Severe Weather 5/24/2010

[cwachal]

it has got to be a PDS they are already showing 3500 SBCAPE

But is there a significant capping still there? Those dynamics with no cap would warrant a High Risk. If capping is a factor, it would be better to put just a normal Tornado Watch with numbers like 50/50.

the capping is there but should be gone across the entire region in about 1 hour

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1205 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1205 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK...OR NEAR
PARKIN...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORREST
CITY...MADISON AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK.

[Dave]

MAY 24 123500 EDT
TSTM WND DMG
MARTIN, TN
WEAKLEY CTY
FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
POWER LINES DOWN ADN ONE BUILDING
IN DOWNTOWN MARTIN PARTIALLY COLLAPSED
DUE TO WIND AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

[cwachal]

WWUS54 KAMA 241702
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1202 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

OKC139-TXC195-421-241745-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-100524T1745Z/
TEXAS OK-SHERMAN TX-HANSFORD TX-
1202 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN HANSFORD...EASTERN SHERMAN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES...

AT NOON CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR TEXHOMA...OR ABOUT 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUYMON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...GOODWELL
AND GUYMON.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3615 10188 3642 10186 3661 10187 3677 10170
3667 10136 3633 10142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 211DEG 39KT 3649 10172

$$

NUNEZ




time of arrival according to my cell tracking overlay for GRlevel3:

Goodwell OK: 12:11
Guymon, OK: 12:26
Optima, OK: 12:41

Remember radar has indicated weak rotation and a tornado watch is in affect

[cwachal]

dew points have spiked into the 70s in SD

[cwachal]

WWUS54 KMEG 241713
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

TNC045-053-131-183-241730-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-100524T1730Z/
GIBSON TN-WEAKLEY TN-OBION TN-DYER TN-
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DYER...OBION...WEST CENTRAL WEAKLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
GIBSON COUNTIES...

AT 1213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT PELIA...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF UNION
CITY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARTIN...
RIVES...TRIMBLE...UNION CITY...YORKVILLE...WOLVERINE...GLASS...
GIBBS...MC CONNELL...SHAFFNER...MC CUTCHEN HEIGHTS...MOFFATT...MASON
HALL AND TERRELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8915 3636 8935 3650 8884 3634 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 062DEG 14KT 3631 8902

$$


TLSJR

[cwachal]

WUUS55 KCYS 241712
SVRCYS
NEC007-105-241745-
/O.NEW.KCYS.SV.W.0017.100524T1712Z-100524T1745Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1112 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BANNER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...
CENTRAL KIMBALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM MDT

* AT 1110 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KIMBALL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HARRISBURG AROUND 1135 AM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN CHEYENNE.

&&

LAT...LON 4158 10383 4162 10355 4117 10350 4115 10374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 173DEG 43KT 4125 10364
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

JAMSKI

[cwachal]

the cluster of storms in the NE panhandle needs to be watched

[cwachal]

the storm in OK has weakened and although is still warned it is below svr strength

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241715Z - 241815Z

ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR MIDLAND MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND IN
COVERAGE NWD AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WW REMAINS
POSSIBLE.

CU FIELD IS BECOMING AGITATED ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
DALHART...WEST OF LUBBOCK... WINK AND INTO MARFA...WITH INITIATION
ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR MIDLAND. WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OBSERVED
ON 12Z MAF/AMA SOUNDINGS HAS ALREADY ERODED AS AMPLE HEATING HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
ALTHOUGH STORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING IN THE DRIER AIR...SSWLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE AIR MASS E OF THE
DRYLINE...WHERE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST. VAD WIND
PROFILE DATA INDICATES WEAKENING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS NEWD OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...30 TO 35 KTS
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
AS CONVECTION PROGRESSES INTO GREATER INSTABILITY. DUE TO ISOLATED
NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..HURLBUT.. 05/24/2010


ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[CrazyC83]

Watch coming out now. The big question is whether or not it will be PDS.

[cwachal]

the storm motion looks to be north at 60 mph on the cells in NE

[CrazyC83]

Tornado probs are 80/50, surprised it is not PDS with those numbers. Maybe they will correct it in an update?

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN NEBRASKA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL 800
PM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SIDNEY
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 212...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS JUST BEGINNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE CO/SE WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...IN ADVANCE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING NNEWD FROM CO. THE
COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...AS
WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE MORE
INTO CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20045.


...THOMPSON

[Dave]

No pds on this one...see you have it Crazy, going for an image outline.

[Dave]

Tornado Watch 213

[cwachal]

Probabilities on the Tornado Watch

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (50%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (50%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

[cwachal]

WUUS55 KCYS 241730
SVRCYS
NEC045-165-241830-
/O.NEW.KCYS.SV.W.0019.100524T1730Z-100524T1830Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1130 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DAWES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...
NORTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM MDT

* AT 1129 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BELMONT...OR 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHADRON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 65
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WHITNEY LAKE AROUND 1140 AM MDT.
NORMAN RESERVOIR AROUND 1145 AM MDT.
WOLF BUTTE AND AGATE DAM RESERVOIR AROUND 1155 AM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10379 4299 10301 4253 10328 4251 10352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 175DEG 55KT 4262 10341
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN



pretty significant rotation now on that cell

[cwachal]

WFUS55 KCYS 241733
TORCYS
NEC007-105-241815-
/O.NEW.KCYS.TO.W.0012.100524T1733Z-100524T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1133 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BANNER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...
CENTRAL KIMBALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM MDT

* AT 1129 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KIMBALL AIRPORT...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
KIMBALL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
KIMBALL AND BENNETT RESERVOIR AROUND 1140 AM MDT.
BIGHORN MOUNTAIN AND HARRISBURG AROUND 1205 PM MDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND
26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4162 10391 4162 10342 4110 10361 4112 10378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 184DEG 45KT 4117 10365

$$

RUBIN


Here we go --- image of storm coming soon

[cwachal]

Here is an image of tornado warned cell

the right image is a zoomed in on rotation image

[cwachal]

the rotation is bearing down on Kimball right now it has a 100%/100% hail probs on it with 3.25 hail marker on it along with a TVS