Texas Fall-2014

[Portastorm]

Was thinking today how much I miss thunderstorms. Seems like they happened a lot back in the 80s. For Austin, that is. In the last five years, seriously, I bet we've had less than two dozen.

[JDawg512]

I have a question, So I usually have very bad allergies, but the Summer is usually the only time I don't have them, and in the past 2 weeks I've had a Sinus and Ear infection, which I don't usually get until winter or early spring. I can usually go through the whole fall with out getting sick. Is this just a coincidence or is is a possible sign for an early Fall and or Winter?

I think it depends on what allergies you have. For me its ragweed (if higher than usual) in fall and mountain cedar (nasty vermins!) In winter. Ive struggled a few times past couple of weeks to ragweed.

EURO has some chilly air over North America in the long range with deep mid continent trof

I have too many to count, but most of them usually only occur in late fall-winter and sometimes Spring, I rarely get sick once in the Summer much less 3 times. (I also got sick in July)

Ragweed is my biggest enemy, I've been miserable. It is possible for you to develop an allergy to things you were not allergic to before. I was not allergic to ragweed until about 7 years ago. Now it's the worst of all my allergies.

[dhweather]

Was thinking today how much I miss thunderstorms. Seems like they happened a lot back in the 80s. For Austin, that is. In the last five years, seriously, I bet we've had less than two dozen.

Huh? It actually rained regularly in Texas at some point in time?

[dhweather]

I have a question, So I usually have very bad allergies, but the Summer is usually the only time I don't have them, and in the past 2 weeks I've had a Sinus and Ear infection, which I don't usually get until winter or early spring. I can usually go through the whole fall with out getting sick. Is this just a coincidence or is is a possible sign for an early Fall and or Winter?

I don't think so. It's ragweed season, cedar season, and just overall not good for allergies season.

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD, sums it up well:

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY FRIDAY...BUT STILL
THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

[Ntxw]

As in my post earlier today, the EURO and other longterm guidance looks a little better today. Still within the 7 day period not much but 7-10 there is a massing (seasonal shift) of colder air pooling in NA (Hello there MR -EPO). Some kind of front will likely make it down here next week. With 93E in the EPAC getting it's act together (should be in the Baja vicinity) we have a tropical connection. Will need to wait a few more days to see if the two features interact and fine tune.

[Tireman4]

As in my post earlier today, the EURO and other longterm guidance looks a little better today. Still within the 7 day period not much but 7-10 there is a massing (seasonal shift) of colder air pooling in NA (Hello there MR -EPO). Some kind of front will likely make it down here next week. With 93E in the EPAC getting it's act together (should be in the Baja vicinity) we have a tropical connection. Will need to wait a few more days to see if the two features interact and fine tune.

Ok, you have me intrigued. Will it make it to Houston?

[Ntxw]

Ok, you have me intrigued. Will it make it to Houston?

I can't say for sure yet, it's beyond reasonable time frame. What I can point is that this air mass is currently sitting in Alaska and just above. If you have access to detailed EURO you can see the anomalous below normal temperatures barrel down the eastern side of the Rockies (Greatly modified) of course and looks substantial as a front. Of course when it's nearing Texas you leave truncation, the run ends. It's been doing this for several runs. But regardless something like that usually features a good front. Occuring as 93E/Norbert to be is re curving in from the Baja.

Keep your hopes alive

[weatherdude1108]

Was thinking today how much I miss thunderstorms. Seems like they happened a lot back in the 80s. For Austin, that is. In the last five years, seriously, I bet we've had less than two dozen.

Me too! I remember growing up in the 80s in San Antonio (down the street) seeing storms with regularity in Spring and Fall (once every week or so), dumping an inch or so of rain at a time. Now it seems like the storms come once every couple weeks (if we're lucky), usually a month or so in between. When it does rain, it seems like it comes down several inches of rain all at once, with the majority running off. Then it is dry for two months with maybe a trace of rain in between.

I don't know if the PDO has any correlation with the pattern back then compared to now(?). I'd like to think the pattern of regular storms will get back to how it used to be back in the day. It bums me out to think about it. But like Ntxw mentioned, we have to keep our hopes alive!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Was thinking today how much I miss thunderstorms. Seems like they happened a lot back in the 80s. For Austin, that is. In the last five years, seriously, I bet we've had less than two dozen.

From a DFW perspective, it seems like it's been a few years that we've been on a watch for a tornado outbreak. While we had some activity earlier in the year, they weren't really tied into a widespread outbreak type of event.

[Ntxw]

I don't know if the PDO has any correlation with the pattern back then compared to now(?). I'd like to think the pattern of regular storms will get back to how it used to be back in the day. It bums me out to think about it. But like Ntxw mentioned, we have to keep our hopes alive!

The 80s were predominately +PDO as was early 90s. Longest stretch of it since the 40s. Very wet times when you are in those decadal stretches of +PDO, evident by the two back to back El Nino's (haven't one a couplet since). The East Pacific Oscillation was also predominately negative, thus the many cold winters.

[cheezyWXguy]

Was thinking today how much I miss thunderstorms. Seems like they happened a lot back in the 80s. For Austin, that is. In the last five years, seriously, I bet we've had less than two dozen.

From a DFW perspective, it seems like it's been a few years that we've been on a watch for a tornado outbreak. While we had some activity earlier in the year, they weren't really tied into a widespread outbreak type of event.

I disagree. This year has been quiet, but last year featured an EF4 near Granbury if I remember correctly, and the previous year featured a mini-outbreak with tornadoes in Arlington, Forney and a few other places.

[weatherdude1108]

I got two tenths of an inch of rain around 5:45pm this afternoon. First rain in a week. Got a half inch last week.

Went from 96 to 86. Now it is 80 at 8:30pm. Hope we get a repeat tomorrow.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't know if the PDO has any correlation with the pattern back then compared to now(?). I'd like to think the pattern of regular storms will get back to how it used to be back in the day. It bums me out to think about it. But like Ntxw mentioned, we have to keep our hopes alive!

The 80s were predominately +PDO as was early 90s. Longest stretch of it since the 40s. Very wet times when you are in those decadal stretches of +PDO, evident by the two back to back El Nino's (haven't one a couplet since). The East Pacific Oscillation was also predominately negative, thus the many cold winters.

Warm PDO was from 1976 to 1998. Warm PDO is wet for Texas. Droughts can happen in warm PDO, but they are short lived compared to cool PDO. Also, a cool AMO is a factor, which happened in the 1980s and early 1990s.

[Rgv20]

So far this morning have gotten just over an inch of rain courtesy of Dolly!

[Tireman4]

So far this morning have gotten just over an inch of rain courtesy of Dolly!

Hello Dolly?

[Portastorm]

I got two tenths of an inch of rain around 5:45pm this afternoon. First rain in a week. Got a half inch last week.

Went from 96 to 86. Now it is 80 at 8:30pm. Hope we get a repeat tomorrow.

The Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County actually lucked out yesterday and picked up close to that amount of rain. Had a strong little cell develop and move right over us. I am grateful.

[South Texas Storms]

A few waves of rain will likely be moving across south central Texas this afternoon. The yellow outlined area has the best chance of rain where some lucky areas could see over 1 inch of rain today.

[opticsguy]

Are you guys seeing the GFS 10 days out? Mid-30's to high 20s from Des Moines northward. Considering how late the planting was this year, it could ruin what would have been a record year. When I was in WI in late July there was lots of corn only knee high.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, our local NWS office (Austin/San Antonio) referenced that 12z GFS run in its afternoon forecast discussion. It would drop our lows here in south central Texas into the 60s with high temps just above 80. That would quite a front by our standards for mid September. We usually see fronts like that late in the month or early October. Will be interested to see how it all plays out.