Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

[Crostorm]

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070957
SPC AC 070957

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS COMING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...

THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN A
PROMINENT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES...IS PROGGED TO
RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG NEW SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS IT TRACKS TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AT A MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDE THAN THE PRIOR SYSTEM.
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...COUPLED WITH A CONTINUED
GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THIS MAY COMMENCE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE A SIZABLE NUMBER OF MREF
MEMBERS INDICATE MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE GULF STATES...STRONG WESTERLY MEAN FLOW
IN EXCESS OF 50 KT MAY ADVECT THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EASTERN GULF STATES WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...BEFORE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY CUT-OFF NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE
RETURN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING...IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...IS TOO LOW OR UNCERTAIN TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT.

ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
BUT...THE SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS BECOMES TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY
DETERMINE ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 02/07/2009

[srainhoutx]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER POLAR WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.
AND...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS REGIME WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE PROMINENT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY SIMILAR CONCERNING ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS...PARTICULARLY WITH A LEAD IMPULSE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. BY
SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE OUT OF THE PLATEAU
REGION...AS ANOTHER STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS A 90 KT 500 MB
JET STREAK PROPAGATES FROM THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY.

DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...A
RECENT SERIES OF COLD INTRUSIONS HAS SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED THE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH A MODEST
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF THE
WESTERN GULF INTO SOUTH/EAST TEXAS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE QUALITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS ONLY A
SLOW GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION PROCEEDS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL HAMPER DESTABILIZATION...WHILE
PROBABLY ALSO LIMITING THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LOW CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH A DRY
CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RESTRICT
SURFACE HEATING AS FAR WEST AS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE
REGION. BUT...EVEN WITH PEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED CAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THE
KAIN-FRITSCH PARAMETERIZATION INDICATE CAPE AS HIGH AS 750 J/KG OR
SO...BUT SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST VALUES OF 250-500
J/KG ARE MORE LIKELY. EVEN SO...WITH STRONG FORCING...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG OR AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ADVANCING
TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

CONVECTION MAY INITIATE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WHERE EARLY STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
LARGE HAIL. BUT...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NARROW SQUALL LINE BY SUNDAY
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
PLAINS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LARGE
BENEATH STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.

AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING LIFTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WHETHER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM MID- LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...AT LEAST LOW TOPPED CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL
CONTINUE...PERHAPS WITH A LINGERING RISK FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..KERR.. 02/07/2009

[Dave]

Hazardous weather statement posted out of Louisville Ky NWS this morning as follows....

315 AM EST (215 AM CST) SAT FEB 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THESE WINDS COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO THOSE WITH OUTSIDE
INTERESTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WORKING OUTDOORS ON RECENT ICE STORM
DAMAGE REPAIRS OR NEAR AND UNDER TREES WITH LOOSE LIMBS OR BRANCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TWO MAIN STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

BOTH SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...THOUGH AT THIS TIME STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER OUTLOOKS FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION ON WEDNESDAY`S STRONG STORM SYSTEM.

-----------------
I work with 3 weather offices locally because our county is on the W edge of Wilmington Oh office, NE edge of Louisville Ky's office and SE edge of Indianapolis IN, so I pull reports from all 3 offices then put together what may or may not hit our area.

[Shockwave]

It looks like Weds. is going to be the big stormy day here. OHX (Nashville) is calling for a high of 64ºF with a strong SW wind in place and a 70% chance of t'storms. The day 4 or 5 outlook doesn't have my region invloved, but from reading OHX's and LOU's outlook...I'm still in the thick of it too.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tuesday- based on 0Z Euro, Arklatex looks in play. 40 knot LLJ isn't super-extreme, but the trough advancing is a strong one...





I think South and West extent is limited (not sure about HOU, but SAT looks dry) by capping, just guessing off this low resolution map from PSU e-Wall


Wednesday, looks like Euro shows stronger LLJ, but 850 mb 10ºC isotherm suggests surface low will be well North of good instability. But Southward along the cold front into the Southern US...





In my amateur and unofficial opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tyler, TX- lowest 5000 feet a bit too stable for maximum tornado threat, (partially offset by low cloud bases) but instability above that and strong wind fields suggest tornado risk in East Texas and extreme SE Oklahoma not negligible Tuesday.



ETA- surprised GFS showing any precip anywhere close to HOU area, with thick cap. Maybe sprinkles under the cap.

[CrazyC83]

The location seems to be farther east now in terms of the most activity. Based on the models, Wednesday afternoon/evening from about southern Ohio down to Alabama and Georgia is my thinking. But the faster motion could put Tuesday into the mix too...

[srainhoutx]

FWD abit bullish concerning the second system on Tuesday in afternoon AFD...snipet...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND
THREE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
BRING CHANCES OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO NORTH TEXAS.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TOMORROW. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE AT SUNSET
TONIGHT...BUT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AND INCREASE SUNDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY BECAUSE
OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION WAS ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB TODAY...AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL DYNAMIC FORCING ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AN EASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE FROM SEVERE CONVECTION IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH CURLS OFF IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SO WILL THE BEST FORCING. THE CAP WILL HAVE
TROUBLE LIFTING COMPLETELY OVER OUR AREA...AND EVEN WHERE IT DOES
ERODE...LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY MEDIOCRE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES...WITH JUST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING WHEN IT TRAVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NW ZONES...BUT LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH QPF IS FORECAST IN THE SE ZONES.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF THE FIRST. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A CAP TO CONTEND
WITH AND WILL TRACK MORE WEST-EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF. 500 MB TEMPS IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LOW ARE PROGGED NEAR -30C AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSEASONABLY
HIGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPES WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. 60-70KT BULK
SHEAR...AND OVER 400 MS/S2 OF 0-3KM HELICITY WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...EVEN ADVERTISING A LATE AFTERNOON DRY LINE AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. STILL A LOT CAN CHANGE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN
HWO AND INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.

[Ed Mahmoud]

We're getting more into the WRF's powerband, RPM and torque wise, it will be good to have two models that have loads of internet available data for us amateurs, including instability indices and forecast meteograms.

I think Tuesday could indeed be an interesting day, especially just East of DFW.

Couple of hours to the 0Z WRF run.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Again, an area along and East of I-35 from near DFW to near OKC looks interesting for Tuesday afternoon.

NAM:


GFS


NIU skew-T generator never got the news the NAM goes beyond 60 hours, but picking Ardmore, OK, as a representative city severe weather looks likely. In my humble, amateur and unofficial opinion. GFS forecast sounding...

[Shockwave]

After viewing and reading the SPC's Day 4 outlook, I still feel that Wed. will be our day with an intense squall line moves through our region and w/ that line is the chance of some rotating, embedded segments that could produce an isolated, brief tornado or two.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on wording and 30% probs in SPC SWODY3, I expect tomorrow's SWODY2 for Tuesday to have a MODERATE RISK area in ArklaTex/SE Oklahoma area.

ASIDE FROM SOME CONTINUING VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING
THE SPEED AT WHICH THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST CONCERNS LINGERING DOUBTS ABOUT THE
QUALITY OF THE GULF RETURN FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THIS PRECLUDES AN
OUTLOOK OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES THAT COULD ACCOMPANY A
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OF THIS STRENGTH...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
50-70 KT SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL 850 JET STREAK...BENEATH A 90-100+ KT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK. AND...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY INDICATED COULD STILL SHIFT A BIT.

[srainhoutx]

I agree Ed. The only issue will be the lack return flow from the GOM and and breaking of the cap.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE AFTN/TUE NIGHT FROM
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO LWR/MID MS VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTS OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS STATES. EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION...OUT OF
BROADER SCALE TROUGHING WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...IS PROGGED...AS YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. IN
THE WAKE OF A PRIOR SYSTEM...LIKELY STILL GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR WEAK TO
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR.

ASIDE FROM SOME CONTINUING VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING
THE SPEED AT WHICH THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST CONCERNS LINGERING DOUBTS ABOUT THE
QUALITY OF THE GULF RETURN FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THIS PRECLUDES AN
OUTLOOK OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES THAT COULD ACCOMPANY A
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OF THIS STRENGTH...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
50-70 KT SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL 850 JET STREAK...BENEATH A 90-100+ KT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK. AND...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY INDICATED COULD STILL SHIFT A BIT.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER HALF OF MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CAPE
AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN ABOVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S TO
AROUND 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE
OZARK PLATEAU. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO PRECLUDE THE INITIATION OF STORMS PRIOR TO LATE
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EARLY EVENING. BUT...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT A CONFLUENCE ZONE/ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
NEAR THE INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET CORE COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
DISCRETE STORMS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF THIS
OCCURS...LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL CLOCKWISE CURVATURE
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES.

ANY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO/
THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU TUESDAY EVENING...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOP TO THE WEST...FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS STRENGTHENING LINEAR FORCING
ENCOUNTERS THE BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THE
EVOLUTION OF AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED
BY THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITH THE RISK FOR
CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE AS IT SURGES EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 02/08/2009

[CrazyC83]

I don't know about the squall line part...wind shear from my view suggests everything will be rotating...timing is everything though.

[RL3AO]

US plays Mexico in Columbus on Wednesday in World Cup qualifying. Might be an interesting night.

US soccer federation put the game in Columbus hoping for cold weather to cause the Mexicans problems. Looks like that might backfire.

[RL3AO]

There hasn't been a watch since January 8th (WW#0005). At this point last year, there had been 48 issued.

[Bunkertor]

As i see, the squall line has already approached Boston. Wow, that was fast.

[RL3AO]

MD



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...E-CENTRAL AND SERN NM...SMALL
PART OF W TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still looks to me DFW to OKC and points East on Tuesday late afternoon and evening



Incredible shear in Ohio valley Wednesday, but instability may be so weak that updrafts are sheared apart, rather than rotate.



Fairly favorable sounding in North Central Texas for all severe modes Tuesday afternoon.

[RL3AO]

Convection starting to pop in eastern NM.