MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL..SRN IND...KY...SWRN VA...WRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201721Z - 201845Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE ACROSS KY AND STORM COVERAGE
   SHOULD EXPAND WWD THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL
   IL INTO NRN KY AND NEWD INTO WRN PA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
   PRESENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS
   WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NRN
   IL. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE MOSTLY UNDIRECTIONAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 700 MB WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR STRONG MULTICELL STORMS. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
   AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   36748197 36718636 37678863 38848812 38238619 38238383
   38128194

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...WRN NEB...NE CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201854Z - 202030Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
   WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 20Z TO 21Z ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SCNTRL NEB
   EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN CO WITH A DUAL-CENTERED SFC LOW OVER NW KS
   AND SE CO. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A STRONG
   MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENT FROM FAR SE WY EXTENDING SSEWD TO NEAR
   GOODLAND KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE MEDICINE BOWS
   AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE STORMS WILL
   LIKELY STRENGTHEN...MOVING INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. IN
   ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE WY...NE CO AND WRN NEB SHOW 0-6
   KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
   
   40630227 40260375 40750509 41390540 42340523 42910412
   42720243 41580173

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN CO INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201956Z - 202200Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   IT HAS BECOME VERY HOT WITHIN SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH FROM NRN KS
   SWWD INTO SERN CO AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE STRONG MIXING WITH
   LOW LEVEL JET HAS CAUSED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO ERODE. THIS
   EROSION WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN KS AS HEATING
   CONTINUES.
   
   VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 40-55 F RANGE TO PRODUCE SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG
   WARM ADVECTION PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT
   SUGGEST MULTICELLULAR STORMS ARE LIKELY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
   LOCALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
   AND MIXING DOWN OF LOW LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER
   CORES MAY CONTAIN HAIL
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   38969783 37570128 37070273 37510321 37960321 38760344
   39260126 39909985 39929914 39949765

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...SE IA...WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202003Z - 202200Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SE IA...NE
   MO AND WRN IL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE FROM CNTRL IL
   INTO SRN IA AND ERN NEB. A MOIST AXIS WITH LOW 70 F DEWPOINTS EXIST
   FROM ST LOUIS EXTENDING NWWD INTO FAR NW MO WHERE STRONG UNSTABLE
   AIR IS PRESENT. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NCNTRL MO JUST
   AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC
   ANALYSIS. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP AND
   INTO THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR...SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   38689132 39009235 39889294 40729297 41409219 41309070
   40348990 39129007

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0519 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN IA...SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NWRN
   IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202219Z - 210015Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM CNTRL AND NERN IA INTO
   SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL. A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. A WW WILL BE NEEDED IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR INITIATION IS
   IMMINENT.
   
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN IA SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL. THIS
   BOUNDARY IS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD THIS EVENING ALONG A 40+ KT SLY LOW
   LEVEL JET. PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE OF MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
   AREA THIS MORNING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND S
   OF THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S HAVE RESULTED IN AN AXIS
   OF 2500 MLCAPE FROM WRN AND S CNTRL IA SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN
   IL. PLUME OF WARM AIR IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LAYER HAS ADVECTED
   NEWD CONTRIBUTING TO A CAP. THIS LENDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN
   AND IF STORMS WILL INITIATE. MCV THAT ACCOMPANIED THE MORNING
   CONVECTION HAS MOVED EWD INTO IL AND WI WITH TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE IN
   ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWLY LOW
   LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
   LIKELY AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE NRN IA...SRN MN INTO SWRN WI ON
   NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
   CONTAINING LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR
   AND N OF THE WARM FRONT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
   
   40559021 41699280 42979626 44659285 42538929 40778898

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN IL...WRN IN...CENTRAL AND WRN
   KY...MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202249Z - 210045Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW
   MORE HOURS OVER MUCH OF KY INTO MIDDLE TN...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
   IN INTENSITY. FARTHER W...NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER SERN IL AND
   WRN INDIANA LATE EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE.
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS KY/TN ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   DECREASE WITH TIME AS LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE AND WITH LACK OF
   FORCING MECHANISM.
   
   FARTHER NW...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
   THE EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS IL AND UPSTREAM OVER
   MO...THUS SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT
   MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AS LOW LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   39908907 40978814 41058702 39328594 37028343 35888365
   35068456 35138624 37218768 38218954 39258975

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202316Z - 210045Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SRN SD. CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...A FEW MORE
   STORMS MAY FORM OVER SWRN SD. THUS A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL OVER NW NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO SD.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN SD WITH A BROAD ZONE OF
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT
   TO SUSTAIN SEVERE CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY LEFT MOVING STORMS.IN ADDITION...FURTHER
   DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS
   WRN SD BENEATH STRONG COOLING ALOFT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   43000276 42990404 43830400 44560065 44459976 43809885
   42979969

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1265
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN KS / FAR ERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 210022Z - 210115Z
   
   A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND PROPAGATE EWD OUT OF CO AND INTO
   SWRN NEBRASKA/NWRN KS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
   FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR LONG LIVED CONVECTION. LIFT WILL
   PERSIST ON NOSE OF SLY LOW LEVEL JET FURTHER AIDING STORMS AS THEY
   TREK EWD ACROSS KS AND NEBRASKA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
   PROFILES BENEATH MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR MOSTLY
   MULTICELLS...BUT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   38510332 39900189 40650057 41030010 40889817 39989802
   39149792 38639940 38590103 38620207

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0912 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN NEB...SRN SD AND
   NWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522...523...524...
   
   VALID 210212Z - 210415Z
   
   CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER NERN CO /WW 522/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   EWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS...EVENTUALLY MOVING ITO WW 524 BETWEEN
   03-05Z. THE MAIN SVR THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
   HAIL/DMGG WINDS. THE SVR THREAT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 522 /WRN
   NEB/ APPEARS TO BE WANING AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WATCH IN
   THE NEXT HR OR SO. FURTHER NORTH OVER WW 523 /SRN SD/ ADDITIONAL SVR
   TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF NRN
   ROCKIES. ACTIVITY ONGOING OVER SCENTRAL SD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
   IT MOVES EAST OF WW 523.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO NEWD INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB. LOW LEVEL
   JET WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING
   SVR STORM CLUSTER AS IT MOVES OUT OF NERN CO...AND ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. CLUSTER/S OF SVR STORMS SHOULD
   THEN PROPAGATE EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
   SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...NCENTRAL/NERN KS LATER THIS EVENING GIVEN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE
   NEEDED EAST OF WW 524 BEFORE 05Z.
   
   FURTHER NORTH...LARGE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN NEB.
   DESPITE INFLUX OF STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR INTO THE REGION AND WEAK LIFT
   ON SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THE AIRMASS OVER
   MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF WW 522 WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH
   THAT NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REMNANT LEFT
   SPLITTING SUPERCELL OVER WW 523 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
   AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS OVER SERN SD...SO A
   NEW WW EAST OF WW 523 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   HOWEVER REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE
   MOVES OUT OF NRN WY/SERN MT AND SUPPORTS LARGE SCALE LIFT ON
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG NRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
   CONVECTION OVER WRN NEB.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...
   
   44800160 43080353 42940212 41390212 40610241 40120322
   38710327 38790101 38709979 38689748 41529692 41620043
   43070065 44729845

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IN/WRN OH/N CENTRAL KY
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 210638Z - 210845Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN INDIANA...WHERE
   MARGINAL HAIL THREAT EXISTS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR -- AS A WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF MORE
   EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
   COULD OCCUR.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS PARTS
   OF CENTRAL AND ERN INDIANA...ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF THE
   WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS OCCURRING.
   
   POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE
   ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER -- AND THUS MAIN SEVERE THREAT
   WITH ANY ISOLATED STORM SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
   MARGINAL HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF THE STABLE
   LAYER...AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION ON THE
   MESOSCALE COULD RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
   WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR
   ANY SIGNS OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...WHICH COULD SUBSEQUENTLY
   REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   41338528 40598370 39648412 38138419 37848547 38308633
   40228652 40978639

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...IA...NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...
   
   VALID 210649Z - 210815Z
   
   LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEB WILL LIKELY TRACK
   EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IA/MO OVERNIGHT.  THIS AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE WW.
   
   RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
   EASTERN NEB MOVING EASTWARD AT 25-30 KT.  OVERALL INTENSITY OF
   STORMS HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DIURNAL
   COOLING WEAKENED INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...STORMS WILL REMAIN IN AN
   AXIS OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH 35-40
   KT WESTERLY 500MB FLOW AND 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
   ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHEAR PROFILES...SIZE OF
   MCS...AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION/
   ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL FORMATION.  WE WILL MONITOR
   THIS ACTIVITY FOR SIGNS OF UPSCALE ORGANIZATION WHICH WOULD REQUIRE
   WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..HART.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   41629625 42179503 42399216 41819100 40469100 39849192
   39799430 39879611 40619655

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0627 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 211127Z - 211330Z
   
   CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS ERN IA/NRN
   IL/SRN WI.  STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
   AND/OR LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
   OCCUR. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS SRN WI...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME
   NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE ERN IA/CENTRAL AND
   NRN IL/NRN MO REGION WITH TIME.
   
   40 TO 50 KT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO
   VALLEY AND INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH
   CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING.
   THOUGH A VERY SHALLOW...NOCTURNALLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS
   ACROSS THIS REGION...2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED
   FROM NEB EWD INTO NRN IL/FAR SRN WI.  THIS COMBINED WITH
   FAVORABLY-STRONG WIND FIELD VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO WLY AT 40 TO 50
   KT AT MID-LEVELS HAS SUPPORTED TRANSIENT SEVERE STORMS -- WITH HAIL
   AND A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS.
   
   AREA OF STORMS HAS SHOWN NWD PROPAGATION WITH TIME ACROSS ERN IA AND
   INTO SRN WI DESPITE WLY MEAN FLOW/CELL MOTION -- APPARENTLY DUE TO A
   NWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  WITH STORMS THUS MOVING AWAY FROM MORE
   FAVORABLE REGION OF WARM ADVECTION AND INTO A LESS UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS...EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO REMAIN
   GENERALLY LIMITED.  MEANWHILE...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   VIGOROUS/PERSISTENT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL
   WILL CONTINUE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SERN WI OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
   HOURS.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
   CENTER MOVING ACROSS KS/NEB ATTM...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
   CIRCULATION NOW CROSSING THE MO VALLEY INTO SWRN IA ACCORDING TO
   RADAR LOOP.  ATTM...GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   WEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER...AS UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH
   POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SRN FRINGE OF THE MCS.  WITH SWRN MOST
   CELLS WITHIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER -- ACROSS SERN IA -- RECENTLY
   EXHIBITING A MORE ELY MOVEMENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
   PORTION OF THE MCS FOR SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL
   ONSET OF A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT WHICH WOULD REQUIRE WW
   ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
   
   43808910 43578793 42038689 40678717 39798948 39699404
   40579476 41899356 43349156

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0832 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211332Z - 211500Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS
   ERN NEB AND WRN IA. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. THE STORM ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 50 KT MID-LEVEL
   JET IS LOCATED ACROSS SWRN IA AND THIS IS CREATING VERTICAL SHEAR
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SUSTAINED THIS MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   41079417 40799715 41149821 41769839 42519805 42889625
   42789420 41909364

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA...FAR NRN IL...SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211532Z - 211730Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
   MORNING AS A DEVELOPING MCS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD
   ACROSS ERN IA INTO FAR NRN IL AND NRN IND. AN MCS IS ONGOING ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS
   SRN WI AND IL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG.
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH IS
   SUPPORTING THE MCS. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT JET MID-LEVEL ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE TROUGH OVER ERN IA WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   SUGGESTING THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT
   REMAIN NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   42328832 42129122 42649219 43809192 43918852

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA...FAR NRN IL...SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211532Z - 211730Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
   MORNING AS A DEVELOPING MCS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD
   ACROSS ERN IA INTO FAR NRN IL AND NRN IND. AN MCS IS ONGOING ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS
   SRN WI AND IL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG.
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH IS
   SUPPORTING THE MCS. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT JET MID-LEVEL ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE TROUGH OVER ERN IA WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   SUGGESTING THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT
   REMAIN NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   42328832 42129122 42649219 43809192 43918852

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN...NRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211622Z - 211745Z
   
   A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
   MAY EXPAND SWD INTO NRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ERN MANITOBA
   EXTENDING SSWWD INTO ERN ND. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING
   EWD ACROSS NRN MN AND IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF STORMS ONGOING IN THE
   ARROWHEAD. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND
   JUST AHEAD OF A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WHICH IS CREATING STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND
   MAY EXPAND SWD ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO NRN WI
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS
   MAY ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE IF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   STEEPEN FURTHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...
   
   45739125 45959233 46379259 47619203 48129135 47928999
   47428985 45939058

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SE VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211638Z - 211815Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   ERN NC AND FAR SE VA. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN VA WITH
   A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN NC INTO CNTRL SC AND CNTRL GA.
   SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE 70S F AND MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVEL0PING ALONG THE TROUGH IN RESPONSE
   TO SFC HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS OVER WRN VA. ALTHOUGH
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NC SHOW ONLY ABOUT
   20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING EXISTS BELOW 700 MB.
   THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
   
   34697608 34487734 35327855 36317849 36897695 35947549

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211758Z - 211930Z
   
   CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO. AS THE
   STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A COLD
   FRONT BACKED UP AGAINST THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND FRONT RANGE.
   STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE COLORADO SPRINGS
   AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS. OTHER
   STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SURROUNDING PEAKS AND MOVE EWD INTO THE
   COLORADO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION NEAR COLORADO SPRINGS
   IS DEVELOPING NEAR A MAXIMA IN MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO
   THE RUC AND ALONG A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
   80S F JUST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA. THE HIGH SFC TEMPS
   ARE CREATING LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 40 DEGREES F IN
   PLACES SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST. IN
   ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP SUGGESTING HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   37550319 37640484 38670512 39930478 39970336 39440289
   38580293

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI / U.P. OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211808Z - 211945Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NRN WI AND WILL
   INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. A WW
   APPEARS LIKELY.
   
   STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
   SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS NRN WI
   AND THE U.P. OF MI. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG COLD
   FRONT/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS NWRN WI...AND WILL
   INTENSIFY WITH TIME. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY
   PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY COLD
   AIR ALOFT/STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. IN
   ADDITION...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...IT MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
   WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   46079138 46959042 47548773 46508641 45748702 44678792
   44739178

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211857Z - 212130Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL DIAMETERS OF 0.75-1.00 IN. WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA
   THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE.
   RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-9.0 C AT 500 MB/ AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS. MEAN ELY
   FLOW NEAR 10 KTS IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM SUGGEST STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
   TOWARD THE W.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   27338084 25168051 25168112 26448184 27698271 28668267
   28808191 28698143