Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

All of that is comming my way later.

[Gustywind]

Things are heating up: just hearing the radio...numerous muslides have been reported in Guadeloupe at Trois-Rivières, flooding in some areas (Bouillante, Pointe-Noire) given the journalist. Stay tuned.

[Gustywind]

All of that is comming my way later.

Yeah don't be jealous this girl does not want to give up. Taking a little breath... we have an accalmie.

[expat2carib]

All of that is comming my way later.

Expect lots of rain. There is almost no wind in this system I experienced. Is a new LLC developing?

[msbee]

I guess all that is coming my way too then?
It's hard to know what to expect.
I worry that since everything is calm this morning everyone will go about their business normally, thinking it is all over or it just didn't happen at all.
and then later this afternoon we get storms rolling in or a sudden burst
that's when accidents can happen.

[Gustywind]

I guess all that is coming my way too then?

For sure be carefull msbee matter of timing i tkink that at this afternoon you should begin to feel the effects of TS.
Not good news for us, the forecaster (on the radio right now) tkinks that Erika could stay all the day... she's very fat: moving very slowly!

[expat2carib]

Listening to the radio.

Reports of landslides are being called in. No assessment has been made yet.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030841 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST THU SEP 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
TROPICAL STORM ERICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACH TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. GLOBAL FORECAST
MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUE TO BRING ERIKA VERY
CLOSE OR ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MAIN THREAT TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF THE
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE VI
DURING THE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE EVENING. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...TS ERIKA NOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BTWN
DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST NEAR
5 MPH. EXPECT THESE ISLANDS AND THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TO
EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TROPICAL
FORCE WINDS WITH STRONG TSRA AS ERIKA CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND APPROACHES THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. WX CONDS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE ACROSS TISX...TIST BY 03/14Z...THEN
EVENTUALLY PR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AVIATORS
SHOULD GET FREQUENT UPDATES AS THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. CLOUDINESS AND SHRA WITH ISOLD TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER PR AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURG THE
DAY WITH BRIEF LIFR/MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS
MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MOVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 70 70 50 40
STT 90 79 85 79 / 80 70 50 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

&&

$$

09/72

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031135
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...DISORGANIZED ERIKA CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF ST. KITTS...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...
GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1
WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. KITTS AND ABOUT
220 MILES...350 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND APPROACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.9N 63.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com

- Short burst of wind gusts...
From: Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 08:32:28 -0400

Good Morning to all,
As TS Erika makes her slow track across the island chain into the Caribbean Sea...and this has been an on-going process since yesterday; we have been experiencing short burst of wind gusts; overcast skies with the sun trying to peek through; sea swells are running 2-3 ft; and some off and on light showers, mostly during the evening hours. We will know more as the morning progresses whether we can expect any more weather. The sat pix are impressive at the moment. More later. Have a great day.

Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger

P.O.Box 945, Philipsburg, St. Maarten
Cell: 5204217-primary, 5816323-secondary

Public Relations & Communications
Secondary Email: roddyheyliger at yahoo.com

[FireBird]

Hi folks. Glad to see that my Carib neighbours are doing fairly well this morning. Here in Trinidad, we have had no rain at all as expected, but starting yesterday evening till early this morning, we had very gusty winds - moving N or NW toward Erika. The winds blew down some galvanise and loose items during the night (crash!!!! ). I guess I underestimated how strong it would be. The cars were also covered in dust. I haven't heard any reports of damage, so all in all, things are well. Keep up the vigilance though my northerly friends, and take care.

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

yes, I see it hasn't reached us yet

[cycloneye]

This is from our friend pro met Derek Ortt on his latest analysis this morning on Erika.

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062009forecast.html

[cycloneye]

VI and Puerto Rico is at Tropical Storm Warning

109
WTNT31 KNHC 031436
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...ERIKA STILL A TROPICAL STORM...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...
GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY... ANTIGUA...
BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5
WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX AND
ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND APPROACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.9N 63.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 031437
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT
ERIKA HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THAT THE
CENTER IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A LITTLE...TO 1010 MB. THERE WERE A
FEW UN-FLAGGED SFMR READINGS OF WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN
THE CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE 1200 UTC RADIOSONDE DATA STILL SHOW
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WEST OF
ERIKA...AND THE SAN JUAN RAOB SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY MID- AND
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THIS
EVIDENCE...PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...SUGGESTS THAT
ERIKA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE THIS...
ALMOST ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS ERIKA AS AT LEAST A
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HOLDING ERIKA AS A TROPICAL
STORM THROUGH 12 HOURS AND SLOWLY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE TO A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3.

AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INCLUDING DATA FROM NOAA
BUOY 42060...SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERIKA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
THE ISLAND OF ST. KITTS AND THE BUOY. HOWEVER...THESE DATA ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY WELL DEFINED. ERIKA
IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/07. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF ERIKA...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...OR
NORTHWARD...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
IN ISOLATED AREAS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS TO REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THOSE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.

EVEN IF ERIKA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IT COULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG ITS TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 16.9N 63.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 17.5N 64.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 18.4N 66.1W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0000Z 19.2N 67.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 68.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe back to yellow alert good news for us as things are improving here, rain and tstorms are decreasing whereas that does not mean that all the dangers are spared. We continue to be vigilant in Guadeloupe.
Best wishes and thougts even my prayers for you Msbee and Cycloneye and my carib friends to our North.

[abajan]

Very glad to know that you folks to our northwest have weathered Erika okay. (Unfortunately, the storm is yet to impact some of you.)

[Gustywind]

What's the weather like in St Marteen Msbee? Keep us informed as possible. Hope all is ok, seems that Erika is moving close to your island right now.
We keep our fingers crosses for you and Cycloneye too...
Nice regards Gustywind