Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

[Ed Mahmoud]

Another busy day today?

[srainhoutx]

As well as Easter Sunday. SPC already mentioning a possible Moderate Risk in new 3 Day Outlook...



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S....

...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...

POWERFUL SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON EASTER SUNDAY AS STRONGEST
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE SERN-ERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...H5
FLOW OF 80-90KT....FROM EAST TX INTO NWRN MS.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONGLY DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE SCNTRL U.S. IN CONJUNCTION WITH RAPIDLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY
LAYER.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STRONG WARM ADVECTION...ALONG
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER VORT...WILL ENCOURAGE A BROAD ZONE OF
WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MUCH OF IT ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PROPAGATE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND
EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION BY 12Z MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION...CLEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WHERE INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT. ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY WILL BE AT A MINIMUM EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF
CNTRL TX...NWD TO THE RED RIVER. WITH TIME A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
WARM FRONT THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE BEYOND THE RED RIVER/ARKLATEX
DUE TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION. MODELS INSIST PRIMARY
SFC LOW WILL LAG SOMEWHAT OVER NCNTRL TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY TO BE GENERATED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN TX IN THE WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. IF MARITIME AIRMASS IS ABLE TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY
THEN A POTENTIALLY MORE VOLATILE SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN TX
INTO LA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TORNADOES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2009

[Ed Mahmoud]

8 am SWODY added hatching (>10% risk >EF-2 w/i 25 miles) to the tornado risk over much of Alabama and Georgia and part of Tennessee.

snip

... ...TN VLY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES...SRN APLCNS/CAROLINAS/SRN VA...
LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE/GPS PW DATA SHOW FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE /WITH PW AOA 1 INCH/ IN PLACE FROM THE
WRN/CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO THE TN VLY AND SRN KY. A TONGUE OF DRIER
AIR REMAINS PRESENT FROM FL NWD INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS...BUT A
SECONDARY AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE LIES OFF THE NC CST. MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST STATES
AND GA TODAY AS 40+ KT SWLY LLJ PERSISTS IN WARM SECTOR OF
PROGRESSIVE SFC LOW. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S F SHOULD
EXTEND FROM SRN LA INTO MUCH OF AL AND GA BY LATE TODAY.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH COOL MID LVL
TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT ON SRN FRINGE OF UPR LOW SHOULD SUPPORT
INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN
IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM WRN
KY/TN SSW INTO MS. OTHER INTENSE STORMS SHOULD FORM NEARLY
SIMULTANEOUSLY...OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LATER...INVOF AFOREMENTIONED
CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER ERN MS/AL/GA.

ALONG THE COLD FRONT...STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP FLOW
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT BROKEN BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH
HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. FARTHER ESE...
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW AND LONG...CLOCKWISE-TURNING
HODOGRAPHS WITH 60-70 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW COULD FOSTER NUMEROUS
DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
HEATING BOOSTS SFC TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 F. THESE STORMS COULD
YIELD A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
HIGH WIND. THIS THREAT APPEARS GREATEST FROM CNTRL/NRN AL INTO
CNTRL/NRN GA...PERHAPS AS FAR E AS WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT INVOF THE
SAVANNAH RVR VLY THIS EVE.
...

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a wild Easter weekend...

[Texas Snowman]

WFAA.com (Dallas) reports this morning that one of its former reporters was killed along with his wife yesterday when one of the Montague County (Tx) wildfires overtook their rural home. The couple's son is in fair condition at Parkland Hospital.

There are still several wildfires burning this morning with a stiff northerly breeze here in N. Texas.

I've lived here for 30 years since I was a kid and I don't ever remember more explosive wildfire eruptions than the ones we had yesterday. Followed by one tornado warning after another last night as the system progressed eastward.

[CrazyC83]

3 people killed in Mena.

http://www.fox16.com/news/local/story/3 ... px?rss=315

Damage suggests at least EF3, perhaps EF4.

[CrazyC83]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWLING
GREEN KENTUCKY TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST TO THE LWR OH VLY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN
AND WRN KY. STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WILL MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA OF THE
WATCH WITH MEMPHIS VWP INDICATING 70-75KT OF FLOW AT 2KM AGL.
THUS...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED WITH LINE
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS MOVING AT OVER 40KT. TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST NEAR BREAKS IN THE LINE AND ALONG/NEAR RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT ACROSS SECTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ALSO LIKELY AS CONVECTION MATURES AND TAPS
GREATER INSTABILITY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...CARBIN

[CrazyC83]

ALREADY storms developing back along the Mississippi. It's definitely not going to be a Good Friday there!

[srainhoutx]

ALREADY storms developing back along the Mississippi. It's definitely not going to be a Good Friday there!

[CrazyC83]

With all that clearing ahead, this does NOT look good.

[srainhoutx]

I know CrazyC83. Today looks to be another eventful day. Stay safe everyone.

[HURAKAN]

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 938 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ATWOOD...OR 8
MILES EAST OF MILAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HUNTINGDON...BRUCETON AND VALE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z WRF shows storms approaching Atlanta this evening.




Atlanta forecast sounding looks fairly ominous...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
947 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 947 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TROY...OR 8 MILES
WEST OF UNION CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MARTIN AND SOUTH FULTON. THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES REELFOOT LAKE.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
949 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
WESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 949 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BYHALIA...OR 8
MILES EAST OF OLIVE BRANCH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COLLIERVILLE...MT PLEASANT...SLAYDEN...WHITEVILLE...SOMERVILLE AND
LAGRANGE.

[srainhoutx]

First Tornado Warning...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
956 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 956 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HUNTINGDON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MCKENZIE...ROUTON...BRUCETON...VALE AND SPRINGVILLE.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1002 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 1002 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR UNION CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SOUTH
FULTON.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1006 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

TNC017-079-101545-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090410T1545Z/
CARROLL TN-HENRY TN-
1006 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
HENRY AND CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 959 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A WALL CLOUD ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF HUNTINGDON. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
HUNTINGDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GARRETSBURG...BUENA VISTA...HENRY...HOLLOW ROCK...MIXIE...BRUCETON...
ROUTON...CREWS STORE...EPHESUS...VALE...MANSFIELD...VAN DYKE...SPRING
CREEK...SUNNYSIDE...MANLEYVILLE...SPRINGVILLE...OLD SPRINGVILLE AND
HAIGLER RIDGE.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1007 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHWESTERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 1007 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FULTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FULTON BY 1015 AM CDT...

[CrazyC83]

Wow, this is getting started in a hurry! High risk at 1630Z?