Indications are a wedge may set up in northeastern Georgia and western North Carolina. Yes, it may mitigate severe potential in those areas but where that cool air meets the warm moist air from the Gulf - which in this case is right over the Atlanta metro area - winds back locally and convergence is maximized. This means if any strong tornado will occur, it will occur there.
Aside from that, this setup isn't looking like what it was looking like yesterday night but it's still very impressive. New 0Z NAM makes the low more neutrally-tilted, and this new 0Z run probably has some of the best initialization so far with this system since the system has just come ashore and is now pounding us here in SoCal. Instability is very impressive for the second day in the New Year, but winds do not back enough at the sfc for a widespread tornado outbreak. Not only that, but the best dynamics and instability are not juxtaposed together.
Note this is just stuff from other forums rewritten, I have yet to make a detailed analysis with the 0Z runs.
Major outbreak of Severe WX expected in the Southeast
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Brent
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This is for today(Sunday):
...GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION/SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN LA...SRN
MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO SCNTRL AL AND SWRN GA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE ACCESS TO MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A FEW SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELL
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR PEAK
HEATING.
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ALLOWING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT FROM NE MS ACROSS WRN TN IN
NRN AL. INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
STRONG SHEAR AS A MID-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE CELLS WILL
HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS QUICKLY MOVE NEWD
ACROSS CNTRL TN AND NRN AL. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL
STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WRN KY AND SRN
IND AS THE 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THAT REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER...THE STRONG ASCENT
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 70 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ENEWD
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
...GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION/SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN LA...SRN
MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO SCNTRL AL AND SWRN GA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE ACCESS TO MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A FEW SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELL
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR PEAK
HEATING.
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ALLOWING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT FROM NE MS ACROSS WRN TN IN
NRN AL. INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
STRONG SHEAR AS A MID-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE CELLS WILL
HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS QUICKLY MOVE NEWD
ACROSS CNTRL TN AND NRN AL. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL
STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WRN KY AND SRN
IND AS THE 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THAT REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER...THE STRONG ASCENT
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 70 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ENEWD
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
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#neversummer
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38091
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
CSV 45 W UNI ZZV 30 ENE PKB 20 SE CRW 45 W BLF 10 ENE AVL 35 NW SOP
FAY CHS SSI VLD DHN TOI 40 SW CSV.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW
BVE 0A8 BWG 20 W SDF IND 25 NNW FWA 10 ENE TOL 30 NNW YNG DUJ EKN
SSU PSK 40 N GSO RIC 50 E WAL ...CONT... 50 E DAB 40 W PIE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OTH MHS LOL
U31 DPG 4HV U17 IGM 35 NW TRM 45 WSW SAN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S HUM MEI TUP EVV
DNV PIA BRL 25 SE ALO MTW 70 ESE BAX ...CONT... 25 WNW BUF 40 WNW
ITH ISP 40 SSW BID ...CONT... 35 E VRB 50 WSW FMY.
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES....
INTENSE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...AND EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. WILL
OCCUR TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER JET PROGGED TO BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN INTO SERIES OF AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES.
LEAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH CENTER OF BROAD DEEP SURFACE LOW SHIFTING
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. OCCLUDING SURFACE
LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK /ON THE
ORDER OF 90 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL FORM ON SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BEFORE NOSING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 850 MB/ FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
GIVEN NEAR COMPLETE MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW GENERALLY NEAR 70F...A
SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST AREAS
BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DEW POINTS
INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 60F APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA
BY MONDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING SHEAR
PROFILES...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL. WARM
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERE MAY INITIALLY CAP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
UPSTREAM...MODELS INDICATE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INLAND
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. COLD CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM COULD
SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOS ANGELES BASIN...BUT UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL
SUBSTANTIAL...AND TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY OUTLOOK SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
...MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
ALTHOUGH SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE PAST PEAK INTENSITY...
FORCING WITH INITIAL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN EXPECTED MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 500
J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT SHOULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR LIKELY...AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST
IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF SURFACE LOW... FROM PARTS OF
INDIANA INTO OHIO...AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE
AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
GEORGIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ALABAMA/NORTHERN FLORIDA/ SOUTH
CAROLINA. WITH APPROACH OF STRENGTHENING/DIGGING MID/UPPER JET
STREAK...HODOGRAPHS/FORCING SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.
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#neversummer
-
Skywatch_NC
- Category 5
- Posts: 10949
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 9:31 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC
- Contact:
wxmann_91 wrote:Indications are a wedge may set up in northeastern Georgia and western North Carolina. Yes, it may mitigate severe potential in those areas but where that cool air meets the warm moist air from the Gulf - which in this case is right over the Atlanta metro area - winds back locally and convergence is maximized. This means if any strong tornado will occur, it will occur there.
Aside from that, this setup isn't looking like what it was looking like yesterday night but it's still very impressive. New 0Z NAM makes the low more neutrally-tilted, and this new 0Z run probably has some of the best initialization so far with this system since the system has just come ashore and is now pounding us here in SoCal. Instability is very impressive for the second day in the New Year, but winds do not back enough at the sfc for a widespread tornado outbreak. Not only that, but the best dynamics and instability are not juxtaposed together.
Note this is just stuff from other forums rewritten, I have yet to make a detailed analysis with the 0Z runs.
You still have to look out though for any isolated tornado from a given supercell even though there likely won't be any widespread tornado outbreak.
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38091
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
ANB 20 S CSV 20 NNE LEX 25 NW UNI 20 SSW PKB 45 SSE HTS 20 WSW TRI
25 WSW AVL 15 NNW SPA 30 SSE GSO 20 NNE FAY 25 NNE CRE 25 SSW CHS 35
SSE AYS 30 NNE AAF 20 WNW PFN 20 ENE CEW 20 SSW ANB.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
DAB 40 W PIE ...CONT... 60 S BVE 40 NNE MOB 25 W SEM 30 SE BNA 45
NNE BWG 30 NE HUF 35 NE LAF 35 SW TOL 15 NNW CAK 25 NE PIT 10 ENE
LBE 45 W MRB 30 N SHD 20 SSW SSU 55 SSW BLF 35 NE HKY 30 ESE LYH 40
W RIC 20 W WAL 35 E WAL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OTH MHS LOL
U31 DPG 4HV U17 IGM 35 NW TRM 45 WSW SAN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E VRB 50 WSW FMY
...CONT... 70 S HUM 25 ENE MEI 20 SSW MSL 45 WSW OWB 25 N SLO 30 N
ALN 35 SW BRL 35 WSW DBQ 30 WNW MKE 45 NE MTC ...CONT... 40 NNW JHW
30 SSW ELM EWR 35 SSE ISP.
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...
...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY ENERGETIC AND AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC AND INLAND/EWD ACROSS THE U.S. MAINLAND INTO MIDWEEK.
POTENT IMPULSE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARD THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC DISTURBANCE...EVIDENT ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY APPROACHING 135 W...IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
SCNTRL CA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
IN THE EAST...DEEP CYCLONE TO START OUT THE PERIOD OVER IL WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WRN PA...AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD
OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY
SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL EXIST WELL INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY NARROW/CHANNELED NORTH
OF THE TN VALLEY WHERE APPALACHIAN ESCARPMENT WILL IMPEDE GREATER
AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THUS...A SECONDARY
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD EXIST FROM NRN GA ENEWD TO THE NC
PIEDMONT. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND WAVE
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
PRIMARY CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EVENING.
...OH TO TN VALLEYS...
AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF LOW/TRIPLE POINT OVER IL/IND...EWD TO
OH...AND THEN SWWD TO THE TN VALLEY. OH VALLEY ACTIVITY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT WILL OCCUR WITHIN STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WHERE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...PREFRONTAL
BAND OF MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AS STRONG DRY SLOT DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS OH/KY AND TN
THROUGH MIDDAY.
HEATING BENEATH THE DRY SLOT AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SEWD FROM THE
OH RIVER AND ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY/TN THROUGH EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS
AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF THIS CONVECTION CAN REMAIN
CELLULAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
...SOUTHEAST...
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE UNDERWAY WITHIN BROAD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT FROM NRN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION
AND LOCATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL OVERCOME LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS
TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS LONG-LIVED STORMS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF WARM
CONVEYOR CONVECTIVE PLUME. THIS INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
BOOST STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FROM GA TO THE CAROLINAS.
INTENSE MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT WILL FURTHER AID
STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONG-TRACK TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL NEAR
THIS FEATURE.
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PNHDL AND SRN GA/NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS 70-80KT MID LEVEL
JET STREAK AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH SPREAD EAST ACROSS THESE
AREAS.
...CNTRL/SRN CA...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POWERFUL 130-150KT JET CORE SPREADING SEWD FROM CNTRL TO SRN CA.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND LEAD TO LOW
TOPPED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS. HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER
IN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
STRONG DYNAMICS AND INTENSE SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT IS WARRANTED. PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IF
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES.
..CARBIN.. 01/01/2006
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#neversummer
-
Skywatch_NC
- Category 5
- Posts: 10949
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 9:31 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC
- Contact:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
253 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-021000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...
NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...
RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...
ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
253 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH INCLUDES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTH INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION WILL LIFT NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THIS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST ALONG...SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBEMARLE...TO SANFORD...RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THOSE AREAS WHICH
MIGHT EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER.
STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER EVENT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
253 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-021000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...
NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...
RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...
ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
253 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH INCLUDES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTH INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION WILL LIFT NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THIS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST ALONG...SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBEMARLE...TO SANFORD...RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THOSE AREAS WHICH
MIGHT EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER.
STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER EVENT.
Last edited by Skywatch_NC on Sun Jan 01, 2006 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38091
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
I've never seen wording like this from FFC:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021000-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...SWAINSBORO...COLUMBUS...
WARNER ROBINS...DUBLIN...LUMPKIN...AMERICUS...CORDELE...VIDALIA
330 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY...
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE STRONG. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ALSO KNOWN AS
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND SOMETIMES SPAWN TORNADOES.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE URGED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS. REVIEW YOUR SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY PLAN FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY. KNOW WHERE TO
GO WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED OR A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021000-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...SWAINSBORO...COLUMBUS...
WARNER ROBINS...DUBLIN...LUMPKIN...AMERICUS...CORDELE...VIDALIA
330 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY...
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE STRONG. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ALSO KNOWN AS
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND SOMETIMES SPAWN TORNADOES.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE URGED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS. REVIEW YOUR SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY PLAN FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY. KNOW WHERE TO
GO WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED OR A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.
0 likes
#neversummer
Brent wrote:I've never seen wording like this from FFC:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021000-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...SWAINSBORO...COLUMBUS...
WARNER ROBINS...DUBLIN...LUMPKIN...AMERICUS...CORDELE...VIDALIA
330 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY...
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE STRONG. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ALSO KNOWN AS
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND SOMETIMES SPAWN TORNADOES.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE URGED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS. REVIEW YOUR SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY PLAN FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY. KNOW WHERE TO
GO WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED OR A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.
I certainly haven't seen anything like that from FFC on New Year's Day...(and my area is included in this SWS). Oh joy....I'm so looking forward to this. (not).
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wxmann_91 wrote:Indications are a wedge may set up in northeastern Georgia and western North Carolina. Yes, it may mitigate severe potential in those areas but where that cool air meets the warm moist air from the Gulf - which in this case is right over the Atlanta metro area - winds back locally and convergence is maximized. This means if any strong tornado will occur, it will occur there.
Very comforting (not). (note my location).
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wxmann_91 wrote:The trend for the latest runs is for the low to be stronger and more backing of the winds at the sfc - not good. Active day tomorrow.
We're in a good location in terms of advance warning (the CD siren is at the school that butts up to my property), so we can hear warnings even if we're in a dead slumber in the middle of the night. The siren's so loud it actually rattles our sliding glass door when it rotates directly towards our house.
Unfortunately, we're also right where several Tornadoes in the last 10 years have skipped over us....or briefly touched down. A mini "tornado alley" if you will.
So...we'll just be on our guard and know what to do if we need to take cover. That's about all we can do. At least we know the possibility exists for severe development this far in advance. Right?
Jen
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38091
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Birmingham AFD:
THE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED STORM SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN KANSAS AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO FIRE LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BASIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND WILL BE TO THE
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA LINE BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER 6 AM MONDAY THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG
AND EAST OF A CENTRE...TO SYLACAUGA...TO A WETUMPKA LINE...AND A
SLIGHT RISK WEST TO THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THE MAIN WEATHER WILL HAVE ENDED BY TOMORROW MORNING LEAVING ONLY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A VERY
IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE...THE BEST LOCATION AT THIS TIME WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
THE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED STORM SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN KANSAS AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO FIRE LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BASIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND WILL BE TO THE
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA LINE BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER 6 AM MONDAY THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG
AND EAST OF A CENTRE...TO SYLACAUGA...TO A WETUMPKA LINE...AND A
SLIGHT RISK WEST TO THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THE MAIN WEATHER WILL HAVE ENDED BY TOMORROW MORNING LEAVING ONLY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A VERY
IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE...THE BEST LOCATION AT THIS TIME WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38091
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
JenyEliza wrote:Brent wrote:I'm expecting a high risk over portions of Eastern AL and GA on the Day 1 outlook tonight... Bullseye looks to be the I-20 corridor from Anniston to east of Atlanta.
Thanks Brent....you know where I am.
I'm about an hour south of I-20... and of Anniston.
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#neversummer
-
wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Dr. Greg Forbes on TWC said this was going to be "one of those rare big outbreaks - and in early January". 
Dewpoints and moisture right now much more than what the NAM was originally forecasting - another bad sign.
Some SPS's, HWO's and AFD's:
Dewpoints and moisture right now much more than what the NAM was originally forecasting - another bad sign.
Some SPS's, HWO's and AFD's:
FFC SPS wrote:...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY...
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST TODAY. AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO
GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR RISE TO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE STRONG. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ALSO KNOWN AS
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND SOMETIMES SPAWN TORNADOES.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE URGED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS. REVIEW YOUR SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY PLAN FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY. KNOW WHERE TO
GO WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED OR A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.
GSP SPS wrote:...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALISTS AT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN
NORMAN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE AREA FORMING OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...COULD OCCUR WITH THAT
PART OF THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT A LARGE
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN PART OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAST MOVING...AND LONG TRACK
SUPERCELL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THE SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IN RESPONSE TO
THE VERY STRONG WIND ENERGY ALOFT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE IF THESE STORMS FULLY
DEVELOP AND REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY. STRONG AND DAMAGING TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THAT HAPPENS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE SECOND WAVE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...TO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN NORTH CAROLINA.
IF THE INITIAL AREA OF RAINFALL BECOMES WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT...THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE THE SECOND PART OF THE SYSTEM
COULD BE MUCH WEAKER BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING AND COOLING
EFFECTS OF THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT IF THAT OCCURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OF THE WORST
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS IN THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA HAVE
OCCURRED WHEN A MORNING EPISODE PRECEDED THE MAIN ACTION LATER IN
THE DAY. IN THOSE CASES...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WARMED THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY TO CAUSE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
WHICH WAY THIS CASE MAY GO.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS HAVE BEEN RARE IN THE EARLY WINTER PERIOD
FROM DECEMBER THROUGH JANUARY. HOWEVER...IT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE.
IN DECEMBER 1973 A TORNADO OUTBREAK PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADOES IN
THE PIEDMONT. IN JANUARY 1998...A STRONG TORNADO HIT EASLEY SOUTH
CAROLINA. AND IN 2004...A DAMAGING TORNADO HIT LAURENS SOUTH
CAROLINA IN JANUARY. DAMAGING HAILSTORMS AFFECTED THE AREA FROM ELBERTON
GEORGIA TO GREENWOOD SOUTH CAROLINA JUST LAST MONTH.
YOU SHOULD CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...OR YOUR
FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. A SEPARATE
BULLETIN OF SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES WILL BE TRANSMITTED THIS EVENING.
COMMUNICATORS SHOULD ENSURE THAT ALL COUNTY AND CITY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE PROPERLY BRIEFED ON THIS STATEMENT.
TLH HWO wrote:...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MONDAY...
.DAY ONE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING
UNTIL 11 AM EDT (10 AM CDT). THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COAST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE AREA MOST
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHERE THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. THE SEVERE THREAT AREA WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. RESIDENTS...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE VERY
COLD BEHIND THIS FRONT AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH
RAIN IS EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE DEEP SOUTH AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. IT IS STILL EARLY...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS
COULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS SEASON SO FAR...AND A HARD FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS TODAY...AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED ON MONDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.
TLH AFD wrote:.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING-WEDNESDAY)
AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER
NORTH. COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS MOS POP
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING THE WETTEST AND THE NAM AND NGM
BEING RATHER DRY AND WE HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS. LATEST RUNS
SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING FASTER THAN PREV RUNS.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE CONVECTION EARLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. BUT THEN DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS
ABOVE LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE MOVES E/SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THEN MANY FAVORABLE FACTORS EXIST FOR A SEVERE WX OUTBREAK. THESE
INCLUDE...AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S... COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...AMPLE MID LEVEL PUNCH OF DRY AIR EWD AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPES EXCEEDING 1300J/KG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CWA...50KT LOW LEVEL JET AND 80KT H5 JET AND 110 KT H3
JETS WILL CONVERGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HELICITIES EXCEEDING
230M2/S2. MODELS ALSO INDICATING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
UPPER JET. AN ABSENCE OF COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
LIMIT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BUT THIS WOULD
AUGMENT THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE SEVERE STORMS. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO SERVE AS BOUNDARY FOCUS..ESPECIALLY WEST OF
APALACHICOLA RIVER.
ALL THE ABOVE SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGE WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMICS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. ALSO...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A SPREAD-OUT LOOKING VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELD SUGGESTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS OPPOSED TO AN MCS OR SQUALL LINE FEATURE.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN ALA/GA ZONES (WHERE MARINE LAYER WILL MIX
OUT). SPC HAS NOW PLACED SE ALA/SW GA AND FL PANHANDLE IN DAY 1
SLIGHT RISK...AND MOST OF CWA IN MODERATE RISK FOR DAY 2. THIS
SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...FOCUSING
ON THE MORNING HOURS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN.
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Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
Looks like we will see LA, AL, and FL panhandle tonight as far as severe weather goes then spreading north and east past midnite and by mid afternoon tommrow we will have powerful storms in GA, FL, and TN, KY. Then by evening Very powerful storms in Southeast Georgia, Southest SC( Thats me!! ) and rest of SC and NC.
) and rest of SC and NC.
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