MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171512Z - 171715Z
   
   THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND
   PERHAPS INTO SWRN/SRN LA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS REGION WILL BE
   INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK IN THE NEXT DAY ONE OUTLOOK AND WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   MATURE MCS WITH LARGE COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED UPSCALE AND ENHANCED
   MID LEVEL FLOW/CIRCULATION ACROSS SERN TX THIS MORNING. LIFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE ADVANCING EAST AT ABOUT 30KT WILL BE
   SUPPLEMENTED BY MCV MOVING EAST INTO VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
   AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA REVEALS ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN
   STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES. GIVEN RELATIVELY MARGINAL DEEP SHEAR...
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS
   AS MCV AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL ACTIVITY DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST AND THE SABINE RIVER AREA THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON. IF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...
   
   28269613 28099691 28429710 29249621 30279554 31069537
   31259511 31229460 31039389 30689335 30399299 29989253
   29639254 29329331 29189373 28989450

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NRN WI...MI U.P.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171654Z - 171830Z
   
   THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WAS INCREASING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MN...NRN WI...AND PARTS OF THE U.P. OF MI
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED BY
   A WATCH SHORTLY.
   
   WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION WAS PROMPTING
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM EAST-CNTRL MN ACROSS NRN WI AT NOON. CONTINUED
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING ON THE SRN/SERN EDGE OF DEEP-LAYERED CLOUD
   BAND ACROSS MN...AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ON LOW LEVEL JET
   ACROSS WI...SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MOIST AND
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION LIES
   BENEATH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF
   CONFLUENCE BETWEEN CNTRL PLAINS UPPER LOW AND LESS AMPLIFIED NRN
   STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS ND. APPROACH OF THESE
   DISTURBANCE WILL AID LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
   THE DAY. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. PRESENCE OF
   LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
   COULD ALSO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND
   ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IF CELLS CAN TRACK PREFERENTIALLY
   NEAR/ALONG THESE FEATURES.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   47099060 47428812 47388770 46608618 45668774 45168886
   44769030 44529110 44329222 44449310 44779370 45339361
   46699258 46859180

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171755Z - 171900Z
   
   SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN
   OK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
   SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THESE AREAS.
   
   RAPID AIR MASS RECOVERY WAS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE
   DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT OK/TX MCS ACTIVITY. STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
   TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WERE CONTRIBUTING TO
   DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA
   INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE RED
   RIVER VALLEY. CU FIELD HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND WAS DEEPENING NEAR
   WEAK FRONT AND OK MCS OUTFLOW INTERSECTION NEAR LTS. FARTHER
   SOUTH...CU FIELD WAS INCREASING NEAR THE WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM NE OF
   MAF TO NW OF SPS.
   
   GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK INHIBITION ACROSS THE AREA...TSTMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION AND ALONG THE WEAK FRONT
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 20-30KT ATOP
   GENERALLY WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. MAGNITUDE OF
   CAPE/LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND
   FRONT COULD SUSTAIN A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
   SUPERCELLS TRACKING ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS OK
   WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS RESULTING IN STRONGER SRH. IF HIGHER
   CAPE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES ACROSS NWRN TX THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
   ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT
   STRETCHING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   34539751 32220007 32090099 32560167 33940085 35569957
   35399834

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...
   
   VALID 171834Z - 171930Z
   
   ARC OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ON LEADING EDGE OF MATURE MCS COLD
   POOL CONTINUES DEVELOPING EAST INTO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM
   THE UPPER TX GULF COAST TO THE WRN LA BORDER. VIL AND LIGHTNING
   TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY
   OUTRUNS STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. LIMITED SHEAR AND
   GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT SEVERE WIND
   POTENTIAL. WHILE ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
   TX/LA BORDER AND NEAR THE GULF COAST...ADDITIONAL WATCHES IN THIS
   REGION DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   29479379 29149570 30179430 31229403 32249419 32349290
   30959268 29179219

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171911Z - 172015Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF
   THE AFTERNOON FROM SWRN OK NWD/EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN OK.
   A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
   
   STORMS WERE INCREASING NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION IN SWRN OK.
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AREA NEWD ALONG
   CONFLUENCE AXIS/WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...FROM SWRN OK NEWD
   TO THE KS BORDER. POST MCS AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF OK WAS
   VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
   AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO OVERCOME
   INHIBITION. WHILE MID LEVEL WLY FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS WAS CONTRIBUTING
   TO MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY. IN ADDITION TO
   LARGE HAIL SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...LOWER LFC/HIGH
   BOUNDARY LAYER RH JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
   UPDRAFT INFLOW LAYER WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   34289750 35399958 36969838 36949587

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN KS AND NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 172027Z - 172200Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN/NERN KS AND NWRN MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW
   AND TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM CNTRL KS/NEB BORDER TO SCNTRL KS.
   MEANWHILE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
   CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SUPPORT
   PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE LIFT. AIR MASS ACROSS ERN KS/NWRN MO HAS
   HEATED THROUGH THE LOWER 80S F. INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
   COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN
   WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY WEAK/LIMITED...FORCING ALONG THE
   SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE LOW MAY INDUCE MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED
   BY LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE FROM NAM-ETA AND NAM-WRF.
   
   BAND OF DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT ON THE SERN FLANK OF UPPER
   LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
   PERSISTENCE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
   POSSIBLY EVOLVING FROM INITIAL ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO
   SEVERE WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF STORMS INCREASE
   ACROSS THE AREA AS DEPICTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE. A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   38429813 39469821 39859721 39879509 39339445 38349523
   37629628 37319687 37289741 37309825 37569852

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...504...
   
   VALID 172104Z - 172230Z
   
   INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION AND WEAK LOW
   ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WAS FLOWING NWD INTO THIS
   AREA WHERE BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS WERE OCCASIONALLY SUPPORTING
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN GENERALLY WEAK DEEP SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
   
   EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN STRONG TO EXTREME
   INSTABILITY ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NWRN TX
   THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY MODEST
   30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
   POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS WITH A SEVERE MCS POSSIBLE PROPAGATING SWD/SEWD INTO THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/WRN TX DURING TH NIGHT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   32220237 36949860 36969590 35849588 35619536 34409561
   33849645 31859803 30399939

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0417 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...U.P. OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502...
   
   VALID 172117Z - 172245Z
   
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER FAR NWRN WI/WRN U.P. OF
   MI...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO E-CNTRL MN. A MORE ISOLATED/LIMITED
   THREAT EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL WI...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
   HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MI.
   
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MOST VIGOROUS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
   CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE WW. ADDITIONAL
   TSTMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN
   VICINITY OF A MESOLOW AROUND 40 E OF STC. MLCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500
   J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SMALL SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...WITH WET
   MICROBURST AND PULSE SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS.
   
   FURTHER E...TSTMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW
   ACROSS CNTRL WI SHORTLY IN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS REGION BY MODEST WIND SHEAR
   /AROUND 20 KTS PER BLR PROFILER/ AND INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 TO 1000
   J/KG MLCAPES/...AS WELL AS OVERALL LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS. TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MI E OF A
   MQT TO MNM LINE. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FINE-LINE WHICH
   IS LIKELY SEPARATING A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE E...AND IS
   SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUC/ACARS SOUNDINGS. THE WW MAY BE CLEARED EARLY
   IN THIS REGION.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   44489162 44979261 46009271 46579218 46789076 47328786
   46368424 45918435 45188671 44678857

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502...
   
   VALID 172336Z - 180000Z
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS IN REGION OF BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
   TROUGH. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AND PULSE-LIKE IN
   NATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING FURTHER
   AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZED
   FOCUS...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AN ADDITIONAL
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   44539206 45889263 46889130 47388796 47138674 44978800

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...
   
   VALID 180038Z - 180245Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER NWRN TX ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND
   SPREAD SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX...REACHING PARTS OF S CNTRL AND SERN TX
   LATER THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
   PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WW 503 WILL BE REPLACED BY A NEW WW THAT
   WILL EXTEND FARTHER SE INTO CNTRL AND SERN TX BEFORE 02Z.
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH NWRN TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF STORMS
   DEVELOPING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS CLUSTER TO EVENTUALLY
   ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OF
   25 TO 30 KT VEERING TO WNWLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL ENHANCE
   CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT AND SUPPORT A
   FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY LITTLE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO SUPPORT THE MCS CONTINUING SEWD
   OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL TX IS
   QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. SELY
   LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WNWLY OF 20 TO 30 KT AT 500 MB WILL
   SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
   WITHIN THE EVOLVING MCS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29639706 30249940 32240132 32689885 33469714 31999595
   30759518

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0900 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO THROUGH SWRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505...
   
   VALID 180200Z - 180330Z
   
   LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH ERN KS...SWRN IA AND
   EVENTUALLY INTO WRN MO. STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 505 BY 03Z
   AND THIS WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 05Z.
   OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW EAST
   OF WW 505.
   
   LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN IA THROUGH ERN KS IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND
   25 KT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE E OF WW 505 AFTER 03Z. THE 00Z RAOB
   DATA FROM TOPEKA INDICATES ONLY MARGINAL MLCAPE WITH MODEST MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS HAS SERVED AS THE PRIMARY LIMITING
   FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS INTO WRN MO WHERE THE
   ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST E
   OF WW 505. GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND COOLING
   BOUNDARY LAYER...ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   37669630 39429599 41069577 40889497 39679480 37759531

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...
   
   VALID 180425Z - 180600Z
   
   THREAT FOR PRIMARILY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 506 AS
   MCS CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX.
   
   LINEAR MCS WITH TRAILING COLD POOL EXTENDS FROM THE DALLAS-FORT
   WORTH AREA SWWD TO NEAR BALLINGER IN CNTRL TX. THE LINE IS MOVING
   SEWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
   WITHIN THE LINE...AND THE STRONGER STORMS REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG
   TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. A BROAD AREA OF SELY 25
   TO 30 KT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IMPINGING ON THE GUST FRONT/COLD POOL
   WILL MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATION WITHIN THE MCS THROUGH CNTRL TX
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   31220072 31349893 31959748 32569632 32229563 31339576
   30119802 30300057

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...
   
   VALID 180710Z - 180845Z
   
   THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED IN AND NEAR WW 506...A
   THREAT FOR HAIL PERSISTS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BOWING LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SEWD/SWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- MOVING S AND E ACROSS/OUT OF WW.  THOUGH THIS
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS LINEAR CONFIGURATION...RADAR
   INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING IN REFLECTIVITY. SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY AND SLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION FOR
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE DECREASING.
   
   GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW WITH MORE DISCRETE
   STORMS ON WRN FRINGE OF MCS...WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND
   STRONGER SHEAR ARE INDICATED.  THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION -- POSSIBLY SPREADING S OF WW WITH TIME.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   32230074 32260036 31909926 30999884 30299907 29829970
   30060071 31160105 31840106

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...
   
   VALID 180710Z - 180845Z
   
   THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED IN AND NEAR WW 506...A
   THREAT FOR HAIL PERSISTS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BOWING LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SEWD/SWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- MOVING S AND E ACROSS/OUT OF WW.  THOUGH THIS
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS LINEAR CONFIGURATION...RADAR
   INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING IN REFLECTIVITY. SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY AND SLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION FOR
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE DECREASING.
   
   GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW WITH MORE DISCRETE
   STORMS ON WRN FRINGE OF MCS...WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND
   STRONGER SHEAR ARE INDICATED.  THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION -- POSSIBLY SPREADING S OF WW WITH TIME.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   32230074 32260036 31909926 30999884 30299907 29829970
   30060071 31160105 31840106

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY...NWRN
   TN...SWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 181738Z - 181915Z
   
   A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
   VALLEY...FROM SERN MO TO SWRN IND...THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   CONVECTION WAS INCREASING ACROSS WARM SECTOR FROM NRN AR/SERN MO
   INTO SRN IL ATTM. HEATING OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF A
   WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
   ONGOING DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG DEEPENING BOUNDARY
   LAYER HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO
   GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES MODESTLY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. DESPITE GENERALLY LIMITED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ESTIMATED
   AT ABOUT 30KT...DEGREE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT
   FOR A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND
   PERHAPS SUSTAINED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLY PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.
   GIVEN THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY...A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED SHORTLY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   35679180 36349163 36969138 37689122 38659123 39319135
   39979078 40118943 39808805 39338712 39008692 37838686
   37148721 36658756 36448841 36098926 35759003 35549111
   35499132

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 181844Z - 182045Z
   
   SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE AROUND 21Z
   ACROSS CNTRL NEB...NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER IN VICINITY OF A
   MESOLOW JUST NNE OF LBF. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID AND
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL...WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. MAIN
   LIMITATION TO BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE THE RATHER MODEST
   INSTABILITY AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FURTHER E OF MESOLOW.
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AT 1830Z...A SURFACE MESOLOW WAS LOCATED IN LOGAN COUNTY...WITH CU
   DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   THAT THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN AROUND 21Z IN THIS REGION AND IS
   GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL. AN ARCING POCKET OF
   MID TO UPPER 50S DEW POINTS REMAINS IN CNTRL TO SERN NEB AND THIS
   SHOULD PROVIDE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE MIDDLE 80S.
   HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN SLOWED BY MID-LEVEL AC ACROSS
   MUCH OF ERN NEB. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THIS AREA
   WILL DELAY SURFACE-BASED INITIATION AS WELL. THE LIKELY SCENARIO IS
   FOR STORMS TO INITIATE NEAR THE MESOLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY
   PROPAGATE EWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LNX VAD PROFILER INDICATES
   20 KT FLOW VEERING FROM ELY NEAR THE SURFACE TO SWLY AT 2 KM...JUST
   TO THE N OF THE MESOLOW. THIS NARROW ZONE OF HIGHER HELICITY WILL
   ENHANCE ORGANIZED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL IN CNTRL NEB...BENEATH 40 TO 45
   KTS OF WLY FLOW AT 6 KM. WITH BOTH STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   40879925 41520050 42070066 42380051 42530021 42619976
   42549923 42289854 41759774 41199677 40689665 40269695
   40229756

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...SERN MO...SWRN KY THROUGH MUCH OF IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507...
   
   VALID 182305Z - 190030Z
   
   THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE NRN THIRD OF WW 507.
   SEVERE THREAT MAY BE INCREASING N OF WW 507 INTO PARTS OF N CNTRL
   IND INTO WRN OH...AND THESE AREAS IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WW.
   
   A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM N CNTRL IND SWWD THROUGH ERN IL.
   ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHIN A ZONE OF
   ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EWD ADVANCING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF SERN IL THROUGH SRN
   IND HAS BEEN PARTIALLY STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION RESULTING
   IN WEAKENING OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE LINE. HOWEVER...VWP DATA
   SUGGEST THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE OVER N CNTRL IND IS DEVELOPING
   IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE E OF A SURFACE WAVE THAT APPEARS
   TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE LINE ACROSS E
   CNTRL IL. VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER IS SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO AS STORMS TRAIN NEWD ALONG THE NE-SW ORIENTED
   BOUNDARY ACROSS N CNTRL IND.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...
   
   37019000 37528901 39318797 40968469 40188396 38138655
   36938764 36549006

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0845 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 190145Z - 190345Z
   
   SERN NEB THROUGH SRN IA AND NRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY BECOME
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. OVERALL
   THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   INITIATION. ONE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT...A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WI SWWD THROUGH SRN IA INTO SRN NEB WHERE
   IT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORM THAT
   DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER SERN NEB S OF HASTINGS HAS DISSIPATED...BUT
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A LINE OF CUMULUS ALONG THE IA
   PORTION OF THE FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM NERN NEB THROUGH
   MUCH OF IA APPEARS TO BE INDICATIVE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
   EXIT REGION OF A SEWD MOVING UPPER JET. THIS ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD SEWD AND MAY BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN
   SRN IA. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DUE TO THE
   COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
   DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS
   COULD STILL DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS SERN NEB AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS AND WHERE DEVELOPING CLOUDS SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
   ALREADY BE INCREASING ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE FRONT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...
   
   40949910 40819612 41059357 41239209 40649242 39979919

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0921 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IND...WRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508...
   
   VALID 190221Z - 190415Z
   
   THREAT FOR SVR APPEARS TO BE WANING AND WW 508 WILL LIKELY BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z WITH NO OTHER ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCES
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EARLIER SFC WAVE NEAR HUF HAS WASHED OUT
   AND ONLY WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE REMAINS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER
   CENTRAL/ECENTRAL IND FROM EARLIER LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
   ALTHOUGH AIRMASS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN/ECENTRAL IND INTO SWRN OH
   REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCAPPED...PER 00Z ILN SOUNDING...DECREASING
   INSTABILITY AND LACK OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR NEW
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTS THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 508 VALID TIME
   /04Z/. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /100 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH PER
   RECENT ILN VWP DATA/ AND THERE WILL REMAIN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH ANY STRONG/SHORT LIVED UPDRAFT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   40828469 40278566 39438687 38828728 38648702 38658615
   38788500 39578378 40758375

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/S CENTRAL AND SERN NEB/NRN KS/NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 190651Z - 190845Z
   
   EXPECT STORMS TO PERSIST -- ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY
   -- OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THOUGH LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL WILL
   CONTINUE WITH STRONGER CELLS...WW NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ELONGATED CLUSTER OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING
   ESEWD ACROSS SRN IA ATTM...WITHIN REGION OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. STORMS ARE ALSO INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM
   ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF SURFACE FRONT. 
   
   MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS
   REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
   CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THOUGH MODERATELY-STRONG
   MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...ELEVATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF INSTABILITY
   SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   41629328 41079155 39759123 38699604 39300026 40030073
   41089904 41999691