TX Severe Threat

[jeff]

Nice comma head moving through the Lufkin area across Panola and Shelby counties with enhacement of squall line over and SW of this location. Overall trend however has been for a decrease in intensity in the past few hours.

Of note is also the increasing cells over SW LA which look a little nasty. Heating is taking place over this area and the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable so supercells and the main line may intensify through early afternoon.

[jeff]

Flood Warning for the Leon River near Hamilton TX.

Excessive rainfall of 4-7 inches last night has produced a rise to above flood stage along the river.

[NWIASpotter]

I saw that comma head as well on radar.. It was pretty nice looking, surprised there was never a warnign that came out of that cell. Although I don't have access to all of the radar data, but as far as I could tell is it was a potent storm.

[jeff]

Severe MCS with large bow echo on northern end of line moving into W LA. Heating continues ahead of main line from E of Fort Polk to W of Lake Charles.

Damaging wind threat will continue across C LA well into the afternoon and into SW MS this evening. Storms may intensify even more of SE LA and SW MS late this afternoon.

Will be watching TX by late afternoon for next round. More on this later

[southerngale]

Thanks for the update on Brownwood, Jeff.

They just issued a severe thunderstorm warning here.

[Yankeegirl]

Is the Houston area going to get in on this action? Looks like Beaumont and the PNG area just got nailed....

[jeff]

Is the Houston area going to get in on this action? Looks like Beaumont and the PNG area just got nailed....

I will have an update on the local threat this afternoon. Current visible images and 88D data show stalling outflow boundary from Lake Charles to Downtown Houston to S of Austin. Active "seabreeze" front moving inland over Galveston and Brazoria counties producing some new development.

C TX baking under sun with air mass starting to recover. Next shortwave heading E over C Mexico will make for another very active night across C and SE TX.

[jeff]

Sever threat increasing over SW TX and Trans Pecos region. Weather watch box will likely be issued to cover severe hail threat within the next 1-2 hours.

Cold front interesection with dry line south of Midland along with strong surface heating is starting to initiate echoes south of Midland. Vis. shows TCu in a band along the front and S along the dry line. Short wave energy will approach SW TX over the next few hours and mid level laspe rates are very steep.

Storms should develop and go quickly severe this afternoon from Midland to Del Rio and then congeal into another MCS and move ESE along stalled outflow boundary from Austin to Houston. Storms will transition into all severe modes south of outflow boundary where local air mass has not been worked over.

[jeff]

Flash Flood Watch posted for C TX through Thursday morning.

Widespread heavy rainfall is expected tonight into THursday with average 1-2 inch amounts and isolated 2-4 inch amounts, although somebody will probably see a 6-8 inch amount.

Severe storms already ongoing over SW TX will form into a large slow moving MCS

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like all the action is over the Eastern part of Texas.... Its going to move west over night? Or a line is going to form to the west later on? It is still beautiful here, 82 and sunny! Too bad that has to come to an end!!

[jeff]

Looks like all the action is over the Eastern part of Texas.... Its going to move west over night? Or a line is going to form to the west later on? It is still beautiful here, 82 and sunny! Too bad that has to come to an end!!

New MCS will fire over SW and C Tx this evening and move E overnight.

In addition thunderstorms along I-10 east and over Brazoria counties are backbuilding W along stalled outflow boundary

[jeff]

Incredible rainfall pounding the SW LA coast. 88D suggest upwards of 10 inches has fallen since this afternoon S of Lake Charles.

Old MCS continues to remain stationary while backbuilding west into moist and unstable air mass over SE TX. Very heavy rains will continue as there is nothing to shift the axis off the coast. Good thing is that there is not a whole lot where the heaviest rain is falling.

SE TX:

Active outflow boundary firing storms across Harris County extending NW to near College Station. Storms continue to develop and move less than 5 mph to the E and SE. Extremely heavy rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour continue under the strongest cells. Activity appears to be increasing based on radar loop and area is coming under the influence of more favorable dynamics. A serious flash flood threat will be developing if storms continue to develop and move slowly across the county.

[jeff]

Hail falling at the house here, between a marble and pea size. Intense CG strikes.

[Yankeegirl]

Getting in on some of the action here in thed Cypress area. Nothing to write home about, but we are getting some good lightning and thunder. Moderate rain in spurts. But I think most of the bad stuff is going to head to our north, around Tomball and Hooks Airport... Ill keep posting if anything happens!

[jeff]

Flash Flooding developing across Harris County. ALERT gage data show 15 minute rainfall rate of .50 inch along Greens Bayou and Halls Bayou over the northern part of the county. Storms appear to be congealing into a solid line from Wallis (70DBZ) to Katy to Aldine.

Very heavy rainfall and large hail is expected with these storms. Flash flooding will be developing within urban areas with significant rises on area bayous.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Got a gut feeling we'll see some strong to severe stuff down here towards sunirise. It's humid and still outside right now like a summer evening. It got up to the upper 80's today too.

[Yankeegirl]

Pea sized hail just at my house

[Yankeegirl]

So is this it for the night? Or more thinking about being born? Sounds like we are about to get another round...

[jeff]

HPC has place SE TX under an excessive rianfall outlook and RFC has issued a flood outlook for the Brazos, Tirnity, and San Jacinto River basins

Heavy thunderstorms continue to develop and sit over Harris County along ESE to WNW outflow boundary. Cell mergers producing 4.0 inch per hour rainfall rates along iwth penny to baseball size hail. Urban flash flooding is developing from I-45 to US 290 and S to the N 610 loop. Current concern is for Greens, Halls bayous and Cypress Creek

Models look grim for Thursday as impressive divergence, front, and high moisture levels combine over the region. We should see a wide band of heavy rain for much of the day with totals upwards of 5-8 inches. Significant flooding of local bayous and creeks will be possible if we see such rainfall rates. River flooding will also become an increasing concern.

[jeff]

So is this it for the night? Or more thinking about being born? Sounds like we are about to get another round...

This is just the start. We may get a break after midnight until about 600am before the main brunt arrives. Thursday is haping up bad from a flood stand point.

Will be a long day so I am off for some rest before duty calls