Severe weather outbreak possible Wed. Great Lakes

[conestogo_flood]

Just what I thought, a very powerful line of storms is forming or has formed in the Great Lakes and is heading our way right now. Local 4 news (WDIV from Detroit) weather radars and Titan4D shows that these are very deep thunderstorms with intense lightning. The live lightning tracker he used showed rapid lighting strikes in the storms. Wow, Southern Ontario really is going to be punched tonight if the line says alive. I'm getting ready for this one just in case.

The weather network guy currently on says it's a bow echo.

Chris Scott knows best. He is the only on air meteorologist at the Weather Network. I'm excited.

[Cyclenall]

Chris Scott knows best. He is the only on air meteorologist at the Weather Network. I'm excited.

Yep, Chris is always the best for this type of weather. It's moving fast, I would say it's going to make landfall in 17 minutes. I can't wait to see what this brings. All I hope is nothing gets to bad and the power doesn't go out for a long time!

[Cyclenall]

Here is a pic I put together. *This is not the most current image of the squall line*

[conestogo_flood]

It looks like it is weakening some, or less intense. But the new warning update just came out.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
SQUALL LINE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALONG A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. THE FRONT IS
SPRAWLED OVER THE NORTHERN BRUCE PENINSULA EASTWARD ACROSS ALGONQUIN
PAK.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MADE LANDFALL ALONG SAUBLE BEACH AND
SOUTHAMPTON SHORELINE NEAR 6.30 PM. WIND GUSTS OF 93 KM/H WERE
OBSERVED AT WIARTON AIRPORT. THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE INLAND AT 90 KM/H.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER GEORGIAN BAY AND WILL
MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 7 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.

[Cyclenall]

I see dark clouds in the distence and it's coming fairly fast so I'm going to be offline for maybe hours starting in 5-10 minutes. Looks bad.

[conestogo_flood]

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 7:16 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 2 AUGUST 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY
=NEW= WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY
=NEW= STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY
=NEW= LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY
=NEW= MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY
=NEW= ORANGEVILLE - GRAND VALLEY - SOUTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY
=NEW= SHELBURNE - MANSFIELD - NORTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY
=NEW= INNISFIL - NEW TECUMSETH - ANGUS
=NEW= ORILLIA - LAGOON CITY - WASHAGO
=NEW= FENELON FALLS - BALSAM LAKE PARK - NORTHERN KAWARTHA LAKES
=NEW= APSLEY - WOODVIEW - NORTHERN PETERBOROUGH COUNTY
=NEW= KALADAR - BANNOCKBURN - BON ECHO PARK
=NEW= BANCROFT - HASTINGS HIGHLANDS - DENBIGH
=NEW= BARRY'S BAY - KILLALOE
SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY
HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY
OWEN SOUND - BLUE MOUNTAINS - NORTHERN GREY COUNTY
BARRIE - COLLINGWOOD - HILLSDALE
MIDLAND - COLDWATER - ORR LAKE
PORT CARLING - PORT SEVERN
BRACEBRIDGE - GRAVENHURST
TOWN OF PARRY SOUND - ROSSEAU - KILLBEAR PARK
HUNTSVILLE - BAYSVILLE
HALIBURTON - MINDEN - SOUTHERN HALIBURTON COUNTY
OXTONGUE LAKE - FORT IRWIN - NORTHERN HALIBURTON COUNTY.

SQUALL LINE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALONG A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. THE FRONT IS
SPRAWLED OVER THE NORTHERN BRUCE PENINSULA EASTWARD ACROSS
ALGONQUIN PAK.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MADE LANDFALL ALONG SAUBLE BEACH AND
SOUTHAMPTON SHORELINE NEAR 6.30 PM. WIND GUSTS OF 93 KM/H WERE
OBSERVED AT WIARTON AIRPORT. THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE INLAND AT 90 KM/H.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER GEORGIAN BAY AND
MOVED ONSHORE NEAR 7 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO 120 KM/H. BOATS WERE BLOWN ONSHORE AND
TREES WERE DOWNED.

THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS LARGE SQUALL LINE IS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD AT 50 KM/H ALONG THE HURON LAKE SHORE AND WILL REACH
GODERICH WITH DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 8 PM.

DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

REMEMBER SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE TORNADOES..LISTEN
FOR UPDATED WARNINGS. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIO RECOMMENDS
TAKING COVER IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN11 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
CITY OF TORONTO
OXFORD - BRANT
ST. CATHARINES - GRIMSBY - NORTHERN NIAGARA REGION
CITY OF HAMILTON
HALTON - PEEL
YORK - DURHAM
HURON - PERTH
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
GREY - BRUCE
BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
CITY OF OTTAWA
GATINEAU
PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA - HUNTSVILLE
HALIBURTON
RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY.

SQUALL LINES THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED
STATEMENTS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE
SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS ENDED FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ENDED FOR:
BRUCE PENINSULA - SAUBLE BEACH - TOBERMORY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
THE HOT..HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COOL FRONT SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUCE
PENINSULA WILL SLUMP VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER MICHIGAN WEST OF LAKE
HURON THIS AFTERNOON. SQUALL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
RACE EASTWARD ALONG THE COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

[CrazyC83]

THIS IS A VERY HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION..TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS AS ADVISED. MOST OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
BE IMPACTED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE SQUALL LINE TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

The language would be the EC equivalent of a PDS watch...I am SHOCKED the SPC has not gone MDT for New York and northwestern New England...

[CrazyC83]

They are also moving at 55 mph...

[marubozo]

Storms are starting to get close. They extended the watch in michigan to the south a bit. The cloud towers just blocked out the sunlight and I can see the tops to the north. Looks like that cell in the photo has just been issued a warning.

Picture due north from my deck:


my location on visible satellite (smudged red x):

[CrazyC83]

There are two clear squall lines now...

[Cyclenall]

I'm back on and wow, that was quite the storm. It wasn't crazy or anything but the storm lasted 1.5 hours and the clouds that were coming toward me were just freaky as heck. They came so fast and then there are like different levels of clouds that are going at different speeds. Very sweet.

There was also white clouds with black clouds together moving fast and there was nothing for like 13 minutes or longer of these nasty clouds that looked like all hell was going to break loose but didn't do anything.

More later. Oh and Ottawa is under a tornado warning!!

[CrazyC83]

Yep, eastern Ontario has several supercells reminiscent of Tennessee in April in my view...

[CrazyC83]

105
WFCN11 CWTO 030112
TORNADO WARNING
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:12 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 2 AUGUST 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= OTTAWA NORTH - KANATA - ORLEANS
=NEW= OTTAWA SOUTH - RICHMOND - METCALFE
=NEW= GATINEAU
BANCROFT - HASTINGS HIGHLANDS - DENBIGH
PLEVNA - SHARBOT LAKE - WESTERN LANARK COUNTY
SMITHS FALLS - PERTH - EASTERN LANARK COUNTY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR:
OTTAWA NORTH - KANATA - ORLEANS
OTTAWA SOUTH - RICHMOND - METCALFE
GATINEAU.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS ARE LOCATED IN THE ABOVE NOTED REGIONS.
DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS STRONG TORNADIC SIGNATURES ON EACH OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.
ONE OF THE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADO IS MOVING TOWARDS THE CITY
OF OTTAWA AND IS EXPECTED THERE NEAR 9:30.

THIS IS A WARNING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN11 CWTO
BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.

END/3/CHADWICK/ROS

[CrazyC83]

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
LAKE ONTARIO

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 910 PM
UNTIL 200 AM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF WATERTOWN NEW YORK TO 35 MILES EAST OF MONTPELIER
VERMONT. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 671. WATCH NUMBER 671 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 910 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 673...WW 674...WW
675...WW 676...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO WILL RACE EASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY AND MUCH OF VT TONIGHT.
STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS...AND THREAT MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL TEND
TO WEAKEN STORMS OVER VT LATER TONIGHT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27045.


...HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 030108
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 677 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC019-031-033-035-041-043-045-049-053-065-067-075-089-091-113-
115-030600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0677.060803T0110Z-060803T0600Z/

NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLINTON ESSEX FRANKLIN
FULTON HAMILTON HERKIMER
JEFFERSON LEWIS MADISON
ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO
SARATOGA ST. LAWRENCE WARREN
WASHINGTON


VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-030600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0677.060803T0110Z-060803T0600Z/

VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADDISON CALEDONIA CHITTENDEN
ESSEX FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE
LAMOILLE ORANGE ORLEANS
RUTLAND WASHINGTON WINDSOR


LOZ044-045-064-065-SLZ022-024-030600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0677.060803T0110Z-060803T0600Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER

LAKE ONTARIO/SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER

LAKE ONTARIO/MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5 NM
OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY

ATTN...WFO...BTV...BUF...ALY...BGM...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW7
WW 677 SEVERE TSTM NY VT LO 030110Z - 030600Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30WNW ART/WATERTOWN NY/ - 35E MPV/MONTPELIER VT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /63NNW SYR - 31E MPV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045.

REPLACES WW 671..MA NH NY VT

LAT...LON 45027658 45067184 43337184 43297658

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.


Watch 677 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

(should be a PDS watch in my opinion)

[marubozo]

looks like one of the storms headed my way is showing as a mesocyclone on radar with decent size hail. Looks like it will move just to my north (the X in cass county). Could get exciting here in the next hour

[WindRunner]

It could have easily been a PDS watch, but I don't think it's quite warranted. There have been worse bows/squall lines moving through the east recently, and this one (though extremely large) just doesn't quite look/seem as bad as some of the others.

[WindRunner]

Although with this kind of wording in the outlook, it certainly sounds like it should be PDS. It also seems like they should have the slight covering more of western NY, down off of Erie, but that's JMHO.

Code: Select all

...NY/VT...
   PER COORDINATION WITH ENVIRONMENT CANADA AND REVIEW OF OBSERVATIONAL
   DATA FROM SRN/SWRN ONTARIO...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND WAS ACCOMPANYING
   STORMS NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING. THIS LINEAR MCS
   WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STRONG LOW
   LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
   FEEDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL WAVE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
   THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES AND INTO NY AND PARTS OF NEW
   ENGLAND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM BUF AND ALY
   DEPICTED RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT
   MOISTURE WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUSTAIN SEVERE STORMS.
   OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A SEVERE MCS
   WITH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS MOVING ACROSS
   UPSTATE NY AND PARTS OF VT INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.


[CrazyC83]

Northern New York should be in a MDT in my opinion unless they think it will weaken substantially...

[Cyclenall]

You don't see this type of squall line thunderstorms everyday:

Link: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full.php

Amazing.

[CrazyC83]

That is over 700 miles long...I wonder if it will hook up with the cells in Kansas and Missouri?