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Severe weather outbreak? February 24-25
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srainhoutx
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? February 25-26
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN AR...NRN
MS...AND WRN TN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX EWD
INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LOW...NOW OFF THE WRN COAST OF BAJA CA...WILL BE
PICKED UP BY THE SRN STREAM JET AND WILL EMERGE INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS
BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK EWD INTO NRN AR BY 00Z...AND CONTINUING
NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. INCREASING
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE BOUNDED ON THE N END BY A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 39.50 DEGREE PARALLEL
AT 00Z.
...ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO KY AND TN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SRN OK
THU MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SURGE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. OTHER STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM KS EWD INTO THE
OH VALLEY WHERE A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND
NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FROM N TX INTO ERN OK
BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL AND INCREASING SEVERE WIND
THREAT. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEMPER THE INITIAL THREAT OF
TORNADOES. THE MOST DANGEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...FIRST ACROSS AR THEN SPREADING NEWD
ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. HERE...850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT.
TORNADOES...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS IT WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY...THE MORE NRN ECMWF SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...BUT A SWD SHIFT IN FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD RESULT IN
A COMPRESSION OF THE NRN EDGE OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..JEWELL.. 02/23/2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN AR...NRN
MS...AND WRN TN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX EWD
INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LOW...NOW OFF THE WRN COAST OF BAJA CA...WILL BE
PICKED UP BY THE SRN STREAM JET AND WILL EMERGE INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS
BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK EWD INTO NRN AR BY 00Z...AND CONTINUING
NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. INCREASING
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE BOUNDED ON THE N END BY A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 39.50 DEGREE PARALLEL
AT 00Z.
...ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO KY AND TN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SRN OK
THU MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SURGE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. OTHER STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM KS EWD INTO THE
OH VALLEY WHERE A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND
NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FROM N TX INTO ERN OK
BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL AND INCREASING SEVERE WIND
THREAT. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEMPER THE INITIAL THREAT OF
TORNADOES. THE MOST DANGEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...FIRST ACROSS AR THEN SPREADING NEWD
ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. HERE...850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT.
TORNADOES...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS IT WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY...THE MORE NRN ECMWF SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...BUT A SWD SHIFT IN FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD RESULT IN
A COMPRESSION OF THE NRN EDGE OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..JEWELL.. 02/23/2011
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srainhoutx
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? February 25-26
Moderate Risk extended S and W to now include Texarkana...
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THU AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...PARTS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN BROADLY CONFLUENT
DOWNSTREAM OF PROMINENT EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCKING THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG JET APPEARS
LIKELY TO ROUND THE CREST OF A STRENGTHENING HIGH CENTER NEAR THE
GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF A WEAKENING CIRCULATION CENTER NOW TURNING INLAND
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA.
DESPITE THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT FLOW FIELDS WILL INTENSIFY TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST...AS
IT ACCELERATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...INTO AND THROUGH THE
CREST OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
THURSDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A RETURN FLOW
ALREADY DEVELOPING OFF AN INCREASING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. BY THURSDAY EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE MAY
NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP THURSDAY...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN /INCLUDING INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.5 INCHES/ OFF THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST WEAK CAPE. GIVEN MID
60S TO NEAR 70F DEW POINTS CURRENTLY PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN GULF
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...CURRENT MODEL PROGS MAY BE A BIT LOW ON
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
OZARK PLATEAU BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
...WHICH IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT
ORIENTATION...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE 21-23Z
TIME FRAME. COINCIDING WITH STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...UP TO 70 KT OR SO DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THE EVOLUTION OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS BENEATH/NEAR A 90-100 KT 500 MB JET... POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES.
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR OR IN ADVANCE OF A
FRONTAL OR PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH APPEARS MORE CERTAIN TO
EVOLVE...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE 03-05Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE...WHILE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUES DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
..KERR.. 02/23/2011
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THU AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...PARTS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN BROADLY CONFLUENT
DOWNSTREAM OF PROMINENT EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCKING THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG JET APPEARS
LIKELY TO ROUND THE CREST OF A STRENGTHENING HIGH CENTER NEAR THE
GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF A WEAKENING CIRCULATION CENTER NOW TURNING INLAND
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA.
DESPITE THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT FLOW FIELDS WILL INTENSIFY TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST...AS
IT ACCELERATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...INTO AND THROUGH THE
CREST OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
THURSDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A RETURN FLOW
ALREADY DEVELOPING OFF AN INCREASING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. BY THURSDAY EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE MAY
NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP THURSDAY...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN /INCLUDING INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.5 INCHES/ OFF THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST WEAK CAPE. GIVEN MID
60S TO NEAR 70F DEW POINTS CURRENTLY PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN GULF
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...CURRENT MODEL PROGS MAY BE A BIT LOW ON
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
OZARK PLATEAU BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
...WHICH IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT
ORIENTATION...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE 21-23Z
TIME FRAME. COINCIDING WITH STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...UP TO 70 KT OR SO DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THE EVOLUTION OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS BENEATH/NEAR A 90-100 KT 500 MB JET... POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES.
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR OR IN ADVANCE OF A
FRONTAL OR PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH APPEARS MORE CERTAIN TO
EVOLVE...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE 03-05Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE...WHILE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUES DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
..KERR.. 02/23/2011
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Metalicwx220
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AnnularCane
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South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4201
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- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Severe weather outbreak? February 25-26
AnnularCane wrote:Isn't the date for this the 24th, not 25-26?
Yep you're right. It is for tomorrow afternoon/evening through tomorrow night.
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South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re:
Metalicwx220 wrote:Yeah.. CrazyC83 won't change the thread name lol.
I think you have to be a moderator to change the name of threads.
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TwisterFanatic
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
- Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma
Weatherguy here says the system has slowed down on the models, and the slight and moderate risk should shift westward next outlook. Haven't been able to look at the models, can anyone confirm? Thanks
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 241258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR
TN VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE SRN PLNS ENE INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NM EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE
INTO ERN OK BY EVE AND INTO THE MID OH VLY BY 12Z FRI. AT THE
SFC...LOW NOW EVOLVING IN NW TX/SW OK SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND
ACCELERATE ENE INTO N CNTRL AR BY EVE...BEFORE UNDERGOING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING AND REACHING NRN WV EARLY FRI. PACIFIC COLD
FRONT NOW EMERGING OVER W TX SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY E ACROSS TX
AND SRN OK. THE FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE AN AXIS OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER E TX AND THE ARKLATEX LATER
TODAY...AND CONTINUE E TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN/CNTRL
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI.
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND ASCENT WITH PROGRESSIVE
UPR IMPULSE...CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH PW INCREASING TO AOA
1.50 INCHES/...AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK
OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR/TN AND ADJACENT STATES LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
...SRN PLNS ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY/LWR OH VLYS...
STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW IN WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING SFC LOW
WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NWD AND EWD INTO THE LWR MS AND
TN VLYS LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE LWR/MID OH VLY BY TONIGHT...WITH
PW VALUES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES. COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE SFC HEATING...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP TO
SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS AS 90-120 METER MID-LVL
HEIGHT FALLS WITH UPR IMPULSE SWEEP ENEWD.
TSTMS NOW OVER NW TX AND SW THROUGH NE OK SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE
AND POSSIBLY STRENGTH THROUGH MIDDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES
ENE INTO MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT. RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES AND SIZABLE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AS THE STORMS
MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY ENEWD.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM TOWARD MIDDAY OR BY EARLY AFTN
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM ERN OK/WRN AR SSW THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
INTO E TX. A FEW STORMS ALSO MAY FORM NEAR INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ENE FROM THE AR SFC LOW INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN. BOTH THE
CONFLUENCE AXIS STORMS AND THOSE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
ACCESS TO THE RICHEST MOISTURE INFLOW AND MAXIMUM SFC HEATING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH POCKETS OF SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1250 J PER KG.
IN ADDITION...LOW- TO MID-LVL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY AS CORE OF 50+ KT 700 MB SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NM
UPR IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION. THUS...THE AR AREA STORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR HIGH-IMPACT SVR WEATHER INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY STRONG
TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST FROM LATE
THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT NEAR WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/NERN AR
AND WRN/MIDDLE TN...WHERE 200-300 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WILL EXIST INVOF
DEEPENING SFC LOW.
THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE QLCS BY MID-EVE...WITH
OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT TO THE ENE ACROSS TN/LWR OH VLYS...AND
DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO LA/MS/AL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUING
THREAT DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRACK OF SFC LOW ...AND FARTHER S IN
AREA OF GREATER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IN MIDDLE TN...MS...AND NRN/WRN
AL.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 02/24/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1507Z (10:07AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR
TN VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE SRN PLNS ENE INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NM EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE
INTO ERN OK BY EVE AND INTO THE MID OH VLY BY 12Z FRI. AT THE
SFC...LOW NOW EVOLVING IN NW TX/SW OK SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND
ACCELERATE ENE INTO N CNTRL AR BY EVE...BEFORE UNDERGOING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING AND REACHING NRN WV EARLY FRI. PACIFIC COLD
FRONT NOW EMERGING OVER W TX SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY E ACROSS TX
AND SRN OK. THE FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE AN AXIS OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER E TX AND THE ARKLATEX LATER
TODAY...AND CONTINUE E TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN/CNTRL
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI.
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND ASCENT WITH PROGRESSIVE
UPR IMPULSE...CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH PW INCREASING TO AOA
1.50 INCHES/...AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK
OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR/TN AND ADJACENT STATES LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
...SRN PLNS ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY/LWR OH VLYS...
STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW IN WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING SFC LOW
WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NWD AND EWD INTO THE LWR MS AND
TN VLYS LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE LWR/MID OH VLY BY TONIGHT...WITH
PW VALUES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES. COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE SFC HEATING...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP TO
SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS AS 90-120 METER MID-LVL
HEIGHT FALLS WITH UPR IMPULSE SWEEP ENEWD.
TSTMS NOW OVER NW TX AND SW THROUGH NE OK SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE
AND POSSIBLY STRENGTH THROUGH MIDDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES
ENE INTO MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT. RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES AND SIZABLE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AS THE STORMS
MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY ENEWD.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM TOWARD MIDDAY OR BY EARLY AFTN
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM ERN OK/WRN AR SSW THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
INTO E TX. A FEW STORMS ALSO MAY FORM NEAR INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ENE FROM THE AR SFC LOW INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN. BOTH THE
CONFLUENCE AXIS STORMS AND THOSE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
ACCESS TO THE RICHEST MOISTURE INFLOW AND MAXIMUM SFC HEATING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH POCKETS OF SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1250 J PER KG.
IN ADDITION...LOW- TO MID-LVL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY AS CORE OF 50+ KT 700 MB SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NM
UPR IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION. THUS...THE AR AREA STORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR HIGH-IMPACT SVR WEATHER INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY STRONG
TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST FROM LATE
THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT NEAR WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/NERN AR
AND WRN/MIDDLE TN...WHERE 200-300 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WILL EXIST INVOF
DEEPENING SFC LOW.
THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE QLCS BY MID-EVE...WITH
OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT TO THE ENE ACROSS TN/LWR OH VLYS...AND
DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO LA/MS/AL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUING
THREAT DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRACK OF SFC LOW ...AND FARTHER S IN
AREA OF GREATER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IN MIDDLE TN...MS...AND NRN/WRN
AL.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 02/24/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1507Z (10:07AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 240930
ARZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-241800-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER TENNESSEE...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR
FROM NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...INTO ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
A POTENT JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN NEW MEXICO WILL SWEEP
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING IN OKLAHOMA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN OHIO EARLY FRIDAY.
A BROAD CURRENT OF MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS OF THE JET STREAM WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AS DAYTIME HEATING
FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO ONE OR MORE
LONG-LIVED BANDS THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE MOST NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE...BUT MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.
..CORFIDI.. 02/24/2011
$$
WOUS40 KWNS 240930
ARZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-241800-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER TENNESSEE...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR
FROM NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...INTO ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
A POTENT JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN NEW MEXICO WILL SWEEP
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING IN OKLAHOMA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN OHIO EARLY FRIDAY.
A BROAD CURRENT OF MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS OF THE JET STREAM WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AS DAYTIME HEATING
FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO ONE OR MORE
LONG-LIVED BANDS THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE MOST NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE...BUT MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.
..CORFIDI.. 02/24/2011
$$
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? February 24-25
Here we go... I think this storm is starting to have that look as if it is going to be a supercell
0 likes
Re: Severe weather outbreak? February 24-25
We have severe hail developing yet the NWS has dropped the warning?!?!?!
0 likes
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 241604
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR
TN VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE SRN PLNS ENE INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG S/W TROUGH NOW SRN HI PLAINS ON TRACK AND WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS
NRN AR INTO KY. WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS ERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR AND
SRN TN WILL LIFT NWD THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A MOIST WARM SECTOR TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MS VLY INTO TN VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND ASCENT WITH PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH...CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH PW INCREASING TO AOA 1.50
INCHES/...AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK OF SVR
TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR/TN AND ADJACENT STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
...SERN OK/ERN TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY/LWR OH VLYS...
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MODERATE SFC HEATING WITH TEMPS RISING THRU THE
70S WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...TO
SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ACROSS NERN TX INTO SERN
OK/WRN AR AS 90-120 METER MID-LVL HEIGHT FALLS WITH UPR IMPULSE
SWEEP ENEWD.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...7C/KM...AND SIZABLE
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AS THE STORMS
MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY ENEWD.
A FEW STORMS ALSO MAY FORM NEAR INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ENE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ERN OK/WRN AR INTO
WRN/MIDDLE TN.
WITH LOW TO MID-LVL SHEAR INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE OVERSPREADING THE
REGION...ARKANSAS AREA STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH-IMPACT SVR
WEATHER INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE GREATEST FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT NEAR
WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/NERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN...WHERE 300-400
M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WILL EXIST INVOF DEEPENING SFC LOW.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE CURRENT MDT MAY BE A LITTLE FAR N
INTO SRN KY GIVEN THE CURRENT VERY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER
WITH THE TRACK OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THIS AREA THERE
IS AT LEAST A THREAT OF AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOS. THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN
THE MDT RISK ATTM.
THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE QLCS BY MID-EVE...WITH
OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT TO THE ENE ACROSS TN/LWR OH VLYS...AND
DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO LA/MS/AL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUING
THREAT DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRACK OF SFC LOW ...AND FARTHER S IN
AREA OF GREATER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IN MIDDLE TN...MS...AND NRN/WRN
AL.
..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/24/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1618Z (11:18AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR
TN VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE SRN PLNS ENE INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG S/W TROUGH NOW SRN HI PLAINS ON TRACK AND WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS
NRN AR INTO KY. WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS ERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR AND
SRN TN WILL LIFT NWD THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A MOIST WARM SECTOR TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MS VLY INTO TN VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND ASCENT WITH PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH...CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH PW INCREASING TO AOA 1.50
INCHES/...AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK OF SVR
TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR/TN AND ADJACENT STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
...SERN OK/ERN TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY/LWR OH VLYS...
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MODERATE SFC HEATING WITH TEMPS RISING THRU THE
70S WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...TO
SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ACROSS NERN TX INTO SERN
OK/WRN AR AS 90-120 METER MID-LVL HEIGHT FALLS WITH UPR IMPULSE
SWEEP ENEWD.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...7C/KM...AND SIZABLE
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AS THE STORMS
MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY ENEWD.
A FEW STORMS ALSO MAY FORM NEAR INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ENE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ERN OK/WRN AR INTO
WRN/MIDDLE TN.
WITH LOW TO MID-LVL SHEAR INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE OVERSPREADING THE
REGION...ARKANSAS AREA STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH-IMPACT SVR
WEATHER INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE GREATEST FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT NEAR
WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/NERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN...WHERE 300-400
M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WILL EXIST INVOF DEEPENING SFC LOW.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE CURRENT MDT MAY BE A LITTLE FAR N
INTO SRN KY GIVEN THE CURRENT VERY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER
WITH THE TRACK OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THIS AREA THERE
IS AT LEAST A THREAT OF AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOS. THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN
THE MDT RISK ATTM.
THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE QLCS BY MID-EVE...WITH
OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT TO THE ENE ACROSS TN/LWR OH VLYS...AND
DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO LA/MS/AL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUING
THREAT DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRACK OF SFC LOW ...AND FARTHER S IN
AREA OF GREATER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IN MIDDLE TN...MS...AND NRN/WRN
AL.
..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/24/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1618Z (11:18AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK/TX...WRN AR AND NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241634Z - 241730Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITHIN BROADER WARM CONVEYOR FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH
OF THE DFW METROPLEX...NWD INTO OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING
WITHIN A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY
STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IT APPEARS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING WILL
GRADUALLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ENABLING NEAR-SFC BASED
CONVECTION TO ROOT INTO MORE BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS.
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
..DARROW.. 02/24/2011
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32029634 35599561 35039295 31689387 32029634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK/TX...WRN AR AND NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241634Z - 241730Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITHIN BROADER WARM CONVEYOR FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH
OF THE DFW METROPLEX...NWD INTO OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING
WITHIN A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY
STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IT APPEARS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING WILL
GRADUALLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ENABLING NEAR-SFC BASED
CONVECTION TO ROOT INTO MORE BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS.
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
..DARROW.. 02/24/2011
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32029634 35599561 35039295 31689387 32029634
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-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Severe weather outbreak? February 24-25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
.UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED FROM FORREST CITY AR...TO WEST
MEMPHIS AR...TO MILLINGTON TN...TO JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON TN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT.
SOME OF WHICH ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT
HAS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
OCCUR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL IS ALREADY
SITTING AT 68 DEGREES. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
JUMP INTO THE 70S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS GET
CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. WILL NEED TO BUMP UP HIGHS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. SUPERCELLS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
STAY TUNED FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY.
KRM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
.UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED FROM FORREST CITY AR...TO WEST
MEMPHIS AR...TO MILLINGTON TN...TO JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON TN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT.
SOME OF WHICH ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT
HAS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
OCCUR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL IS ALREADY
SITTING AT 68 DEGREES. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
JUMP INTO THE 70S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS GET
CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. WILL NEED TO BUMP UP HIGHS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. SUPERCELLS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
STAY TUNED FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY.
KRM
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
tim_aka_tim
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7
- Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 1:18 pm
- Location: Longview, TX
Re: Severe weather outbreak? February 24-25
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
606 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-241800-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
606 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE THAT WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
SPREADS EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INITIAL BAND
OF CONVECTION ALONG A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE THEY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND RACE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS...BEFORE THEY
EXIT THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND COULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
606 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-241800-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
606 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE THAT WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
SPREADS EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INITIAL BAND
OF CONVECTION ALONG A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE THEY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND RACE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS...BEFORE THEY
EXIT THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND COULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
$$
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