Texas Spring-2015

[gboudx]

Another update from jeff:

Core of heavy rainfall training from Victoria to College Station…flooding and flash flooding likely to develop.

Main lift from incoming upper level storm system starting to spread into SE TX with expansion of heavy rainfall across Wharton, Colorado, Austin, Washington, and Grimes Counties. This rainfall is only very slowly spreading eastward while training to the NNE at 15-25mph. Storm totals over the last 36 hours are nearly 3.5-4.5 inches over northern Colorado and NW Austin Counties with a large area of 2.0-2.5 inches along and north of US 59.

Grounds are saturated and run-off is being generated into area watersheds. Main stem rivers are starting to show responses…especially the West fork of the San Jacinto River, the upper headwaters of the San Bernard River, and several of the smaller creeks which feed the main channels.

An additional 1-3 inches of rainfall on top of what has already fallen is likely this afternoon and evening resulting in increasing run-off and flooding potential.

Note:

A Flood Warning has been issued for the San Bernard River at East Bernard and Boling. Heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches over the headwaters of the river will result in a rise to near/above flood stage on Wednesday. Additional rainfall this afternoon/evening will likely alter this forecast at both points and a higher crest than currently indicated is possible.

Several other watersheds including the Tres Palacios River, West Mustang Creek, Davidson Creek, and the West Fork of the San Jacinto River are being closely monitored.

Additional heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening will likely alter current watershed response and forecasts.

[Shoshana]

We've had 2"+

My PWS says 2.3" but I have been waiting for a warm day to calibrate it. The physical rain gauges look close to or above 2.5" (from the porch looking at them across the yard) and it's still raining

And still raining. A nice steady rain. We're on a slope and not in a flood plain so we're enjoying the steady rain. No thunder freak out the dog, no ice, just a nice rain with runoff.

The one in the middle of the yard ... close to 3"



The one closer to the house: ... a little harder to read because of the angle ...



Hope everyone who is getting rain is enjoying it! The flowers sure are happy.

[weatherdude1108]

Awesome!

[weatherdude1108]

I just saw the Hydrologic Outlook (SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS). I figure it would fit in the Texas Spring thread.

Basically, low risk for flooding through May based on overall slightly dry to near normal soil moisture and low reservoir levels because of long-term drought impacts. Short-term impacts in the soils have been alleviated, especially today!


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Shoshana]

I just saw the Hydrologic Outlook (SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS). I figure it would fit in the Texas Spring thread.

Basically, low risk for flooding through May based on overall slightly dry to near normal soil moisture and low reservoir levels because of long-term drought impacts. Short-term impacts in the soils have been alleviated, especially today!


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Nice! I'm thinking the bluebonnets are going to be really popping this year!

[wxman57]

Good thing we can't trust the long-range GFS panels. The strong westerly wind burst over the Pacific may eventually lead to a blocking ridge over Alaska, driving more cold air south into the U.S. in 10-14 days.

[weatherdude1108]

I just saw the Hydrologic Outlook (SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS). I figure it would fit in the Texas Spring thread.

Basically, low risk for flooding through May based on overall slightly dry to near normal soil moisture and low reservoir levels because of long-term drought impacts. Short-term impacts in the soils have been alleviated, especially today!


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Nice! I'm thinking the bluebonnets are going to be really popping this year!

Oh yeah! I would think the bluebonnets would start to show in the next few weeks. I think they need a wet fall, which we had. Not sure what else they need to put on a show.

[Portastorm]

Ended up getting another .75" of rain since my last post ... storm totals for my area of 2.45" Looks like the models did a good job of handling this event as rainfall totals across the Austin metro area are 2-3" generally.

Let's hope this becomes somewhat of a regular occurrence.

[ndale]

Thanks Porta for letting me know this thread is open, as I posted in the winter thread, we got 4.7 inches of rain since last night.

[Shoshana]

I just saw the Hydrologic Outlook (SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS). I figure it would fit in the Texas Spring thread.

Basically, low risk for flooding through May based on overall slightly dry to near normal soil moisture and low reservoir levels because of long-term drought impacts. Short-term impacts in the soils have been alleviated, especially today!


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Nice! I'm thinking the bluebonnets are going to be really popping this year!

Oh yeah! I would think the bluebonnets would start to show in the next few weeks. I think they need a wet fall, which we had. Not sure what else they need to put on a show.

As far as I know, they need 3 hard freezes and a wet winter. But not a wet spring, the weeds grow and we can't see the bluebonnets

[Shoshana]

Thanks Porta for letting me know this thread is open, as I posted in the winter thread, we got 4.7 inches of rain since last night.

Wow. We got 3"

[weatherdude1108]

3.8 inches over past couple weeks. 3 of those inches are from this event.

Our trash can had water in it from being open after trash pickup today. I poured the water slowly out on the lawn. It literally ran off the lawn onto the driveway. Can't take any more water right now.

[wxman57]

2.97" at my house in SW Houston. Redbuds and dogwoods are in full bloom (you can identify a dogwood by its bark). Trees are leafing out. Spring has sprung.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Three inches of wonderful rain at mi casa in Northwest Corpus. I only wish I was able to do my spring planting before it all came down.

Bring on the heat and humidity!

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is indicating temps 10-15 degrees below normal across Texas in 8-10 days (next Thu/Fri). That would be upper 30s in the D-FW area and mid 40s in Houston. Highs around 60 in Houston & 55 in D-FW area. Nothing too extreme. Decent rain for NE & SE TX next Wed/Thu as well. Not much for central TX, Portastorm. Mostly east of D-FW, too.

[weatherdude1108]

12Z GFS is indicating temps 10-15 degrees below normal across Texas in 8-10 days (next Thu/Fri). That would be upper 30s in the D-FW area and mid 40s in Houston. Highs around 60 in Houston & 55 in D-FW area. Nothing too extreme. Decent rain for NE & SE TX next Wed/Thu as well. Not much for central TX, Portastorm. Mostly east of D-FW, too.

Looks like the 22nd and 24th look more promising for rain in Central Texas. But we all know how accurate the long-range GFS is.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

12Z GFS is indicating temps 10-15 degrees below normal across Texas in 8-10 days (next Thu/Fri). That would be upper 30s in the D-FW area and mid 40s in Houston. Highs around 60 in Houston & 55 in D-FW area. Nothing too extreme. Decent rain for NE & SE TX next Wed/Thu as well. Not much for central TX, Portastorm. Mostly east of D-FW, too.

You have to try to stop it. We need it hot now!

[Lagreeneyes03]

12Z GFS is indicating temps 10-15 degrees below normal across Texas in 8-10 days (next Thu/Fri). That would be upper 30s in the D-FW area and mid 40s in Houston. Highs around 60 in Houston & 55 in D-FW area. Nothing too extreme. Decent rain for NE & SE TX next Wed/Thu as well. Not much for central TX, Portastorm. Mostly east of D-FW, too.

You have to try to stop it. We need it hot now!

Amen. Make it stop!! This is downright depressing.

[dhweather]

RAIN, I WANT MORE RAIN!!! The soil at the surface is saturated, thus rain runs off into the LAKES.

Promptly, it looks pretty dry for the next week. BOOOOOO!!!

[weatherdude1108]

RAIN, I WANT MORE RAIN!!! The soil at the surface is saturated, thus rain runs off into the LAKES.

Promptly, it looks pretty dry for the next week. BOOOOOO!!!

I echo that! We are completely saturated here. But we need this kind of rain about three times a week to run off into the watersheds. Once the vegetation sprouts, that will transpire more of it out of ground. So now is prime time runoff season.