SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 505 AM UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 100...WW 101...WW
102...WW 103...
DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH THE DE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WITHIN A
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY
EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27050.
...MEAD
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low
Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 505 AM UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 100...WW 101...WW
102...WW 103...
DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH THE DE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WITHIN A
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY
EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27050.
...MEAD
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 505 AM UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 100...WW 101...WW
102...WW 103...
DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH THE DE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WITHIN A
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY
EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27050.
...MEAD
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 050901
WOU4
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MDC015-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0104.110405T0905Z-110405T1400Z/
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CECIL
NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-
041-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0104.110405T0905Z-110405T1400Z/
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN
SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX
WARREN
PAC011-017-025-029-045-077-089-091-095-101-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0104.110405T0905Z-110405T1400Z/
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH
MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA
ANZ431-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0104.110405T0905Z-110405T1400Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
ATTN...WFO...PHI...
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 104 SEVERE TSTM MD NJ PA CW 050905Z - 051400Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNW EWR/NEWARK NJ/ - 15SW PHL/PHILADELPHIA PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /8NE SAX - 47NW SIE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27050.
LAT...LON 41157355 39707459 39707630 41157529
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 104 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 104
VALID 051030Z - 051140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE ILG
TO 20 SSE ABE TO 30 ESE AVP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 354.
..EDWARDS..04/05/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 104
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-
041-051140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN
SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX
WARREN
$$
PAC017-045-091-101-051140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCKS DELAWARE MONTGOMERY
PHILADELPHIA
$$
ANZ431-051140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low
Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (<5%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (<5%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
Go to md0364 discussion
A little too close for comfort even though it was several miles away from work. 