Stormsfury wrote:USAwx1 wrote:wx247 wrote:Great discussion guys! I am learning a lot. Keep on pluggin' away!
Thanks...Stormsfury wrote:the same trend was seen in the ETA and GFS over the past few days.
Noticed that, also ... also seems like the ECMWF warm bias has been playing some role as well ... I've noticed that the 0z ECMWF runs are generally a bit warmer than the 12z runs (but part of that is probably attributed to the time of day - 8 am vs. 8 pm) ...
yeah, but thats where being able to pick out trends in the data come into play, the ETA was VERY bullish a few days ago w/ 850H temps of over 18C over a good portion of the Northeast between 18z and 0z WED-THU, and has now backed off considerably, ditto that for the GFS operational.
the ECMWF has been the warmest, which puts it at odds w/ the cooler ETA, and the ETA into better agreement w/ the GFS over the past day or so.
Yep ... one thing that REALLY encourages me is that the ETA is emphatic on bringing some discrete little s/w's through enhancing my chances of afternoon convection for the next few days ... something that definitely has been lacking in May...
And hopefully keep things from getting TOO dry, however, what i am MORE concerned about is what happens across the plains when that monster lifts up into the northern Rockies
the GFS says it weakens and opens up as it lifts out, but there is still plenty of room for trouble on THU and FRI SVR wx wise across the plains.
