Severe Weather Pot. For S. Fla. Tonight and Tomorrow?

[MiamiensisWx]

I dont expect any severe weather in southern Florida overnight...lapse rates are low and hardly any instability...also, the pattern has been for mainly non-severe storms in florida today. The best severe threat is for hail across MS and AL tonight.

Does this mean that instability in southern Florida has decreased?

[mike815]

for now sortof it will change

[MiamiensisWx]

for now sortof it will change

Yep... I think so! Also, it may just be a fluctuation decrease in instability, which is temporary.

[MiamiensisWx]

The severe thunderstorm warning for Collier County has expired!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
655 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

FLC021-040005-
/O.EXP.KMFL.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-060204T0000Z/
COLLIER FL-
655 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 700 PM EST...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORM WHICH
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING FOR WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 2591 8183 2585 8181 2592 8133 2615 8143

$$

DG

[WaitingForSiren]

Well the storm near Naples looks impressive, maybe some penny size hail, but overall the large amount of moisture and little cool air aloft or instability suggests a significant rain event as opposed to severe weather. Also, the main storm itself is way up in MS, so the storms in florida are along an outflow boundary. Its hard to get severe weather in a setup like this. But again, heavy rain looks likely across south florida, I could see 6 inches some spots including naples especially.

[wxmann_91]

The MCS has stabilized much of central and southern Florida; however, it could strengthen as it heads towards Miami, and new storms could fire ahead of it, as the sun has been out much of the day invof Miami.

Another area of concern is southern AL and GA, and the FL Panhandle, as a strong hail-producing line of storms are moving east. Should these storms get rooted in the boundary layer (which is not happening right now thankfully) these could start producing tornadoes. Otherwise biggest threat with those is large hail.

[mike815]

that will change with the approach of the other system the jet stream will come into play THIS SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND OR
DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING 130+ KT JET FROM THE
GULF OF MEX.

[wxmann_91]

that will change with the approach of the other system the jet stream will come into play THIS SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND OR
DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING 130+ KT JET FROM THE
GULF OF MEX.

It could happen, but the air needs to destabilize.

[mike815]

it will

[mike815]

STRONG ATMOSPHERIC WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING JET STREAM TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
DURING THE NIGHT ENHANCED TURNING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE JET STREAM WILL CREATE A HAZARD FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. OF PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING
STORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
INTENSE RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL.

[WaitingForSiren]

Ive never seen a severe event whereit went from general heavy thunderstorms to a big time tornado outbreak...it just doesnt happen...The storms across MS seem to be weakening and bowing out, so it looks like damaging winds are the best threat with them, and it looks doubtful than any storms will form in southern alabama, so right now this whole event seems to be heavy rain in florida and hail in MS. Typical for february.

[mike815]

this systems are going to clash late tonight and cause some bad weather i think the weather offices know best im just saying

[mike815]

OTHERWISE...REDEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN THROUGH SHIFTS EWD
TONIGHT. IF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN OVERCOME A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION...LINEAR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEST OF WW 30 LATE
THIS EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AND A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT.

[mike815]

SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 30 WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
LIKELY IN THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WW 30 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL. IN
ADDITION...A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL LATER THIS EVENING.

[mike815]

TORNADO WATCH!

[MiamiensisWx]

New strong storms are refiring south of Marco Island and along the edge of the incoming disturbed weather ahead of the front... check out the latest radar image...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[mike815]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 800 PM EST

* AT 731 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR CHERRY LAKE...OR ABOUT NEAR
MADISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
PINETTA BY 740 PM EST...
CLYATTVILLE BY 745 PM EST...
BRIGGSTON BY 750 PM EST...
TWIN LAKES...DASHER...LAKE PARK AND VALDOSTA REGIONAL AIRPORT BY
755 PM EST...
LITTLE MIAMI...INDIANOLA...DELMAR AND MONKS CROSSING BY 800 PM
EST...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

VERY BAD MIGHT BE A REAL TORNADO

[MiamiensisWx]

A new strong cell is about to come ashore near Marco Island...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is a loop...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Tyler]

What is this, April!?