Major tornado outbreak Sunday...the aftermath..

[WaitingForSiren]

The only true tornado outbreaks last november were the 15 and the 27th. The 5th was an isolated event, and the 12th was just a few tornadoes in Iowa that happened to get reported numerous times although it was really only 3 or so tornadoes that were on the ground a while.

None of the events were really major tornado outbreaks either. I would consider march 12 to be a major tornado outbreak, so what I meant was that I have a hard time seeing two major tornado outbreaks in one march, but it IS possible.

[wxmann_91]

The only true tornado outbreaks last november were the 15 and the 27th. The 5th was an isolated event, and the 12th was just a few tornadoes in Iowa that happened to get reported numerous times although it was really only 3 or so tornadoes that were on the ground a while.

None of the events were really major tornado outbreaks either. I would consider march 12 to be a major tornado outbreak, so what I meant was that I have a hard time seeing two major tornado outbreaks in one march, but it IS possible.

I would consider Nov. 6, 12, 15, and 27 major svr wx outbreaks though. I think that was what CrazyC83 was meaning.

[WaitingForSiren]

I dunno if I would consider any of them major severe weather outbreaks, as none of them really had widespread significant severe weather, the most significant was probably the 27th IMO though, especially since it was so underrated.

To me a major severe weather outbreak is one that you will always remember the date to. Like november 10 2002, october 24 2001, may 4 2003, may 21, 22 and 24 2004...and most recently march 12 2006.

[Skywatch_NC]

Now on the map it says after the words: Mainly Day 5... (3-30)...wonder what the 3 means in front of the - and 30...?

Eric

[tornadotony]

Now on the map it says after the words: Mainly Day 5... (3-30)...wonder what the 3 means in front of the - and 30...?

Eric

That's the date. Thursday is 3/30/06.

[Skywatch_NC]

Now on the map it says after the words: Mainly Day 5... (3-30)...wonder what the 3 means in front of the - and 30...?

Eric

That's the date. Thursday is 3/30/06.

Thank you, Tony

[Weatherfreak14]

There as only been a few outbreaks this year. Hopefully we can get some severe weather and some rain for the southeast. Doesent look like any precip here in sc for next 10 days by TWC.

[WaitingForSiren]

Still looks impressive...maybe further north now too. I might be able to get in on the action Thursday.

[tornadotony]

The 18z GFS makes me extremely concerned about the Red River Valley north to Tulsa and south to Tyler Thursday. LIs of down to -6 and very intense speed and directional shear should lead to supercellular development along the warm front. At this time, it appears as though strong to violent tornadoes may be possible with these supercells.

[wxmann_91]

The 18z GFS makes me extremely concerned about the Red River Valley north to Tulsa and south to Tyler Thursday. LIs of down to -6 and very intense speed and directional shear should lead to supercellular development along the warm front. At this time, it appears as though strong to violent tornadoes may be possible with these supercells.

IMO deep-layer shear looks too unidirectional for my liking. 18Z GFS (FWIW) hints at squall line. However, sups could develop ahead of the line, and the trough does look like 11/22/92 in some ways.

[NWIASpotter]

Models still don't have a great handle on the location at least; looks like anywhere from northern Iowa to southern Kansas could have the low right on them. I believe that we could be looking at the low topped supercells with this type of setup. You are right on the unidirectional shear that is pretty much everywhere, except if you go right along the low pressure system. An area of enhanced shear and maybe some pooling could create an environment a little more favorable...

Something to watch as the SPC should slowly shrink down the severe weather area as the event nears and the better idea of the low should occur.

[WaitingForSiren]

I think Tulsa and Tyler are too far south, ESPECIALLY Tyler. This system seems like a more northern one...with a minimal chance of a major tornadic outbreak due to the northward low. I think the best area for tornadoes will be eastern kansas north to far southern minnesota.

[wxmann_91]

I also want to emphasize that nothing is set in stone yet, so we cannot yet rule out Tyler and especially Tulsa. After all, this is still several days away and the main part of the storm has yet to enter our RAOB network (it will on Tuesday as it crashes ashore and drenches us with inches of rain - love this pattern change!).

FWIW, an earlier DVN AFD mentioned the upcoming event as a "synoptically evident day which only occurs about five times a year". And, with the low trending back south (for now), this still bears watching.

Of course, the current models are and have been indicating for several runs of problems with moisture return and unidirectional wind profiles.

[Skywatch_NC]

There as only been a few outbreaks this year. Hopefully we can get some severe weather and some rain for the southeast. Doesent look like any precip here in sc for next 10 days by TWC.

I hear ya...I'm beginning to think that the Southeast may have to wait until at least early to mid April before a severe threat or just some good garden-variety t-storms and rainfall.

[wxmann_91]

There as only been a few outbreaks this year. Hopefully we can get some severe weather and some rain for the southeast. Doesent look like any precip here in sc for next 10 days by TWC.

I hear ya...I'm beginning to think that the Southeast may have to wait until at least early to mid April before a severe threat or just some good garden-variety t-storms and rainfall.

La Nina favors a more northern storm track; however, big outbreaks have been known to occur during La Nina years, and given the drought in the Southern Plains, if, let's say, there were a 5/3/99 or 4/3/74 type event, you would have a higher likelihood of svr than usual. Northeastern U.S. and OH & TN Vllys too IMO.

[conestogo_flood]

Northeastern... such as southern Ontario?!

[wxmann_91]

Northeastern... such as southern Ontario?!

I don't know, but with an active northern branch of the jet stream, Canada is certainly at a heightened risk of severe wx this year.

[WaitingForSiren]

12z gfs and NAM goth have this thing further south than I would expect...and HPC was still showing this storm way further north into the dakotas. If it does go further north, then severe storms are likely over a large area that was also affected by march 12'ths outbreak. Hmm...I hope it goes north, so I can get in on some thunderstorms too!

[CrazyC83]

Northeastern... such as southern Ontario?!

The northern part of Northeastern would be more like eastern Ontario and Quebec...so absolutely a great risk!

[WaitingForSiren]

The latest HPC forecast is AMAZING for an early season severe weather outbreak here in MN.





Looks like my area might be under the gun thursday afternoon, especially if at least mid 50s dews can nudge into MN and WI. Otherwise, the dynmanics are the best you could ask for for severe weather in MN and WI. Some will argue with me saying moisture will be a problem or something, but given the strength of the storm and the warmth ahead of it...I think moisture will surge north rapidly given the strong dynamics, and that dry line will punch very very north increasing potential. I dont wanna jump the gun, but this thing reminds me of march 29 1998.