MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0840 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY INTO PORTIONS OF VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191340Z - 191545Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS
   WRN/CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN 1-2 HOURS.
   
   LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING UNDER
   CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF MOIST CONVECTION NOW INCREASING OVER WRN NY AND
   NWRN PA THIS MORNING.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
   80F NEAR SYR/UCA AND INTO THE NRN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE
   MODIFIED OBSERVED/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW TO MID 80F
   TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS.  SBCAPE / NOW AROUND
   1000 J/KG / SHOULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG IN ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.  VWP/S
   FROM BGM AND BUF INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...WITH DEEP
   CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SITES GIVEN MORE WLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT
   AT BUF.  NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE SHOULD SUPPORT LINEAR
   ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY AS IT INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND SPREADS INTO ERN
   NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   41977547 42157712 43357673 44897433 44837230 42797318

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1008 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IND INTO SERN MI/NWRN
   OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191508Z - 191630Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER FAR E-CENTRAL IL AND INTO SWRN
   MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  GIVEN
   CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
   IND...WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AIR MASS HAS YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS IND AND SRN
   LOWER MI THIS MORNING...YET DEEP ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING FROM ERN IL INTO SWRN
   MI.  SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHERE RUC
   FORECAST AND MODIFIED-OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN
   THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL OVERCOME MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER CAP.  APPEARS
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INCREASING UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
   H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS... THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREATS.
   
   ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   39468591 39318775 40118820 42948491 43468315 42448266
   40208462

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NH..WRN ME..MA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191730Z - 191930Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   NRN MA NNEWD ACROSS WRN ME.  WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
   
   STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 90S
   ACROSS MUCH OF MA/NH WITH STRONG HEATING ALSO ACROSS ME.  MLCAPE
   AXIS IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG HAS ALREADY BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
   FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW
   SUPERCELLS ACCORDING TO REGIONAL VWPS. SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE IN
   TWO MODES...ONE WILL BE AS ONGOING STORMS SPREAD EWD OUT OF NY WITH
   ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS NOW INCREASING NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN
   OVER NH/WRN ME AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD.
   
   ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
   
   42257135 42497262 45217118 47386918 47136790 45056911
   43377041

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191814Z - 192015Z
   
   AREA OF MAXIMUM SURFACE CONVERGENCE BEING MONITORED FROM NERN MO
   INTO CENTRAL IL FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER THIS AREA.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL CB FORMING ALONG E-W ORIENTED
   SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS FAR NRN MO INTO SERN NEB.  STORM
   IS INITIATING INVOF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX NOW
   SHIFTING ACROSS SERN IA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
   CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND
   1500 J/KG POSSIBLE ONCE TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S
   OVER CENTRAL/SRN IL.  INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
   PREVALENT IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS AREAS TO THE
   NORTH UNDERGO STRONGER DRYING DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.  SEVERE THREAT
   WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH ANY
   PERSISTENT STORM.  THOUGH WIND PROFILE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL...SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
   WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT.  THUS...IF A STORM CAN TAKE
   ROOT INTO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
   SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH RIGHT MOVERS DEVELOPING INTO GREATER
   INSTABILITY OVER SRN HALF OF IL.
   
   ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   40349313 40599261 40319000 40188758 39088750 38658878
   39389146 39949297

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NY...NERN PA...VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509...
   
   VALID 191842Z - 192045Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS INCREASED OVER UPSTATE NY INTO MUCH
   OF VT AHEAD OF EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
   NY.  CONTINUE WW 509 AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THOUGH COUNTIES WEST OF
   THE FRONT CAN LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE WATCH.
   
   AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
   ERN NY/CENTRAL PA WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F AHEAD OF BROKEN
   LINE OF STORMS PRODUCING EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING FROM NW
   OF BTV TO 25 W GFL TO JUST E OF IPT.  PRESSURE FALLS HAVE MAXIMIZED
   ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE SSELY
   SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. VWP FROM ALB
   INDICATES 40 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2.
   THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITHIN
   THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE MAINTAINING MORE DISCRETE
   CHARACTER AS OPPOSED TO PERSISTENT LINEAR SEGMENT NOW MOVING TOWARDS
   NWRN VT.  WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
   WW.
   
   ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   41397414 41187627 41477656 42977517 44957343 44867123

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...CENTRAL/NRN OH...NWRN PA...FAR WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191904Z - 192000Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF WW 510 IN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN OH TOWARDS NWRN PA/FAR WRN
   NY.  WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED IN TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS
   THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER SERN LOW MI INTO WRN LAKE ERIE WITH
   ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL IND.  EACH OF THESE CLUSTERS IS PERSISTING AND
   MOVING ESEWD WITHIN WW 510...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY
   UNSTABLE.  MLCAPE MAX AROUND 2000 J/KG IS PREVALENT OVER LAKE ERIE
   ATTM...WHERE STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS SHIFTING
   ACROSS WRN LAKE ERIE IN THE SHAPE OF A SMALL BOW ECHO. OTHER MORE
   DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SWRN ONTARIO.  SEVERE
   THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR WW IS THEREFORE GREATEST ACROSS NRN OH INTO
   FAR WRN NY/NWRN PA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   ALOFT. SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SOUTHEAST OF WW 510
   INTO SERN IND/SWRN OH...THOUGH CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW MAY PUSH SEVERE
   THREAT INTO MORE OF SRN IND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...
   
   38808715 39928438 42368165 42977811 38428508

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MT...FAR NWRN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192011Z - 192145Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN
   MT TO THE NW OF YELLOWSTONE...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN WRN ID. ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
   STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE OVERALL
   THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   A POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED TO THE E/NE OF A MESOLOW
   TO THE NW OF IDA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
   HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
   LOWER 50S. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES ARE AROUND 500 TO
   1000 J/KG IN THIS REGION...POKING NEWD INTO SWRN MT. 45 TO 50 KTS OF
   WSWLY FLOW AT 6 KM PER BLX VAD PROFILER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
   STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...LARGE HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS...ALTHOUGH
   GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR.  FURTHER E TOWARDS THE BILLINGS
   AREA...DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW DUE TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
   MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE TSTM
   INTENSITY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
   
   44201124 44251258 45081364 45911283 46421195 46711112
   46790987 46810889 45970790 45270817

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1245
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN DE...ERN PA...NJ...SRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192027Z - 192200Z
   
   BROKEN LINE OF STRONG STORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR BALTIMORE/MD
   NWD TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF WILKES-BARRE/PA WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG/BRIEFLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   LIKELY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AND
   WW NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ATTM.  HOWEVER...WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR PORTIONS OF NERN PA/NRN NJ/SRN NY FOR WW.
   
   AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LINE OF
   STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F INTO THE PHI AND NYC METRO
   AREAS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S F. WSWLY
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALSO PREVENTED MUCH INLAND PENETRATION TO
   THE SEA BREEZE AND SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER STORMS TO PERSIST AS THEY
   MOVE FROM THE WEST TO NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC SEA BOARD THROUGH THE
   EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES
   INDICATE MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOSTERING A FEW STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.
   LIMITED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 25-30 KT WILL LIKELY
   PRECLUDE PERSISTENT/MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT AND WW NOT
   ANTICIPATED FROM THE NRN CHESAPEAKE INTO ERN PA.  HOWEVER...WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR GREATER STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WHERE SHEAR
   IS A BIT STRONGER INTO NRN NJ AND SRN NY FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.
   
   ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
   
   39187548 38757669 39357649 40417590 41407562 41437344
   39997433

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SERN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192050Z - 192145Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
   OF N-CNTRL CO INTO SERN WY. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...AS MOIST ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACTS TO BREAK STRONG
   CAP IN PLACE. AS STORMS INITIATE...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
   MODEST INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SEVERE THREAT. A WW WILL BE ISSUED
   SHORTLY.
   
   VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF TOWERING
   CU/DEVELOPING CBS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND SERN WY. A WNW TO
   ESE SURFACE MOIST AXIS OF 50+ F DEW POINTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NERN
   CO...WITH AROUND 20 KTS OF SURFACE ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW. A PRONOUNCED
   DENVER CYCLONE IS ALSO EVIDENT VIA RADAR...AND A SMALL TSTM HAS
   FORMED OVER ERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
   FORM FURTHER N/NW INTO SERN WY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40
   KTS PER FTG VAD PROFILER WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...
   
   40200567 41190597 42260626 42890638 43000619 43080572
   43010489 42740457 41780384 41230355 40510315 39390297
   38930326 38870418 38870480 39100532

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1247
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...NWRN PA AND SWRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513...
   
   VALID 192229Z - 200000Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   MAINLY WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING INTO NWRN PA NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   THESE STORMS WILL MOVE E OF WW 513 BEFORE 23Z. OVERALL TREND HAS
   BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
   NECESSARY E OF WW 513 UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE
   ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION AS THEY DEVELOP
   EWD.
   
   CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER EXTREME NWRN PA IS MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT.
   DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL PA HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY
   STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS REGION EARLIER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING
   IS ALLOWING THIS AREA TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY RECOVER. TEMPERATURES IN
   THE UPPER 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND MODEST LAPSE RATES ARE
   SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
   GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
   AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINING W OF THIS REGION NEXT FEW
   HOURS...IT IS PROBABLE THAT STORMS MAY GRADUALLY LOSE THEIR
   ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD...ESPECIALLY AS
   HEATING BEGINS TO SUBSIDE.
   
   OTHER STRONG STORMS OVER NWRN OH COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN PORTION OF
   WW 513 LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   40878246 41118060 42207941 42027791 40597934 40328217

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192243Z - 200015Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN MT INTO NERN
   WY...WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
   HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS STILL MODEST...RATHER STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...BOTH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   TO THE N OF WW 516 IN THE ERN PLAINS OF NERN WY AND SERN
   MT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS
   IN THE 40S. CONCENTRATED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN ID...HAS MAINTAINED SELY SURFACE FLOW
   THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED AN INFLUX OF AROUND 50
   DEGREE DEW POINTS TO NOSE INTO E-CNTRL WY. IN ADDITION...TOWERING
   CU/SMALL CBS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC
   SOUNDINGS INDICATES MODEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN WY
   INTO PORTIONS OF SERN MT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. VWP DATA
   FROM RIW AND BLX INDICATE AROUND 50 KTS OF WSWLY FLOW AT 6 KM. THIS
   WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
   
   42830496 42830594 43330649 44300708 44870744 45710831
   46390823 47070748 47140645 46720546 46000481 44370428
   43110402

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...SRN IND THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512...
   
   VALID 192306Z - 200030Z
   
   A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO NRN KY IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST INTO CNTRL AND ERN KY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN MOVING S OF
   WW 512 BEFORE 00Z AND ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED S OF WW 512.
   
   A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM SERN OH WWD INTO SRN IND AND
   NRN KY IS MOVING SEWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN
   A ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING SEWD TROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE
   IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT
   ENHANCED BY THE COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEWD DEVELOPMENT
   NEXT FEW HOURS. MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KY
   TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER ERN KY AND WV...AND MOST UNSTABLE STORM
   RELATIVE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE WRN FLANKS OF THE MCS.
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE REFLECTED THIS AS STORMS ALONG THE ERN
   PORTION OF THE MCS HAVE WEAKENED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...PAH...
   
   37968664 37898477 38068305 37248266 36828390 37208702

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1250
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...FAR SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516...
   
   VALID 200042Z - 200215Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 516...BUT APPEARS TO BE
   DIMINISHING. AS OF 0030Z...THREE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE LOCATED IN
   FAR NERN WELD COUNTY AND WRN KIT CARSON COUNTY IN CO...AND IN SIOUX
   COUNTY NEB. OVERALL...A DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN
   NOTED...EVEN THOUGH CELLS WERE LOCATED IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS.
   MODIFIED 00Z DNR SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
   STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY YET ALLOW A SEVERE STORM OR
   TWO TO OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT FURTHER E OF CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
   BE DIMINISHING...AS EVIDENCED BY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ON LBF
   SOUNDING. NEVERTHELESS...ELEVATED STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD AND
   INTENSIFY ACROSS NRN NEB/SRN SD AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS LATER THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   39750228 39340239 39260287 39290364 39680378 40690417
   41560434 42650444 43160436 43250372 43250315 43060269
   42030248 40970233

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN STATES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511...515...
   
   VALID 200047Z - 200215Z
   
   LINES OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
   SHOULD CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND. REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 511 AND
   515 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z.
   
   EVENING RAOB DATA ALONG MOST OF THE NERN STATES SHOW MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING FROM LOW
   LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS NEAR THE COAST.
   RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITH STORMS
   UNDERGOING A RAPID DECREASING TREND AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST. AN
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
   NEXT HOUR MAINLY WITH STORMS MOVING TOWARD SRN NJ AND ERN
   MAINE...BUT OVERALL REMAINING THREAT IS MARGINAL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...
   
   41937261 44137052 46776856 45846770 41107185 38967475
   40057581

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0840 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND THROUGH WRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 200140Z - 200315Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD INTO
   PARTS OF SWRN ND AND WRN SD WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED
   FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   AN AREA OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS NERN WY INTO SERN
   MT. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF FAVORABLE LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD
   THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LITTLE
   SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS ACROSS NWRN SD
   INTO SWRN ND. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE WILL EXIST WITH
   MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG FOR UPDRAFTS ROOTED NEAR 700 MB.
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT HIGH BASED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYERS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
   EWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR
   HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
   43790351 46080472 47110446 46950260 44420224

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN KY...SWRN VA AND SRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518...
   
   VALID 200207Z - 200400Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WILL CONTINUE WITH LINE OF CONVECTION AS IT
   MOVES ESEWD AROUND 30 KTS ACORNS SCENTRAL/SERN KY AND SRN WV. A MORE
   STABLE AIRMASS OVER SERN WV AND SWRN VA SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT
   SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST IN THESE AREAS AND A NEW WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED EAST OF WW 518.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS JUST AHEAD OF
   CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SCENTRAL/SERN KY INTO SRN WV...WITH MUCAPES
   AROUND 1500 J/KG AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. CONTINUED LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER SERN WV/SWRN VA
   /WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S/ INDICATE
   THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
   LINE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. WW 518 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
   04Z AS LINE MOVES ESEWD...AND A NEW WW EAST OF WW 518 DOES NOT
   APPEAR NECESSARY.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...PAH...
   
   38238159 37408316 37358561 37558675 37278677 36718709
   36698292 36628124 38128018

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0922 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 519...
   
   VALID 200222Z - 200345Z
   
   SVR THREAT OVER REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 519 SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO WANE...AND WW 519 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 04Z EXPIRATION TIME.
   
   EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SWRN OH WEAKENED AS IT ENCOUNTERED
   MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MCS NOW OVER KY/WV. THERE REMAINS
   SOME SVR THREAT WITH CONVECTION ON THE WRN EDGE OF SECONDARY MCS
   OVER NWRN/WCENTRAL OH FOR THE NEXT HR OR SO...WHERE THE BEST MID
   LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL FEED INTO THE BACK SIDE OF ONGOING
   CONVECTION.  HOWEVER WITH DECREASING SFC BASED INSTABILITY JUST EAST
   OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO OUTFLOW/DIURNAL STABILIZATION...IT IS
   ANTICIPATED THAT ANY SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED.
   CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL/NERN OH WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE
   AIR IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS AND WEAKEN IN THE NEXT HR AND THUS
   NO NEW WW IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF WW 519.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...
   
   41008114 40968287 40848401 40348405 40158285 40168171
   40648123

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL SD AND EXTREME SWRN
   ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517...520...
   
   VALID 200419Z - 200545Z
   
   AREA OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL CONTINUES FROM NERN WY EWD THROUGH WRN SD.
   MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO WW 520 BY 05Z...AND
   REMAINING PARTS OF WW 517 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION
   TIME OF 06Z. STRONG STORMS MAY BEGIN SPREADING INTO CNTRL SD BY
   05Z...AND THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN WY INTO WRN SD ARE MOVING EWD AT
   35 TO 40 KT. STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN ALONG AND E OF A SURFACE FRONT
   MOVING THROUGH ERN WY...AND MOST STORMS IN NERN WY WILL MOVE INTO WW
   520 BY 05Z. RUC BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LITTLE SBCAPE
   OVER SD AND ERN WY...BUT A RESERVOIR OF STRONGLY CAPPED SURFACE
   BASED INSTABILITY OVER NEB. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL
   JET WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER
   MOISTURE WITHIN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER...RESULTING IN NWD
   DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...BUT THE
   RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
   PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. INCREASING ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...CYS...
   
   43540496 44900420 45440037 44769897 43409935 43100153

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1256
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD/N CENTRAL AND NERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520...
   
   VALID 200711Z - 200845Z
   
   STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS
   OF WW/ACROSS SWRN AND INTO S CENTRAL SD.  NEED FOR NEW WW STILL
   UNCERTAIN...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   ZONE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY -- WHICH REMAINS GENERALLY CAPPED
   -- PERSISTS ACROSS WRN NEB AND INTO SWRN SD.  FURTHER E...MOISTENING
   IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS RESULTING IN
   INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM
   ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED EXPANSION/EWD MOVEMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS SRN SD AND PERHAPS INTO NRN NEB.
   
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
   STORMS...BUT DEPTH OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC STABLE LAYER SUGGESTS THAT
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO HAIL ACROSS S CENTRAL
   AND SERN SD.  QUESTIONS WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE AND
   OVERALL COVERAGE OF THREAT EXIST...THUS NEED FOR WW STILL NOT
   CERTAIN.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   44580187 44699945 44039649 42209678 42189990 42410155
   44060348

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1033 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...NH...MA...CT...RI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201533Z - 201700Z
   
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DEVELOP AS STORMS
   INITIATE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS WRN NY
   AND SRN QUEBEC. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   AND IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ERN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT STRONG...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES CURRENTLY EXCEED 7.5 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SHOWN ON
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. FOR THIS REASON...THE STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE
   A BRIEF WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...
   
   41907275 42457458 43677492 44957379 44707128 43527057
   42197108