Tornado outbreak February 28-March 2, 20 dead, EF4 in Kansas

[conestogo_flood]

Be safe everyone, turn on your weather radios, tell friends and family and listen for the sirens.

[Brent]

OMG!

New Day 2:

"OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS -- INCLUDING CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES -- WILL AFFECT PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN
CONUS. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE MODE
REMAIN ATTM...PRECLUDING HIGH PROBABILITIES THIS SOON. HOWEVER...AN
UPGRADE OF SOME PORTION OF CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA IS POSSIBLE IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS VALID FOR THIS PERIOD. "



HUGE Moderate Risk! I have NEVER seen it so big.



and this...

[CrazyC83]

Can anyone say Super Outbreak II???

At about 5 pm Eastern I will have a new update (when I get home). Day 1 upgrade to HIGH, Day 2 upgrade to EXT.

This is one of the scariest forecasts I have ever seen!!! Even the Day 2 HIGH on 04/06/06 didn't have a MDT that large!!!

[JonathanBelles]

i might actually get in on the act a little this time! Im expecting that mdt risk to be upgraded to a high risk.

[Weatherfreak14]

OMG, this is soo scary and i though sundays outbreak in sc was scary enough

[icicle]

Holy God.

[fwbbreeze]

looks like the western Florida Panhandle might be under the gun!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0

LONG TERM: BY 12Z THU DEEP LOW IS GENERALLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN MO WITH DEEP UPPER TROF FURTHER WEST EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL TX. TO THE SOUTH A BROAD 45 TO 50 KT H8 JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF MS...AL...GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS FROM 12Z THU TO 06Z FRI WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WAS ALSO NOTED BY THE GFS AND NAM WITH HELICITIES UP
TO 400 M2/S2 OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. DUE TO THE TIMING WITH THIS PATTERN AND HIGHER DEWPTS NEAR THE SFC...SFC BASED CAPES COULD NEAR OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA BY AROUND 12Z THU CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THIS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA SHIFTING OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY NOT AS STRONG WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS SE MS EARLY THU MORNING. WITH THIS SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A LARGE PART OF THE SE CONUS IN A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK VALID FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI. AS A RESULT PEOPLE LIVING IN THE SE MS...SW AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE SHOULD STAY ABREAST WITH THIS RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING. BY FRI MORNING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY 12Z SAT. SFC GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE SUN INTO MON AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWFA AND SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DRY SPELL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEXMOS FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED PDS./32

fwbbreeze

[CrazyC83]

For whoever lives in that area, here are some suggestions:

1) If you don't have enough water, food and other essentials for at least 3 days, you should get them now and then store them somewhere that is well-protected.

2) If you aren't up to speed on where to go when a tornado threatens, practice now!

3) Have your weather radio ready with brand new batteries, you could need it!

4) If you have a basement, you should sleep there tonight if the threat is overnight (western areas of the threat + tonight's risk area). If you live in a mobile home, consider going to a friend's house or a motel tonight, with your weather radio and essentials. Either way, make sure it is at your bedside and on!

[Weatherfreak14]

if there is a high risk issued i think it will be for AL,MS,GA,TN, and SC.

[Janie2006]

It appears I may not be as fortunate as I was over the past weekend. This system may be more potent than the last.

[conestogo_flood]

This is unbelievable. I was right yesterday when I said I had a bad feeling about this.

[Weatherfreak14]

this looks very very bad.

[brunota2003]

Well, I cant say much...speechless. I knew it was going to look worse this afternoon, but not this bad. Looks like I'll be in on the action thursday night...when mom gets home, I'm going to bug her, I need a new NOAA Wx Radio to replace my aging one. I hope if people in the affected areas do not have one, they look into buying one ASAP! I also will bump up and link to my thread on them.
EDIT: here is the link - http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=92789

[conestogo_flood]

If I was to leave on a chase for this storm? Where should I go in the northern parts of this system?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is looking very bad for the midwest and southeast as well as parts of tornado alley.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wait is the Biggest Threat on Late Thursday or Friday??? Just Need to Know for SE and Florida?

[GeneratorPower]

If I was to leave on a chase for this storm? Where should I go in the northern parts of this system?

If you have to ask that question you probably have no business chasing a storm and putting yourself in the middle of it. Just my $0.02 in case you are actually serious about chasing stuff.

[CrazyC83]

Especially considering there could easily be some violent tornadoes in this...

[icicle]

It looks like I won't have to go far, not far at all.

[CrazyC83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the SPC and NWS products.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION!!!

With a bust appearing far less likely now, there has never been a wild prediction like this before. I am pretty confident that we will see a major, if not historic, tornado outbreak starting tonight, but primarily tomorrow. If you aren't prepared and don't know what to do if tornadoes hit, now is the time to prepare! Lives could depend on it!

The severe weather should begin this evening, but the real action will start around midnight I think. The small High Risk area shows where the most severe weather I think will be. The area remains farther west than the SPC prediction overall as the endpoint is 0800Z. The fact that any tornadoes that form will take place overnight make them very dangerous. Some of them could be strong, and isolated violent tornadoes are not out of the question either. Large hail is also likely, along with damaging winds.



Tomorrow is where everything goes wild. This is the most extreme prediction I have ever made on Day 2. It is likely we will see swarm after swarm of severe weather of all types and could be one day to remember. There is a chance (not a guarantee by any means) this could approach April 3, 1974. Violent tornadoes, very large hail and destructive straight-line winds are all possible. The maximum risk appears to be in the "Dixie Alley" region from the Missouri Bootheel to central Georgia, but a significant risk exists for most of the southern United States up into the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. Having a weather radio handy can be a lifesaver, and other preparations should be taken now!