SPC - MODERATE Risk, New England, Sat, 9/8

[CrazyC83]

People need to realize the Northeast is by no means immune to tornadoes!!!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...WRN CT/MA...NERN NJ

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 635...

VALID 081730Z - 081830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 635 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED WITHIN WW 635 AND
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
DISCRETE CELLS PERSISTING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E
ADVECTION REGIME WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN
CNTRL NY/PA. THE MOST PERSISTENT SUPERCELL IS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CT AS OF 1730Z...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
DURATION/VERTICALLY EXTENDING MESOCYCLONE. 0-1 KM SHEAR HAS
INCREASED IN THE UPTON NY VWP...NOW AROUND 25 KT...WHICH WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AMIDST A TROPICAL TYPE AIR MASS
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.

..GRAMS.. 09/08/2012


ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

LAT...LON 42197368 42457334 42437275 42177244 41507256 40827280
40487329 40627395 40967435 41537396 42197368

[CrazyC83]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LOWER MARYLAND
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MUCH OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
RICHMOND VIRGINIA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE NORTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635...WW
636...WW 637...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS
NC/VA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING E OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF
MIDLEVEL FLOW...WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27025.


...THOMPSON

[brunota2003]

Nothing here other than a couple wind gusts (around 25 mph) and some rain. Places further southwest of here (at least a good 50 miles away) reported trees and wires down, and marine observations recorded gusts in the 40s and 50s.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF GA...PARTS OF SRN/ERN AL...PORTIONS
OF THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081803Z - 082000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND
ANTICIPATION OF ONLY SPORADIC SVR WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL SHOULD
PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INDICATE
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OWING TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. LIFT INVOF THE COLD FRONT -- AIDED BY CROSS-FRONTAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING -- AND ALONG SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
BANDS/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL FOSTER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE
REGION RESIDING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF RELATIVELY STRONGER MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO...GIVEN GENERALLY AOB 25 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
DISORGANIZED...WITH SPORADIC INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS -- AIDED
BY PRECIP LOADING -- AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/08/2012


ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 33088195 31908211 30858337 30688650 31278753 31918764
32618670 33668510 34678381 34368298 33088195

[CrazyC83]

Nothing here other than a couple wind gusts (around 25 mph) and some rain. Places further southwest of here (at least a good 50 miles away) reported trees and wires down, and marine observations recorded gusts in the 40s and 50s.

I think the winds there were enhanced by terrain, i.e. off open lakes and rivers.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...MD...NRN VA/DE...DC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...

VALID 081812Z - 081945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING AS COLD FRONT MERGES WITH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND. EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWING STRUCTURES WILL
BE CAPABLE OF ENHANCED/SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WITH COVERAGE LIKELY
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY.

DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT FROM BRADFORD COUNTY PA TO HIGHLAND COUNTY
VA AS OF 18Z. THIS FRONT IS ABOUT TO MERGE WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. AS
THIS PROCESS OCCURS AMIDST A DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...THIS QLCS SHOULD
INTENSIFY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING/LEWP
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF WW 636 ON THE FRINGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SWLYS.

..GRAMS.. 09/08/2012


ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38917828 39427728 40307636 40937599 41237557 41267516
41147453 40687408 40067421 39137508 38387641 38367722
38397802 38577844 38917828

[brunota2003]

Nothing here other than a couple wind gusts (around 25 mph) and some rain. Places further southwest of here (at least a good 50 miles away) reported trees and wires down, and marine observations recorded gusts in the 40s and 50s.

I think the winds there were enhanced by terrain, i.e. off open lakes and rivers.

Possibly...just saw a couple damage reports about 10 miles south of here (near Watertown) saying trees and wires down, but that is about all.

EDIT:

Apparently, looking at Fort Drum's (KGTB) METAR (Note: They are located in an open area obviously, the air field), they did record gusts up to 37 mph with the line...which, for the record, is weaker than the gusts we were getting before that just from the SW winds ahead of the front (up to 43 mph).

Looks like Watertown's airport (KART) recorded gusts of up to 40 mph.

[CrazyC83]

Over 500,000 people live in the path...

WFUS51 KLWX 081944
TORLWX
VAC013-059-510-610-082015-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0039.120908T1944Z-120908T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CITY OF FALLS CHURCH IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
SOUTHERN ARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
EASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 343 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR FAIRFAX...
AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY
COUNTY OFFICIALS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEXANDRIA...
HUNTINGTON...
CRYSTAL CITY...
BALLSTON...
THE WOODROW WILSON BRIDGE...
REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT...EITHER PARK AND STAY IN YOUR VEHICLE...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LAY FLAT IN A LOW SPOT.

THIS TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 7704 3882 7724 3888 7722 3889 7721
3890 7707 3888 7705 3886 7703 3879 7703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 283DEG 43KT 3885 7718

$$

GMS

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 635...637...

VALID 081955Z - 082100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 635...637...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW
635/637 IN SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...QLCS HAS ACCELERATED IN FORWARD SPEED TO AROUND 40 KT
WHICH WOULD EXTRAPOLATE THE LEADING EDGE TOWARDS THE NH BORDER NEAR
2130Z. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TO THE EAST
THAN THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...DEW POINTS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED
IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND IS LIKELY YIELDING WEAK BUOYANCY
PER MODIFIED 18Z OKX/ALB RAOBS. LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE FOR SUSTENANCE OF THE QLCS AND PRE-FRONTAL
WEAK/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. THIS SETUP SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO.

..GRAMS.. 09/08/2012


ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 42847056 41787098 41387180 41377285 42047395 43367375
44147361 44877315 45217187 45157059 44416996 44016998
42847056

[WeatherGuesser]

A second confirmed tornado touched down in Brooklyn, another New York City borough, around 11:30 a.m., according to the weather service. This twister was about 50 yards wide as it traveled a half mile in Canarsie, about 9 miles north of the other reported tornado.

No one was killed or injured as a result of the Brooklyn tornado, which had 110 mph winds -- meaning it is categorized as a strong EF1

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/08/us/northe ... index.html

[Nicko999]

I waked up due to the loud thunderstorms early this morning (at about 7AM).

As for today, I reported heavy rain and heavy wind gusting to about 50 mph.

Good storm but I've seen better.