Texas Summer 2016

[jasons2k]

Yes, the warm core lows have indeed brought some of our biggest rain totals. They have also created some of the most prolific flash flooding events in the hill country and highland lake system as well. We need to watch this very closely all across the state.

[Cuda17]

This sure paints a bleak picture for our area...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 010956
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
456 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Southeastern Texas is readying itself for another few days of
precipitation brought on by periods of locally moderate to heavy
rainfall that will likely induce or aggravate regional flash and
river flooding. All of the synoptic ingredients are in place, from
the gradual spreading of the upper levels as jet level winds become
more diffulent just ahead of the southwestern-settling mid to upper
low to the stout lower to mid level southeasterly 20-35 knot inflow
feeding inland convection with near 2 inch precipitable waters.
The devil is in the details as they say and this couldn`t be more
true of a idiom than for us over the next several days. Yes,
confidence is mounting that many across the region will experience
a round or three of impressive rainfall (rates) that will again
produce flooding and quite possibly various communities will be
dealing with wind damage from either localized wet downbursts or
weak tornadoes from passing strong thunderstorm clusters. As is
the case with all of these anticipated potential severe weather
events...the question of the exact timing and location of the most
intense weather will go unanswered until either right before its
passage or during the heat of battle itself. Although the vicinity
(unfortunately southwestern-positioned) upper low and subsequent
shortwave disturbances rotating around this main feature will
ultimately be the impetus to inclement weather, it will be the
mesoscale that determines the when and the where of the most
severe rainfall and wind. Or, in other words, it will be that
prior convection that drives future convective behavior and, if we
can better pinpoint this on a 6 hour time line, then we may be
able to more accurately convey a relatively higher confidence with
a 12,or even 24, hour forecast.

The target days for the highest rainfall will be from as early as
today through as late as Saturday afternoon. This is the period in
which the upper low currently digging down over the lower U.S.
Southwest and the northern Mexico Providences of Sonora and
Chihuahua will nestle itself over Texas, particularly over eastern
or south central state. With the highly moist `condition`ally
unstable air mass already in place over the region, this scenario
is the worse possible for us as it places eastern Texas under the
best upper exhaust pattern for series of disturbances (the `conditional`)
to generate lift and maintain an environment conducive to the
formation of continual clusters of thunderstorms to slowly travel
(train) over the area. Not expecting overall storm motion to be
all that fast within a forecast weakly steered lower layer. As of
now, the forecast calls for likely rain/storm chances commencing
today and persisting through the weekend. There will be periods of
either very light or no precipitation, especially if an MCS travels
across the CWA and creates subsidence in its wake. A model and
national center blend equates to an areawide 5 day QPF of between
4 to 5 inches, locally higher with amounts of greater than 10
inches certainly not out of the question. Of course, it will be
those 1 inch amounts over 15 minutes across more urbanized landscapes
that will be of the highest threat versus double digit rainfall
over a span of several days.

On a major side note...the city (IAH) has not yet recorded a 90F
degree day this year. If this forecast pans out and overcast with
rainfall plagues the region through the weekend, then the city
would likely not meet 90F for the remainder of the week. This
would place 2016 in the Top 5 if 90F was not met by Sunday (the
latest day was on June 15th, 1897). 31

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

***Significant flash flood and river flood threat across TX***

***Potentially dangerous flash flood event for TX next several days***

Hydro situation across this state is dire and additional potentially excessive rainfall is going to push area river systems and lakes to beyond their breaking point. The systems are just overloaded and given what has transpired this afternoon across the Hill Country (4-6 inches of rainfall) flooding is almost ineveitable across this state over the next 5 days.

I am extremely concerned with the potential of this system to drop copious rainfall leading to devastating flooding.

Discussion:
Upper level system will move into TX on Wednesday and park over the state for the next 5 days. Very high tropical moisture levels will surround this upper level feature and there is the increasing potential for this system to begin to take on tropical warm core charateristics which is deeply concerning. Such slow moving systems in the past across this state in the warm season summer months have produced devastating flood events even with dry conditions before onset. Warm core systems generally like to focus extreme rainfall near their circulation cores during the overnight hours and these rains can be extraordinary…TS Allison…TS Charley…TS Frances. Such systems have produced some of the greatest floods this state has ever experienced.

Expect numerous rounds of thunderstorms to onset by Wednesday afternoon. Storm motions really begin to slow down into Wednesday night through Friday with less than 20kts of forward motion. 850mb inflow of 20-30kts is really favorable for providing a rich low level flow of moisture…combine that with strong and near continuous upper level divergence and you have another classic flash flood setup over this state.

Will go with widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches through Friday…but am almost certain there is going to be significantly higher amounts. Confidence is poor to where these large totals may occur…but right now will favor areas W of I-45 and N of I-10, or the area that has been devastated over the last 6 weeks with flooding. This also highly impacts the Brazos and Colorado basins which are already dealing with devastating flooding. Think storm totals of 10-15 inches are certainly possible in isolated locations especially over our western counties into central TX. Where such rainfall occurs on already very saturated grounds will result in catastrophic flooding. There is just no skill at this range of predicting where these really big totals may occur.

Residents across the entire region should be prepared for significant flash flooding and watershed flooding over the next 5 days. React immediately to rising water and expect flooded roadways. Never drive into high water…let me say this again NEVER DRIVE INTO HIGH WATER!!!

Brazos River:

Brazos River has risen past the expected forecast today of 53.5 ft and is currently at 54.3 ft this evening and still rising which is smashing the old 1994 record. Flooding across Fort Bend into Brazoria County is devastating. Water is against all the levees in Fort Bend County and back water flooding is starting to cut-off some subdivisions. Large sections of Fort Bend County are flooded with water in parts of Rosenberg and Valley Lodge many feet deep in homes. The river is across the basin divide into Oyster Creek. This situation is Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties moving forward is dire with additional heavy rainfall forecast. Levee protected subdivisions will have to pump additional rainfall as gravity flow into the river is not possible at this time due to the very high levels which could lead to flooding within these subdivisions if rainfall rates exceed to pumping capabilities.

[Ntxw]

Meteorological summer is here. For some it is the best time of the year, for others the worst. Signs point to manageable for the haters and low standards for the lovers. . Discuss all things summer and try to poke our heat miser if you dare...

[WacoWx]

Is it possible that the atmosphere here in DFW will not "reload" after yesterdays storms? We have a thick overcast here currently with no sun peeking through, which I assume will not allow the environment to destabilize. Is there any truth to this assumption? Is there enough fuel to begin the storm generation process again without sunshine?

I'm just trying to poke some holes in all of the "perfect storm" scenarios I keep reading about.

[Ntxw]

Is it possible that the atmosphere here in DFW will not "reload" after yesterdays storms? We have a thick overcast here currently with no sun peeking through, which I assume will not allow the environment to destabilize. Is there any truth to this assumption? Is there enough fuel to begin the storm generation process again without sunshine?

I'm just trying to poke some holes in all of the "perfect storm" scenarios I keep reading about.

With this system going warm core as it sits and stalls the process isnt the same as an outbreak of thunderstorms. It is more tropical in nature as in a tropical storm. As lift and dynamics is present showers and heavy rain in bands will occur. Things happen much more slowly over time.

[1900hurricane]

I'm thinking the main threat for a warm core event across central Texas won't be maximized until Thursday night/Friday morning or Friday night/Saturday morning (depending on the speed of the low aloft). Warm core events thrive off of moist inflow, and this is maximized when environmental pressures rise overnight, increasing gradients and strengthening low level jet response. Tonight, the low will still be pretty far out in west Texas, but it should be much closer to or pretty much over central Texas the next two nights. Until then, most of the rainfall will come in the form of messy clusters driven mostly by daily heating.

With that said, impending low level inflow will go a long way towards staving off any monumental totals. We saw this to some extent with Tropical Storm Bill last year. During the first night that Bill was inland, one of the rainbands hogged the inflow just offshore. CRP dual-pol estimates had as much as 36" of rain falling in that stalled offshore band, but areas just inland saw comparatively small amounts. If there is a coastal MCS one or both of the nights, it would probably help keep the totals down in a very similar fashion.

[Tireman4]

What that being said...it begins...


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx

[1900hurricane]

Clear MCV in The Panhandle a little NW of Lubbock. PWs, Reflectivities, and KDPs aren't all that high with it, but it certainly is focusing precipitation and not moving very fast. This is an example of a feature that would need to be watched.

[Cuda17]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 012014
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
314 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms across the area with temperatures in the
mid 80s. Storms are slow moving with heavy rain threat across
areas mainly north of a Bellville to Livingston line. These storms
continue to expand and shift northward this afternoon. Will need
to watch for the western end of the line slowing late this
afternoon and evening and possibly becoming anchored as storms
develop to the west - maintaining the light low level inflow
nearly perpendicular to the slow moving boundary then increasing
moisture transport over the boundary toward morning.

Overnight expect an MCS to form over the EWX region and track
southeast and east probably moving into the region after 3 am and
as late as 9 am. Storms may still be percolating along the
remnant boundary in the north as well. PW values slowly climbing
and Thursday morning may be close to the 1.9-2.0" value with
increasing low level south to southeast flow. Upper jet aimed into
South Texas but with a diffluent pattern over SETX with favorable
divergence. This should lead to active weather in the morning
mainly across the southern half of the region shifting slowly
inland during the afternoon. Very heavy rainfall will be possible
Thursday and may have the potential for slow moving clusters or
bands of storms. Given the high PW and motion - localized
rainfall of 4-8 inches will be a good bet...some isolated amounts
may exceed this but pinpointing where is difficult with mesoscale
features taking over Thursday morning. The upper low slows over
Central TX Thursday night/Friday and will have the potential for a
heavy rain event focused closer to the center possibly extending
into the western areas of SETX. Heavy rain threat continues
Friday with upper shear axis eventually becoming SW to NE through
the region Friday night/Saturday morning. Friday afternoon a
weakening cold front oozes its way into the area and probably
stalls close to the coast. The heavy rain threat may begin to
decrease Saturday. At some point the drier air aloft may help
nudge the active weather into the Gulf but for now will keep rain
chances going through the weekend out through Tuesday. Second push
of dry air aloft will nose down into the area Tuesday/Wednesday
and rain chances should start to taper off.

.Hydrology...
Lower Brazos still undergoing extensive major to record flooding
and areas near Richmond down past Rosharon will see flooding
continue to worsen. Additional heavy rainfall will aggravate the
ongoing flooding. Moderate to major flooding on lower San Bernard
and Colorado rivers...this area too will be under the gun for
heavy rainfall totals in the coming days.
45

[1900hurricane]

Looks like another storm has stalled out over the Harris/Montgomery County line. Radar is showing some totals in excess of 5" already, which is being verified by gauging sites.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

See it now, had no idea. Not going anywhere for a bit either. This seems to be our main threat for the next couple days

[TheProfessor]

Boy that was some loud rain that just fell here.

[weatherdude1108]

Loud thunder this morning here, along with heavy rain. LCRA is ramping up their floodgate operations.


Summary Last Update: Jun 2 2016 7:53AM
BASED ON CONDITIONS AT TIME OF LAST UPDATE:

Forecasts and operational plans are expected to continue changing today along the Highland Lakes at Buchanan, Inks, Wirtz, Starcke, Mansfield and Tom Miller dams in response to ongoing rain.

Additional gate operations are likely at the 16-gate section of Buchanan Dam this morning in response to ongoing rainfall directly on Lake Buchanan and surrounding areas. Residents should take protective actions now.

The level of Inks Lake, and the amount of flow over the spillway, is likely to increase today in response to local rainfall over Inks Lake and the surrounding areas, or if gate operations become necessary at Buchanan Dam.

Inflows to lakes LBJ and Marble Falls are increasing in response to ongoing rains over the contributing watershed. Additional floodgate operations are possible today at Wirtz and Starcke dams.

The forecast for Lake Travis is expected to go up today in response to ongoing rainfall over the Highland Lakes watershed.

LCRA is closely monitoring ongoing rainfall and river conditions in the lower basin.

Partial lake closures -- LCRA has temporarily closed portions of lakes LBJ and Marble Falls to recreational boating.

The closure includes: Lake LBJ from Lighthouse Drive to Wirtz Dam. Lake Marble Falls from the Highway 281 bridge to Starcke Dam.

Flows near the dams will be exceptionally strong because of flooding rains and ongoing floodgate operations, creating hazardous conditions for boaters. The partial lake closures will remain in effect until further notice.

Flows in the Highland Lakes are strong and swift following recent rains and ongoing releases from floodgates at dams along the lakes. Anyone on or near the water should use extreme caution. People should stay away from dams on the Highland Lakes during floodgate operations.

The ground in the lower Colorado River basin is saturated, and additional rainfall in the Highland Lakes watershed could cause levels in the Highland Lakes to rise quickly. Additional releases from the Highland Lakes dams may be necessary with very little warning to safely move floodwaters downstream.

Boaters, swimmers and residents on smaller lakes such as Inks Lake and Lake Marble Falls should pay special attention to lake conditions and swift flows. Water is now flowing several feet over the spillway at Inks Dam, which does not have any floodgates, and flows immediately downstream of the dam on the upper end of Lake LBJ will be particularly swift.

http://floodstatus.lcra.org/

Medina Lake is also FULL. It had been less than 10% capacity for so long, people were wondering if it would ever recover.

Medina Lake is 100.0% full as of 2016-06-02

http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reserv ... ual/medina

[weatherdude1108]

I'm going to be in the DFW area next Tuesday/Wednesday (June 7th and 8th) for work. Looks like nice weather!

Dallas, TX
Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 88.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 89.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So this long line of storms that is moving towards/off the coast is currently blocking any inflow. If this line dissipates, will this lead to another line forming around the Low? Am i doing it right? Everyone stat safe out there.

[ravyrn]

Is the Brazos river expected to flood near Marlin? Anyone have a link to the forecast?

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021540
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1040 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.UPDATE...
In the short term - great news with clearing expanding across the
area. Line of prolific rain from near CLL to CXO to HOU to LBX
continues to shift eastward as upper s/w tracks through to the
east. Intense rain rates of 2+" per hour will continue for at
least a couple more hours over the eastern areas where ll moisture
transport is maximized ahead of the line. Gusty winds of 30+ mph
will accompany the stronger storms. By early afternoon a large
part of the area should be rainfree (except for the northern and
eastern areas) at least for a few hours. Next s/w can be seen on
water vapor tracking into DRT area and lift from this should
arrive around 21-23 mainly across the southwestern areas (where
coincidently the greatest heating/destabilization will have
occurred. Have lowered pops substantially in the west through 21z
then ramp them back up and will keep the with the previous
forecasts trend of high pops and qpf across the southern areas.
45

[1900hurricane]

The two biggest areas of concern I see right now are in the comma head over north central Texas and in the band slowly rotating east to the east of Houston. Both those areas have the best surface convergence and deeper moist convergence.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like a second line is trying to form starting in SW Houston.