IF you live in the Northeast and want warm wx...

[deguy50]

great graphics

[Anonymous]

Yes the graphics are pretty good too. I'd agree that it'll take time for the PV to traverse from Siberia to Central Canada, and the timing on the chart makes sense to me. In fact, I'd rather have it AFTER Mid NOV than before that time, otherwise we'd waste a cold pattern way too early - and the result would be a return to a more zonal flow just in time for X'mas.

That reminds me of 2002 - Oct/Nov way too cold/stormy over midwest/north, then after about Dec.10, milder weather (zonal flow) returned until early January again. It took 30 whole days to return to a strongly -NAO/eastern trough pattern all because wrong timing that year.

So the timing would be much more favorable this year for a cold/snowy pattern beginning from around Thanksiving through January. Plus snowcover, as many of us know, is way ahead of schedule already. This will likely enhance chances of very cold arctic outbreaks to move over snowcovered areas into the midwest/east in late Nov/Dec/Jan.

[wxguy25]

Yes the graphics are pretty good too. I'd agree that it'll take time for the PV to traverse from Siberia to Central Canada, and the timing on the chart makes sense to me. In fact, I'd rather have it AFTER Mid NOV than before that time, otherwise we'd waste a cold pattern way too early - and the result would be a return to a more zonal flow just in time for X'mas.

That reminds me of 2002 - Oct/Nov way too cold/stormy over midwest/north, then after about Dec.10, milder weather (zonal flow) returned until early January again. It took 30 whole days to return to a strongly -NAO/eastern trough pattern all because wrong timing that year.

So the timing would be much more favorable this year for a cold/snowy pattern beginning from around Thanksiving through January. Plus snowcover, as many of us know, is way ahead of schedule already. This will likely enhance chances of very cold arctic outbreaks to move over snowcovered areas into the midwest/east in late Nov/Dec/Jan.

Thats a good point about 2002. The switch may be in the process of getting underway already. The warm pool North of Hawaii is shifting eastward slowly in the means. Once it gets into the GOA, we will see the PAC jet shut down, the RNA pattern reverse its self (PNA goes positive), a tendency for split flow and rex blocking off the west coast and the mean trough progress and eventually lock off in the EUS toward DEC—which is more typical of El NINO – west QBO conditions during the late autumn and early winter.

IMO its not about IF the switch will occur b/c IT WILL, its more a question of WHEN or for that matter how quickly. Link below is to 13 day average global SSTA from environment Canada.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/sais ... _gl_sd.gif

Three things here, 1) we have the El Nino centered in the 4.0 region w/ a normal to slightly cooler than average east. Classic split and similar to several El Nino events during the 1960s and 1970s. Closest match is probably SEP-OCT 1977 leading to the winter of 1977-78. 1963-64 was also close. 2) The warm pool progressing eastward toward the GOA which will reverse the current pattern. 3) warm water surrounds Iceland, Greenland and spans most of the Greenland sea westward toward the Davis strait and Labrador w/ cool pool south of it near the western coast of Europe supporting a signal for a mostly –NAO.

[wxguy25]

BTW, about the snowcover, Im not sure of the exact numbers for SEP since their not out yet. Data from previous years can be found at

ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/ ... ea/NH_AREA

The snowcover is very pronounced over western North America, and Siberia. This is due to the fac tthat the PV has been located over that region in the means for some time, and the trough in the west has kept things below normal in that region leading to the rapid increase there.

As far as the comparison to past years go, this year is blowing away 2003



looks similar to or somewhat behind 2002 but NOT by much



way ahead of 2000 and 2001

[wxguy25]

The new GSM supports the idea of the reversal taking place during the last three weeks of NOV

SFC temps
http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF ... eek_04.gif

H5
http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF ... eek_04.gif

Note the above average temps over Northeastern Quebec indicating the presence of blocking and a primarily negative NAO. The west also warms as the trough progresses eastward and is replaced by ridging in the means. At 500H the Aleutian low also makes a comeback which helps to turn the PNA positive.

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the charts and informative posts, Wxguy25 !

As the RNA switches to +PNA(ridging out West) in the means later this November, I'll be looking forward to a developing eastern trough as heights rise over Greenland (-NAO) combined with increasing snowcover over NA should make this winter very interesting as arctic air masses infiltrate the US east of the Rockies with less modification as we move toward the prime winter months, combined with phasing of the STJ(enhanced by a weak El-Nino) and PJ will make conditions favorable for winter cyclogenesis in the East CONUS. This means a good chance of some memorable winterstorms can be expected as the true winter pattern begins to evolve over the US in coming months. IF the warm pool in the GOA is very significant and the western block becomes very extensive as a result after the pattern switch, a highly amplified ridge/trough pattern may evolve, especially if the NAO becomes strongly negative combined with extensive northern Hemispheric snowcover. This would support a large north to south swing of the AJ/PJ deep into the lower 48. Combine that with phasing of the STJ - and we'd be talking blizzards !!

Of course whether the exact combination of this setup occurs is yet to be seen. Time will tell.

[wxguy25]

Overall, the two closest analogs to the current SSTA configuration in the North pacific are 1963 and 1977. Both of which had Weak El Nino – west conditions

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/ ... .month.gif

SEP-OCT 1963, 1977 SSTA

The data should already be input for you, all you have to do is just make the map.

This is what NOV looked like at h500

Notice the pattern is fairly similar to what we have going now. Negative anomaly located along the West coast of North America, and pronounced blocking over the Davis Strait, Labrador and BI

December 1963, 1977 h500

And so the flip occurs. This is how the pattern should evolve over the next two months.

I think there may be a late November moderate event in the EUS and a strong December Nor’easter (yeah again for the third year in a row) as the analogs would suggest.

[Wnghs2007]

Overall, the two closest analogs to the current SSTA configuration in the North pacific are 1963 and 1977. Both of which had Weak El Nino – west conditions

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/ ... .month.gif

SEP-OCT 1963, 1977 SSTA

The data should already be input for you, all you have to do is just make the map.

This is what NOV looked like at h500

Notice the pattern is fairly similar to what we have going now. Negative anomaly located along the West coast of North America, and pronounced blocking over the Davis Strait, Labrador and BI

December 1963, 1977 h500

And so the flip occurs. This is how the pattern should evolve over the next two months.

I think there may be a late November moderate event in the EUS and a strong December Nor’easter (yeah again for the third year in a row) as the analogs would suggest.

Well you know something funny for the first time I have seen past 250 hrs out on the 12z and 18z GFS actually agreed with each other showing a strong storm system developing. I like could not believed my eyes that it had not flipped

[BL03]

Overall, the two closest analogs to the current SSTA configuration in the North pacific are 1963 and 1977. Both of which had Weak El Nino – west conditions

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/ ... .month.gif

SEP-OCT 1963, 1977 SSTA

The data should already be input for you, all you have to do is just make the map.

This is what NOV looked like at h500

Notice the pattern is fairly similar to what we have going now. Negative anomaly located along the West coast of North America, and pronounced blocking over the Davis Strait, Labrador and BI

December 1963, 1977 h500

And so the flip occurs. This is how the pattern should evolve over the next two months.

I think there may be a late November moderate event in the EUS and a strong December Nor’easter (yeah again for the third year in a row) as the analogs would suggest.

Nice post and agree. Pattern should change like that with a event in Nov which may be more of an inland threat but first and early snows are possible in many areas during this period. Then the possible Dec storm comes into play which should be a nice storm but who gets the prize is pretty hard to see at this point I am rooting for an X-MAS Nor'easter. It would be nuts if the NE does see another major storm in DEC after Dec 5 02, X-MAS Dec 02, and the 2 part storm last year Dec 5-7 03!! The funny thing is it just may happen again! At least I hope so.

[wxguy25]

Well you know something funny for the first time I have seen past 250 hrs out on the 12z and 18z GFS actually agreed with each other showing a strong storm system developing. I like could not believed my eyes that it had not flipped

Now what was the saying that I intended to copyright this past summer during the cane season about the GFS long range output—GFS=GOOD FOR SH!T

Reason why the GFS does that is because of the model resolution. It should be disregarded past day 5 and really IMO should not be run past 240 hrs. Ill bet the 0z run loses it. If it does not I’ll be VERY…VERY surprised. The ECMWF will 9 times out of 10 do somewhat to substantially better verification wise than the GFS.

[wxguy25]

Overall, the two closest analogs to the current SSTA configuration in the North pacific are 1963 and 1977. Both of which had Weak El Nino – west conditions

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/ ... .month.gif

SEP-OCT 1963, 1977 SSTA

The data should already be input for you, all you have to do is just make the map.

This is what NOV looked like at h500

Notice the pattern is fairly similar to what we have going now. Negative anomaly located along the West coast of North America, and pronounced blocking over the Davis Strait, Labrador and BI

December 1963, 1977 h500

And so the flip occurs. This is how the pattern should evolve over the next two months.

I think there may be a late November moderate event in the EUS and a strong December Nor’easter (yeah again for the third year in a row) as the analogs would suggest.

Nice post and agree. Pattern should change like that with a event in Nov which may be more of an inland threat but first and early snows are possible in many areas during this period. Then the possible Dec storm comes into play which should be a nice storm but who gets the prize is pretty hard to see at this point I am rooting for an X-MAS Nor'easter. It would be nuts if the NE does see another major storm in DEC after Dec 5 02, X-MAS Dec 02, and the 2 part storm last year Dec 5-7 03!! The funny thing is it just may happen again! At least I hope so.

No, not two events in the same month to the extent of last DEC and the year before, I don’t think that will happen and if for some reason it does, it would be unprecedented. The NOV event may be the catalyst for the pattern change. We have seen it many times before. The DEC event may just as easily be an ice event w/ significant snow just inland of the big cities. This is all VERY speculative though.

[Wnghs2007]

Well you know something funny for the first time I have seen past 250 hrs out on the 12z and 18z GFS actually agreed with each other showing a strong storm system developing. I like could not believed my eyes that it had not flipped

Now what was the saying that I intended to copyright this past summer during the cane season about the GFS long range output—GFS=GOOD FOR SH!T

Reason why the GFS does that is because of the model resolution. It should be disregarded past day 5 and really IMO should not be run past 240 hrs. Ill bet the 0z run loses it. If it does not I’ll be VERY…VERY surprised. The ECMWF will 9 times out of 10 do somewhat to substantially better verification wise than the GFS.

LOL I know.....You did see this post right in the winter forum by me

Back in September

GFS hitting winter time woes again..

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=48418


Hehe.

[wxguy25]

Well you know something funny for the first time I have seen past 250 hrs out on the 12z and 18z GFS actually agreed with each other showing a strong storm system developing. I like could not believed my eyes that it had not flipped

Now what was the saying that I intended to copyright this past summer during the cane season about the GFS long range output—GFS=GOOD FOR SH!T

Reason why the GFS does that is because of the model resolution. It should be disregarded past day 5 and really IMO should not be run past 240 hrs. Ill bet the 0z run loses it. If it does not I’ll be VERY…VERY surprised. The ECMWF will 9 times out of 10 do somewhat to substantially better verification wise than the GFS.

LOL I know.....You did see this post right in the winter forum by me

Back in September

GFS hitting winter time woes again..

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=48418


Hehe.

No...But I have seen it now. LOL. The GFS will do this more times during the coming winter than the polls will shift back and forth between Kerry and Bush over the next 8 days. That’s a promise and guarantee

[BL03]

Overall, the two closest analogs to the current SSTA configuration in the North pacific are 1963 and 1977. Both of which had Weak El Nino – west conditions

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/ ... .month.gif

SEP-OCT 1963, 1977 SSTA

The data should already be input for you, all you have to do is just make the map.

This is what NOV looked like at h500

Notice the pattern is fairly similar to what we have going now. Negative anomaly located along the West coast of North America, and pronounced blocking over the Davis Strait, Labrador and BI

December 1963, 1977 h500

And so the flip occurs. This is how the pattern should evolve over the next two months.

I think there may be a late November moderate event in the EUS and a strong December Nor’easter (yeah again for the third year in a row) as the analogs would suggest.

Nice post and agree. Pattern should change like that with a event in Nov which may be more of an inland threat but first and early snows are possible in many areas during this period. Then the possible Dec storm comes into play which should be a nice storm but who gets the prize is pretty hard to see at this point I am rooting for an X-MAS Nor'easter. It would be nuts if the NE does see another major storm in DEC after Dec 5 02, X-MAS Dec 02, and the 2 part storm last year Dec 5-7 03!! The funny thing is it just may happen again! At least I hope so.

No, not two events in the same month to the extent of last DEC and the year before, I don’t think that will happen and if for some reason it does, it would be unprecedented. The NOV event may be the catalyst for the pattern change. We have seen it many times before. The DEC event may just as easily be an ice event w/ significant snow just inland of the big cities. This is all VERY speculative though.

I was just listing the good storms from the past Dec's never saying there will be 2 big storms in Dec or anything this year, find that very hard to do esp in the same areas (big cities). And as for the Nov storm being the event that could change the pattern for good, could very well be the case.

[wxguy25]

I was just listing the good storms from the past Dec's never saying there will be 2 big storms in Dec or anything this year, find that very hard to do esp in the same areas (big cities). And as for the Nov storm being the event that could change the pattern for good, could very well be the case.

Ok my mistake, I thought you were suggesting that there could be two storms of equal proportions this DEC. My confidence in ONE December event is pretty high since two of my five analog years had a Kocin storm in DEC right around xmas...2002 was NOT one of those years though.

[BL03]

I was just listing the good storms from the past Dec's never saying there will be 2 big storms in Dec or anything this year, find that very hard to do esp in the same areas (big cities). And as for the Nov storm being the event that could change the pattern for good, could very well be the case.

Ok my mistake, I thought you were suggesting that there could be two storms of equal proportions this DEC. My confidence in ONE December event is pretty high since two of my five analog years had a Kocin storm in DEC right around xmas...2002 was NOT one of those years though.

Yes, lol
I dont expect two major storms in DEC for the east since that would be pretty rare and there's nothing telling me it will happen. Thats for DEC not the whole winter. Right now I like the chances of some kind of event in the East but if it will be large and major (rain,snow,ice,etc )I dont know yet, but if you and your analogs are right then dec shouldn't be boring in terms of weather.

BTW looking forward to your winter outlook which I would guess will be out around the beginning of Nov.

[wxguy25]

Yes, lol
I dont expect two major storms in DEC for the east since that would be pretty rare and there's nothing telling me it will happen. Thats for DEC not the whole winter. Right now I like the chances of some kind of event in the East but if it will be large and major (rain,snow,ice,etc )I dont know yet, but if you and your analogs are right then dec shouldn't be boring in terms of weather.

BTW looking forward to your winter outlook which I would guess will be out around the beginning of Nov.

The winter outlook is finished and will be out as soon as I can find a way to get it online.

As far as Notable storms go Im looking for the following:

1. A Mid to late NOV (Thanksgiving) Fluke.
2. An early to mid december Ice storm for the lower OH valley and Mid Atlantic.
3. Severe late december Nor'easter
4. Major January Midwest Snow event
5. Major East coast Snowstorm in JAN.
6. Major East Coast snowstorm in Early MAR.

The specifics can be worked out when (or IF) the events pan out. Time will tell.

[BL03]

Good luck on the outlook and I hope you are right about those storms.
Agree with the Nov, both Dec events with the second being more severe, the Jan midwest event and Mar event for the East. I still have to look into some things for this winter about the storms so right now I am only looking into the Dec event but I also like a Mar event.

Got to stop dreaming about snowstorms! lol

[wxguy25]

Thanks. I have had a great deal of success in past years; hopefully I can keep my streak alive this winter.

As far as the snowstorms go--you should be living those dreams if my analogs are correct up there on Long Island. I will be the one dreaming down here In the I-4 corridor. I wish I was back in the northeast again...but its one of the sacrifices you make for a better paying job in this business.

The most important factor in deciding the outcome of the first half of the winter is the East pacific Signal IMO. I mean we can pretty much tell that the NAO is going to be negative this year; we have the El Nino in place in the 3.4 and 4.0 regions with a normal to cold east in the long term PDO negative phase, and solar activity is not going to be an issue—which takes care of three of the four big seasonal predictors. All of which with the exception of the EPAC signal (which is in a state of change right now) favor a cold, snowy EUS winter.

Oh I should also mention that the EPAC signal is equally important to the favored phase of the Arctic oscillation, just as much as the Atlantic SSTA set-up is since the other anomalous height center of opposite sign to what’s found over the pole is located near the Aleutian Islands. This is why the EPAC signal is important. In 2002, that warm pool helped anchor the pattern that lead of a persistently negative AO during the OCT-DEC period. Infact from the looks of things that period featured the strongest –AO in the means over the past 50-55 years.

[Wnghs2007]

Well, I hope that we have some good storms this winter down here. Im waiting on *looks around to see if SF is peaking* "THE WEDGE". but seriously I hope that in about a month or so Im sitting here with Ice Storm Warnings about or Snow advisories or something .