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Ntxw wrote:Lots of blocking going on our side of the world in the higher latitudes. And given that it's June rich moisture is not very far off in the southern gulf. +PNA, -AO, and very -NAO spells a wet Texas.
weather_novice wrote:San Antonio has seen a relatively average summer so far when compared with 2011. Our hottest day has been 96 degrees--at this time last year we already had seen 14 days at or above 96degF with more than a few being over 100. Now that ENSO has neutral conditions and with the possibility of El Nino, this summer should be quite nice.
Portastorm wrote:The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center highly (no pun intended) endorse this afternoon's forecast discussion out of the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
303 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
12Z MODEL RUNS LOOKING DECISIVELY WETTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. APPEARS THE UPPER LOW/WEAKNESS OVER NE MEXICO WILL LIFT SLOWLY
ENEWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BRING ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW(POSSIBLY FROM AN
MCV) OVER NW TX...AND DROPPING THE LOW SLOWLY SWD INTO S CENTRAL
TX BY THE LATE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW WITH A BRIEF E-NELY WIND SHIFT BY THU AFTERNOON.
THIS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL GENERATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WED THRU AT LEAST FRI OR
EVEN SAT. COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AND WITH TEMPS
LIKELY NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE 80S ALL BUT THE WEST AND SW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE NRN/NERN CWA BY THU EVENING...COULD
SEE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR/UNDER THE UPPER LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS PATTERN AND MODELS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
GENERATE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO
REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY QPF POTENTIAL FOR THE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE DECREASING
POPS FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.
aggiecutter wrote:Was it as warm this spring as it seemed. Well, yes. Longview, Texarkana, Lufkin, and Shreveport Louisiana all recorded all-time record warm springs(March-May).
weatherdude1108 wrote:Does anyone know (or where I can find) Austin Mabry's long-term rainfall deficit since October 2010?
The local weather guys haven't mentioned it in a while. They pretty much stopped talking about it as soon as we were in good (better) shape agriculturally. We are in a hydrological deficit compared to last year at this time (lower lake levels than last year). However, inflows into the lakes are higher than last year so far. I know there is a lag time between when lakes start being affected by drought and when they recover to normal pool elevations.
Ntxw wrote:Global models are suggesting a period of torrential rainfall that's nearly stationary underneath the low core. This will be true especially overnight. Somebody may get some serious flooding. Thus far track of the low suggests somewhere starting in NW Texas near the falls southeastward. Not a large system but get underneath it and 4-6+ inches of rain in a relatively short period of time is not out of the question.
Texas Snowman wrote:Ntxw wrote:Global models are suggesting a period of torrential rainfall that's nearly stationary underneath the low core. This will be true especially overnight. Somebody may get some serious flooding. Thus far track of the low suggests somewhere starting in NW Texas near the falls southeastward. Not a large system but get underneath it and 4-6+ inches of rain in a relatively short period of time is not out of the question.
That would bring back memories of June and early July 2007 when the Texoma area and points westward got torrential rains. There was even a flash flooding death in Sherman that summer on a morning where storms continually trained over the city and dumped right at seven inches of rainfall.
So much rain fell over a three to four week period that Lake Texoma went over its spillway for only the third time in its history (it was impounded in 1944; normal elevation is 618 feet above sea level, spillway level is 640 feet). The other two previous times that the spillway was breeched were during the spring's wet season, so that 2007 summer event was really unprecedented.
Ntxw wrote:NAM is performing poorly. Euro has done well with initiation with a lot happening in Oklahoma. As the low progresses east/se the heaviest precip axis will be along the Red River valley bounded by I-20 to the south and I-40 to the north. Scattered storms with daytime heating elsewhere especially along an old boundary in the eastern half of the state. Euro is even pointing at good precip in the northeastern tip of Texas so for those that lost some hope there has something to look forward to!
Portastorm wrote:Ntxw wrote:NAM is performing poorly. Euro has done well with initiation with a lot happening in Oklahoma. As the low progresses east/se the heaviest precip axis will be along the Red River valley bounded by I-20 to the south and I-40 to the north. Scattered storms with daytime heating elsewhere especially along an old boundary in the eastern half of the state. Euro is even pointing at good precip in the northeastern tip of Texas so for those that lost some hope there has something to look forward to!
Where's aggiecutter? He's going to owe me for removing the Austin Omega Block from northeast Texas. My loss will be his gain!
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