Tornado outbreak, at least 2 dead, January 22-23

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#21 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 22, 2012 2:37 pm

WWUS83 KPAH 221021
SPSPAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
421 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-222000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
421 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR REGION TODAY. WARM
MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE A MORE ISOLATED THREAT. THE STORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

TIMING: THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER AREA WIDE WILL
BE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM MONDAY MORNING.

LOCATION: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OR SPREAD
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FROM NEW MADRID UP THROUGH
CAPE GIRARDEAU. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANNA TO EDDYVILLE ILLINOIS
TO MARION AND CENTRAL CITY KENTUCKY. THIS INCLUDES EXTREME
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MOST OF WEST KENTUCKY. THE RISK OF
TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS...
TENNESSEE BORDERS.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE GREATER THREAT TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA OUTLINED ABOVE. WIND DAMAGE AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE AREA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

PREPARATION: INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER 50 MPH...SO THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TIME TO TAKE ACTION. REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY PLANS NOW...INCLUDING WHERE YOUR SAFE SHELTER IS LOCATED.
KNOW HOW YOU ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WARNINGS IF ONE IS ISSUED FOR
YOUR IMMEDIATE AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE MEANS OF RECEIVING THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT TIME
HOURS...YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SEE THE STORMS APPROACHING...SO
PLEASE HEED WARNINGS WHEN THEY ARE ISSUED FOR OR NEAR YOUR
LOCATION.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT VIA NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE NWS PADUCAH KY WEBSITE
OR FACEBOOK PAGE AND LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES.

$$

JP/CW
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#22 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:03 pm

2000Z: virtually unchanged
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#23 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:03 pm

Looks like the Radar is going to light up in a couple of hours...

Image
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK AREA INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA... AND THE EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI DELTA.
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? January 22-23

#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:05 pm

I think initiation is about 4 hours away.

SPC AC 221957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS
ERN AR...SERN MO...SRN PARTS OF IL/IND...WRN PARTS OF KY/TN...NRN
MS...NWRN AL AND FAR NERN LA......


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A LARGE PART OF THE OH
VALLEY TO ARKLATEX/CNTRL GULF COAST...

...FORECAST...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO TN
VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY. FORECAST REASONING GENERALLY REMAINS
UNCHANGED BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL/BROADER PERSPECTIVE.

LATEST HIGH-RES DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE /SUCH AS
EXPERIMENTAL SPC SSEO/ REFLECT THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY
TO INITIALLY DEVELOP TOWARD /AND ESPECIALLY AFTER/ THE 23Z-02Z TIME
FRAME WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A MIXED-MODE OF
SUPERCELLS AND FAST-MOVING QLCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS STORMS
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING IN
ACCORDANCE WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELD/AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..GUYER.. 01/22/2012
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#25 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:05 pm

A Tornado Watch (maybe PDS) will likely be needed around 5 pm at this rate.
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? January 22-23

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:07 pm

Updated graphic: No High Risk area.

Image
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#27 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:10 pm

Hoping for a bust.
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? January 22-23

#28 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:13 pm

Image
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#29 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:19 pm

The 17z Experimental HRR has the squall line right on Memphis, TN by 4z tonight....Its going to be interesting to see how this model verifies.

Image
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? January 22-23

#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:32 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 222026Z - 222230Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE
ARKLATEX THEN RACE NEWD TOWARD WRN TN/NWRN MS AFTER DARK. DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 00Z.

LEADING EDGE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS ERN
OK/NERN TX AND WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE...WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SPREAD INTO SRN/ERN
AR...AS NOTED BY SFC DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S INTO
THE 60S...WHILE A STUBBORN WEDGE OF COOLER AIR HAS YET TO BE
DISPLACED OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/NWRN AR. CURRENT THINKING IS GREATEST
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO THE S-E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEDGE FRONT AND THIS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING BAND OF LOW LEVEL CU ALONG
THE DRY LINE NEAR I-35 OVER NCNTRL TX. THIS IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND IS CERTAINLY INDICATIVE OF STRONGER
FORCING THAT WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX. WITH TIME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS LINE...OR PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR THE
LA BORDER AS EXHIBITED BY SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN FROM NEAR TYR
TO JUST WEST OF SHV. NEEDLESS TO SAY VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 01/22/2012


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33369442 34409266 36039130 35608952 33729030 32089160
31789398 33369442
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#31 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 22, 2012 4:16 pm

53 F 98% Humidity

Soupy for sure.
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#32 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 22, 2012 4:41 pm

A few small echoes starting to appear near the AR/MO/TN corners.
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? January 22-23

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 22, 2012 4:48 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
334 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
222345-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...
OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...
ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA...
VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...
MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...
STARKVILLE...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA...
LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...
BROOKSVILLE...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...
YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...
PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...VICKSBURG...
JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
334 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINES WITH ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT
TO OUR WEST BY EARLY EVENING THEN PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING AND PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF TIME
FOR OUR SERVICE AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 7 PM AND 4 AM. ALL SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS INCLUDES TORNADOES...SOME
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE. THE WORST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET...MAKING THIS EVENT MORE LIFE THREATENING. IN
ADDITION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY LEAVING LITTLE TIME
FOR VISUAL VERIFICATION OF IMPENDING STORMS.

NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN. DO NOT
WAIT FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED TO FIGURE OUT WHERE TO GO...KNOW IN
ADVANCE! KNOW WHERE YOUR SAFE SHELTER IS LOCATED AND HOW YOU ARE
GOING TO RECEIVE WARNINGS IF ONE IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IF YOU DO
NOT OWN A NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO...NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME
TO PURCHASE ONE. IF YOU OWN A NOAA WEATHER RADIO...MAKE SURE IT IS
TURNED ON AND HAS FRESH BATTERIES. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS
ISSUED...GET INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. BRING A
HELMET OR SOME PADDING TO PROTECT YOUR HEAD. DO NOT WAIT FOR VISUAL
CONFIRMATION OF A TORNADO AS THE COMBINATION OF DARKNESS AND VERY
FAST STORM MOTIONS WILL MAKE THIS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE.

LASTLY...BE SURE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS JACKSON FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ALSO...CHECK OUT OUR WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN OR
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK.

$$

CME
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#34 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 22, 2012 5:50 pm

WWUS83 KPAH 222212
SPSPAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-230600-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
412 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO BENTON ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE A MORE ISOLATED THREAT. THE STORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

TIMING: THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER AREA WIDE WILL BE
FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS MOVING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND EXIT EAST OF THE
PENNYRILE AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA AREA AROUND 3 AM MONDAY MORNING.

LOCATION: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OR SPREAD
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS THEN RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT AND EXIT THE EAST OF THE PENNYRILE AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AREA AROUND 3 AM MONDAY MORNING.

PREPARATION: INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER 50 MPH...SO THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TIME TO TAKE ACTION.
REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY PLANS NOW...INCLUDING WHERE YOUR SAFE SHELTER IS LOCATED.
KNOW HOW YOU ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WARNINGS IF ONE IS ISSUED FOR
YOUR IMMEDIATE AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE MEANS OF RECEIVING THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT VIA NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE NWS PADUCAH KY WEBSITE
OR FACEBOOK PAGE AND LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES.

$$
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#35 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:19 pm

WOUS64 KWNS 222314
WOU5

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

TORNADO WATCH 5 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-003-011-013-017-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-053-
055-063-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-119-121-
123-125-145-147-230600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0005.120122T2320Z-120123T0600Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLAY
CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER GRANT
GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH SALINE ST. FRANCIS
WHITE WOODRUFF


MOC069-155-230600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0005.120122T2320Z-120123T0600Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DUNKLIN PEMISCOT


MSC009-011-015-027-033-043-051-053-071-083-093-097-107-119-133-
135-137-143-151-161-230600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0005.120122T2320Z-120123T0600Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON BOLIVAR CARROLL
COAHOMA DESOTO GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA


TNC033-045-047-053-069-075-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-230600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0005.120122T2320Z-120123T0600Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HAYWOOD
LAKE LAUDERDALE MADISON
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
WEAKLEY


ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN...
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WeatherGuesser
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#36 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:24 pm

Above was the preliminary text only. This is the formatted one:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE
AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS.
VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE
MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON
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#37 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:27 pm

Image
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? January 22-23

#38 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:30 pm

No surprise that it is PDS. Probs are 90/60.
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#39 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:43 pm

Up 5 degrees in an hour and a half, after dark, in late January.

Now 58 F and 99%
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vbhoutex
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? January 22-23

#40 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:46 pm

Who is going to be available to post the severe tonight? Dave is not available due to this situation affecting his area also. I will be watching as best I can for warnings etc and post them as I find them.
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