Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

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6SpeedTA95
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Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#201 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:59 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Joe Bastardi goes beyond all our thinking and is predicting Super Outbreak II...

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.a ... 4-07_19:08

That guy is a major alarmist, he's gotten a few things right but you cry wolf 99% of the time, the 3% of the time the wolf shows up you'll probably be right. I wouldn't put much faith in accuweather, remember all the issues their forcasts had last year?
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#202 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:02 pm

But SPC sounds more smooth than accuweather
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Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#203 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:04 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Joe Bastardi goes beyond all our thinking and is predicting Super Outbreak II...

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.a ... 4-07_19:08

That guy is a major alarmist, he's gotten a few things right but you cry wolf 99% of the time, the 3% of the time the wolf shows up you'll probably be right. I wouldn't put much faith in accuweather, remember all the issues their forcasts had last year?


I agree he is an alarmist, and no model or reliable forecast can predict a Super Outbreak 3-4 days in advance, but I do agree a major/historic outbreak is very possible.
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#204 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:06 pm

Day 2 high risk? I say no, but we could get a 12z day 1 high risk which is still pretty rare.
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#205 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:06 pm

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF FRONT
ACROSS NERN TX INTO SWRN AR WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. WITH LITTLE
REMAINING CINH...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. 40-50KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELLULAR AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH WIND
DAMAGE MORE LIKELY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HALES


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF FRONT
ACROSS NERN TX INTO SWRN AR WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. WITH LITTLE
REMAINING CINH...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. 40-50KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELLULAR AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH WIND
DAMAGE MORE LIKELY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 081948
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-013-019-025-027-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-067-069-073-
079-081-085-091-095-097-099-103-105-109-117-119-125-133-145-147-
090200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0173.080408T1950Z-080409T0200Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS CALHOUN CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE
MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SEVIER WHITE
WOODRUFF


OKC089-090200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0173.080408T1950Z-080409T0200Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MCCURTAIN


TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-183-213-223-231-257-277-315-343-379-
387-423-449-459-467-499-090200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0173.080408T1950Z-080409T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
GREGG HENDERSON HOPKINS
HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR
MARION MORRIS RAINS
RED RIVER SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW3
WW 173 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 081950Z - 090200Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
65E LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/ - 70SW PRX/PARIS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /54E LIT - 37E DFW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

LAT...LON 33999108 32189630 33639630 35439108

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.


Watch 173 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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Re:

#206 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:07 pm

RL3AO wrote:Day 2 high risk? I say no, but we could get a 12z day 1 high risk which is still pretty rare.


A day 2 high risk has happened exactly once. (That was for April 7, 2006)
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Re: Re:

#207 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:08 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Day 2 high risk? I say no, but we could get a 12z day 1 high risk which is still pretty rare.


A day 2 high risk has happened exactly once. (That was for April 7, 2006)


That was the 60%H tornado day right?
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Re: Re:

#208 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:09 pm

RL3AO wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Day 2 high risk? I say no, but we could get a 12z day 1 high risk which is still pretty rare.


A day 2 high risk has happened exactly once. (That was for April 7, 2006)


That was the 60%H tornado day right?


Yep that is correct. There was a 60H on the 1730Z Day 2 map on April 6.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#209 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:09 pm

SPC rarely goes 'Moderate' on a SWODY3, so they are taking this seriously.
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#210 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:19 pm

Ah, have all a man needs. Beer, Tobac and Soccer. :roll:

... and S2K of course.
Last edited by Bunkertor on Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#211 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:20 pm

Reading that Bastardi blog also got me looking farther Northwest, towards SW Missouri and SW Kansas. WRF close-up loop from PSU e-Wall.

Decent instability and strong winds almost to Kansas City area Thursday afternoon...

Image
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Re: Re:

#212 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
A day 2 high risk has happened exactly once. (That was for April 7, 2006)

That was the 60%H tornado day right?

Yep that is correct. There was a 60H on the 1730Z Day 2 map on April 6.

Was that the tennessee/mississippi and alabama event?
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#213 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:26 pm

500 mb winds at 0z Friday.

Image
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Re:

#214 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:27 pm

RL3AO wrote:500 mb winds at 0z Friday.

Image

Thats got the jetstream pretty far to the west based on the MDT stuff for 0Z friday. That translates into 6 or 7pm CDT on thursday?
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Re: Re:

#215 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:39 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:Thats got the jetstream pretty far to the west based on the MDT stuff for 0Z friday. That translates into 6 or 7pm CDT on thursday?


Correct. But the 850 mb has the strongest shear over the MDT area. That would be the more important one.

Image
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#216 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:40 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX...INCLUDING SRN HILL
COUNTRY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082009Z - 082215Z

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SVR ACROSS
THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL STG-SVR
GUSTS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND LOW-DBZ REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE COLD
FRONT STILL MOVING SWD ACROSS SW TX...APCHG JCT BUT STARTING TO
DECELERATE IN ACCORDANCE WITH NUMEROUS EARLIER PROGS. FRONT MAY SAG
TO OR JUST S OF I-10 IN THAT AREA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD
10-15 KT OUT OF METROPLEX...THROUGH ACT/TPL AREAS AND PERHAPS TO AUS
BEFORE STALLING. STG SFC HEATING AND LOW-MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS
CHARACTERIZE ADJACENT MOIST SECTOR...THOUGH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEW
POINTS ARE ANALYZED FROM MATAGORDA BAY AREA NWD BETWEEN CLL-AUS.
MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET VERTICAL MIXING ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AT
LEAST LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO FRONT...WHERE
INITIATION IS MOST PROBABLE BEFORE 22Z. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND
PREFRONTAL DFW-AREA ACARS DATA EACH SUGGEST CAPPING LAYER IS
LIFTING/ERODING...A PROCESS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE S-SW OF METROPLEX
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING. MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG
SHOULD BECOME COMMON BY 21Z...AMIDST 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
DEEP-LAYER MEAN WIND VECTOR IS ORIENTED SLIGHTLY RIGHTWARD OF FRONT
INVOF I-35...AND PARALLEL TO FRONT SWWD OVER JCT REGION. THESE
FACTORS SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TEMPORARY SUPERCELLULAR
EVOLUTION...FOLLOWED WITH LINEAR/SEGMENTED DEVELOPMENT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS...VERY DRY AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MODE-DRIVEN
INDICATIONS OF AGGREGATED OUTFLOW EACH SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
COLD POOL DOMINANCE WITH TIME.

..EDWARDS.. 04/08/2008
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Re: Re:

#217 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:41 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
A day 2 high risk has happened exactly once. (That was for April 7, 2006)

That was the 60%H tornado day right?

Yep that is correct. There was a 60H on the 1730Z Day 2 map on April 6.

Was that the tennessee/mississippi and alabama event?


Yes that was.
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Re: Re:

#218 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
A day 2 high risk has happened exactly once. (That was for April 7, 2006)

That was the 60%H tornado day right?

Yep that is correct. There was a 60H on the 1730Z Day 2 map on April 6.

Was that the tennessee/mississippi and alabama event?


Yes that was.

Yeah I remember talking to you on AIM the day before and the day of the event.
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Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#219 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:56 pm

From NWS Paducah:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND DESTRUCTIVE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
COULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT
...WHEN THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TORNADOES...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS. REFER TO THE
LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL
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Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#220 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Apr 08, 2008 4:00 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Joe Bastardi goes beyond all our thinking and is predicting Super Outbreak II...

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.a ... 4-07_19:08


Hm, Jesse Pedia... Must be something like weather wiki
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