Severe weather outbreak possible? November 7-9

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CrazyC83
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#21 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:49 pm

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CUMULUS STREETS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN DEEPENING THIS AFTN
AS WEAK ASCENT...TIED TO A LEAD MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EJECTS
ENE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AS PLENTIFUL LLVL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD BENEATH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES. NATURE OF ASCENT /WEAK-MODEST/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
LARGELY NORMAL TO INITIATING BOUNDARIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH
LINEAR AND DISCRETE CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. LLVL
SHEAR...WHILE SOMEWHAT MODEST AT MID-AFTN...WILL INCREASE AS PRIMARY
UPR TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE REGION AND LLVL
SELYS INCREASE. FAVORABLY MOIST AIR MASS AND INCREASING SRH WILL
INCREASE RISK FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...RACY
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#22 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:14 pm

Thunderstorms erupting along the OK-TX border. They're moving up into the most favorable environment.
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#23 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:15 pm

So far nothing tornadic, but that could change.
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#24 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:17 pm

You can see why they're blowing up. Look at that sharp front.

Image
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#25 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:25 pm

First Tornado Warning just went up for extreme SW Oklahoma.
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#26 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:29 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
225 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

OKC055-057-075-072100-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0078.000000T0000Z-111107T2100Z/
GREER OK-HARMON OK-KIOWA OK-
225 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA...CENTRAL HARMON AND GREER COUNTIES...

AT 225 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES EAST OF VINSON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BRINKMAN...VINSON AND WILLOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 9976 3491 9988 3511 9969 3511 9944
3512 9932 3510 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 223DEG 31KT 3490 9974

$$
WR
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#27 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:45 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072041Z - 072215Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
W-CNTRL/NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MATURE
NEAR AND N OF ABI ALONG A SUBTLE ZONE OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE. AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MLCAPE
VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT DEEP LAYER
W-SWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS MAY DEVELOP
INTO SUPERCELLS...POSING PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. BY LATE AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IS
FORECAST TO ENLARGE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR WAVE TO THE W. THIS WILL LEAD TO
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AOA 200 M2 S-2...WHICH MAY FAVOR A TORNADO OR
TWO.

..GARNER.. 11/07/2011


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31730060 32690083 33400029 33559917 33279825 32239863
31579957 31730060
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#28 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:11 pm

Andy Gabrielson has a live Tornado on the ground. Big stovepipe
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#29 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:12 pm

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#30 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:25 pm

Ben Holcomb on TornadoVideos has a big cone out in the field. Very nice Tornado
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Re: Severe weather outbreak possible? November 7-9

#31 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:38 pm

TORNADO WARNING
OKC031-075-141-072215-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0081.111107T2127Z-111107T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 327 PM CST...RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO NEAR
SNYDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MOUNTAIN PARK...SNYDER...
SOUTHEASTERN TOM STEED RESERVOIR AND WESTERN WICHITA MOUNTAINS
WILDLIFE REFUGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 9908 3469 9904 3470 9905 3505 9862
3481 9861 3454 9891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 219DEG 33KT 3467 9892

$$
WR
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#32 Postby Dave » Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:12 pm

COMANCHE OK-KIOWA OK-
411 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST FOR EASTERN
KIOWA AND NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES...

AT 411 PM CST...RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO OVER
EXTREME NORTHERN WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE...7 MILES NORTH OF
THE REFUGE HEADQUARTERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE NORTHERN WICHITA MOUNTAINS

WILDLIFE REFUGE.
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#33 Postby Dave » Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:15 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
414 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 414 PM CST...RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTH OF WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FORT COBB AND NORTHWESTERN WICHITA

MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE.
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#34 Postby Dave » Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:24 pm

For the warning above, 2 minutes old...

Image
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Re: Severe weather outbreak possible? November 7-9

#35 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:30 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
429 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

OKC015-075-072300-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0083.000000T0000Z-111107T2300Z/
CADDO OK-KIOWA OK-
429 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR EASTERN
KIOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTIES...

AT 430 PM CST...RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FORT COBB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FORT COBB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 9861 3493 9873 3507 9861 3515 9855
3509 9833
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 222DEG 28KT 3493 9861

$$
WR
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#36 Postby Dave » Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:30 pm

Same cell as before...

Image
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#37 Postby Dave » Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:46 pm

CADDO OK-
441 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR WESTERN
CADDO COUNTY...

AT 441 PM CST...RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO 12 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF FORT COBB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FORT COBB.

Image
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#38 Postby Dave » Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:53 pm

449 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR WESTERN

CADDO COUNTY...

AT 449 PM CST...RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO 7 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF FORT COBB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FORT COBB.
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#39 Postby Dave » Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:56 pm

Image
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#40 Postby Dave » Mon Nov 07, 2011 6:01 pm

This cell is under a severe thunderstorm warning...

CUSTER OK-KIOWA OK-WASHITA OK-
449 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST
FOR WASHITA...NORTHWESTERN KIOWA AND SOUTHERN CUSTER COUNTIES...
AT 450 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR DILL CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ARAPAHO...BESSIE...BURNS FLAT...
CLINTON...CLOUD CHIEF...CORDELL...CORN...DILL CITY...FOSS...
GOTEBO...HOBART...LONE WOLF...MOUNTAIN VIEW...ROCKY AND SENTINEL.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 48 AND 76.

Image
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