Accuweather has Moderate chance of Severe weather...

[Tyler]

The SPC may issue a watch soon...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX....WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 162324Z - 170130Z

THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING NRN MEXICO. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH ABOUT 100KT OF FLOW AT 6KM NOTED ON LDB PROFILER AND EWX VWP. THIS VERY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIES ATOP A SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SURGING ESEWD FROM NEAR CLL TO LRD. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS LINE OF FORCING WAS WARM AND MOIST BUT ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS LAVACA... FAYETTE...AND COLORADO COUNTIES. NEW ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FRONT IN DEWITT AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. GIVEN INTENSE MID LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE TO EXHIBIT INCREASING ORGANIZATION... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...SOME LINE SEGMENTS COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IF STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE GULF THROUGH LATE EVENING.
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[Extremeweatherguy]

The SPC may issue a watch soon...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX....WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 162324Z - 170130Z

THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING NRN MEXICO. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH ABOUT 100KT OF FLOW AT 6KM NOTED ON LDB PROFILER AND EWX VWP. THIS VERY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIES ATOP A SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SURGING ESEWD FROM NEAR CLL TO LRD. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS LINE OF FORCING WAS WARM AND MOIST BUT ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS LAVACA... FAYETTE...AND COLORADO COUNTIES. NEW ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FRONT IN DEWITT AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. GIVEN INTENSE MID LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE TO EXHIBIT INCREASING ORGANIZATION... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...SOME LINE SEGMENTS COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IF STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE GULF THROUGH LATE EVENING.
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Yeah a nice broken squall line has set up to the west of town and looks to be strengthening. It is less than an hour away from Houston though, so they better start getting severe quickly. Would not be surprised to see 1 or 2 warnings issued soon along the line. Main threats seem to be localized damaging winds/bowing echos...and may be a gustnado or weak tornado or two. I'm going to go outside and see if I see any lightning to my west yet...

[Extremeweatherguy]

OMG!!! The storm has arrived but with little lightning. But the winds are insane! I would estimate gusts to 50-60mph! I can hear things flying around and stuff...kind of scary because it was so sudden. A metal piece on top of my chimney keeps lifting up and down. I think this line is near severe limits for sure.

ALSO: looking at the radar...looks like the piece of the squall line I am going through was bowing out a little when it got to me. We are also getting very heavy (very needed) rain. As of right now though the winds seem to be calming back to a typical storm strength (may be 30mph gusts), but the rain is getting even heavier. Wow, what a dramatic last ten minutes. It goes from calm, to 50-60mph gusts and heavy rain, to just heavy rain and in about 30 minutes I would bet it is calm again. Typical southern weather.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hooks airport reported a gust to 40mph as the line blew through there, but I would bet it was even stronger where I live because the storm looked even more impressive after it got past Hooks. I still estimate at least 45-55mph gusts here...getting close to severe limits. But the gusts occured over only a 5 minute period and then ended, so it was not a long-term event.

[jasons2k]

Pretty decent squall line pushing through here. Wind gusts to 40 mph, but strangely no lightning at all. Really enjoying this soaking rain.

[TS Zack]

The winds are not because these storms are Severe. Winds are so strong just above the surface that they are mixing down.

These storms are not near Severe Limits. We are lacking Instability to really kick them off. Therefore, this is simply mixing thats why you are getting very strong winds.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah but anytime a line of storms (even if weak) produces wind gusts past 58mph it is considered severe and warnings will be issued. That didn't quite happen tonight, but wind gusts to 40-50 (may be 55)mph did occur.

[CajunMama]

My daughter was flying in from orlando to houston and they had to keep circling because of the weather. Finally they were able to land because they were running low on fuel but all departures were delayed so they had to stay in the plane on the runway being there was a plane still at their gate. She said the plane was shaking really bad with that severe weather there in Houston.

[southerngale]

Nothing severe here. Lots of rain, some of it pretty heavy...wind gusts in the 30's. My cable (and internet) went out, but was back within an hour.