS MORE CELLULAR ACROSS W-CNTRL INTO SWRN OK AS OF
   04Z.  VWP FROM FREDRICK AFB INDICATES THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA AS BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
   /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/.
   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OWING TO COOLING
   BOUNDARY-LAYER.  RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP IS
   STRENGTHENING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...THOUGH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
   
   THUS...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  GIVEN THE
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.  AS MORE
   INTENSE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SWRN OK APPROACHES THE CNTRL PART
   OF THE STATE ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...
   
   34639989 35389960 35679840 35829789 35709728 35039722
   34089909

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF
   CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498...
   
   VALID 170734Z - 170930Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 498.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL TX/IN AND TO THE SW OF WW 498.  SELY LOW-LEVEL
   JET/WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...WITHIN MOIST /LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ AND
   MODERATELY-UNSTABLE /AROUND 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ AIRMASS.
   
   THOUGH VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
   FIELD...MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION.
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS NWD INTO NW TX OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE WIND FIELD
   WITH TIME.  THEREFORE...EXPECT A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING
   THROUGH SUNRISE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   31829958 32149839 32069745 30279808 29710031

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0402 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...
   
   VALID 170902Z - 171100Z
   
   LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SWRN OK.
   
   
   MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
   INTO ERN OK ATTM.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE A SLOW
   WEAKENING...AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OK.
   
   MEANWHILE...A LIMITED THREAT FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
   EXIST ACROSS THE SWRN QUARTER OF OK -- WITHIN WW 500.  THIS REGION
   REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER NOW CROSSING THE
   TX PNHDL...AND MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE IN A WRN BRANCH OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   THOUGH ANY STORM REDEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY
   SUB-SEVERE...A LOCAL THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL COULD
   ACCOMPANY A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...
   
   35129928 36979623 36959445 34309710 34299998