Severe Weather possible May 10 - MDT risk issued

[CrazyC83]

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH OF MONROE
LOUISIANA TO 90 MILES WEST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 330...WW 331...WW
332...WW 333...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS E TX AND NW LA.
THE 17Z SHV SOUNDING SHOWS THAT LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS WEAKENING THE
CAP...AND THAT INSTABILITY IS STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR. WIND
PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAY FAVOR
MANY STORM INTERACTIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...AS
WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR BEFORE
CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO MORE OF A LINE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.


...THOMPSON

[Bunkertor]

Tornado warning at 2 p.m. is early, isn´t it ?

[CrazyC83]

Not really, the last BIG outbreak on April 7 had the first warning before noon...

[Bunkertor]

Not really, the last BIG outbreak on April 7 had the first warning before noon...

OK, yesterday it went on later - what can that "relative" early start mean for today ?

[CrazyC83]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
129 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN KEMPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES MERIDIAN STATION

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 129 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MERIDIAN
STATION...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
7 MILES SOUTH OF PORTERVILLE BY 135 PM CDT...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3268 8875 3248 8875 3247 8841 3274 8837

$$

EEC

The early start doesn't really mean a whole lot at this point, as this is not the main line...

[CrazyC83]

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DOTHAN ALABAMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 330...WW 331...WW
332...WW 333...WW 334...

DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE AS CLOUDS
CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION OVER SRN AL. CONTINUED
SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION /ALONG AND N OF A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN AL/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-3000
J/KG/...0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...AND LOW 70 DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...AND AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...THOMPSON

[6SpeedTA95]

Things are beginning to pickup now, however, discreet cell development still hasn't begun.

[6SpeedTA95]

Initiation beginning over Lousiana and far East Texas. These storms will probably be the storms that develope into some severe supercells. LI's and Cape values in the area are really supportive of supercell development. LFC's and LCL's are also looking rip over North LA.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a squall line with breakaway supercells...those could be the tornadic areas...

[Extremeweatherguy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101934Z - 102130Z

SVR TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT
FROM SERN TX INTO THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTH TX. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ONE
OR MORE WW/S BY 21Z.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT
FROM JUST NORTH OF HOUSTON SWWD ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
MLCAPES ABOVE 5000 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINING. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT /WHICH IS 2 KM DEEP PER RECENT GRK VWP DATA/ SHOULD
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW /30 KTS/ AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION AND A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT. A WW
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY.

FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST/LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS AS WELL. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
CAP THAN FURTHER NORTH /PER THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING/ MAY DELAY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR ANOTHER FEW MORE HRS...UNTIL THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. AGAIN THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT
QUICKLY AFTER ANY STORM INITIATION. SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST THAT THE WIND THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN
THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

31169486 29999676 28899810 27119913 26669912 26339880
26009808 26179791 26959748 28299676 29379478

[6SpeedTA95]

Looks like a squall line with breakaway supercells...those could be the tornadic areas...

Yeah, that line kinda just popped over TX/LA and these cells went up quick in central LA and are now kinda stagnant.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A nasty line of storms looks to be developing west of Houston right now! I guess this means that the cap has broken! Also, these storms went from nothing to nearly severe (probably will become severe soon) in less than an hour. They literally just popped up out of nowhere!

[6SpeedTA95]

poop, that MESO it texas is abit unexpected. Must be some sort of a gulf based boundary.

[6SpeedTA95]

A nasty line of storms looks to be developing west of Houston right now! I guess this means that the cap has broken! Also, these storms went from nothing to nearly severe (probably will become severe soon) in less than an hour. They literally just popped up out of nowhere!

Yes sir, been watching now for about 30 mins, going up fast.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I am starting to find it! It is the cold front that is running in contact with the humid Gulf air...

[6SpeedTA95]

Capes at 5000 on the coastal plain in texas...wow...houston heads up you could get some serious weather.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-201-239-291-321-339-373-407-455-471-
473-481-110300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0336.060510T1955Z-060511T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BRAZORIA CHAMBERS
COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON
HARRIS JACKSON LIBERTY
MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY POLK
SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER
WALLER WHARTON
$$

[Extremeweatherguy]

Capes at 5000 on the coastal plain in texas...wow...houston heads up you could get some serious weather.

Yeah I was noticing that too. We are now under a Svr. T-storm watch. Things could get interesting over the next few hours..

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow that line to the west is now starting to get a hook in it. Wouldn't be surprised if a few isolated tornadoes try to form.

[Bunkertor]

I just can´t follow.

On that map, there is nothing unusual visible: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_tab.php

What area are you talking about ?

What are capes ?

Regards

Eike