-Springfield, MO Tornado Outbreak, Miss Valley/G'Lakes

[2 Seam Fastball]

What does this mean for the northern suburbs of nyc? Could we have a snowy, dry or wet remaning winter?

[Ed Mahmoud]

What does this mean for the northern suburbs of nyc? Could we have a snowy, dry or wet remaning winter?

See DonaldSutherland1's thread on the upcoming heat,but notice 10ºC 850 mb isotherm North of NYC next week.


Warm.

[CrazyC83]

This January has 1999 similarities written all over it...

[Ed Mahmoud]

This January has 1999 similarities written all over it...

The year began with a tornado outbreak on Jan. 1 and 2, with 26 tornadoes in Texas and Louisiana that caused one death. On Jan. 17, 25 tornadoes killed eight people in Arkansas, Tennessee and Missouri. Full story. Four days later, six people died as 104 tornadoes struck Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee on Jan. 21 and 22, including the area around the Governor's Mansion in Little Rock, Ark.

Link

[HarlequinBoy]

This January has 1999 similarities written all over it...

I lived in Arkansas at the time and it seemed like every half hour from about 4 PM onward January 21 the tornado sirens would go off. I ended up sleeping in a hallway.. I was 8 at the time though, lol.

[RL3AO]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CST THU JAN 03 2008

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS REGARDING
TIMING AND DETAILS OF EJECTING SHORTWAVES EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION. DESPITE GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH
DAY4...SUNDAY...ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH QUICKER WITH EWD MOVEMENT OF
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY BY DAY6. EVEN SO...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK REGION FOR
SCATTERED ROBUST...POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 01/03/2008

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS showing better instability ahead of front than previous runs, over 1000 Joules/Kg in parts of Texas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Morning run of the DGEX shows sufficient lifted indices for t-storms and a decent LLJ.

.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe even a repeat of the January 1967 outbreak is in store? (F4 in St. Louis, F3 as far north as Wisconsin)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Morning run of the DGEX shows sufficient lifted indices for t-storms and a decent LLJ.

.

That is the problem of using the URL in an image. I had an Image Shack acoount once, no idea what my p-word is...


Trying something in the URL of the image...

[HarlequinBoy]

Maybe even a repeat of the January 1967 outbreak is in store? (F4 in St. Louis, F3 as far north as Wisconsin)

I had to Wiki that one, I was unfamiliar with it. That's pretty amazing.

[RL3AO]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2008

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
04/00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4...
MONDAY...WITH THE TRACK OF A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN NEWD
ACROSS OK/KS TO IA/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE
ADVECTION/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO MO AS AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM SWRN KS INTO IA BY 12Z TUESDAY.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FOR SEVERE
TSTMS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE ARKLATEX TO SRN MO MONDAY NIGHT.

DURING DAY 5...TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SRN EXTENT OF THE DAY 4 TROUGH AS
IT MOVES EWD ACROSS E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH SYSTEM REACHING CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH UPPER SYSTEM...
THIS OUTLOOK WILL NOT INCLUDE A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR DAY
5.

..PETERS.. 01/04/2008

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS seems to suggest Monday will be the active day.



Precip fields seem to indicate capping may be too strong for San Antonio and Houston areas to get much severe.

Strength of the LLJ suggests the Arklatex area will be favored. 60 knot LLJ is nothing to sneeze at. The Utah U met site that I usually use, because the URLs contain a time/date stamp, is messing up, I suspect these images will change in a few hours.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not looking as interesting as it did a few days ago...
Snippet from CRP AFD


.

LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT. LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL
SCENARIO WITH WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH PRIOR TO
FROPA MONDAY NIGHT A BIT TOO FAR NORTH (LAST WEEKS GFS HAD THIS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD)...THEN MAINLY DRYING OUT WITH
SOME MINOR MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. CONSIDERING MODEL SHOWING MID LEVEL THETA-E DRYING PRIOR TO
FRONT AND 850MB WINDS WESTERLY BEFORE IT...WILL ONLY MENTION POPS
WITH FRONT GULFMEX AND NORTHEAST AS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A DRY
SCENARIO UNTIL A BETTER RAIN SCENARIO DEVELOPS. PRIOR TO FROPA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAYTIME/NEAR SCA FOR THE MARINE INTERESTS.
SEA FOG ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. GOOD DRYING EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT NOW AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL A BIT MORE THAN BELIEVED
EARLY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT GOOD MOISTURE
LIKELY NOT TO BE BACK BY THEN SO GENERALLY KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT IN
THE GULFMEX FOR NOW (WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DECIDE IF THEY ARE NEEDED).
GFS SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND GFS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC IN MOISTURE RETURN SO FEEL
NO RAIN FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS STILL THE BEST WAY TO GO. BASED ON
LESS MOISTURE...ADJUSTED TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD TO FIT
MORE IN LINE WITH MOS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. CONCERNING THE BIG
WINTER SCENARIO AFTER A WEEK FROM SUNDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER EXTENT
ECMWF BACKING OFF SOME. WE SHALL SEE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z DGEX has storms arriving in SE Texas around morning drive time Tuesday, but, does have total-totals at/slightly above 50, but LIs only slightly lower than -2ºC.

From my AccuWx PPV site...

[CrazyC83]

Still wait and see. I wonder what SPC will do for the Day 3?

[RL3AO]

Still wait and see. I wonder what SPC will do for the Day 3?

I'm sure we will have a slight area

[CrazyC83]

Still wait and see. I wonder what SPC will do for the Day 3?

I'm sure we will have a slight area

Most likely...I'd say 15% from about central Illinois to the Gulf, maybe 30% in the southern inland area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z WRF suggests Houston area may be just a tad too far South, and also shows initiation of storms after dark Monday evening.



Looks like the best shot at severe is around the Arklatex, but positive CAPE, around 250 J/Kg, while darned unimpressive, with sixty or seventy knots of deep layer shear, may be enough to get some strong storms into Missouri.

[RL3AO]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST SAT JAN 05 2008

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE
MID MS VALLEY...

...NERN TX/ERN OK/SERN KS/NRN LA/AR/SRN MO/SRN IL...
05/00Z NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE E/NEWD
PROGRESSION OF A DYNAMIC AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN PLAINS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH
THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARD IL MONDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EWD
MOVEMENT OF ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY...MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE RETURN /UNDERWAY DURING DAY 1
AND 2/ WILL CONTINUE AND SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE MODEST...THE MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000
J/KG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX TO 500 J/KG
NEWD INTO SRN MO/SRN IL.

AT 12Z MONDAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER NRN MO INTO IL WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX INTO MO SHOULD WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD
ACROSS THIS REGION...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS EARLY ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SERN KS/MUCH OF ERN OK AND THEN SWD INTO NERN TX MONDAY
EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH/
SURFACE LOW SPREADS NEWD. A FURTHER INCREASE IN LLJ FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO IL WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS. A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD.

..PETERS.. 01/05/2008