VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEVERE WX OUTBREAK THIS WEEKEND.

[weatherwunder]

I wont be going anywhere without my weather radio, and just check the home weather alert to be sure it is working.

Gonna be a long day.

Dew Points at 62 already in Lincoln.

[Brent]

I don't think I've ever seen the SPC list major cities in the risk area either. Anyone have archived stuff from April 8, 1998, May 3, 1999 or other days when there were F4 and F5's?

[Guest]

I don't think I've ever seen the SPC list major cities in the risk area either. Anyone have archived stuff from April 8, 1998, May 3, 1999 or other days when there were F4 and F5's?

Not sure about April 8, 1998 (:oops: I don't remember that day. )

May 3, 1999, if I am correct, was not a high risk out of the gates. It begun as a slight risk, and increased throughout the day. When the obvious outbreak was occurring, SPC went to HIGH. It was not predicted to be a crazy day, so there was not listing of cities. I would imagine that OKC was mentioned in the later afternoon/early evening outlook since OKC had an F5 headed for them.

Otherwise, I have NEVER seen this happen in my memory bank. Very ominous indeed!!!

[Optical]

Oh damn! I have 10 graduation parties to go to tonight. I will be sure to bring my camera along if anything happens.

[Guest]

Oh damn! I have 10 graduation parties to go to tonight. I will be sure to bring my camera along if anything happens.

You might also consider listening to commercial radio or having a weather radio nearby, too!

[Brent]

I don't think I've ever seen the SPC list major cities in the risk area either. Anyone have archived stuff from April 8, 1998, May 3, 1999 or other days when there were F4 and F5's?

Not sure about April 8, 1998 (:oops: I don't remember that day. )

May 3, 1999, if I am correct, was not a high risk out of the gates. It begun as a slight risk, and increased throughout the day. When the obvious outbreak was occurring, SPC went to HIGH. It was not predicted to be a crazy day, so there was not listing of cities. I would imagine that OKC was mentioned in the later afternoon/early evening outlook since OKC had an F5 headed for them.

Otherwise, I have NEVER seen this happen in my memory bank. Very ominous indeed!!!

April 8th was when the F5 hit just outside of Birmingham. You probably don't remember since it didn't affect you.

[snoopj]

Since I'm going to be out and about and don't know about access to radios, I signed up for the Notify! service on weather.com. Hopefully that will help. It beats not having anything.

--snoopj

[Guest]

April 8th was when the F5 hit just outside of Birmingham. You probably don't remember since it didn't affect you.

As Celine Dione would say or sing: "It is all coming back to me now..."

[Brent]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
RSL HLC 40 NE MCK 30 ENE BUB 20 N SUX 25 SW DSM 40 ENE CNU 50 SW JLN
45 W MKO 35 SE OKC 35 N FSI 50 S RSL.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 35
E GAG 50 SW RSL 25 WSW HLC 30 NNE MCK 30 NNW BUB 30 WNW HON 35 N ATY
20 SSE AXN 30 NNE MKT 30 WSW MCW 30 NNW OTM 45 NNE SZL 10 SSW SGF
FSM 10 ENE DUA 20 ESE SPS LTS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
INL 30 NW OSH 35 W CGX 55 NNW POF 45 NNW LIT 25 S DAL 40 NW HDO DRT
45 ESE P07 45 ESE BGS 30 S CDS 15 S GAG DDC 35 NNW GCK 30 NE LAA 25
SSW LIC 45 WSW AKO 20 NE AIA 20 NNW PHP 45 WNW BIS 60 NNE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ELO 30 W MQT 35
N MKG 20 NNW FDY 10 SSE EKN 40 WSW HSE ..CONT.. 10 NE SSI 40 SW
MCN 15 NNE MGM 50 W SEM 30 NNW LUL 20 SW HEZ 15 WSW ESF 45 NW POE 15
N GGG 45 ESE DAL 35 SW TPL 50 NW LRD ..CONT.. 35 ESE P07 35 E BGS
15 NNW CDS 40 ESE LBL 25 NE LBL 30 SSE LAA 10 E RTN 20 S 4SL 50 NNW
INW 45 ENE GCN 20 E BCE 15 WNW U28 40 W VEL 30 ENE SLC 55 SSE BYI 50
WNW SUN 45 N ALW 50 NNE 4OM.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN NEB...WRN
IA...CNTRL AND ERN KS...NW MO AND CNTRL/NRN OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
THAT INCLUDES PARTS OF NEB/SD/MN/IA/MO/AR AND OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE
PLNS AND MID/UPR MS VLY...

...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
PLAINS AND MS VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW OVER GRT BASIN WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVES FROM THE PLNS TO THE OH/TN VLYS.
HEIGHTS FALLS...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CNTRL U.S.

SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN HI PLNS SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING THE LWR MO VLY THIS EVENING...AND THE
LWR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONGER UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE... EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM COMPLEX OF FEATURES ATTM OVER
THE SRN GRT BASIN...SHOULD TRACK E/NE AND REACH THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY.

A SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN KS LATER TODAY AS MAIN
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EDGES E INTO THE PLNS. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
INTO SRN MN BY 12Z SUNDAY AS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS N INTO THE
MID/UPR MS VLY AND TRAILING DRY LINE MOVES E ACROSS THE CNTRL/ SRN
PLNS.

...NRN KS/NW MO CNTRL AND ERN NEB INTO ERN SD/MN/IA...
SURFACE HEATING AND APPROACH OF SRN PLNS UPPER IMPULSE WILL RESULT
IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE LWR MO/UPR MS VLY REGION LATER
TODAY...WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1500 IN SE SD/SW MN
TO AOA 3500 J/KG IN SRN AND ERN NEB/NRN KS. BAND OF 40 KT SSWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE FOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SEVERE MCS EARLY TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/BOWS WILL LIKELY POSE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HIGH
WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES E AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO PARTS
OF IA/MN WI AND NW IL.

FARTHER N...ELEVATED STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL INTO THE ERN
HALF OF ND AND NRN MN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES N OF WARM FRONT.

...CNTRL/SRN KS INTO OK/NW TX...
MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER TO A MORE WSWLY DIRECTION OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE PLNS TODAY IN WAKE OF IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
WRN KS/OK. AN AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING /PER
700 ANALYSIS/ WILL LIKELY FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE. BUT
EXTRAPOLATION OF FEATURES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE COMPLEX SHOULD REACH THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

SURFACE HEATING...AND INFLUX OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH
AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF KS/OK AND
NW TX. STRENGTHENING CAP MAY TEMPORARILY DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND
BREADTH OF WARM SECTOR WILL CREATE A STRONG CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
INTENSE/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES AS CAPPED IS BREACHED ALONG DRY LINE. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW FURTHER
STRENGTHENS WITH CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. THIS
WOULD EXTEND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EWD INTO ERN
OK...NW AR AND CNTRL AND SRN MO.

[Guest]

Basically, they just expanded the high risk a bit, particuarly on the northern end. Now the high risk includes parts of western Iowa. Strong tornadoes possible in this area later this afternoon.

[simplykristi]

The dewpoint was 63 with a temp of 75 at 11 AM.

Kristi

[simplykristi]

The temp is now 76 with a dewpoint of 64.

Kristi

[USAwx1]

Increasing/intensifying pressure falls taking place across KS over the past two hours:



tongue of upper 60s-low 70s dewpoints along with increasing surface heating is already pushing Surface based CAPE up into the 3000-3500 J/kg range over N central OK, and C central KS as CIN/CAP strength decrease:





Should start seeing action after 19z, FIRST over central areas of NB and KS ahead of the dryline, spreading southward and becoming increasingly discrete in nature especially across TX.

[Stormsfury]

I don't think I've ever seen the SPC list major cities in the risk area either. Anyone have archived stuff from April 8, 1998, May 3, 1999 or other days when there were F4 and F5's?

Not sure about April 8, 1998 (:oops: I don't remember that day. )

May 3, 1999, if I am correct, was not a high risk out of the gates. It begun as a slight risk, and increased throughout the day. When the obvious outbreak was occurring, SPC went to HIGH. It was not predicted to be a crazy day, so there was not listing of cities. I would imagine that OKC was mentioned in the later afternoon/early evening outlook since OKC had an F5 headed for them.

Otherwise, I have NEVER seen this happen in my memory bank. Very ominous indeed!!!

THe May 3rd, 1999 outbreak was only a slight risk and it was for severe thunderstorms, NOT tornadoes ... another poster, Nalora, posted quite a bit of info and links and it wasn't until about 3 hours or so that the conditions deteriorated so rapidly that almost rapid fire watches went out. Explosive situation couldn't describe the May 3rd, 1999 and do it justice.

SF

[Colin]

For some reason, I'm not able to sign up for the free notify thing...but I have a radio (walkie-talkie) which broadcasts severe weather warnings as soon as they are issued...but it's not looking too nasty this way, so I probably won't need to use it. But those of you in the plains need to stay safe and heed the appropriate warnings!

[Brent]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0971.html

Tornado Watch may be needed in the next hour or so for Northeast Nebraska and into Iowa. First of many I'm afraid.

[Guest]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0971.html

Tornado Watch may be needed in the next hour or so for Northeast Nebraska and into Iowa. First of many I'm afraid.

I think it will be a red parallelogram feast this afternoon.

[Aquawind]

Wicked Dryline!!!!

[weatherwunder]

Dewpoint is 66 at 1pm in Lincoln.

[ssom04]

temp is 66 but rising steadly , clearing is taking place here in southern and south west minnesota. The current dew points range from 60-68 in southern minnesota. temps range from 65-75 the farther you get to the minnesota-south dakota border. Once clearing takes places temps will be up in to the 80s at least with the sse wind 20-35 mph gusting to 40 mph..........temp on my weather bug just jumped from 66 to 70........................it shall get good!! mark 5-29-04 somewhere its going to be a memorable day!