Fred Gossage wrote:yoda wrote:But wait, could we be seeing the worst come at night?
JAN AFD, 5:15 AM EST... TODAYAFTER 36 HOURS...MUCH HAS BEEN WRITTEN IN THE PAST FEW AFDS ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SO I
WILL NOT ELABORATE TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY SINCE MODEL FORECASTS ARE
NOT WAVERING MUCH. THE ONE ASPECT THAT WAS CHANGED WAS TO SLOW DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF THE MAJOR UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS AND TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL OUTBREAK. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOCUSED ON THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME...BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE BECOMING MORE INSISTENT THAT THE EVENT
WILL COME TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME...ALBEIT MORE LIMITED...POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER STARTING DAYTIME TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. ADDITIONALLY...THE GRADUAL TREND OF THE MODELS TO SHIFT THE
TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER SOUTH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THE
GREATEST OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHEAR PARAMETERS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LAST...BUT NOT LEAST...WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENT. BY THIS TIME SUCH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT LEAST ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO CONTEMPLATE A FLOOD WATCH. ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE HWO.
Not to takeaway from the severity of the threat, but wouldn't this help some?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/cgi-bin/pro ... &version=0
Since this has been compared to the November 21-23, 1992 event.....I thought I would throw out the point that an event coming in during the overnight does not always mean it will be less significant... Take those two F4 MS tornadoes in that 1992b event for example. See, if dewpoints get into the lower 70s, it's rather difficult to get them back down without a front actually sweeping them out. And we all know that the temperature has to be at or higher than the dewpoint, which means...in that case...they wouldn't be in the 60s. Couple that with 500-mb temps of -14 C approaching rapidly from the west....and the instability really doesn't diminish all that much after dark south of the warm front.
Ah ok. Thanks. I was wondering about that. Most interesting... I hope this event does not turn out to be like the 1992 event, there were man tornadoes, and the two that you mention stand out clearly. Good post.
