Severe Weather April 9/10/11 Upper Midwest & Deep South
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:MDT risk today and Sunday withSPC saying high risk likely Sunday.
I was wondering where you got that, but I see it now in the Day2
THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
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WeatherGuesser
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srainhoutx
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:Could we get the extremely rare day 2 high risk later today?
My hunch is Sunday will be the day to watch for any High Risk...
SPC:
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Re: Re:
srainhoutx wrote:RL3AO wrote:Could we get the extremely rare day 2 high risk later today?
My hunch is Sunday will be the day to watch for any High Risk...
SPC:
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
I meant them upgrading to high risk for Sunday today.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Some of the AFD's are just spooky.
La Crosse:
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ROUND 2...AS MAIN SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO
MINNESOTA. FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND AFTER DISCUSSION
WITH SPC THERE IS A CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG TRACK
TORNADOES IN VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACH
300 M2/S2. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE GENESIS AREA OF
SUPERCELLS IN THE EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN SLIDING EASTWARD. NONE
THE LESS THIS COULD BECOME A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION AND
PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. HIGHER
END PROBABILITIES PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE EARLY MONDAY
FOR SHOWERS...BUT SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LOWER PROBABILITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THEN MONDAY NIGHT.
La Crosse:
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ROUND 2...AS MAIN SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO
MINNESOTA. FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND AFTER DISCUSSION
WITH SPC THERE IS A CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG TRACK
TORNADOES IN VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACH
300 M2/S2. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE GENESIS AREA OF
SUPERCELLS IN THE EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN SLIDING EASTWARD. NONE
THE LESS THIS COULD BECOME A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION AND
PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. HIGHER
END PROBABILITIES PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE EARLY MONDAY
FOR SHOWERS...BUT SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LOWER PROBABILITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THEN MONDAY NIGHT.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather April 9/10 Upper Midwest
SPC AC 091621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2011
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN SD NERN NE
ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA INTO SWRN WI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
CNTRL MN/WI...SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB INTO NWRN TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KY/TN SEWD INTO WRN NC
AND SC/NERN GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR WRN TROF WILL START ITS EWD MOVE WITH A VERY STRONG JET
DRIVING NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
DEEPEN NEWD ACROSS NEB BY THIS EVENING MOVING INTO SWRN MN BY 12Z
SUN. STRONG SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD THRU THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AS WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SRN NEB TO NRN MO LIFTS NWD.
FURTHER EAST A WELL DEVELOPED MCS OVER LOWER OH VALLEY WILL TURN S
OF E ON THE E SIDE OF RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. A MOIST AND
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM SEWD ACROSS APPALACHIANS INTO
CAROLINAS COUPLED WITH THE OBSERVED MID LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT WILL
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...ERN KY/TN SEWD THRU THE CAROLINAS...
AS THE AIR MASS HEATS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS AIR MASS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE SEWD ACROSS ERN KY/TN INTO CAROLINAS TO THE
S OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS NRN NC THEN SEWD ALONG SC/NC BORDER SHOULD SLOW AND BE THE
NWD LIMIT OF THE GREATER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CURRENT LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS OH
RIVER INTO NRN KY EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SEWD INTO AREA OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 2500
J/KG AND THE 50-60KT OF BRN SHEAR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AND
EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS. ALONG WITH THE WIND DAMAGE
CONCERN...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INCLUDING A TORNADO
THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
ONE FAVORED AREA WOULD BE THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
VICINITY BACKDOOR FRONT CAROLINAS.
...SD/IA/MN/NEB...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING DEEPENING THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND TRACKING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SD/NEB BY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000-3000J/KG. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
NUMBER OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT CAN FORM...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE BEING THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH 00Z. THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL HAVE A
RISK OF TORNADOES AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE
MN/IA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE MDT RISK A LITTLE S INTO WRN IA/NERN NEB AS HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE STORM INITIATION LIKELY VICINITY ERN
NE/IA BORDER BY 00Z. IF SO THESE STORMS WOULD QUICKLY BECOME
SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH
TORNADOES.
AFTER 00Z...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION
AND LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AN EXPANDING AREA OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
...KS/OK/TX...
LITTLE CHANGE IN EARLIER IDEA OF DRY LINE POTENTIAL. IT IS VERY
CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP. HOWEVER ANY STORM
THAT INITIATES WOULD QUICKLY BECOME AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EAST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OK AND WEST-CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS AXIS WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL ALSO BE QUITE FAVORABLE IN THIS REGION FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE THIS CONDITIONAL
RISK...ONLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CA TROUGH IS
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. SOME OF THE EXPERIMENTAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHWEST TX...SO HAVE USED THAT AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK.
..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/09/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1631Z (12:31PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2011
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN SD NERN NE
ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA INTO SWRN WI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
CNTRL MN/WI...SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB INTO NWRN TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KY/TN SEWD INTO WRN NC
AND SC/NERN GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR WRN TROF WILL START ITS EWD MOVE WITH A VERY STRONG JET
DRIVING NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
DEEPEN NEWD ACROSS NEB BY THIS EVENING MOVING INTO SWRN MN BY 12Z
SUN. STRONG SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD THRU THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AS WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SRN NEB TO NRN MO LIFTS NWD.
FURTHER EAST A WELL DEVELOPED MCS OVER LOWER OH VALLEY WILL TURN S
OF E ON THE E SIDE OF RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. A MOIST AND
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM SEWD ACROSS APPALACHIANS INTO
CAROLINAS COUPLED WITH THE OBSERVED MID LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT WILL
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...ERN KY/TN SEWD THRU THE CAROLINAS...
AS THE AIR MASS HEATS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS AIR MASS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE SEWD ACROSS ERN KY/TN INTO CAROLINAS TO THE
S OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS NRN NC THEN SEWD ALONG SC/NC BORDER SHOULD SLOW AND BE THE
NWD LIMIT OF THE GREATER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CURRENT LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS OH
RIVER INTO NRN KY EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SEWD INTO AREA OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 2500
J/KG AND THE 50-60KT OF BRN SHEAR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AND
EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS. ALONG WITH THE WIND DAMAGE
CONCERN...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INCLUDING A TORNADO
THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
ONE FAVORED AREA WOULD BE THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
VICINITY BACKDOOR FRONT CAROLINAS.
...SD/IA/MN/NEB...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING DEEPENING THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND TRACKING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SD/NEB BY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000-3000J/KG. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
NUMBER OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT CAN FORM...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE BEING THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH 00Z. THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL HAVE A
RISK OF TORNADOES AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE
MN/IA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE MDT RISK A LITTLE S INTO WRN IA/NERN NEB AS HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE STORM INITIATION LIKELY VICINITY ERN
NE/IA BORDER BY 00Z. IF SO THESE STORMS WOULD QUICKLY BECOME
SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH
TORNADOES.
AFTER 00Z...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION
AND LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AN EXPANDING AREA OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
...KS/OK/TX...
LITTLE CHANGE IN EARLIER IDEA OF DRY LINE POTENTIAL. IT IS VERY
CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP. HOWEVER ANY STORM
THAT INITIATES WOULD QUICKLY BECOME AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EAST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OK AND WEST-CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS AXIS WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL ALSO BE QUITE FAVORABLE IN THIS REGION FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE THIS CONDITIONAL
RISK...ONLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CA TROUGH IS
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. SOME OF THE EXPERIMENTAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHWEST TX...SO HAVE USED THAT AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK.
..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/09/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1631Z (12:31PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
This is from the warm front MCS (derecho?) in the South.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF
JACKSON KENTUCKY TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 111...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF ONGOING MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN KY. WITH THE
AIR MASS BECOMING MDTLY UNSTABLE AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING WITH
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL JET...STORMS WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO LINE
SEGMENTS AND BOWS WITH ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON ENHANCING BOTH
THE LARGE HAIL THREAT AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE E/SEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...HALES
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF
JACKSON KENTUCKY TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 111...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF ONGOING MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN KY. WITH THE
AIR MASS BECOMING MDTLY UNSTABLE AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING WITH
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL JET...STORMS WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO LINE
SEGMENTS AND BOWS WITH ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON ENHANCING BOTH
THE LARGE HAIL THREAT AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE E/SEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...HALES
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srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Re:
RL3AO wrote:srainhoutx wrote:RL3AO wrote:Could we get the extremely rare day 2 high risk later today?
My hunch is Sunday will be the day to watch for any High Risk...
SPC:
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
I meant them upgrading to high risk for Sunday today.
Not yet...
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2011
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF WISCONSIN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO NERN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG SWLY
JET ON THE ERN FRINGE.
THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.
...UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES -- APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WITH TIME. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT -- AND INVOF THE SURFACE LOW/WRM FRONT ACROSS
SERN MN/ERN IA/SRN WI -- SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INITIATE BY 20-22Z.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 80-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL
PROVIDE SHEAR VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS -- AND THUS STORMS WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY INCREASE AND SPREAD QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...FUELED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY. GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO SRN WI/NRN
IL...NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
-- WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS
STORMS LIKELY BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED WITH TIME.
MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO
INTO NERN TX. WHILE TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORMS WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT -- BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...WHERE STRONGEST FORCING
-- AND THUS GREATEST CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION -- IS FORECAST.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
WHILE WEAKER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN NY/WRN
PA...AFTERNOON CONVECTION CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE AND CROSSING SRN
ONTARIO MAY CROSS THE LAKES AND BRING A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL TO THIS REGION. ANY THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.
..GOSS.. 04/09/2011
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
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Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Parents just can't catch a break...a couple rounds of hail and very heavy rain yesterday...and now today:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
144 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL ESTILL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
MENIFEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
POWELL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN WOLFE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
* UNTIL 215 PM EDT
* AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VIRDEN...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF STANTON...
AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BEAN...JEFFERSONVILLE...ROSSLYN...LUCKY
STOP...CAT CREEK...BOWEN...MEANS...CEDAR GROVES...LOMBARD...NADA...
CORNWELL...SLADE...FAGAN...ROTHWELL...HAYSTACK...TABOR...KOOMER
RIDGE CAMPGROUND AND RED RIVER GORGE.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
144 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL ESTILL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
MENIFEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
POWELL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN WOLFE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
* UNTIL 215 PM EDT
* AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VIRDEN...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF STANTON...
AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BEAN...JEFFERSONVILLE...ROSSLYN...LUCKY
STOP...CAT CREEK...BOWEN...MEANS...CEDAR GROVES...LOMBARD...NADA...
CORNWELL...SLADE...FAGAN...ROTHWELL...HAYSTACK...TABOR...KOOMER
RIDGE CAMPGROUND AND RED RIVER GORGE.
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-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Re: Re:
RL3AO wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Mom said they just got wind, and the electricity is out (she has dial up hooked up to a laptop, so she is still online).
Whats dial up?
haha...that is the only internet service they can get there!
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather April 9/10 Upper Midwest
Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
KYC063-153-165-175-237-091845-
/O.NEW.KJKL.TO.W.0016.110409T1805Z-110409T1845Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ELLIOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN MAGOFFIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
EASTERN MENIFEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
MORGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN WOLFE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
* UNTIL 245 PM EDT
* AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARIBA...OR NEAR FRENCHBURG...AND MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST LIBERTY...WELLINGTON...MAYTOWN...TOLIVER...KOREA...ARTVILLE...
DAN...BIG WOODS...EZEL...HAZEL GREEN...MURPHYFORK...EBON...
DAYSBORO...OMER...PEKIN...ARNETT...REXVILLE...KELLACEY...MIZE AND
HELECHAWA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3813 8314 3775 8312 3779 8363 3798 8363
3803 8347 3802 8346 3805 8343 3804 8340
3806 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 262DEG 44KT 3791 8352
$$
ABE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING
KYC063-153-165-175-237-091845-
/O.NEW.KJKL.TO.W.0016.110409T1805Z-110409T1845Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ELLIOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN MAGOFFIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
EASTERN MENIFEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
MORGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN WOLFE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
* UNTIL 245 PM EDT
* AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARIBA...OR NEAR FRENCHBURG...AND MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST LIBERTY...WELLINGTON...MAYTOWN...TOLIVER...KOREA...ARTVILLE...
DAN...BIG WOODS...EZEL...HAZEL GREEN...MURPHYFORK...EBON...
DAYSBORO...OMER...PEKIN...ARNETT...REXVILLE...KELLACEY...MIZE AND
HELECHAWA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3813 8314 3775 8312 3779 8363 3798 8363
3803 8347 3802 8346 3805 8343 3804 8340
3806 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 262DEG 44KT 3791 8352
$$
ABE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112 has been annulled and upgraded to Tornado Watch 113. Tornado threat increasing in the area. Probs are 60/30.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF BECKLEY
WEST VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 112. WATCH NUMBER 112 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 200 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET. WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
TORNADO THREAT HAS INCREASED AND WATCH 112 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
TORNADO WATCH.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...HALES
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF BECKLEY
WEST VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 112. WATCH NUMBER 112 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 200 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET. WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
TORNADO THREAT HAS INCREASED AND WATCH 112 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
TORNADO WATCH.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...HALES
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Look for a new watch soon. Not sure if it will be a Severe Thunderstorm or a Tornado Watch.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA THROUGH SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091734Z - 091900Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NERN GA INTO SC THIS AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
STRONG DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FROM
NERN GA INTO SC WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
AND 7-7.5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE CINH IS WEAKENING...AND
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY BECOME IMMINENT BY 18-19Z. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING WWD
THROUGH NERN SC AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN GA INTO
SWRN NC AND WRN SC...AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR TO
50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
..DIAL.. 04/09/2011
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 35268258 34598102 33108021 32818135 34748398 35268258
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA THROUGH SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091734Z - 091900Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NERN GA INTO SC THIS AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
STRONG DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FROM
NERN GA INTO SC WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
AND 7-7.5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE CINH IS WEAKENING...AND
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY BECOME IMMINENT BY 18-19Z. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING WWD
THROUGH NERN SC AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN GA INTO
SWRN NC AND WRN SC...AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR TO
50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
..DIAL.. 04/09/2011
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 35268258 34598102 33108021 32818135 34748398 35268258
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather April 9/10 Upper Midwest
Here are the different areas by counties that are under a Tornado Watch.
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
KYC013-019-025-043-051-063-065-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-127-
129-131-133-147-153-159-165-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-
235-237-100100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOYD BREATHITT
CARTER CLAY ELLIOTT
ESTILL FLOYD HARLAN
JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT
KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE
LEE LESLIE LETCHER
MAGOFFIN MARTIN MCCREARY
MENIFEE MORGAN OWSLEY
PERRY PIKE POWELL
PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN
WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
VAC021-027-035-051-071-077-105-155-167-169-173-185-191-195-197-
520-720-100100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAND BUCHANAN CARROLL
DICKENSON GILES GRAYSON
LEE PULASKI RUSSELL
SCOTT SMYTH TAZEWELL
WASHINGTON WISE WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NORTON
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NCC005-009-011-021-023-027-039-043-075-087-089-099-111-113-115-
121-149-161-173-175-189-193-199-100100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY
BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL
CHEROKEE CLAY GRAHAM
HAYWOOD HENDERSON JACKSON
MACON MADISON MCDOWELL
MITCHELL POLK RUTHERFORD
SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA WATAUGA
WILKES YANCEY
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
WVC005-011-019-025-039-043-045-047-055-059-063-079-081-089-099-
109-100100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CABELL FAYETTE
GREENBRIER KANAWHA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCDOWELL MERCER
MINGO MONROE PUTNAM
RALEIGH SUMMERS WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...RNK...MRX...GSP...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TNC001-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-073-089-091-
093-105-107-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-155-163-171-173-179-
100100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLOUNT BRADLEY
CAMPBELL CARTER CLAIBORNE
COCKE GRAINGER GREENE
HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK
HAWKINS JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LOUDON MCMINN
MEIGS MONROE MORGAN
POLK RHEA ROANE
SCOTT SEVIER SULLIVAN
UNICOI UNION WASHINGTON
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
KYC013-019-025-043-051-063-065-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-127-
129-131-133-147-153-159-165-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-
235-237-100100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOYD BREATHITT
CARTER CLAY ELLIOTT
ESTILL FLOYD HARLAN
JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT
KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE
LEE LESLIE LETCHER
MAGOFFIN MARTIN MCCREARY
MENIFEE MORGAN OWSLEY
PERRY PIKE POWELL
PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN
WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
VAC021-027-035-051-071-077-105-155-167-169-173-185-191-195-197-
520-720-100100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAND BUCHANAN CARROLL
DICKENSON GILES GRAYSON
LEE PULASKI RUSSELL
SCOTT SMYTH TAZEWELL
WASHINGTON WISE WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NORTON
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NCC005-009-011-021-023-027-039-043-075-087-089-099-111-113-115-
121-149-161-173-175-189-193-199-100100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY
BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL
CHEROKEE CLAY GRAHAM
HAYWOOD HENDERSON JACKSON
MACON MADISON MCDOWELL
MITCHELL POLK RUTHERFORD
SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA WATAUGA
WILKES YANCEY
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
WVC005-011-019-025-039-043-045-047-055-059-063-079-081-089-099-
109-100100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CABELL FAYETTE
GREENBRIER KANAWHA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCDOWELL MERCER
MINGO MONROE PUTNAM
RALEIGH SUMMERS WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...RNK...MRX...GSP...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011
TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TNC001-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-073-089-091-
093-105-107-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-155-163-171-173-179-
100100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLOUNT BRADLEY
CAMPBELL CARTER CLAIBORNE
COCKE GRAINGER GREENE
HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK
HAWKINS JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LOUDON MCMINN
MEIGS MONROE MORGAN
POLK RHEA ROANE
SCOTT SEVIER SULLIVAN
UNICOI UNION WASHINGTON
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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